2025 NBA Draft (2)

[Jojothewhale]

Ace has the highest upside.

I really don’t want to keep having the same discussion, but this keeps getting repeated. It’s of course fine to think this. We just have to understand that it’s not a fact or even a strong consensus belief.

What is upside to you? Is it 90th Percentile outcomes? 95th? 99th? Because to me, there is no greater delta between 90th and 99th Percentile outcomes in this class than Bailey. If absolutely everything breaks perfectly, I can see the logic. But I’m personally not making a draft pick based on 99th Percentiles even if it’s one approach to defining upside as a concept.

[Black Mage]

The best part will be when Morey trades this pick for Kevin Durant or something.

If Spurs don't bite on Giannis and he wants out; I would be shocked if Morey doesn't try to move heaven and earth to get Giannis.

[FireMorey]

Since everyone here disagrees on VJ vs Edgecombe, I want to focus in on this one thing speficially to see where people stand.

Who do you think has higher upside just in terms of being a top level NBA scorer: Bailey or Edgecombe?

Forget about all the other stuff, just curious if the Edgecombe people think he has higher upside as a scorer also.

[eyeatoma]

Daryl doesn't do "eye test". He might pay it lip service in a presser, but that's it. He's a robot. Stars have analytics that jump off the page and affect championships positively and meaningfully. Bailey has none of that. He has a lot of hype, primarily because he's a wing with flashy YouTube clips in a league starved of wings.

The Sixers also plan on pretending to the fullest that Joel will be available and this team is going to contend for a title. And Nurse isn't going trust Bailey with PT until there's no playoffs left to chase.

Also, please no more talk of Jokic-Embiid comparisons. It's done, history has spoken.

History has spoken that Embiid was incredibly injury prone, which clearly impacted our comparison of the two. When healthy he was as good, if not better (see the year he was injured and on the way to a unanimous MVP). Sure he had a bad attitude in his later years, but I give him a bit of a pass given how **** this organisation and the media/fans have been about him.

Part of his injury proneness was self inflicted.

He's probably a HOFer.

I just personally am completely over him and would like him either traded or medically retired ASAP.

What part was self inflcited? Not trying to be confrontational, genuinely wondering. The fact that he insisted on playing when he was hurt? That's competetiveness, but the Sixers are far more guilty of that.

Him dunking when he shouldn't. It's hard to unwire that from your game, and it's what makes him a HOFer.

[mksp]

History has spoken that Embiid was incredibly injury prone, which clearly impacted our comparison of the two. When healthy he was as good, if not better (see the year he was injured and on the way to a unanimous MVP). Sure he had a bad attitude in his later years, but I give him a bit of a pass given how **** this organisation and the media/fans have been about him.

Part of his injury proneness was self inflicted.

He's probably a HOFer.

I just personally am completely over him and would like him either traded or medically retired ASAP.

What part was self inflcited? Not trying to be confrontational, genuinely wondering. The fact that he insisted on playing when he was hurt? That's competetiveness, but the Sixers are far more guilty of that.

Him dunking when he shouldn't. It's hard to unwire that from your game, and it's what makes him a HOFer.

Embiid has not taken care of himself the way an NBA athlete should. His diet, workout regiment, etc. are not good enough, especially for a guy his size, with his injury history.

On top of that, he hasn't learned, or cared to learn, how to be a leader.

[eyeatoma]

Ace has the highest upside.

I really don’t want to keep having the same discussion, but this keeps getting repeated. It’s of course fine to think this. We just have to understand that it’s not a fact or even a strong consensus belief.

What is upside to you? Is it 90th Percentile outcomes? 95th? 99th? Because to me, there is no greater delta between 90th and 99th Percentile outcomes in this class than Bailey. If absolutely everything breaks perfectly, I can see the logic. But I’m personally not making a draft pick based on 99th Percentiles even if it’s one approach to defining upside as a concept.

He has the measurables, and the shot profile to make that upside.

Aces issues are apparently FT rate and %, % could be an anomolay, shaky handle (not that shaky). Great shooter on volume, excellent tough shot maker, gives a **** on defense.

Harper - Terrible 3 point shooter, not great athlete, Fultz vibes. People **** on Ace for his numbers, if Harper is so great why aren't they winning more (rhetorical question).

Edgecomb - Not a great shooter, or scorer, eratic performance, and huge variablity of defensive upside - best comp Oladipo (not sure how that helps when we have 3 gaurds).

Tre Johnson - Horrible defender, doesn't give a ****, and has tight hips limiting his potential there. Not sure how much that can be corrected. - Elite shooter, could be a Lavine/Booker level scorer, but both are better at getting at the rim, which Johnson doesn't like.

With all those potentials, I like Ace fixing his problems the most because of his height and potential to keep growing based on age.

[eyeatoma]

Part of his injury proneness was self inflicted.

He's probably a HOFer.

I just personally am completely over him and would like him either traded or medically retired ASAP.

What part was self inflcited? Not trying to be confrontational, genuinely wondering. The fact that he insisted on playing when he was hurt? That's competetiveness, but the Sixers are far more guilty of that.

Him dunking when he shouldn't. It's hard to unwire that from your game, and it's what makes him a HOFer.

Embiid has not taken care of himself the way an NBA athlete should. His diet, workout regiment, etc. are not good enough, especially for a guy his size, with his injury history.

On top of that, he hasn't learned, or cared to learn, how to be a leader.

I agree about the diet, and yes could have contributed to the injuries. Fair point. I'm also tired, and am fine with a trade a this point. But no the Jokic debate wasn't answered, it'll always be a what if.

[eyeatoma]

The best part will be when Morey trades this pick for Kevin Durant or something.

If Spurs don't bite on Giannis and he wants out; I would be shocked if Morey doesn't try to move heaven and earth to get Giannis.

Giannis Embiid would be so horrible. It'll basically just be Giannis on a worse team than what the Bucks have now.

[Negrodamus]

Since everyone here disagrees on VJ vs Edgecombe, I want to focus in on this one thing speficially to see where people stand.

Who do you think has higher upside just in terms of being a top level NBA scorer: Bailey or Edgecombe?

Forget about all the other stuff, just curious if the Edgecombe people think he has higher upside as a scorer also.

Probably Ace unless VJ starts adding skills he doesn’t currently possess. But I’d say neither.

[mksp]

What part was self inflcited? Not trying to be confrontational, genuinely wondering. The fact that he insisted on playing when he was hurt? That's competetiveness, but the Sixers are far more guilty of that.

Him dunking when he shouldn't. It's hard to unwire that from your game, and it's what makes him a HOFer.

Embiid has not taken care of himself the way an NBA athlete should. His diet, workout regiment, etc. are not good enough, especially for a guy his size, with his injury history.

On top of that, he hasn't learned, or cared to learn, how to be a leader.

I agree about the diet, and yes could have contributed to the injuries. Fair point. I'm also tired, and am fine with a trade a this point. But no the Jokic debate wasn't answered, it'll always be a what if.

The only reason it's a debate is defensive impact. Which Embiid can't really do anymore.

Offensively Jokic is on another planet, especially when game tightens up in the playoffs.

But yeah, don't want to derail this thread talking about Embiid. Would guess most would be happy to move on from him at this point. I was trying to trade him two years ago.

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

We should probably just ban dealing with Ainge in any capacity ever again.

F***ck that, just be competent for a change and catch the little weasel in a spot where he's the more desperate party to make the deal.

Fleecing Danny Ainge would be a dream come true. Maybe we could bring in Mario Elie as a distraction? Throw Ainge off his game.

[ProcessDoctor]

The FTr discussion has had me thinking, so I looked at the guys who made an All-NBA team this year. Of the 15 guys who made it, 7 were below 0.300 FTr for the season.

Mitchell, Mobley, Curry, LeBron, Haliburton, Cunningham, and J. Williams were below that threshold.

Tatum was at exactly .300 and Edwards was at .308, but has a career FTr of .276.

[eyeatoma]

Embiid has not taken care of himself the way an NBA athlete should. His diet, workout regiment, etc. are not good enough, especially for a guy his size, with his injury history.

On top of that, he hasn't learned, or cared to learn, how to be a leader.

I agree about the diet, and yes could have contributed to the injuries. Fair point. I'm also tired, and am fine with a trade a this point. But no the Jokic debate wasn't answered, it'll always be a what if.

The only reason it's a debate is defensive impact. Which Embiid can't really do anymore.

Offensively Jokic is on another planet, especially when game tightens up in the playoffs.

But yeah, don't want to derail this thread talking about Embiid. Would guess most would be happy to move on from him at this point. I was trying to trade him two years ago.

I;m going to push back on that. In season Embiid's offense was as good as Jokic's especially MVP season and the last time he got hurt and was averaging like 35.

In playoffs he had the impact, but was often either hampered by bad teammates or injuries. Inspite of that he was increidbly inpactful against the Knicks playing on one leg. Jokic is incredible in the playoffs, but lost some luster for me the last two years. He basically pulled an Embiid in Game 7 this year. He was also very lucky to win the chip with a cakewalk list of opponents.

[eyeatoma]

The FTr discussion has had me thinking, so I looked at the guys who made an All-NBA team this year. Of the 15 guys who made it, 7 were below 0.300 FTr for the season.

Mitchell, Mobley, Curry, LeBron, Haliburton, Cunningham, and J. Williams were below that threshold.

Tatum was at exactly .300 and Edwards was at .308, but has a career FTr of .276.

Yeah this FTr think is annoying. Basically if we have a high volume FT shooter, we're going to get the same **** about him being a grifter and flopper. I'm done with that after the last decade. Plenty of great players don't get to the line 10 times a night and are top 10 players. Hell Maxey was a borderline top 10 player those two months after the new year, and he only averages like 5-6 FT a game.

[Covi_Marsh]

Since everyone here disagrees on VJ vs Edgecombe, I want to focus in on this one thing speficially to see where people stand.

Who do you think has higher upside just in terms of being a top level NBA scorer: Bailey or Edgecombe?

Forget about all the other stuff, just curious if the Edgecombe people think he has higher upside as a scorer also.

Ace Bailey. Pure shooting form and already can get to spot on the floor where he can rise up to shoot his great midrange which was amongst the top in NCAA. Improved footwork will create more space to get that shot off. Up to us and him to polish that. Catch and shoot 3s nice percentage and better spacing should help him attack the rim more even if he doesn’t become aggressive or a FT merchant there.

For VJ, an athletic Josh Hart with a 3 point shot and all nba defense could be an all star on a winning team. Transition scoring and attacking the run with defense is great day 1. I don’t see the upside. What guard ever improved their playmaking and dribble who didn’t show creation flashes already in college or high school? Westbrook play off ball at UCLA but you seen the playmaking flashes where you knew he could be a PG. Ant Edwards showed creation skills at Georgia. Maybe he can be a smaller Jaylen Brown. Brown a wing tho

[Jojothewhale]

Ace has the highest upside.

I really don’t want to keep having the same discussion, but this keeps getting repeated. It’s of course fine to think this. We just have to understand that it’s not a fact or even a strong consensus belief.

What is upside to you? Is it 90th Percentile outcomes? 95th? 99th? Because to me, there is no greater delta between 90th and 99th Percentile outcomes in this class than Bailey. If absolutely everything breaks perfectly, I can see the logic. But I’m personally not making a draft pick based on 99th Percentiles even if it’s one approach to defining upside as a concept.

He has the measurables, and the shot profile to make that upside.

Aces issues are apparently FT rate and %, % could be an anomolay, shaky handle (not that shaky). Great shooter on volume, excellent tough shot maker, gives a **** on defense.

Harper - Terrible 3 point shooter, not great athlete, Fultz vibes. People **** on Ace for his numbers, if Harper is so great why aren't they winning more (rhetorical question).

Edgecomb - Not a great shooter, or scorer, eratic performance, and huge variablity of defensive upside - best comp Oladipo (not sure how that helps when we have 3 gaurds).

Tre Johnson - Horrible defender, doesn't give a ****, and has tight hips limiting his potential there. Not sure how much that can be corrected. - Elite shooter, could be a Lavine/Booker level scorer, but both are better at getting at the rim, which Johnson doesn't like.

With all those potentials, I like Ace fixing his problems the most because of his height and potential to keep growing based on age.

None of that is what I asked or has an any relevance to it. Whether you like Bailey or not is not up for discussion. I don’t get to argue that you shouldn’t think something without being a jerk. All I can do is disagree.

How are you defining upside? Is it everything under the sun goes perfectly?

[Negrodamus]

FTr being .300 or greater is a prerequisite for my top ten picks. There’s clearly a disconnect in your all’s understanding in how I use it. Feel free to disregard the stat.

[Arsenal]

Interesting thread on Sixers reddit re: top prospect RAPM that will make Negro's head explode deciding whether to use this data or not!



And here's hardcore analytic evidence of Ace Bailey's positive impact on the floor. Will wait patiently for the ADS afflicted to spin this away:

Still, it's interesting that Ace Bailey is basically the one exception. His net rating data is hilarious. Rutgers's net rating improves by +12 to +20.4 with him on the court, depending on whether or not you adjust for strength of schedule. For reference, Cooper Flagg's on/off is +3.3 to +6.4, depending on the adjustment.

Sam Vecenie mentioned that against conference opponents Rutgers were -2 or -3 in 100 possessions with Bailey. That number drop to -20 when he was off court. So, for some magical reason, when Bailey was on the court, his team could compete. When he was off the court, his team got destroyed. Sounds like Embiid. lol

https://www.reddit.com/r/sixers/comments/1kxoxwn/rapm_for_consensus_top10_prospects_vs_top_100/

Saw it, here was my favorite comment:

Does RAPM even matter for evaluating college prospects? I looked at previous years and frankly there's a huge mix of both busts and guys who worked out with high RAPM

Now if you go back and find every all star from the past ten drafts and they all fall within Ace’s statistical range, I’ll definitely pick the pieces of my brain and skull off the ceiling.

You can't seriously argue that RAPM is less meaningful than FTr which you swear by? And I notice you conveniently ignore Ace's insane +/- numbers. Not as important as AST% I guess.

Having a mix of stars and busts is to be expected with any draft analytical screen since most drafted players are busts, even near the top of the draft.

[Negrodamus]

Interesting thread on Sixers reddit re: top prospect RAPM that will make Negro's head explode deciding whether to use this data or not!



And here's hardcore analytic evidence of Ace Bailey's positive impact on the floor. Will wait patiently for the ADS afflicted to spin this away:





https://www.reddit.com/r/sixers/comments/1kxoxwn/rapm_for_consensus_top10_prospects_vs_top_100/

Saw it, here was my favorite comment:

Does RAPM even matter for evaluating college prospects? I looked at previous years and frankly there's a huge mix of both busts and guys who worked out with high RAPM

Now if you go back and find every all star from the past ten drafts and they all fall within Ace’s statistical range, I’ll definitely pick the pieces of my brain and skull off the ceiling.

You can't seriously argue that RAPM is less meaningful than FTr which you swear by? And I notice you conveniently ignore Ace's insane +/- numbers. Not as important as AST% I guess.

Having a mix of stars and busts is to be expected with any draft analytical screen since most drafted players are busts, even near the top of the draft.

I’ve provided evidence of a pattern among NBA All Stars coming out of college to suggest the point that it is important to be able to generate fouls, assists and a FT% at a certain level IN COLLEGE (an important distinction apparently) by going through the all star list, going through all of their FT%, FTr, and AST% in college and posting them here.

You went and pulled a thread from /r/sixers where it points out a favorable stat for Ace in which there is no context in how it relates to previous All Stars, our only point of reference for the type of successful draft picks we’re looking for at #3, and you get defensive when I question it.

[Jailblazers7]

I think on/off is a bit misleading for Ace since the consensus is that Rutgers was essentially a JV team with a brain dead coach. I’m glad the numbers show impact there but context is important.

I’m finding Ace very difficult to evaluate because of the whole Rutgers situation. I can’t decide if it a bad thing that makes me want to avoid him or something that makes me comfortable ignoring some of his statistical blemishes.