2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft

[Black Mage]

On an unrelated note, regardless who we pick I am going to be psyched for summer league!

[M2J]

On an unrelated note, regardless who we pick I am going to be psyched for summer league!

Was thinking the same thing. But especially if it's Ace or Tre or Harper (because the Spurs prove to be smarter than everyone again and draft Ace).

[76ciology]

You can’t draft players without a deep understanding of how the game is evolving. Okafor’s college numbers looked impressive, strong post scoring, efficient around the basket, but post-ups are arguably the least valuable type of scoring in today’s NBA.

In his rookie year, he averaged 17 PPG on 50% FG, which looks solid on paper. But dig deeper and you find a 53% True Shooting percentage, well below the league average, especially for a big.

With him as the focal point of an offense, which you need to do or else he’s useless, his team’s scoring just couldn’t keep pace with the efficiency and versatility required in modern offenses.

If there’s anything I learned, its you cant just look at the numbers and mockdrafts to built your value on a certain player.

[Arsenal]

Don’t overthink it, you’re not that good at thinking anyway!

So just take the BPA!!!

[Arsenal]

I want Ace or trade down for Noa. Get that big wing!

[Arsenal]

If I recall, Malauch’s zero rebound game came 24 hours after he learned he might be deported.

“ But the day of Duke's Final Four game against Houston, the US announced they were revoking all visas of South Sudanese passport holders. That meant Maluach could be deported, despite going to school and earning a living in the U.S. Naturally, he had his worst game of the year in Duke's 3-point loss to the Cougars.Apr 11, 2025”

So not just physically soft, but mentally soft too.

SOFT

[Jailblazers7]

If I recall, Malauch’s zero rebound game came 24 hours after he learned he might be deported.

“ But the day of Duke's Final Four game against Houston, the US announced they were revoking all visas of South Sudanese passport holders. That meant Maluach could be deported, despite going to school and earning a living in the U.S. Naturally, he had his worst game of the year in Duke's 3-point loss to the Cougars.Apr 11, 2025”

So not just physically soft, but mentally soft too.

SOFT

Ok let’s maybe give the 18 year old kid a little grace here.

[sodmoraes]

Sometimes when i read this board i remember of this series...

[Mik317]

i don't hate Ace.

The IDEA of Ace is something I have wanted forever. Tracy McGrady is one of my favorite players of all time. That archetype is just pure basketball to me.

I don't claim to be a supreme basketball mind either HOWEVA I have been reading up on prospects forever now; its one of my favorite parts of the NBA...and one thing I have noticed is that while when the consensus on a guy is positive, that means nothing...because **** can happen...but generally when there is a lot of open skepticism...it tends to come true sadly. I don't remember many a prospect as divisive as Ace (my memory is ass tbf) than ended up proving da haterz wrong. I remember being so adamant about Ben's haters (ironically Givony who loves Ace was one of them) and damn near all of it ended up being true lol.

And honestly unlike Ben who I overlooked all of the negatives lol, I also see the exact reasons people hate Ace too and yeah its there. The bad first step is the most glaring as thats the one thing you really can't improve on...so the tough shot making is less of a skill and more of a necessity...which we have seen is hard to make your bones off of consistently and we have one of the best tough shot makers in the world.

SO its not hate from me....just being an old man who has seen things to the point I am shook. We really have to HIT on this pick man. Its such a gift to be picking high in the draft..and for me Ace has too many things to overcome to be great and our track record doesn't bode well for that.

[MVP1992]

Sometimes when i read this board i remember of this series...

What is happening with his eyes? Bad photo, or

[FireMorey]

There is skepticism with every prospect though. VJ has skepticism. Tre has skepticism. I haven't seen anyone who thinks VJ is going to be a superstar offensive player. Even his biggest fans think he'll be a defensive monster who can hit open jumpers and attack closeouts and play above the rim. But not be a guy who will score at a high volume. And I'm sorry, but I'm not taking a player #3 in any draft who does not have superstar offensive potential. And VJ just doesn't have it. I think VJ is a safer pick than Bailey and Bailey has higher bust potential, but there's no question as a scorer Bailey has a higher ceiling than VJ.

And Tre there's skepticism about his defense, his lack of team oriented style of play, and whether he'll just be a Kuzma or Nick Young type in the NBA. An inefficient offensive player who just takes a lot of shots.

Unless Harper falls, you aren't getting a prospect without skepticism at 3.

[76ciology]

Let’s talk about Ace Bailey’s upside and floor.. and why I’m skeptical.

When we project Ace’s ceiling, it revolves around his potential as an isolation scorer. There are two paths to elite iso scoring:
1.Creating separation
2.Shooting over defenders

The concern starts with his measurements. He came in at 6’7”, which isn’t small, but it limits his ability to consistently shoot over elite NBA wing defenders guys like Jaden McDaniels, OG Anunoby, or Jalen Williams. Shoot over Kelly Oubre or Paul George? At that height, without elite elevation or length, it’s hard to be a reliable shot-maker over contests.

Then there’s the separation issue. His ball-handling just isn’t where it needs to be. Watch the tape, he’s very right-hand dominant, and his dribble packages are basic. He struggles to get clean looks against even decent defenders.

You can argue, “He’s only 18,” but the bar for self-creation in the NBA is extremely high. Specially for a wing because thats the position where most defenders are. Just watch the play-offs. The gap between where he is now and where he needs to be to succeed as a primary scorer is massive. He lacks the ball handling to create and pass, lacks the freakish height to shoot over, and I personally think he has poor basketball IQ.

I was going to drop some clips of Tatum or MPJ in high school, but I’ll keep it simple.. Have you ever heard concerns about Tatum or MPJ handle at that age? No. Because even then, they showed polish. I honestly can’t name a single elite iso wing scorer who had a bad handle in high school and turned it around at the NBA level.

Now let’s talk floor. The common argument is “he’ll be a 3&D guy.” But even that is risky. He shot 34.6% from three and only 69% from the line. Those numbers is NOT projectable to be a “reliable shooter.”

Defensively, yes, he has tools. But he’s 200 lbs and will be guarding grown 3&4. On film, he’s inconsistent, he’ll flash with a big block, then lose focus and give up a backdoor layup the next play.

If you think “this pick is important”, then he shouldn’t be the guy.

Ace Bailey is only the pick if you view this as a bonus that we can make a high-risk swing for star upside, despite all the odds against it. Otherwise, it’s just too many red flags.

Why is his skill set still this limited? Is it a matter of poor work ethic, or is he simply not improving despite putting in the work? Either way, isn’t it a risky bet to assume he’ll ever reach his upside?

Yes, every prospect comes with risk, but some carry significantly more than others.

I’d rather bet on Tre Johnson would care on defense, with his 6’10” wingspan and athleticism.

I’d rather bet on Khaman Maluach becoming a reliable rebounder with shooting upside, especially given how rapidly he’s been improving.

I’d rather bet that Kasparas Jakucionis’ shooting slump was injury-related, and his shot creation and playmaking will translate into the pros.

It’s all about weighing which risks are most worth taking, and these feel like smarter bets.

[Stanford]

Could Siakam be Ace's ceiling?

[Evil Twin]

So 2 aging greats whose final situations might be determined by our #3 pick, Paul George and Durant, both express enthusiasm for Ace Bailey. The guy who Collins refused to draft, Boogey, who was the most talented player in his draft, and played the position we were most in need of upgrading, also looks at Ace Bailey as a likely generational talent. Bailey, of course, happens to play a position we are now greatly in need of upgrading. I’m not convinced that the Spurs are really going to grab Harper, given it is the one position they are most flush in. And they are in position to acquire the Freak, as the Bucks, in turn, might best be served by replacing him with Bailey, saving Philly management and fans the angst of passing over the prospect with the highest ceiling. The ability to jump over anyone and knock them down from all over is a most rare talent. Coupled with the size and timing to block anyone driving to the hole. I can see why he is such a pariah.

[Kobblehead]

I think I'm firmly locked in at Tre Johnson being my preference at #3.

Trying to figure out who my #2 would be.

Which combination of traits is more appealing for us?

Ace's length and athleticism or Kon's shooting and size?

[BNelley24]

I want Ace or trade down for Noa. Get that big wing!

Yea I’m an Ace guy. We’re not winning a title next year and we don’t have any guarantee on Embiid. Just load up for the future with the highest ceiling player or trade back and get some extra picks for next year or whenever

[Stanford]

So 2 aging greats whose final situations might be determined by our #3 pick, Paul George and Durant, both express enthusiasm for Ace Bailey. The guy who Collins refused to draft, Boogey, who was the most talented player in his draft, and played the position we were most in need of upgrading, also looks at Ace Bailey as a likely generational talent. Bailey, of course, happens to play a position we are now greatly in need of upgrading. I’m not convinced that the Spurs are really going to grab Harper, given it is the one position they are most flush in. And they are in position to acquire the Freak, as the Bucks, in turn, might best be served by replacing him with Bailey, saving Philly management and fans the angst of passing over the prospect with the highest ceiling. The ability to jump over anyone and knock them down from all over is a most rare talent. Coupled with the size and timing to block anyone driving to the hole. I can see why he is such a pariah.

SUSPICIOUS

[FireMorey]

I think I'm firmly locked in at Tre Johnson being my preference at #3.

Trying to figure out who my #2 would be.

Which combination of traits is more appealing for us?

Ace's length and athleticism or Kon's shooting and size?

If the Sixers want Tre Johnson they should not take him at 3. Trade down to 5 or 6 for him to a team who missed out on the top 3 and pick up a future first round pick and possibly more. Or if it's Utah pick up 21st pick possibly. Have to use this pick to extract as much value out of it as possible.

[mjkvol]

If you think “this pick is important”, then he shouldn’t be the guy.

Great overall post, but this comment jumped out to me. All I've seen here over the time that we got the #5 spot in the lottery to getting the #3 pick and ever since is how crucial it was to the franchise that we 1. keep the pick, and 2. how vital it is to 'get it right'.

It just seems odd that so many on here preaching about the incredible importance of hitting on this pick are so hell bent on taking one of the most boom or bust prospects we've seen since ... ever. It's like betting the mortgage on filling an inside straight or hitting on 17 - is the high risk worth the slight chance that Bailey will be a superstar or even an all-star level player?

I really hope that Morey gets a deal to move back and grab additional picks, because this is the classic deep draft with only a couple of "sure thing" players at the top.

[Evil Twin]

SUSPICIOUS

Ah, yes. What evil lurks in the heart of men?