2013-2014 College Basketball / '14 NBA Draft Thread

[Negrodamus]

Also, I'd watch out for Mitch McGary. 1.8 spg before his injury. Mix that with his 13 rpg per 40 minutes and you have our PF of the future, as long as his back checks out.

[Bling76]

We have a very small sample size of a Hinkie draft (last year) but I noticed something that might project how we draft going forward. This could have be pointed out on here before and I didn't read it. If so, I apologize.

Michael Carter Williams was 6th in the nation in steals per game last year with 2.74. Combine that with his 6'6 height advantage at PG, incredible max vert, and you have an alluring PG.

Nerlens Noel was 35th in the nation in steals per game last year with 2.08. Very impressive given his position and height. Shows great instinct and mobility at the center position.

Arsalan Kazemi was 37th in the nation in steals per game last year with 2.06. 2nd rounder with mediocre height for his position, but was a double double machine and had a great steal per game rate for his position.


The top three in this draft (Parker, Wiggins, Embiid) didn't display great stats as it relates to steals. Not saying that it takes them out of the running for the 3rd pick, but they would be the first Hinkie players to be drafted with a sub 2.0 spg average in their most recent basketball season.

I don't know Exum's stats last year. I do know he was just shy of 2.0 spg in the U19 games. That said, I feel like he might be the closest thing to what Hinkie is looking for: a blend of size, talent, speed and ability to take away the ball and start the transition offense.

So, at this moment, I'm predicting Exum to the Sixers when the third pick comes around.

The 10th pick is obviously harder to predict. Let's assume that anyone from 5-10 can drop to 10. Smart would be a prototypical choice for the Sixers if we didn't have MCW and didn't just draft Exum. He was third in the nation in steals per game with 2.77. He also had around 3 steals per game last year.

Randle is out (.5). Vonleh is out (.9). McDermott is out (.2). Saric is out (1.3). In fact, I can't really see anyone that fits this mold until someone like TJ Warren (1.73) or Kyle Anderson (1.76).

This past year had a lower steal rate overall (probably because of all the touch foul calls) and the bigs suffered. I could see us possibly trading out of 10 and moving down for more picks (or future first rounders) if a team is interested.

I could also be overreacting over three picks last year.

I doubt Hinkie looks at steals as the end all be all, like I doubt it would preclude us from drafting Parker or Gordon, but the fact that:

-Hinkie is an analytics guru
-NCAA steals rate is a strong indicator of NBA success as per analytics studies
-3/3 of Hinkie's draft picks had > 2.5 steals/40

is absolutely not a coincidence. It seems that people took the MCW and Nerlens picks to mean that Hinkie wants tall, athletic, toolsy types. But when you throw Kazemi into the mix, a 6'7" PF with very questionable tools, it suggests that what he's really looking for are skilled all-around players and that he just prefers them to be tall and athletic, because no ****.

[51X3RF4N]

I think it would be very interesting to see the following occur on draft night:

Wiggins falls to #3, Sixers take Wiggins. He is an uber athlete and regardless of his offensive talent, he is going to be very good at the NBA level on defense and in transition.

Aaron Gordon falls to #10 and the Sixers take him. Gordon is an athletic freak as well. Putting him at PF next to Noel would mean teams have a very tough time scoring in the paint.

Sixers trade with someone in the top 15, giving up 2nd round picks and possibly Thad. Sixers select Zach LaVine.

This would give the Sixers the most athletic starting lineup in the NBA. MCW, LaVine, Wiggins, Gordon, Noel. Can you even imagine that team on defense and in the fast break?? It would be insane. Sure, they wouldn't score very easily in the half court offense, but I'm sure BB can figure out a way for that team to get some buckets. Lots of back door cuts and alley-oops.

It would be one of the most exciting teams to watch. 6'6, 6''6, 6'8, 6'9, 6'11.

If they win 20-30 games, so be it. Back to the 2015 lottery with a ridiculously athletic, young team.

[Kobblehead]

It's not just steals. It's blocks too. I created a new stat called "Defensive Impact Play Percentage" (or DIP%).

It's a simple formula. It's merely steal percentage + block percentage.

One could argue that throughout the course of an NBA game, a guy that can generate steals and blocks is more valuable than a guy that just plays good man defense.

This is a prime reason why I think just about everyone vastly underrates Parker defensively when projecting to the next level. He had a 6.1 DIP%. Better than both Andrew Wiggins and Aaron Gordon. Two guys that are getting overrated defensively.

[Negrodamus]

We have a very small sample size of a Hinkie draft (last year) but I noticed something that might project how we draft going forward. This could have be pointed out on here before and I didn't read it. If so, I apologize.

Michael Carter Williams was 6th in the nation in steals per game last year with 2.74. Combine that with his 6'6 height advantage at PG, incredible max vert, and you have an alluring PG.

Nerlens Noel was 35th in the nation in steals per game last year with 2.08. Very impressive given his position and height. Shows great instinct and mobility at the center position.

Arsalan Kazemi was 37th in the nation in steals per game last year with 2.06. 2nd rounder with mediocre height for his position, but was a double double machine and had a great steal per game rate for his position.


The top three in this draft (Parker, Wiggins, Embiid) didn't display great stats as it relates to steals. Not saying that it takes them out of the running for the 3rd pick, but they would be the first Hinkie players to be drafted with a sub 2.0 spg average in their most recent basketball season.

I don't know Exum's stats last year. I do know he was just shy of 2.0 spg in the U19 games. That said, I feel like he might be the closest thing to what Hinkie is looking for: a blend of size, talent, speed and ability to take away the ball and start the transition offense.

So, at this moment, I'm predicting Exum to the Sixers when the third pick comes around.

The 10th pick is obviously harder to predict. Let's assume that anyone from 5-10 can drop to 10. Smart would be a prototypical choice for the Sixers if we didn't have MCW and didn't just draft Exum. He was third in the nation in steals per game with 2.77. He also had around 3 steals per game last year.

Randle is out (.5). Vonleh is out (.9). McDermott is out (.2). Saric is out (1.3). In fact, I can't really see anyone that fits this mold until someone like TJ Warren (1.73) or Kyle Anderson (1.76).

This past year had a lower steal rate overall (probably because of all the touch foul calls) and the bigs suffered. I could see us possibly trading out of 10 and moving down for more picks (or future first rounders) if a team is interested.

I could also be overreacting over three picks last year.

I doubt Hinkie looks at steals as the end all be all, like I doubt it would preclude us from drafting Parker or Gordon, but the fact that:

-Hinkie is an analytics guru
-NCAA steals rate is a strong indicator of NBA success as per analytics studies
-3/3 of Hinkie's draft picks had > 2.5 steals/40

is absolutely not a coincidence. It seems that people took the MCW and Nerlens picks to mean that Hinkie wants tall, athletic, toolsy types. But when you throw Kazemi into the mix, a 6'7" PF with very questionable tools, it suggests that what he's really looking for are skilled all-around players and that he just prefers them to be tall and athletic, because no ****.

Yea, I didn't want it to come off as Hinkie only looking at steals, but rather that being one of the prerequisites for his selections. I'm sure he has a baseline steals per game average (possibly per 40 average). Each of the players he drafted brings a high level of other aspects of basketball to the table. The players that fit his mold will be attainable later in the first round, so I could definitely see him trading back.

Like I said above, Mitch McGary is looking more and more like a potential target for us.

[Kobblehead]

Mitch McGary with an 8.1 DIP%. VERY impressive.

[Bling76]

McGary would be a second round steal for sure. I don't see a huge difference between him and Julius Randle who's been bounced around at #3 (by fans, that is).

[Negrodamus]

McGary would be a second round steal for sure. I don't see a huge difference between him and Julius Randle who's been bounced around at #3 (by fans, that is).

If his back checks out, he won't last to the second round. I doubt he'd make it out of the top 20.

I love Randle, but he doesn't really generate many steals or blocks. McGary is presumably taller than him (I don't think he was measured at the combine).

Randle has a better face up game and is better at finishing at the hole. I think McGary is a better passer, rebounder. I honestly believe if McGary was healthy last year, he would have put up some pretty massive numbers and would be a top 10 pick right now. The marijuana thing doesn't bother me. I'm just worried about the back.

McGary would complement Noel quite well. It's an annoying comparison, but McGary reminds me of Love minus the jumpshot. I also think McGary has more of a willingness to play defense than Love at the same juncture of their careers. McGary will never be a 25+ ppg scorer, but I can definitely see him being a 10+ rpg role player. That would help out Noel immeasurably.

[dbodner]

Houston also drafted Chandler Parsons, Royce White, Terrence Jones and Marcus Morris, none of whom had particularly great steal rates. I think Hinkie is more nuanced than we frequently give him credit for.

[Negrodamus]

Houston also drafted Chandler Parsons, Royce White, Terrence Jones and Marcus Morris, none of whom had particularly great steal rates. I think Hinkie is more nuanced than we frequently give him credit for.

That's fair. Legitimate question: how much were those picks Hinkie's decision and not Morey? I'm sure they are cut from the same cloth in terms of statistical analyzing, so it wouldn't matter either way.

[Bling76]

All had very strong non-scoring stats though. I don't think anyone's implying that he just sorts by steals rate.

[Negrodamus]

I was looking for McGary vs Noel in HS video, and I found it.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ankiBV4Qnqg[/youtube]

Lets just say there's a reason Noel was the best player in HS and why I think he is one of the best post defenders I've ever seen. My goodness. McGary had absolutely no answer on offense.

[Kobblehead]

Houston also drafted Chandler Parsons, Royce White, Terrence Jones and Marcus Morris, none of whom had particularly great steal rates. I think Hinkie is more nuanced than we frequently give him credit for.

I think Hinkie is more individualized that you're giving him credit for. You're assuming that we he was on board for every one of those Morey selections.

[MRxBLACK]

Mitch McGary with an 8.1 DIP%. VERY impressive.

What would you classify Noel's 17.1 DIP% as? I can't find anyone higher. Anthony Davis had a 16.2

[Hardcore6erFan]

I think McGary will be very underwhelming as a pro.

[Kobblehead]

Mitch McGary with an 8.1 DIP%. VERY impressive.

What would you classify Noel's 17.1 DIP% as? I can't find anyone higher. Anthony Davis had a 16.2

God-like. Noel is one of the most unique defensive talents we've seen. His combination of agility and instincts is unfair. Even if he wasn't a great athlete that possessed great length.

[LloydFree]

Houston also drafted Chandler Parsons, Royce White, Terrence Jones and Marcus Morris, none of whom had particularly great steal rates. I think Hinkie is more nuanced than we frequently give him credit for.

That's fair. Legitimate question: how much were those picks Hinkie's decision and not Morey? I'm sure they are cut from the same cloth in terms of statistical analyzing, so it wouldn't matter either way.

It's not just steals. They look at Rebounds, blocks and assists too. Kazemi had a ridiculous amount of Rebounds, Carter Williams had a ridiculous amount of assists, Noel, for his position, had a ridiculous amount of everything.

[sixerswillrule]

I like the idea of pairing Noel with a bulkier PF/C like McGary. I also like the idea of paring him with an athletic, small ball PF like Gordon. That would be a nice rotation up front. Not necessarily those players, but Noel/big man with some strength/uptempo PF. Ideally at least one of those guys will be able to shoot, though.

[Negrodamus]

Houston also drafted Chandler Parsons, Royce White, Terrence Jones and Marcus Morris, none of whom had particularly great steal rates. I think Hinkie is more nuanced than we frequently give him credit for.

That's fair. Legitimate question: how much were those picks Hinkie's decision and not Morey? I'm sure they are cut from the same cloth in terms of statistical analyzing, so it wouldn't matter either way.

It's not just steals. They look at Rebounds, blocks and assists too. Kazemi had a ridiculous amount of Rebounds, Carter Williams had a ridiculous amount of assists, Noel, for his position, had a ridiculous amount of everything.

I already acknowledged that and I'm not sure the post you quoted said otherwise.

[Sixerscan]

We have a very small sample size of a Hinkie draft (last year) but I noticed something that might project how we draft going forward. This could have be pointed out on here before and I didn't read it. If so, I apologize.

Michael Carter Williams was 6th in the nation in steals per game last year with 2.74. Combine that with his 6'6 height advantage at PG, incredible max vert, and you have an alluring PG.

Nerlens Noel was 35th in the nation in steals per game last year with 2.08. Very impressive given his position and height. Shows great instinct and mobility at the center position.

Arsalan Kazemi was 37th in the nation in steals per game last year with 2.06. 2nd rounder with mediocre height for his position, but was a double double machine and had a great steal per game rate for his position.


The top three in this draft (Parker, Wiggins, Embiid) didn't display great stats as it relates to steals. Not saying that it takes them out of the running for the 3rd pick, but they would be the first Hinkie players to be drafted with a sub 2.0 spg average in their most recent basketball season.

I don't know Exum's stats last year. I do know he was just shy of 2.0 spg in the U19 games. That said, I feel like he might be the closest thing to what Hinkie is looking for: a blend of size, talent, speed and ability to take away the ball and start the transition offense.

So, at this moment, I'm predicting Exum to the Sixers when the third pick comes around.

The 10th pick is obviously harder to predict. Let's assume that anyone from 5-10 can drop to 10. Smart would be a prototypical choice for the Sixers if we didn't have MCW and didn't just draft Exum. He was third in the nation in steals per game with 2.77. He also had around 3 steals per game last year.

Randle is out (.5). Vonleh is out (.9). McDermott is out (.2). Saric is out (1.3). In fact, I can't really see anyone that fits this mold until someone like TJ Warren (1.73) or Kyle Anderson (1.76).

This past year had a lower steal rate overall (probably because of all the touch foul calls) and the bigs suffered. I could see us possibly trading out of 10 and moving down for more picks (or future first rounders) if a team is interested.

I could also be overreacting over three picks last year.

I think you are kind of missing the forrest for the trees. Hinkie wants to draft good basketball players. Determining who those are is a long process. Many good basketball players happen to have good steal rates.