2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft

[Negrodamus]

Nembhard and Haliburton, two large pass first college point guards. >50% at 2FG%, > 80% FT.

SGA and Jalen Williams, two large scoring first college point guards. >50% at 2FG%, > 80% FT.

Can we commit to this in this draft?

[76ciology]

Nembhard and Haliburton, two large pass first college point guards. >50% at 2FG%, > 80% FT.

SGA and Jalen Williams, two large scoring first college point guards. >50% at 2FG%, > 80% FT.

Can we commit to this in this draft?

If that’s the comparison framework, then Tre Johnson and Maxey make sense in terms of unassisted 3pt shooting then you can have McCain or Grimes to hedge the 3pt variance, particularly with Morey’s history of building around Harden (pairing him with another shotcreator guard like CP3 and RW).

[Negrodamus]

Nembhard and Haliburton, two large pass first college point guards. >50% at 2FG%, > 80% FT.

SGA and Jalen Williams, two large scoring first college point guards. >50% at 2FG%, > 80% FT.

Can we commit to this in this draft?

If that’s the comparison framework, then Tre Johnson and Maxey make sense in terms of unassisted 3pt shooting then you can have McCain or Grimes to hedge the 3pt variance, particularly with Morey’s history of building around Harden (pairing him with another shotcreator guard like CP3 and RW).

The other part of this is that Nembhard, Haliburton, SGA, and Jalen Williams weren't complete dog **** on defense.

[76ciology]

Nembhard and Haliburton, two large pass first college point guards. >50% at 2FG%, > 80% FT.

SGA and Jalen Williams, two large scoring first college point guards. >50% at 2FG%, > 80% FT.

Can we commit to this in this draft?

If that’s the comparison framework, then Tre Johnson and Maxey make sense in terms of unassisted 3pt shooting then you can have McCain or Grimes to hedge the 3pt variance, particularly with Morey’s history of building around Harden (pairing him with another shotcreator guard like CP3 and RW).

The other part of this is that Nembhard, Haliburton, SGA, and Jalen Williams weren't complete dog **** on defense.

Then that’s where you rely on player development. Tre’s has the tools to be a good defender.

[76ciology]

I think the most valuable trait with a top 3 pick is unassisted scoring, ideally from insanely high FG%, 3 or FT (points per shot), combined with some level of playmaking generating open shots at the rim or corner 3s (morey assists). That’s where most of the value comes from in players like Harden, Durant, or SGA.

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If you’re picking in the top 3, are you really passing on guys like Jalen Brunson, Donovan Mitchell, Devin Booker, or Jamal Murray because they can’t defend like Toumani Camara?

[Negrodamus]

If that’s the comparison framework, then Tre Johnson and Maxey make sense in terms of unassisted 3pt shooting then you can have McCain or Grimes to hedge the 3pt variance, particularly with Morey’s history of building around Harden (pairing him with another shotcreator guard like CP3 and RW).

The other part of this is that Nembhard, Haliburton, SGA, and Jalen Williams weren't complete dog **** on defense.

Then that’s where you rely on player development. Tre’s has the tools to be a good defender.

Much like our friend Ace, I need to see markers in his game that suggest he has the capacity of development. It's like expecting Cam Thomas to develop into a PG or Bennedict Mathurin becoming a good defender in the league because of his size/length. If they don't show that aspect of their games in college, I'm not expecting them to develop it in the NBA.

Another example: Haliburton was a non-factor as a foul generator in college. 5 years into his NBA career: .203 FTr.

[76ciology]

The other part of this is that Nembhard, Haliburton, SGA, and Jalen Williams weren't complete dog **** on defense.

Then that’s where you rely on player development. Tre’s has the tools to be a good defender.

Much like our friend Ace, I need to see markers in his game that suggest he has the capacity of development. It's like expecting Cam Thomas to develop into a PG or Bennedict Mathurin becoming a good defender in the league because of his size/length. If they don't show that aspect of their games in college, I'm not expecting them to develop it in the NBA.

Another example: Haliburton was a non-factor as a foul generator in college. 5 years into his NBA career: .203 FTr.

I’d like to invoke the “He’s Just 18” Amendment, my constitutional right to give young prospects a pass on defensive effort.

The conversation should be about who’s most likely to become a star scorer in 5–10 years, that’s the bet that historically gives you a better success rate for a top 3 pick IMO. No one’s calling it a failure if you land a Tyler Herro or Trae Young with a top 3 pick. And Tre Johnson has better physical tools to be a much better defender than both. *Herro got a negative wingspan, Trae is just short*

And let’s not pretend Tre Johnson has no room for improvement. He already has the tools to be at least a neutral defender, athleticism, quickness, and length with that 6’10 wingspan. That is a much better bet than say expecting Collin Murray Boyles to be a good shooter or Ace Bailey developing advanced ball handling and passing skills.

[76ciology]

Stock numbers and defense are nice, but you can’t expect your role players to give you shot creation. You can, however, expect them to contribute on defense and rack up stocks.

[Black Mage]

If that’s the comparison framework, then Tre Johnson and Maxey make sense in terms of unassisted 3pt shooting then you can have McCain or Grimes to hedge the 3pt variance, particularly with Morey’s history of building around Harden (pairing him with another shotcreator guard like CP3 and RW).

The other part of this is that Nembhard, Haliburton, SGA, and Jalen Williams weren't complete dog **** on defense.

Then that’s where you rely on player development. Tre’s has the tools to be a good defender.

No he doesn't. He has shown no defensive mentality, defensive BBIQ or awareness or even a basic desire to defend at ANY level of basketball. Name me one guy that refused to give effort on defense in H.S. and college and then suddenly decided f'it now that I'm a pro, I'll care.

Second, he lacks the lateral agility and hips to be a good defender.

[Negrodamus]

Then that’s where you rely on player development. Tre’s has the tools to be a good defender.

Much like our friend Ace, I need to see markers in his game that suggest he has the capacity of development. It's like expecting Cam Thomas to develop into a PG or Bennedict Mathurin becoming a good defender in the league because of his size/length. If they don't show that aspect of their games in college, I'm not expecting them to develop it in the NBA.

Another example: Haliburton was a non-factor as a foul generator in college. 5 years into his NBA career: .203 FTr.

I’d like to invoke the “He’s Just 18” Amendment, my constitutional right to give young prospects a pass on defensive effort.

The conversation should be about who’s most likely to become a star scorer in 5–10 years, that’s the bet that historically gives you a better success rate for a top 3 pick IMO. No one’s calling it a failure if you land a Tyler Herro or Trae Young with a top 3 pick. And Tre Johnson has better physical tools to be a much better defender than both. *Herro got a negative wingspan, Trae is just short*

And let’s not pretend Tre Johnson has no room for improvement. He already has the tools to be at least a neutral defender, athleticism, quickness, and length with that 6’10 wingspan. That is a much better bet than say expecting Collin Murray Boyles to be a good shooter or Ace Bailey developing advanced ball handling and passing skills.

That’s fine, and I don’t view Tre as a lost cause prospect. Still think he has an upside of Murray or Herro. I just think I had gripes with guys on defense like Fultz and Simmons because they looked apathetic and lazy on defense, however they generated very good STL/BLK% because they were instinctual on defense. Those translated to the next level (I was especially shocked at how well Fultz looked on defense in the NBA). Tre lacks instinct and effort. The length doesn’t really matter; plenty of long guard prospects never become passable defenders.

Tre can become something, but I don’t want to swing for a ceiling of a tertiary scorer who needs to be subbed out in end of game situations. Swing for an all around two way game with positive shooting metrics and positive distribution/handles at 3. If that requires trading down a few spots, so be it.

[MVP1992]

Watched that twitter clip of Tre.

Is he going to handle running to the baseline getting trapped by two NBA level defenders?

Was it his craftiness or good vision that allowed him to get the passes off?

Or was it team mates bailing him out by cutting or standing in the corner undefended?

[Negrodamus]

I’d be excited if Morey and scouts graded Noa Essengue as the BPA. Lots to like watching him but I get the impression that he’s only an assist converter/put back effort guy. Kinda hard to commit to that at 3

[76ciology]

Much like our friend Ace, I need to see markers in his game that suggest he has the capacity of development. It's like expecting Cam Thomas to develop into a PG or Bennedict Mathurin becoming a good defender in the league because of his size/length. If they don't show that aspect of their games in college, I'm not expecting them to develop it in the NBA.

Another example: Haliburton was a non-factor as a foul generator in college. 5 years into his NBA career: .203 FTr.

I’d like to invoke the “He’s Just 18” Amendment, my constitutional right to give young prospects a pass on defensive effort.

The conversation should be about who’s most likely to become a star scorer in 5–10 years, that’s the bet that historically gives you a better success rate for a top 3 pick IMO. No one’s calling it a failure if you land a Tyler Herro or Trae Young with a top 3 pick. And Tre Johnson has better physical tools to be a much better defender than both. *Herro got a negative wingspan, Trae is just short*

And let’s not pretend Tre Johnson has no room for improvement. He already has the tools to be at least a neutral defender, athleticism, quickness, and length with that 6’10 wingspan. That is a much better bet than say expecting Collin Murray Boyles to be a good shooter or Ace Bailey developing advanced ball handling and passing skills.

That’s fine, and I don’t view Tre as a lost cause prospect. Still think he has an upside of Murray or Herro. I just think I had gripes with guys on defense like Fultz and Simmons because they looked apathetic and lazy on defense, however they generated very good STL/BLK% because they were instinctual on defense. Those translated to the next level (I was especially shocked at how well Fultz looked on defense in the NBA). Tre lacks instinct and effort. The length doesn’t really matter; plenty of long guard prospects never become passable defenders.

Tre can become something, but I don’t want to swing for a ceiling of a tertiary scorer who needs to be subbed out in end of game situations. Swing for an all around two way game with positive shooting metrics and positive distribution/handles at 3. If that requires trading down a few spots, so be it.

Tre Johnson’s steal rate is comparable to guys like Bailey and Maxey. He also has the athletic and physical profile to become a neutral multi positional defender, thanks to his height to length ratio and speed. Given time and opportunity, his realistic upside is somewhere between Jamal Murray and Devin Booker, a strong second option on a contender and comparable on defense. Neutral defender, 25ppg scorer, elite shooter, reliable scorer on crunch time/play-off setting and 5 assists per game. That’s a solid outcome for a No. 3 overall pick, and probably a smarter way to approach it.

On a related note, I’ve been thinking, not all 3 are created equal. Scoring on unassisted threes might actually be more valuable than unassisted rim attempts, because of it’s spacing and gravity. It wouldn’t surprise me if analytics heavily favor players who can generate and hit unassisted threes, and thats why more players are scoring that way.

[76ciology]

I’d be excited if Morey and scouts graded Noa Essengue as the BPA. Lots to like watching him but I get the impression that he’s only an assist converter/put back effort guy. Kinda hard to commit to that at 3

I like him but he’s more of a transition player and assist converter. Actually there’s a lot of these 2 way impact role players in this draft. I also like Cedric Coward and Rasheer Flemming.

[SixersFanInNY]

Can anyone name an instance where someone traded out of a top 3 pick and it actually worked?

Maybe you meant to allude to this but the Sixers in 1988 traded #3 (Charles Smith) for Hersey Hawkins at #6. I would say it worked.

[M2J]

Nembhard and Haliburton, two large pass first college point guards. >50% at 2FG%, > 80% FT.

SGA and Jalen Williams, two large scoring first college point guards. >50% at 2FG%, > 80% FT.

Can we commit to this in this draft?

If that’s the comparison framework, then Tre Johnson and Maxey make sense in terms of unassisted 3pt shooting then you can have McCain or Grimes to hedge the 3pt variance, particularly with Morey’s history of building around Harden (pairing him with another shotcreator guard like CP3 and RW).

The other part of this is that Nembhard, Haliburton, SGA, and Jalen Williams weren't complete dog **** on defense.

Don't they essentially have that in Maxey and Grimes?

[Kolkmania]

I think that Giannis workout with Bailey and Harper on YouTube is fantastic content. The difference in explosiveness and intensity in the routines is enormous Obviously you're comparing a MVP-caliber player to a high school/college player, but it shows the gap that they have to bridge.

That video does highlight the difficulties of Harper's shooting mechanics. The set point is so low (and relatively slow) that it could negate his height advantage and it makes shooting off the dribble a lot harder. I am a bit worried that this caps his scoring potential if he does not find a counter, he doesn't have the shiftiness like SGA for example.

[Snotbubbles]

I think that Giannis workout with Bailey and Harper on YouTube is fantastic content. The difference in explosiveness and intensity in the routines is enormous Obviously you're comparing a MVP-caliber player to a high school/college player, but it shows the gap that they have to bridge.

That video does highlight the difficulties of Harper's shooting mechanics. The set point is so low (and relatively slow) that it could negate his height advantage and it makes shooting off the dribble a lot harder. I am a bit worried that this caps his scoring potential if he does not find a counter, he doesn't have the shiftiness like SGA for example.

That video makes me want Bailey even more now. I think he's going to grow another 1-2 inches, put on 30 pounds of muscle. His shot for looks good. He'll never be a Giannis just bullying people at the rim, but he can be a KD type jump shooter with really good defense.

[Kobblehead]

I think Carter Bryant is going to be the Tari Eason of this draft.

[Lou_23]

If there is a trade in Philadelphia’s future involving the No. 3 pick in the draft, don’t expect the 76ers to move down very far on the 2025 draft board. League sources maintain that the Sixers are determined to add a dynamic young talent to their core after the tremendous fortune they enjoyed in the May 12 draft lottery.
 via Marc Stein @ marcstein.substack.com