2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft

[Arsenal]

Sorber could end up being one of the best players in this draft, possibly top three. He just has that type of game with the physical attributes to match

If we trade down to pick up a mid 1st Sorber is a prime target.

[Arsenal]

I'm trusting Derik Queen losing weight and becoming a better athlete before Ace learns how to pass, draw fouls, beat his man off the dribble, generate steals, and gain weight/muscle mass.

Every endorsement for Ace comes with a litany of excuses as to why he fell short and how he'll "figure it out".

I’m not picking a fat center with turrible athleticism, mediocre length, zero D, and who is closer in age to a junior than a freshman with a top 3 pick. No thanks.

[Negrodamus]

I'm trusting Derik Queen losing weight and becoming a better athlete before Ace learns how to pass, draw fouls, beat his man off the dribble, generate steals, and gain weight/muscle mass.

Every endorsement for Ace comes with a litany of excuses as to why he fell short and how he'll "figure it out".

I’m not picking a fat center with turrible athleticism, mediocre length, zero D, and who is closer in age to a junior than a freshman with a top 3 pick. No thanks.

Noted.

Meanwhile, the expectation is we all bend the knee and act completely nice and cordial to Ace Bailey because he's a "don't overthink it" prospect whose seemingly only elite trait is making tough shots that he's 100% forced to take since he can get around his defender or get them to foul him.

[Arsenal]

I'm trusting Derik Queen losing weight and becoming a better athlete before Ace learns how to pass, draw fouls, beat his man off the dribble, generate steals, and gain weight/muscle mass.

Every endorsement for Ace comes with a litany of excuses as to why he fell short and how he'll "figure it out".

I’m not picking a fat center with turrible athleticism, mediocre length, zero D, and who is closer in age to a junior than a freshman with a top 3 pick. No thanks.

Noted.

Meanwhile, the expectation is we all bend the knee and act completely nice and cordial to Ace Bailey because he's a "don't overthink it" prospect whose seemingly only elite trait is making tough shots that he's 100% forced to take since he can get around his defender or get them to foul him.

Ace = elite...

Positional Value
Shotmaking
Shotblocking
Athleticism
Defense
Pedigree
Length
Age

Throw in the fact that he's been undercoached due to going to a public high school instead of a basketball factory, then was on a garbage Rutgers team that couldn't shoot or defend instead of surrounded by NBA talents that could open up the floor for easy looks, and he's definitely the pick.

[the_process]

I’m not picking a fat center with turrible athleticism, mediocre length, zero D, and who is closer in age to a junior than a freshman with a top 3 pick. No thanks.

Noted.

Meanwhile, the expectation is we all bend the knee and act completely nice and cordial to Ace Bailey because he's a "don't overthink it" prospect whose seemingly only elite trait is making tough shots that he's 100% forced to take since he can get around his defender or get them to foul him.

Ace = elite...

Positional Value
Shotmaking
Shotblocking
Athleticism
Defense
Pedigree
Length
Age

Throw in the fact that he's been undercoached due to going to a public high school instead of a basketball factory, then was on a garbage Rutgers team that couldn't shoot or defend instead of surrounded by NBA talents that could open up the floor for easy looks, and he's definitely the pick.

I disagree on all of that except positional value and age. Those two traits, and his unnecessarily difficult shot making, are why so many are infatuated by him.

Including other teams, I'd bet. So it's not an oxymoron to say I don't want the guy for my team, but another team would pay up to get him.

[Negrodamus]

Elite shotblocker? He's a good shotblocker for his position, but he's by no means elite. The rest is kind of abstract and frankly made up if combine through his numbers.

[Arsenal]

Noted.

Meanwhile, the expectation is we all bend the knee and act completely nice and cordial to Ace Bailey because he's a "don't overthink it" prospect whose seemingly only elite trait is making tough shots that he's 100% forced to take since he can get around his defender or get them to foul him.

Ace = elite...

Positional Value
Shotmaking
Shotblocking
Athleticism
Defense
Pedigree
Length
Age

Throw in the fact that he's been undercoached due to going to a public high school instead of a basketball factory, then was on a garbage Rutgers team that couldn't shoot or defend instead of surrounded by NBA talents that could open up the floor for easy looks, and he's definitely the pick.

I disagree on all of that except positional value and age. Those two traits, and his unnecessarily difficult shot making, are why so many are infatuated by him.

Including other teams, I'd bet. So it's not an oxymoron to say I don't want the guy for my team, but another team would pay up to get him.

Sad to see you succumb to overthinking.

[Arsenal]

Elite shotblocker? He's a good shotblocker for his position, but he's by no means elite. The rest is kind of abstract and frankly made up if combine through his numbers.

Good vs. great can be debated. His shotblocking numbers are damn good for a SF and better than a lot of Centers.

I like advanced stats too, but they're only one part of the picture. There are mitigating factors with Ace making the advanced stats look far worse than for other players.

[Negrodamus]

Elite shotblocker? He's a good shotblocker for his position, but he's by no means elite. The rest is kind of abstract and frankly made up if combine through his numbers.

Good vs. great can be debated. His shotblocking numbers are damn good for a SF and better than a lot of Centers.

I like advanced stats too, but they're only one part of the picture. There are mitigating factors with Ace making the advanced stats look far worse than for other players.

Every endorsement for Ace comes with a litany of excuses as to why he fell short and how he'll "figure it out".

[Negrodamus]

Posted this in a thread on the Draft Board, but throwing it here. Nothing really new if you read my ramblings on these threads, but really wanted to hammer home that Ace shares little with NBA All Stars when they were coming into the league.

Would love someone who hits 10+ AST%, >.300 FTr, >75% FT (Disclaimer: I usually evaluate more than just these numbers but I do feel they are good markers)

Recent wing(ish) all stars college stats (AST%, FTr, FT) the year they went to the draft:

All Three hit mark:
Cade Cunningham: 20.4 AST%, .390 FTr, 85% FT
Jalen Williams: 22.6 AST%, .330 FTr, 81% FT
Jalen Brunson: 26.6 AST%, .313 FTr, 80% FT
Tyrese Maxey: 18.7 AST%, .322 FTr, 83% FT
Ant Edwards: 17.9 AST%, .339 FTr, 77% FT
Shai Gilgeous: ​​28.8 AST%, .464 FTr, 82% FT
Darius Garland*: 25.7 AST%, .296 FTr, 75% FT (I'll give it to him for being close with FTr)
Ja Morant: 51.8 AST%, .512 FTr, 81% FT
Fred VanVleet: 39.6 AST%, .393 FTr, 82% FT
Trae Young: 48.6 AST%, .443, 86% FT
Jayson Tatum: 12.4 AST%, .381 FTr, 85% FT

Hit 2 of the marks:
Brandon Ingram: 11.4 AST%, .351 FTr, 68% FT
Ben Simmons: 27.4 AST%, .769 FTr, 67% FT
Devin Booker: 10.9 AST%, .223 FTr, 83% FT
Donovan Mitchell: 16.0 AST%, .243 FTr, 81% FT
Pascal Siakam: 12.1 AST%, .396 FTr, 68% FT
Zion Williamson: 14.9 AST%, .467, 64% FT
Julius Randle: 10 AST%, .739 FTr, 70% FT
Jaylen Brown: 15.3 AST%, .574 FTr, 65% FT
Andrew Wiggins: 9.2 AST%, .538 FTr, 78% FT
Dejounte Murray: 25.6 AST%, .345 FTr, 66% FT
De’Aaron Fox: 28.6 AST%, .474 FTr, 74% FT
Tyrese Haliburton: 35.3 AST%, .184 FTr, 82% FT
Tyler Herro: 15 AST%, .231 FTr, 94% FT
Paolo Banchero: 17.5 AST%, .366 FTr, 73% FT
Scottie Barnes: 31.6 AST%, .338 FTr, 62% FT

Hit only 1 of the marks:
Zach LaVine: 12.6 AST%, .236 FTr, 69% FT

(*Only 5 games)


This year’s draft

Hit all three:
Cooper Flagg: 26.8 AST%, .429 FTr, 84% FT
Dylan Harper: 27.1 AST%, .419 FTr, 75% FT
VJ Edgecombe: 19.2 AST%, .373 FTr, 78% FT
Jeremiah Fears: 28.6 AST%, .518 FTr, 85% FT
Kon Knueppel: 15.7 AST%, .339 FTr, 91% FT
Kasparas Jaku: 26.0 AST%, .496 FTr, .85% FT
Derik Queen: 11.6 AST%, .546 FTr, 77% FT

Hit 2:
Tre Johnson: 16.5 AST%, .265 FTr, 87% FT


Hit None:
Ace Bailey: 8.3 AST%, .243, 69% FT

[Arsenal]

Cherry-picked stats mean nothing without context. Bailey is the youngest player (aside from Flagg and Fears) and was stuck on the worst college team on that entire list. Pretty much every one of those guys was older, more physically mature, and played on a stacked or at least a good team.

[Negrodamus]

Is there any accountability for Ace for choosing to go to Rutgers with his buddy, play worse than him, doesn't persevere despite their shortcomings, and then phoned in the final 2 months of his season? No one forced him to go there. He was a top recruit; he could have gone to Duke if he wanted to.

Or is this part of the built in excuses used to continue his "can't miss" campaign?

[eyeatoma]

Noted.

Meanwhile, the expectation is we all bend the knee and act completely nice and cordial to Ace Bailey because he's a "don't overthink it" prospect whose seemingly only elite trait is making tough shots that he's 100% forced to take since he can get around his defender or get them to foul him.

Ace = elite...

Positional Value
Shotmaking
Shotblocking
Athleticism
Defense
Pedigree
Length
Age

Throw in the fact that he's been undercoached due to going to a public high school instead of a basketball factory, then was on a garbage Rutgers team that couldn't shoot or defend instead of surrounded by NBA talents that could open up the floor for easy looks, and he's definitely the pick.

I disagree on all of that except positional value and age. Those two traits, and his unnecessarily difficult shot making, are why so many are infatuated by him.

Including other teams, I'd bet. So it's not an oxymoron to say I don't want the guy for my team, but another team would pay up to get him.

He's a good defender, and an above average athlete. He's also not short, and but also has time to grow, only being 18.

[Arsenal]

Is there any accountability for Ace for choosing to go to Rutgers with his buddy, play worse than him, doesn't persevere despite their shortcomings, and then phoned in the final 2 months of his season? No one forced him to go there. He was a top recruit; he could have gone to Duke if he wanted to.

Or is this part of the built in excuses used to continue his "can't miss" campaign?

Sad to see you've succumbed to the LeBron "stack the deck" mentality. I prefer guys like Giannis and Dirk who value loyalty.

You can look at him choosing Rutgers as a positive (instead of taking the easy road at Duke) if you leave behind your anti-Ace agenda.

[eyeatoma]

Posted this in a thread on the Draft Board, but throwing it here. Nothing really new if you read my ramblings on these threads, but really wanted to hammer home that Ace shares little with NBA All Stars when they were coming into the league.

Would love someone who hits 10+ AST%, >.300 FTr, >75% FT (Disclaimer: I usually evaluate more than just these numbers but I do feel they are good markers)

Recent wing(ish) all stars college stats (AST%, FTr, FT) the year they went to the draft:

All Three hit mark:
Cade Cunningham: 20.4 AST%, .390 FTr, 85% FT
Jalen Williams: 22.6 AST%, .330 FTr, 81% FT
Jalen Brunson: 26.6 AST%, .313 FTr, 80% FT
Tyrese Maxey: 18.7 AST%, .322 FTr, 83% FT
Ant Edwards: 17.9 AST%, .339 FTr, 77% FT
Shai Gilgeous: ​​28.8 AST%, .464 FTr, 82% FT
Darius Garland*: 25.7 AST%, .296 FTr, 75% FT (I'll give it to him for being close with FTr)
Ja Morant: 51.8 AST%, .512 FTr, 81% FT
Fred VanVleet: 39.6 AST%, .393 FTr, 82% FT
Trae Young: 48.6 AST%, .443, 86% FT
Jayson Tatum: 12.4 AST%, .381 FTr, 85% FT

Hit 2 of the marks:
Brandon Ingram: 11.4 AST%, .351 FTr, 68% FT
Ben Simmons: 27.4 AST%, .769 FTr, 67% FT
Devin Booker: 10.9 AST%, .223 FTr, 83% FT
Donovan Mitchell: 16.0 AST%, .243 FTr, 81% FT
Pascal Siakam: 12.1 AST%, .396 FTr, 68% FT
Zion Williamson: 14.9 AST%, .467, 64% FT
Julius Randle: 10 AST%, .739 FTr, 70% FT
Jaylen Brown: 15.3 AST%, .574 FTr, 65% FT
Andrew Wiggins: 9.2 AST%, .538 FTr, 78% FT
Dejounte Murray: 25.6 AST%, .345 FTr, 66% FT
De’Aaron Fox: 28.6 AST%, .474 FTr, 74% FT
Tyrese Haliburton: 35.3 AST%, .184 FTr, 82% FT
Tyler Herro: 15 AST%, .231 FTr, 94% FT
Paolo Banchero: 17.5 AST%, .366 FTr, 73% FT
Scottie Barnes: 31.6 AST%, .338 FTr, 62% FT

Hit only 1 of the marks:
Zach LaVine: 12.6 AST%, .236 FTr, 69% FT

(*Only 5 games)


This year’s draft

Hit all three:
Cooper Flagg: 26.8 AST%, .429 FTr, 84% FT
Dylan Harper: 27.1 AST%, .419 FTr, 75% FT
VJ Edgecombe: 19.2 AST%, .373 FTr, 78% FT
Jeremiah Fears: 28.6 AST%, .518 FTr, 85% FT
Kon Knueppel: 15.7 AST%, .339 FTr, 91% FT
Kasparas Jaku: 26.0 AST%, .496 FTr, .85% FT
Derik Queen: 11.6 AST%, .546 FTr, 77% FT

Hit 2:
Tre Johnson: 16.5 AST%, .265 FTr, 87% FT


Hit None:
Ace Bailey: 8.3 AST%, .243, 69% FT

I mean the people you said hit the mark are nearly all guards (for all three hitting the mark) apart form Tatum. Bailey is an SF/PF. Would be interesting if you included current players who play his position. The FTr and passing rate are typical of high scoring and good passing guards.

[Negrodamus]

Is there any accountability for Ace for choosing to go to Rutgers with his buddy, play worse than him, doesn't persevere despite their shortcomings, and then phoned in the final 2 months of his season? No one forced him to go there. He was a top recruit; he could have gone to Duke if he wanted to.

Or is this part of the built in excuses used to continue his "can't miss" campaign?

Sad to see you've succumbed to the LeBron "stack the deck" mentality. I prefer guys like Giannis and Dirk who value loyalty.

You can look at him choosing Rutgers as a positive (instead of taking the easy road at Duke) if you leave behind your anti-Ace agenda.

You're really going to latch on to me saying Duke? How about literally anywhere else other than Rutgers. Go to Baylor like VJ Edgecombe did. Go to a place where a coach will teach you how to dribble, draw fouls, get to the rim...

[Arsenal]

Yeah I mean now you're comparing Ace to "wingish" players like Trae Young, Jalen Brunson, Tyrese Maxey, Ja Morant, Darius Garland, De'Aaron Fox, Jeremiah Fears, etc.

How exactly are any of those small guards "wingish"? Those are all point guards on this cherry-picked + sorted list.

[zaz102]

Regardless of stats, I think its clear that Ace's glaring weakness is playmaking. And I think the AST% and FTR match that.

I'm less worried about the free throw percentage as it could've just been a bad year especially since it's been reported that his senior year percentage was 90%.

However, his stats also show a lot of potential on shooting, defense, rebounding, and its clear that he has athleticism and length.

I feel like his likely floor if he doesn't develop playmaking skill would something like LaVine with better defense, Anunoby or Mikal with his ceiling if he did develop playmaking skill being something like Tatum or prime PG.

[Negrodamus]

Posted this in a thread on the Draft Board, but throwing it here. Nothing really new if you read my ramblings on these threads, but really wanted to hammer home that Ace shares little with NBA All Stars when they were coming into the league.

Would love someone who hits 10+ AST%, >.300 FTr, >75% FT (Disclaimer: I usually evaluate more than just these numbers but I do feel they are good markers)

Recent wing(ish) all stars college stats (AST%, FTr, FT) the year they went to the draft:

All Three hit mark:
Cade Cunningham: 20.4 AST%, .390 FTr, 85% FT
Jalen Williams: 22.6 AST%, .330 FTr, 81% FT
Jalen Brunson: 26.6 AST%, .313 FTr, 80% FT
Tyrese Maxey: 18.7 AST%, .322 FTr, 83% FT
Ant Edwards: 17.9 AST%, .339 FTr, 77% FT
Shai Gilgeous: ​​28.8 AST%, .464 FTr, 82% FT
Darius Garland*: 25.7 AST%, .296 FTr, 75% FT (I'll give it to him for being close with FTr)
Ja Morant: 51.8 AST%, .512 FTr, 81% FT
Fred VanVleet: 39.6 AST%, .393 FTr, 82% FT
Trae Young: 48.6 AST%, .443, 86% FT
Jayson Tatum: 12.4 AST%, .381 FTr, 85% FT

Hit 2 of the marks:
Brandon Ingram: 11.4 AST%, .351 FTr, 68% FT
Ben Simmons: 27.4 AST%, .769 FTr, 67% FT
Devin Booker: 10.9 AST%, .223 FTr, 83% FT
Donovan Mitchell: 16.0 AST%, .243 FTr, 81% FT
Pascal Siakam: 12.1 AST%, .396 FTr, 68% FT
Zion Williamson: 14.9 AST%, .467, 64% FT
Julius Randle: 10 AST%, .739 FTr, 70% FT
Jaylen Brown: 15.3 AST%, .574 FTr, 65% FT
Andrew Wiggins: 9.2 AST%, .538 FTr, 78% FT
Dejounte Murray: 25.6 AST%, .345 FTr, 66% FT
De’Aaron Fox: 28.6 AST%, .474 FTr, 74% FT
Tyrese Haliburton: 35.3 AST%, .184 FTr, 82% FT
Tyler Herro: 15 AST%, .231 FTr, 94% FT
Paolo Banchero: 17.5 AST%, .366 FTr, 73% FT
Scottie Barnes: 31.6 AST%, .338 FTr, 62% FT

Hit only 1 of the marks:
Zach LaVine: 12.6 AST%, .236 FTr, 69% FT

(*Only 5 games)


This year’s draft

Hit all three:
Cooper Flagg: 26.8 AST%, .429 FTr, 84% FT
Dylan Harper: 27.1 AST%, .419 FTr, 75% FT
VJ Edgecombe: 19.2 AST%, .373 FTr, 78% FT
Jeremiah Fears: 28.6 AST%, .518 FTr, 85% FT
Kon Knueppel: 15.7 AST%, .339 FTr, 91% FT
Kasparas Jaku: 26.0 AST%, .496 FTr, .85% FT
Derik Queen: 11.6 AST%, .546 FTr, 77% FT

Hit 2:
Tre Johnson: 16.5 AST%, .265 FTr, 87% FT


Hit None:
Ace Bailey: 8.3 AST%, .243, 69% FT

I mean the people you said hit the mark are nearly all guards (for all three hitting the mark) apart form Tatum. Bailey is an SF/PF. Would be interesting if you included current players who play his position. The FTr and passing rate are typical of high scoring and good passing guards.

I went to the all time all stars wikipedia page, filtered by most recent, and chose all non-C players for the past 4 years until I saw Mike Conley's name and felt the point had been made.

For some reason it's considered cherry picking to choose a distribution stat, a foul generating stat, and FT% (which has historically been a good indicator of future jumpshot shooting in the NBA) when trying to figure out which of these prospects has superstar traits. What current players who play his position are you looking for? Non All Stars?

[Arsenal]

Is there any accountability for Ace for choosing to go to Rutgers with his buddy, play worse than him, doesn't persevere despite their shortcomings, and then phoned in the final 2 months of his season? No one forced him to go there. He was a top recruit; he could have gone to Duke if he wanted to.

Or is this part of the built in excuses used to continue his "can't miss" campaign?

Sad to see you've succumbed to the LeBron "stack the deck" mentality. I prefer guys like Giannis and Dirk who value loyalty.

You can look at him choosing Rutgers as a positive (instead of taking the easy road at Duke) if you leave behind your anti-Ace agenda.

You're really going to latch on to me saying Duke? How about literally anywhere else other than Rutgers. Go to Baylor like VJ Edgecombe did. Go to a place where a coach will teach you how to dribble, draw fouls, get to the rim...

I don't care about his ability in choosing teammates as an 18-year-old. That's Daryl Morey's job in Philly.