2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft

[76ciology]

If you think “this pick is important”, then he shouldn’t be the guy.

Great overall post, but this comment jumped out to me. All I've seen here over the time that we got the #5 spot in the lottery to getting the #3 pick and ever since is how crucial it was to the franchise that we 1. keep the pick, and 2. how vital it is to 'get it right'.

It just seems odd that so many on here preaching about the incredible importance of hitting on this pick are so hell bent on taking one of the most boom or bust prospects we've seen since ... ever. It's like betting the mortgage on filling an inside straight or hitting on 17 - is the high risk worth the slight chance that Bailey will be a superstar or even an all-star level player?

I really hope that Morey gets a deal to move back and grab additional picks, because this is the classic deep draft with only a couple of "sure thing" players at the top.

I see this pick as a chance to land our version of Jalen Williams or Chet Holmgren, not our SGA. The opportunity to draft a true franchise cornerstone to replace Embiid will come, but I don’t think this is that moment.

If we focus on finding our Williams or Holmgren, we’d be maximizing the value of this pick relative to it’s expected value (probability x ceiling) rather than chasing a very low probability upside swing.

[76ciology]

I think I'm firmly locked in at Tre Johnson being my preference at #3.

Trying to figure out who my #2 would be.

Which combination of traits is more appealing for us?

Ace's length and athleticism or Kon's shooting and size?

If the Sixers want Tre Johnson they should not take him at 3. Trade down to 5 or 6 for him to a team who missed out on the top 3 and pick up a future first round pick and possibly more. Or if it's Utah pick up 21st pick possibly. Have to use this pick to extract as much value out of it as possible.

Yes, but the first step is finding a team that’s genuinely high on Ace. From what I’ve seen, most teams seem to view Tre, VJ, and Ace as being in the same tier.

[Evil Twin]

I see this pick as a chance to land our version of Jalen Williams or Chet Holmgren, not our SGA. The opportunity to draft a true franchise cornerstone to replace Embiid will come, but I don’t think this is that moment.

If I recall, SGA was available to us at 10, but we passed him up for Bridges. Who Brett then traded for Zhaire Smith and a pick, because that draft was not the opportunity to acquire a true franchise cornerstone, so best go for useful assets. (And, yeah, #3 yielded Doncic.)

By all means, let’s pass on someone with a high ceiling, who fits a position of need, and wait on the 100% guarantee who will surely be available to us in next year’s draft.

[youngcrev]

Stay at 3 for now on the off chance Harper doesn't go 2, if he does then slide back to 5 for one of Ainge's many future 1sts.

[76ciology]

I see this pick as a chance to land our version of Jalen Williams or Chet Holmgren, not our SGA. The opportunity to draft a true franchise cornerstone to replace Embiid will come, but I don’t think this is that moment.

If I recall, SGA was available to us at 10, but we passed him up for Bridges. Who Brett then traded for Zhaire Smith and a pick, because that draft was not the opportunity to acquire a true franchise cornerstone, so best go for useful assets. (And, yeah, #3 yielded Doncic.)

By all means, let’s pass on someone with a high ceiling, who fits a position of need, and wait on the 100% guarantee who will surely be available to us in next year’s draft.

Then we need to trade for the 40th pick because Jokic might be there

Ace Bailey is nowhere near as close as SGA as a prospect. SGA’s numbers checks out, archetype and he has elite physical tools.

[FireMorey]

Let’s talk about Ace Bailey’s upside and floor.. and why I’m skeptical.

When we project Ace’s ceiling, it revolves around his potential as an isolation scorer. There are two paths to elite iso scoring:
1.Creating separation
2.Shooting over defenders

The concern starts with his measurements. He came in at 6’7”, which isn’t small, but it limits his ability to consistently shoot over elite NBA wing defenders guys like Jaden McDaniels, OG Anunoby, or Jalen Williams. Shoot over Kelly Oubre or Paul George? At that height, without elite elevation or length, it’s hard to be a reliable shot-maker over contests.

Then there’s the separation issue. His ball-handling just isn’t where it needs to be. Watch the tape, he’s very right-hand dominant, and his dribble packages are basic. He struggles to get clean looks against even decent defenders.

You can argue, “He’s only 18,” but the bar for self-creation in the NBA is extremely high. Specially for a wing because thats the position where most defenders are. Just watch the play-offs. The gap between where he is now and where he needs to be to succeed as a primary scorer is massive. He lacks the ball handling to create and pass, lacks the freakish height to shoot over, and I personally think he has poor basketball IQ.

I was going to drop some clips of Tatum or MPJ in high school, but I’ll keep it simple.. Have you ever heard concerns about Tatum or MPJ handle at that age? No. Because even then, they showed polish. I honestly can’t name a single elite iso wing scorer who had a bad handle in high school and turned it around at the NBA level.

Now let’s talk floor. The common argument is “he’ll be a 3&D guy.” But even that is risky. He shot 34.6% from three and only 69% from the line. Those numbers is NOT projectable to be a “reliable shooter.”

Defensively, yes, he has tools. But he’s 200 lbs and will be guarding grown 3&4. On film, he’s inconsistent, he’ll flash with a big block, then lose focus and give up a backdoor layup the next play.

If you think “this pick is important”, then he shouldn’t be the guy.

Ace Bailey is only the pick if you view this as a bonus that we can make a high-risk swing for star upside, despite all the odds against it. Otherwise, it’s just too many red flags.

Why is his skill set still this limited? Is it a matter of poor work ethic, or is he simply not improving despite putting in the work? Either way, isn’t it a risky bet to assume he’ll ever reach his upside?

Yes, every prospect comes with risk, but some carry significantly more than others.

I’d rather bet on Tre Johnson would care on defense, with his 6’10” wingspan and athleticism.

I’d rather bet on Khaman Maluach becoming a reliable rebounder with shooting upside, especially given how rapidly he’s been improving.

I’d rather bet that Kasparas Jakucionis’ shooting slump was injury-related, and his shot creation and playmaking will translate into the pros.

It’s all about weighing which risks are most worth taking, and these feel like smarter bets.

Have to remember just because us outsiders view Bailey as a risk doesn't mean NBA teams or the Sixers do. The Sixers might love him for all we know and have a different view of him than anyone else. No one saw Jared McCain being the best rookie in the NBA(before he got hurt) coming. Some were higher on him than others, but no one saw that coming. Sometimes the player these prospects turn out to be is something no one saw coming. Dillingham looked like a stud in college and he can't even get on the court for Minny.

Can't discount the possibility that the Sixers could draft Bailey and he gets on a court and just looks way better than he did in college. Displays better handle, shoots a higher %, etc.

[Arsenal]

Let’s talk about Ace Bailey’s upside and floor.. and why I’m skeptical.

When we project Ace’s ceiling, it revolves around his potential as an isolation scorer. There are two paths to elite iso scoring:
1.Creating separation
2.Shooting over defenders

The concern starts with his measurements. He came in at 6’7”, which isn’t small, but it limits his ability to consistently shoot over elite NBA wing defenders guys like Jaden McDaniels, OG Anunoby, or Jalen Williams. Shoot over Kelly Oubre or Paul George? At that height, without elite elevation or length, it’s hard to be a reliable shot-maker over contests.

Then there’s the separation issue. His ball-handling just isn’t where it needs to be. Watch the tape, he’s very right-hand dominant, and his dribble packages are basic. He struggles to get clean looks against even decent defenders.

You can argue, “He’s only 18,” but the bar for self-creation in the NBA is extremely high. Specially for a wing because thats the position where most defenders are. Just watch the play-offs. The gap between where he is now and where he needs to be to succeed as a primary scorer is massive. He lacks the ball handling to create and pass, lacks the freakish height to shoot over, and I personally think he has poor basketball IQ.

I was going to drop some clips of Tatum or MPJ in high school, but I’ll keep it simple.. Have you ever heard concerns about Tatum or MPJ handle at that age? No. Because even then, they showed polish. I honestly can’t name a single elite iso wing scorer who had a bad handle in high school and turned it around at the NBA level.

Now let’s talk floor. The common argument is “he’ll be a 3&D guy.” But even that is risky. He shot 34.6% from three and only 69% from the line. Those numbers is NOT projectable to be a “reliable shooter.”

Defensively, yes, he has tools. But he’s 200 lbs and will be guarding grown 3&4. On film, he’s inconsistent, he’ll flash with a big block, then lose focus and give up a backdoor layup the next play.

If you think “this pick is important”, then he shouldn’t be the guy.

Ace Bailey is only the pick if you view this as a bonus that we can make a high-risk swing for star upside, despite all the odds against it. Otherwise, it’s just too many red flags.

Why is his skill set still this limited? Is it a matter of poor work ethic, or is he simply not improving despite putting in the work? Either way, isn’t it a risky bet to assume he’ll ever reach his upside?

Yes, every prospect comes with risk, but some carry significantly more than others.

I’d rather bet on Tre Johnson would care on defense, with his 6’10” wingspan and athleticism.

I’d rather bet on Khaman Maluach becoming a reliable rebounder with shooting upside, especially given how rapidly he’s been improving.

I’d rather bet that Kasparas Jakucionis’ shooting slump was injury-related, and his shot creation and playmaking will translate into the pros.

It’s all about weighing which risks are most worth taking, and these feel like smarter bets.

TL;DR

Don't overthink it bruh!

[Black Mage]

Let’s talk about Ace Bailey’s upside and floor.. and why I’m skeptical.

When we project Ace’s ceiling, it revolves around his potential as an isolation scorer. There are two paths to elite iso scoring:
1.Creating separation
2.Shooting over defenders

The concern starts with his measurements. He came in at 6’7”, which isn’t small, but it limits his ability to consistently shoot over elite NBA wing defenders guys like Jaden McDaniels, OG Anunoby, or Jalen Williams. Shoot over Kelly Oubre or Paul George? At that height, without elite elevation or length, it’s hard to be a reliable shot-maker over contests.

Then there’s the separation issue. His ball-handling just isn’t where it needs to be. Watch the tape, he’s very right-hand dominant, and his dribble packages are basic. He struggles to get clean looks against even decent defenders.

You can argue, “He’s only 18,” but the bar for self-creation in the NBA is extremely high. Specially for a wing because thats the position where most defenders are. Just watch the play-offs. The gap between where he is now and where he needs to be to succeed as a primary scorer is massive. He lacks the ball handling to create and pass, lacks the freakish height to shoot over, and I personally think he has poor basketball IQ.

I was going to drop some clips of Tatum or MPJ in high school, but I’ll keep it simple.. Have you ever heard concerns about Tatum or MPJ handle at that age? No. Because even then, they showed polish. I honestly can’t name a single elite iso wing scorer who had a bad handle in high school and turned it around at the NBA level.

Now let’s talk floor. The common argument is “he’ll be a 3&D guy.” But even that is risky. He shot 34.6% from three and only 69% from the line. Those numbers is NOT projectable to be a “reliable shooter.”

Defensively, yes, he has tools. But he’s 200 lbs and will be guarding grown 3&4. On film, he’s inconsistent, he’ll flash with a big block, then lose focus and give up a backdoor layup the next play.

If you think “this pick is important”, then he shouldn’t be the guy.

Ace Bailey is only the pick if you view this as a bonus that we can make a high-risk swing for star upside, despite all the odds against it. Otherwise, it’s just too many red flags.

Why is his skill set still this limited? Is it a matter of poor work ethic, or is he simply not improving despite putting in the work? Either way, isn’t it a risky bet to assume he’ll ever reach his upside?

Yes, every prospect comes with risk, but some carry significantly more than others.

I’d rather bet on Tre Johnson would care on defense, with his 6’10” wingspan and athleticism.

I’d rather bet on Khaman Maluach becoming a reliable rebounder with shooting upside, especially given how rapidly he’s been improving.

I’d rather bet that Kasparas Jakucionis’ shooting slump was injury-related, and his shot creation and playmaking will translate into the pros.

It’s all about weighing which risks are most worth taking, and these feel like smarter bets.

I do not see him as just an isolation scorer and I believe that is where you're analysis falls apart from the jump. Bailey shot 38.7% on catch and shoot 3's and 43.9% on guarded catch and shoot 3's. Even if Bailey never fully develops a handle; he's still providing elite gravity and spacing with his jumper. You also declare he has to come in as a primary scorer; but he doesn't. We have Maxey and McCain and PG and Joel (maybe???). Why is it Maluach doesn't have to be relied upon for anything, but Ace has to be a ready-made star from the jump?

https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/1jm1d4u/tre_johnson_ace_bailey_shooting_breakdown/

You're entire post is littered with your anti-ace bias. Did you even read back on scouting reports about Jayson Tatum? Just google Tatum handle in college and let's see...

Not a great first step, handle needs some work, not as explosive as you'd like in a wing. Here was one scouting report on Tatum:

"In these situations, defenders would mostly go under the ball screen, and he frequently would not make them pay with his pull up when this happened … Tatum also was guarded mostly by power forwards, so there are concerns about whether he will be able to create offense as effectively against NBA caliber wing players … His handle can be tightened, as he plays a bit too upright with the ball, making him less explosive … He does not have great burst from a stand still position, which causes him to struggle getting to the rim, and he has trouble finishing against top tier length and athleticism … "

Your criticisms of Ace could almost be plagiarized from the criticisms of Tatum.

Now let me get to your MPJ comment of "did we have concerns in college" statement. What game tapes did you watch, was it game 1, 2 or 3? Because that's all he played in for college. Now let's google MPJ "handle..." Oh look, passable but not elite. Handle needs work, struggles past a couple of initial dribbles. Lacks explosive first step because of handle. Turns the ball over frequently in traffic b/c of his handle. https://www.dimedrop.net/playerdeepdives/mpj. I'll give you that Porter had a more physically developed body which helped him with finishing at the rim; but nothing to date says Ace can't put weight on that frame and fill out.

Tre: He'd be my pick if he could play defense; but he physically cant. If you watch his H.S. tape and college tape it becomes quite clear he lacks the lateral side to side agility and quick twitch hips to react to faster guards/wings. Filling out his frame with more weight isn't going to help that either. This is more of a subjective evaluation, defense is a "mentality" a player either has or doesn't have. I can't think of the last college player that cared so little about playing defense that suddenly flipped a switch to give effort on that end in the pro's. I don't even begin to comprehend how you think a guy who hasn't tried on defense in H.S. and College suddenly fixes that issue in the NBA. But you're gonna give him the benefit of the doubt while rejecting any possibility Ace improves on things he does, just doesn't do as well as you want him to do them.

Maluach: His 18% rebound rate (buoyed by an unsustainable 16+% OREB rate) is just 6% higher than Ace's 12.2%. Defensively, Ace is 2% behind Maluach despite being 5-7 inches shorter and playing as a wing. Again, you blindly believe Maluach has shooting upside despite being a negative at this point from range; meanwhile you declare Ace can't improve his handle despite it being a neutral or slightly above neutral skill.

Kaspar: I'm not even going to bother if you're criticizing Ace for his athleticism/size but this guy is on your list.

[76ciology]

Have to remember just because us outsiders view Bailey as a risk doesn't mean NBA teams or the Sixers do. The Sixers might love him for all we know and have a different view of him than anyone else. No one saw Jared McCain being the best rookie in the NBA(before he got hurt) coming. Some were higher on him than others, but no one saw that coming. Sometimes the player these prospects turn out to be is something no one saw coming. Dillingham looked like a stud in college and he can't even get on the court for Minny.

Can't discount the possibility that the Sixers could draft Bailey and he gets on a court and just looks way better than he did in college. Displays better handle, shoots a higher %, etc.

For sure. Danny Wolf can end up being Jokic 2.0 too.

My point is that Ace Bailey has both a low probability of reaching his ceiling and a low floor. You mentioned from our team’s perspective we might value him highly, Morey prioritizes efficient scorers, and Bailey doesn’t project as one. His true shooting percentage (53%), effective field goal percentage (51%), and finishing at the rim are all below par. On top of that, shooting 34% from 3 and 69% from the line is a below average foundation for developing into a good reliable shooter.

Regarding Jared McCain, his numbers checks out. He even has 61 TS%. The problem is he’s a boring prospect because of his size and how his role was with Duke (similar to Maluach’s situation now)

If I have to GUESS who our front office is high on, it would be Maluach and KK.

Maluach checks a lot of boxes.. elite scoring efficiency (73 TS%, 75 FT%), elite offensive rebounding (generate extra possessions; 16 OREB%), an NBA-ready frame at 250 lbs with great length, 147 ORtg with 94DRtg and upside with growth rate worthy of a top-3 pick (added 50 lbs in 2 years among others). Yeah, Morey also was in attendance in his workout.

KK likely appeals due to his strong efficiency (64 TS%), elite impact metrics (10 BPM), NBA ready body, NBA ready IQ and the second-highest WARP in the class behind Cooper Flagg.

Just my GUESS

[mjkvol]

Stay at 3 for now on the off chance Harper doesn't go 2, if he does then slide back to 5 for one of Ainge's many future 1sts.

It's essential to keep the pick until SA makes their decision with #2. If Harper is still there at #3 it's a no brainier, and if it's Ace you will already have any deal already agreed to and just pull the trigger. I would be shocked (shocked!) if there aren't 2-3 teams minimum who view Ace as the guy and would love to trade up. If not, Morey just needs to let the chips fall and pick the guy he likes.

[FireMorey]

Have to remember just because us outsiders view Bailey as a risk doesn't mean NBA teams or the Sixers do. The Sixers might love him for all we know and have a different view of him than anyone else. No one saw Jared McCain being the best rookie in the NBA(before he got hurt) coming. Some were higher on him than others, but no one saw that coming. Sometimes the player these prospects turn out to be is something no one saw coming. Dillingham looked like a stud in college and he can't even get on the court for Minny.

Can't discount the possibility that the Sixers could draft Bailey and he gets on a court and just looks way better than he did in college. Displays better handle, shoots a higher %, etc.

For sure. Danny Wolf can end up being Jokic 2.0 too.

My point is that Ace Bailey has both a low probability of reaching his ceiling and a low floor. You mentioned from our team’s perspective we might value him highly, Morey prioritizes efficient scorers, and Bailey doesn’t project as one. His true shooting percentage (53%), effective field goal percentage (51%), and finishing at the rim are all below par. On top of that, shooting 34% from 3 and 69% from the line is a below average foundation for developing into a good reliable shooter.

Regarding Jared McCain, his numbers checks out. He even has 61 TS%. The problem is he’s a boring prospect because of his size and how his role was with Duke (similar to Maluach’s situation now)

If I have to GUESS who our front office is high on, it would be Maluach and KK.

Maluach checks a lot of boxes.. elite scoring efficiency (73 TS%, 75 FT%), elite offensive rebounding (generate extra possessions; 16 OREB%), an NBA-ready frame at 250 lbs with great length, 147 ORtg with 94DRtg and upside with growth rate worthy of a top-3 pick (added 50 lbs in 2 years among others). Yeah, Morey also was in attendance in his workout.

KK likely appeals due to his strong efficiency (64 TS%), elite impact metrics (10 BPM), NBA ready body, NBA ready IQ and the second-highest WARP in the class behind Cooper Flagg.

Just my GUESS

For Bailey and others it's based on a one year sample size. Bailey shot much better from the line in high school apparently, for example. So you have to take these small one year samples for what they're worth. If Bailey played 4 years at Rutgers we don't know if his metrics would have been consistent through all 4 years.

[Arsenal]

Stay at 3 for now on the off chance Harper doesn't go 2, if he does then slide back to 5 for one of Ainge's many future 1sts.

It's essential to keep the pick until SA makes their decision with #2. If Harper is still there at #3 it's a no brainier, and if it's Ace you will already have any deal already agreed to and just pull the trigger. I would be shocked (shocked!) if there aren't 2-3 teams minimum who view Ace as the guy and would love to trade up. If not, Morey just needs to let the chips fall and pick the guy he likes.

If we're trading down, then we'll wait until the team we're trading with picks our guy before pulling the trigger.

[Evil Twin]

Ace Bailey is nowhere near as close as SGA as a prospect. SGA’s numbers checks out, archetype and he has elite physical tools.

Don’t you find that the bigs, who almost always need more development (even Russell had a lot to learn on offense) are still more easily ID’d and tend to go early in the draft, compared to SOME of the better guards, who can slip quite a ways?

[Mik317]

trading down again is probably the smart move

BUT you HAVE to come out of this draft with A DUDE

in that a real difference maker.

This pick being as high as it is means the FO/Scouts really have to earn their paychecks.

This franchise has wasted so many chances just like this.

Now us couch GMs can only go off of what we have available to us but generally even in poopy drafts, there is always a guy NO ONE expects to pop. Find that dude and draft him.

[Snotbubbles]

Let’s talk about Ace Bailey’s upside and floor.. and why I’m skeptical.

When we project Ace’s ceiling, it revolves around his potential as an isolation scorer. There are two paths to elite iso scoring:
1.Creating separation
2.Shooting over defenders

The concern starts with his measurements. He came in at 6’7”, which isn’t small, but it limits his ability to consistently shoot over elite NBA wing defenders guys like Jaden McDaniels, OG Anunoby, or Jalen Williams. Shoot over Kelly Oubre or Paul George? At that height, without elite elevation or length, it’s hard to be a reliable shot-maker over contests.

Then there’s the separation issue. His ball-handling just isn’t where it needs to be. Watch the tape, he’s very right-hand dominant, and his dribble packages are basic. He struggles to get clean looks against even decent defenders.

You can argue, “He’s only 18,” but the bar for self-creation in the NBA is extremely high. Specially for a wing because thats the position where most defenders are. Just watch the play-offs. The gap between where he is now and where he needs to be to succeed as a primary scorer is massive. He lacks the ball handling to create and pass, lacks the freakish height to shoot over, and I personally think he has poor basketball IQ.

I was going to drop some clips of Tatum or MPJ in high school, but I’ll keep it simple.. Have you ever heard concerns about Tatum or MPJ handle at that age? No. Because even then, they showed polish. I honestly can’t name a single elite iso wing scorer who had a bad handle in high school and turned it around at the NBA level.

Now let’s talk floor. The common argument is “he’ll be a 3&D guy.” But even that is risky. He shot 34.6% from three and only 69% from the line. Those numbers is NOT projectable to be a “reliable shooter.”

Defensively, yes, he has tools. But he’s 200 lbs and will be guarding grown 3&4. On film, he’s inconsistent, he’ll flash with a big block, then lose focus and give up a backdoor layup the next play.

If you think “this pick is important”, then he shouldn’t be the guy.

Ace Bailey is only the pick if you view this as a bonus that we can make a high-risk swing for star upside, despite all the odds against it. Otherwise, it’s just too many red flags.

Why is his skill set still this limited? Is it a matter of poor work ethic, or is he simply not improving despite putting in the work? Either way, isn’t it a risky bet to assume he’ll ever reach his upside?

Yes, every prospect comes with risk, but some carry significantly more than others.

I’d rather bet on Tre Johnson would care on defense, with his 6’10” wingspan and athleticism.

I’d rather bet on Khaman Maluach becoming a reliable rebounder with shooting upside, especially given how rapidly he’s been improving.

I’d rather bet that Kasparas Jakucionis’ shooting slump was injury-related, and his shot creation and playmaking will translate into the pros.

It’s all about weighing which risks are most worth taking, and these feel like smarter bets.

Here is Kawhi Leonard's scouting report coming out of college:

Strengths: A hybrid forward with terrific length … He has a high motor and plays the game with a lot of energy … Spends majority of the time on the perimeter, but occasionally shows the ability to play with his back to the basket … Uses an effective turnaround jumper inside when posting up … An agile athlete, his strides are extremely long and he covers a lot of space when running the floor … Shows improvement in majority of areas from freshman to sophomore seasons … His shooting has improved and he has become a respectable threat from the outside … Operating out of the triple threat, he combines a nice jab with a fairly quick and long first step to create separation … He has a strong preference going to his pull-up jumper, and once he gets into a rhythm he can string a number makes together (his length and high release make it a difficult shot to contest) … He is fairly comfortable handling the ball in the open court and is capable of pushing it out off the rebound when the situation calls for it … Even with the improvements to his offensive game, he still continues to contribute heavily in the rebounding department … His huge hangs, length, energy and great timing, allow him to snatch balls on both ends that are well outside of his rebounding area … An extremely quick jumper, he is very good at tipping the ball and keeping it alive on the rim … Has the instincts and shows potential in becoming a very solid defender … His ability to get out in the passing lanes and also contest shots inside make him a very dangerous weapon on the defensive end …

Weaknesses: Does not have one aspect offensively that stands out or which allows him to consistently score the ball … With his size and frame, will almost certainly be a perimeter player at the next level, but he lacks the polish and skill necessary to consistently operate on the wing … He does not have break down ability off the dribble and he is especially shaky handling the ball with his left hand … His jumpshot (while definitely improved) is still very inconsistent … The release comes high off his head and it is somewhat of a sling motion, which results in a fairly flat shot that goes all over the place … At this level, he has a size advantage on almost a nightly basis, but he still chooses to take the majority of his shots from the outside … Takes a high number of off balance shots, but does not show the ability to convert them at a good percentage … He does not have a great touch around the basket, and unless he can get inside position on the defense, he struggles finishing when contested … Not very disciplined defensively, he gambles far too often and leaves his team susceptible to giving up easy baskets …

Sounds an awful lot like Ace Bailey.

[76ciology]

Spoiler:

Let’s talk about Ace Bailey’s upside and floor.. and why I’m skeptical.

When we project Ace’s ceiling, it revolves around his potential as an isolation scorer. There are two paths to elite iso scoring:
1.Creating separation
2.Shooting over defenders

The concern starts with his measurements. He came in at 6’7”, which isn’t small, but it limits his ability to consistently shoot over elite NBA wing defenders guys like Jaden McDaniels, OG Anunoby, or Jalen Williams. Shoot over Kelly Oubre or Paul George? At that height, without elite elevation or length, it’s hard to be a reliable shot-maker over contests.

Then there’s the separation issue. His ball-handling just isn’t where it needs to be. Watch the tape, he’s very right-hand dominant, and his dribble packages are basic. He struggles to get clean looks against even decent defenders.

You can argue, “He’s only 18,” but the bar for self-creation in the NBA is extremely high. Specially for a wing because thats the position where most defenders are. Just watch the play-offs. The gap between where he is now and where he needs to be to succeed as a primary scorer is massive. He lacks the ball handling to create and pass, lacks the freakish height to shoot over, and I personally think he has poor basketball IQ.

I was going to drop some clips of Tatum or MPJ in high school, but I’ll keep it simple.. Have you ever heard concerns about Tatum or MPJ handle at that age? No. Because even then, they showed polish. I honestly can’t name a single elite iso wing scorer who had a bad handle in high school and turned it around at the NBA level.

Now let’s talk floor. The common argument is “he’ll be a 3&D guy.” But even that is risky. He shot 34.6% from three and only 69% from the line. Those numbers is NOT projectable to be a “reliable shooter.”

Defensively, yes, he has tools. But he’s 200 lbs and will be guarding grown 3&4. On film, he’s inconsistent, he’ll flash with a big block, then lose focus and give up a backdoor layup the next play.

If you think “this pick is important”, then he shouldn’t be the guy.

Ace Bailey is only the pick if you view this as a bonus that we can make a high-risk swing for star upside, despite all the odds against it. Otherwise, it’s just too many red flags.

Why is his skill set still this limited? Is it a matter of poor work ethic, or is he simply not improving despite putting in the work? Either way, isn’t it a risky bet to assume he’ll ever reach his upside?

Yes, every prospect comes with risk, but some carry significantly more than others.

I’d rather bet on Tre Johnson would care on defense, with his 6’10” wingspan and athleticism.

I’d rather bet on Khaman Maluach becoming a reliable rebounder with shooting upside, especially given how rapidly he’s been improving.

I’d rather bet that Kasparas Jakucionis’ shooting slump was injury-related, and his shot creation and playmaking will translate into the pros.

It’s all about weighing which risks are most worth taking, and these feel like smarter bets.

Here is Kawhi Leonard's scouting report coming out of college:

Strengths: A hybrid forward with terrific length … He has a high motor and plays the game with a lot of energy … Spends majority of the time on the perimeter, but occasionally shows the ability to play with his back to the basket … Uses an effective turnaround jumper inside when posting up … An agile athlete, his strides are extremely long and he covers a lot of space when running the floor … Shows improvement in majority of areas from freshman to sophomore seasons … His shooting has improved and he has become a respectable threat from the outside … Operating out of the triple threat, he combines a nice jab with a fairly quick and long first step to create separation … He has a strong preference going to his pull-up jumper, and once he gets into a rhythm he can string a number makes together (his length and high release make it a difficult shot to contest) … He is fairly comfortable handling the ball in the open court and is capable of pushing it out off the rebound when the situation calls for it … Even with the improvements to his offensive game, he still continues to contribute heavily in the rebounding department … His huge hangs, length, energy and great timing, allow him to snatch balls on both ends that are well outside of his rebounding area … An extremely quick jumper, he is very good at tipping the ball and keeping it alive on the rim … Has the instincts and shows potential in becoming a very solid defender … His ability to get out in the passing lanes and also contest shots inside make him a very dangerous weapon on the defensive end …

Weaknesses: Does not have one aspect offensively that stands out or which allows him to consistently score the ball … With his size and frame, will almost certainly be a perimeter player at the next level, but he lacks the polish and skill necessary to consistently operate on the wing … He does not have break down ability off the dribble and he is especially shaky handling the ball with his left hand … His jumpshot (while definitely improved) is still very inconsistent … The release comes high off his head and it is somewhat of a sling motion, which results in a fairly flat shot that goes all over the place … At this level, he has a size advantage on almost a nightly basis, but he still chooses to take the majority of his shots from the outside … Takes a high number of off balance shots, but does not show the ability to convert them at a good percentage … He does not have a great touch around the basket, and unless he can get inside position on the defense, he struggles finishing when contested … Not very disciplined defensively, he gambles far too often and leaves his team susceptible to giving up easy baskets …

Sounds an awful lot like Ace Bailey.

Yes, but they’re not nearly as limited as Bailey. The fact that someone already this good is still being seen as needing improvement puts Bailey’s situation into perspective, just imagine how far he has to go.

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

He’s getting to the hole alot and finishing off his left btw. You can also see the difference in defense

[76ciology]

Jayson Tatum

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

Flagg, Harper, and Bailey were considered the three best prospects in this draft class at the start of the season. I don't think that has changed in my meaningless opinion. If we take Edgecombe or Johnson instead I'll be happy. If Harper ends up a Sixer I'll be ecstatic. If we draft Bailey I'm gonna be just as stoked. I like him, I think his game can comfortably grow here because he's going to learn how to be a role player here before he ever learns how to be the main guy. That's why I think it'll work. We can revise this conversation along with my statement three years from now and if I was wrong I'll gladly admit it. On the flip side, If Bailey does in fact become an all star in the league, you won't be hearing a damn thing out of me. I'm not a toldusoer, never been one. Bailey is still my pick at 3, but I'm definitely cool with Edgecombe or Tre or a trade down. I also like Queen a lot, so that just goes to show the extent of my knowledge when it comes to prospects. I have gotten a few right over the decades of watching the sport. Michael Redd comes to mind. I've gotten three times as much wrong.

[76ciology]

My position is that drafting Ace Bailey with the third overall pick is simply a bad bet, not because he can’t become a star, but because the odds of him reaching that level are very low. As a prospect, he reminds me of Jaylen Brown, someone whose early metrics didn’t project stardom, yet he beat the odds. But at the end of the day, all prospects are like crypto… you can do all the technical analysis, but the truth is no one really knows how it will play out. All you can do is manage risk versus reward, and with Bailey, the risk feels too high for a pick this valuable. And this is just my own preference and like in investing, we all have our own styles.

That said, keep in mind I don’t hate the guy, and I’m not claiming with certainty that he won’t reach his upside, it’s just a matter of probability. For me, he’s simply a bad bet at this spot in the draft.

[Black Mage]

Jayson Tatum

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

Bailey put up better numbers in H.S. than Tatum, so what's your point? He displayed explosiveness driving and pulled off step throughs, euro-steps, etc. in H.S. Ace also averaged more assists in H.S. than Tatum.