HotelVitale wrote:First, the risk of offering Jrue a contract isn't going to go away if he plays pretty well and likes Embiid and Brett Brown etc. We know he's a pretty good player when healthy, the problems are that he's injury-prone and will cost a ton of money--despite being at best an average starter (albeit one who on paper fits well). That calculation doesn't change one bit depending on whatever Jrue does in March and April of this season.
Someone else pointed this out- but last year he played 65 games. He missed some back to backs early in the season as part of the recovery on his injury from the prior year. And then got elbowed in the eye (not really an "injury prone" type of injury) which caused him to miss 9 games at the end of the season.
This season, he missed some games early due to being there for his sick wife, which isn't a recurring problem or "injury prone" thing again.
Also, in his first 4 years in the league, he played in 95.5% of his games.
He literally had 2 seasons where he only played half the games, and it was due to the same stress fracture in his leg. So, 1 legit "injury" total that held him out, and NOP thought he could come back instead of opting for surgery, which was then forced later.
I really don't think it's fair to call him "injury prone" in any way. He's actually played in 78.60% of the games during his career. I wouldn't call that injury prone. I would call it unfortunate that the injury he suffered in 2013 wasn't addressed properly the first time around, and it caused him to miss more time. I would call it unfortunate that he got elbowed in the eye and it forced him to sit the last 9 games of a season. And I'd call it extremely unfortunate about his wife. Injury PRONE though? No.
As for cost, if we pay him $20M/year, at least we aren't paying Timofey Mozgov $20M/year. - I know this isn't a great counter-argument, I'm just pointing out there are worse places to spend that money.
As for point 2 - assuming your "core" group consists of 8 guys who will take up the most playoff minutes on a competitive roster...we know Simmons, Embiid, Saric, and TLC will MOST LIKELY be a part of that core group. Adding in Jrue makes 5/8. Even if you want to take TLC out of the equation, that's still a solid 4 who could arguably be considered "our core". Future or otherwise, if you sign Jrue to a 4 year deal, your next 4 years of "core group" guys are definitely Embiid/Simmons/Saric/Jrue. So, that's half of the core. I don't care about how the rookies will play in 2 years when they mature. That will be defined by how they develop. Who can help in that development? A veteran combo guard like Jrue? Yes. So, you've got 4-5 out of your 8 man "core" on the squad, and you know what helps in determining who the rest of the "core" will be? Knowing you've got 4 starters already locked in, and seeing them play together so you can analyze the team's strengths and weaknesses.
Third- you've got a solid point, i can concede this one.
Fourth- I've said I would do it if there was a pick or something coming back as well. And I've said I wouldn't include picks except for 2nd rounders with Okafor for it.