2025 NBA Draft (2)

[Negrodamus]

This is not the equivalence of finishing last or near-last in every combine workout.

You're a smart poster. I don't think I need to explain to you how much young basketball players can change in 1 to 2 years.

"Are we sure this Joel Embiid guys is going to be better than Noah Vonleh? Noah (18.81 yrs at draft) is almost 2 years younger than Embiid (20.25 yrs at draft). Vonleh is scoring the same clip as Embiid, but is way better at rebound, has better FT shooting, and shoots 48% from three all while being younger!"

This is just one example, but thanks for the condescending post.

Sorry, was not trying to be an ****. I just think you've been turning a blind eye to all the Queen negatives and Ace positives, including the significant age discrepancy. Just like every other metric/stat, age is not the only indicator to project how good a player will be, but I think we have to acknowledge it here.

Why is Ace even being brought into a conversation about Derik Queen? I am actively avoiding talking about him.

And I have been plenty critical of Queen throughout the entire draft discussion. I've given proper **** over getting lazy on defense, inconsistent effort, ambitious passes. I feel like that's lost in the sauce because I'm critical of the guy that everyone is mocking to be our pick and is a statistical nightmare for what I value.

I clearly value different things about draft prospects than you do. I could be wrong. I'm completely okay with it.

[Black Mage]

Everyone is talking about pick 3, of course, but I'd like to talk about pick 35.
One player I would consider is Johni Broome. He turns 23 in July, but he's a 6' 9.25'' power forward with no shoes, great versatility around the basket and great footwork. He's a player who can perform right away.

I think I'd fall more into the Kalkbrenner camp over Broome. Need to watch some more; but guys I had flagged were John Tonje; Adou Theiro; Chaz Lanier.

[FireMorey]

Think greedy Ainge would trade a future unprotected first to move from 5 to 3?

[Jojothewhale]

Think greedy Ainge would trade a future unprotected first to move from 5 to 3?

I think Ainge is one of the most risk averse GMs out there in any major sport. I’d be floored if they made any serious offer to come up.

[Black Mage]

Think greedy Ainge would trade a future unprotected first to move from 5 to 3?

I think Ainge is one of the most risk averse GMs out there in any major sport. I’d be floored if they made any serious offer to come up.

I agree. Plus if he had use assets to trade up it makes his moves to blow the team up and tank look even worse and the fan base hate him more than it already does.

[eyeatoma]

Just looking at the stats alone:

Player A

He averaged almost 1.4 points per shot compared to 1.2, with a higher FTr, higher 3PTr, and clearly better shooting upside.

Defensively, I also think 1.7 steals and 1.0 blocks per game is a more promising profile than just 1.3 steals and 1.0 blocks.

Does not tell the entire picture. Need to know the archetype. Not points are equal. Is he getting it just merely on transition or creation?

Player A is Paul George’s freshman season at Fresno State.

If we’re gonna get hung up on 3.9 FTA in 34.6 MPG vs 3.6 FTA in 33.3 MPG then the anti-Ace crowd truly can’t be convinced.

Oh, its not just the FTA. Low efficiency (shot 53 TS% vs 58% for PG). Poor shot diet (low 3pt and FT volume). Is a bad passer (only 8 ast%). He’s inefficient black hole scorer with low feel for the game.

Im over Ace Bailey. I think a lot of it is covered in the other thread.

I dont consider him an option at all.

Get ready to be disappointed.

Sent from my SM-S938B using Tapatalk

[the_process]

Player A is Paul George’s freshman season at Fresno State.

If we’re gonna get hung up on 3.9 FTA in 34.6 MPG vs 3.6 FTA in 33.3 MPG then the anti-Ace crowd truly can’t be convinced.

Oh, its not just the FTA. Low efficiency (shot 53 TS% vs 58% for PG). Poor shot diet (low 3pt and FT volume). Is a bad passer (only 8 ast%). He’s inefficient black hole scorer with low feel for the game.

Im over Ace Bailey. I think a lot of it is covered in the other thread.

I dont consider him an option at all.

Get ready to be disappointed.

Sent from my SM-S938B using Tapatalk

Why? Based on any statistical analysis there's little chance Ace is really on Morey's radar.

[Negrodamus]

The best part will be when Morey trades this pick for Kevin Durant or something.

[eyeatoma]

Oh, its not just the FTA. Low efficiency (shot 53 TS% vs 58% for PG). Poor shot diet (low 3pt and FT volume). Is a bad passer (only 8 ast%). He’s inefficient black hole scorer with low feel for the game.

Im over Ace Bailey. I think a lot of it is covered in the other thread.

I dont consider him an option at all.

Get ready to be disappointed.

Sent from my SM-S938B using Tapatalk

Why? Based on any statistical analysis there's little chance Ace is really on Morey's radar.

Morey likes to go for star power as much as he can, and Ace has the highest upside. The others are at a position that we have an abundance of players at, and they won't be generational. Ace also fills a need, so when we add potential, plus need, it makes a lot more sense why Morey would go for this, as it checks two boxes. If you take BPA, given that there is no clear cut player, this makes it easier. We've also talked ad nauseam of how much noise there is with the advanced stats around Ace. Given how much we also talked about Embiid vs Jokic with regards to advanced stats (granted Embiid was no slouch), it should go without saying that advanced stats aren't the end all and be all of predicting player potential, and there can be anomalies. Just like many said that Embiid was more dominant than Jokic, and that he was a better scorer than Jokic, even though advanced stats didn't always say it, the eye test would often confirm what advanced stats couldn't prove.

[mjkvol]

Everyone is talking about pick 3, of course, but I'd like to talk about pick 35.
One player I would consider is Johni Broome. He turns 23 in July, but he's a 6' 9.25'' power forward with no shoes, great versatility around the basket and great footwork. He's a player who can perform right away.

Broome is an undersized low post center, a bad FT shooter, and has shown little ability to stretch the floor. He's a tough kid with a lot of attitude, and he's a solid rebounder at both ends who can block some shots, but IMO his NBA ceiling will be as a small ball 5 unless he can refine his perimeter game.

[eyeatoma]

The best part will be when Morey trades this pick for Kevin Durant or something.

If he does that, I'm done. Would be even worse than PG at his age and injury potential. If you do that you need to trade PG.

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

We should probably just ban dealing with Ainge in any capacity ever again.

[mjkvol]

We should probably just ban dealing with Ainge in any capacity ever again.

F***ck that, just be competent for a change and catch the little weasel in a spot where he's the more desperate party to make the deal.

[the_process]

Get ready to be disappointed.

Sent from my SM-S938B using Tapatalk

Why? Based on any statistical analysis there's little chance Ace is really on Morey's radar.

Morey likes to go for star power as much as he can, and Ace has the highest upside. The others are at a position that we have an abundance of players at, and they won't be generational. Ace also fills a need, so when we add potential, plus need, it makes a lot more sense why Morey would go for this, as it checks two boxes. If you take BPA, given that there is no clear cut player, this makes it easier. We've also talked ad nauseam of how much noise there is with the advanced stats around Ace. Given how much we also talked about Embiid vs Jokic with regards to advanced stats (granted Embiid was no slouch), it should go without saying that advanced stats aren't the end all and be all of predicting player potential, and there can be anomalies. Just like many said that Embiid was more dominant than Jokic, and that he was a better scorer than Jokic, even though advanced stats didn't always say it, the eye test would often confirm what advanced stats couldn't prove.

Daryl doesn't do "eye test". He might pay it lip service in a presser, but that's it. He's a robot. Stars have analytics that jump off the page and affect championships positively and meaningfully. Bailey has none of that. He has a lot of hype, primarily because he's a wing with flashy YouTube clips in a league starved of wings.

The Sixers also plan on pretending to the fullest that Joel will be available and this team is going to contend for a title. And Nurse isn't going trust Bailey with PT until there's no playoffs left to chase.

Also, please no more talk of Jokic-Embiid comparisons. It's done, history has spoken.

[the_process]

We should probably just ban dealing with Ainge in any capacity ever again.

F***ck that, just be competent for a change and catch the little weasel in a spot where he's the more desperate party to make the deal.

This could be one of those spots, frankly. He has to get a centerpiece, or someone he can hype as a centerpiece. Lauri ain't it, and I like Lauri.

[Negrodamus]

Oh, its not just the FTA. Low efficiency (shot 53 TS% vs 58% for PG). Poor shot diet (low 3pt and FT volume). Is a bad passer (only 8 ast%). He’s inefficient black hole scorer with low feel for the game.

Im over Ace Bailey. I think a lot of it is covered in the other thread.

I dont consider him an option at all.

Get ready to be disappointed.

Sent from my SM-S938B using Tapatalk

Why? Based on any statistical analysis there's little chance Ace is really on Morey's radar.

I couldn’t be happier that an analytical focused mind is making the pick this year. Even if he picks Ace, it’ll come from a position of reason instead of him being long, being able to shoot difficult shots, and having hype coming into college which has maintained some momentum into the draft.

[Arsenal]

Interesting thread on Sixers reddit re: top prospect RAPM that will make Negro's head explode deciding whether to use this data or not!



And here's hardcore analytic evidence of Ace Bailey's positive impact on the floor. Will wait patiently for the ADS afflicted to spin this away:

Still, it's interesting that Ace Bailey is basically the one exception. His net rating data is hilarious. Rutgers's net rating improves by +12 to +20.4 with him on the court, depending on whether or not you adjust for strength of schedule. For reference, Cooper Flagg's on/off is +3.3 to +6.4, depending on the adjustment.

Sam Vecenie mentioned that against conference opponents Rutgers were -2 or -3 in 100 possessions with Bailey. That number drop to -20 when he was off court. So, for some magical reason, when Bailey was on the court, his team could compete. When he was off the court, his team got destroyed. Sounds like Embiid. lol

https://www.reddit.com/r/sixers/comments/1kxoxwn/rapm_for_consensus_top10_prospects_vs_top_100/

[eyeatoma]

Why? Based on any statistical analysis there's little chance Ace is really on Morey's radar.

Morey likes to go for star power as much as he can, and Ace has the highest upside. The others are at a position that we have an abundance of players at, and they won't be generational. Ace also fills a need, so when we add potential, plus need, it makes a lot more sense why Morey would go for this, as it checks two boxes. If you take BPA, given that there is no clear cut player, this makes it easier. We've also talked ad nauseam of how much noise there is with the advanced stats around Ace. Given how much we also talked about Embiid vs Jokic with regards to advanced stats (granted Embiid was no slouch), it should go without saying that advanced stats aren't the end all and be all of predicting player potential, and there can be anomalies. Just like many said that Embiid was more dominant than Jokic, and that he was a better scorer than Jokic, even though advanced stats didn't always say it, the eye test would often confirm what advanced stats couldn't prove.

Daryl doesn't do "eye test". He might pay it lip service in a presser, but that's it. He's a robot. Stars have analytics that jump off the page and affect championships positively and meaningfully. Bailey has none of that. He has a lot of hype, primarily because he's a wing with flashy YouTube clips in a league starved of wings.

The Sixers also plan on pretending to the fullest that Joel will be available and this team is going to contend for a title. And Nurse isn't going trust Bailey with PT until there's no playoffs left to chase.

Also, please no more talk of Jokic-Embiid comparisons. It's done, history has spoken.

History has spoken that Embiid was incredibly injury prone, which clearly impacted our comparison of the two. When healthy he was as good, if not better (see the year he was injured and on the way to a unanimous MVP). Sure he had a bad attitude in his later years, but I give him a bit of a pass given how **** this organisation and the media/fans have been about him.

[Negrodamus]

Interesting thread on Sixers reddit re: top prospect RAPM that will make Negro's head explode deciding whether to use this data or not!



And here's hardcore analytic evidence of Ace Bailey's positive impact on the floor. Will wait patiently for the ADS afflicted to spin this away:

Still, it's interesting that Ace Bailey is basically the one exception. His net rating data is hilarious. Rutgers's net rating improves by +12 to +20.4 with him on the court, depending on whether or not you adjust for strength of schedule. For reference, Cooper Flagg's on/off is +3.3 to +6.4, depending on the adjustment.

Sam Vecenie mentioned that against conference opponents Rutgers were -2 or -3 in 100 possessions with Bailey. That number drop to -20 when he was off court. So, for some magical reason, when Bailey was on the court, his team could compete. When he was off the court, his team got destroyed. Sounds like Embiid. lol

https://www.reddit.com/r/sixers/comments/1kxoxwn/rapm_for_consensus_top10_prospects_vs_top_100/

Saw it, here was my favorite comment:

Does RAPM even matter for evaluating college prospects? I looked at previous years and frankly there's a huge mix of both busts and guys who worked out with high RAPM

Now if you go back and find every all star from the past ten drafts and they all fall within Ace’s statistical range, I’ll definitely pick the pieces of my brain and skull off the ceiling.

[the_process]

Morey likes to go for star power as much as he can, and Ace has the highest upside. The others are at a position that we have an abundance of players at, and they won't be generational. Ace also fills a need, so when we add potential, plus need, it makes a lot more sense why Morey would go for this, as it checks two boxes. If you take BPA, given that there is no clear cut player, this makes it easier. We've also talked ad nauseam of how much noise there is with the advanced stats around Ace. Given how much we also talked about Embiid vs Jokic with regards to advanced stats (granted Embiid was no slouch), it should go without saying that advanced stats aren't the end all and be all of predicting player potential, and there can be anomalies. Just like many said that Embiid was more dominant than Jokic, and that he was a better scorer than Jokic, even though advanced stats didn't always say it, the eye test would often confirm what advanced stats couldn't prove.

Daryl doesn't do "eye test". He might pay it lip service in a presser, but that's it. He's a robot. Stars have analytics that jump off the page and affect championships positively and meaningfully. Bailey has none of that. He has a lot of hype, primarily because he's a wing with flashy YouTube clips in a league starved of wings.

The Sixers also plan on pretending to the fullest that Joel will be available and this team is going to contend for a title. And Nurse isn't going trust Bailey with PT until there's no playoffs left to chase.

Also, please no more talk of Jokic-Embiid comparisons. It's done, history has spoken.

History has spoken that Embiid was incredibly injury prone, which clearly impacted our comparison of the two. When healthy he was as good, if not better (see the year he was injured and on the way to a unanimous MVP). Sure he had a bad attitude in his later years, but I give him a bit of a pass given how **** this organisation and the media/fans have been about him.

Part of his injury proneness was self inflicted.

He's probably a HOFer.

I just personally am completely over him and would like him either traded or medically retired ASAP.