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2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread

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Re: 2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#2781 » by Arsenal » Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:41 pm

Negrodamus wrote:
HotelVitale wrote:
Negrodamus wrote: Okay. You can take that stance. The "yea, he can do it in college, but not in the NBA" excuse is a bit lost on me. He's 6'5 with a 6'9 wingspan and has thrown down over Kentucky players. He's been one of the best defenders in the country. And offensive rebounds are not a matter of size, but rather determination. I think it was Larry Bird that said "most rebounds happen below the rim".
That's not really my stance. Almost every single player does stuff in the NCAA that isn't possible in the NBA, everyone's of course going to be a different player playing against guys who are smaller and slower and weaker on average. If you played high school ball, for example, you know that some players are totally dominant in JV but are role players on varsity, some are dominant on varsity but can't crack even a D3 college team, etc.

Point is, every prospect has to be seen in terms of NBA projectable skills and abilities. In that video, Thornwell isn't making NBA moves; that's not to say for sure he doesn't have them or can't develop them, but those drives look to me like he's just waltzing towards the lane fairly slowly and having guys hack at him. That's not a projectable NBA ability, or at least not one he'll be able to do all game--like say Tyreke Evans, who's the same size but has great quickness and devastating foot work (and still isn't that great in the NBA).

(I also sincerely hope you don't think that offensive rebounds are really about 'determination, not size.' It definitely helps to have determination--and you screwed without a basic nose for the ball--but you need size to be able to get them, end of story. Real NBA players are huge and do the correct fundamental thing like 90% of the time--coaches won't let them play otherwise--so that advantage will dry up pretty quickly (though a good motor of course always helps some.))


And naturally we're only talking about offense here, right? We're not acknowledging the dominate defense he plays, which is frequently a fatal flaw with evaluating prospects on here.

I'm not looking to make Sindarius our go-to ball handler. He's a role player on offense; spot up shooting with occasional driving if the opportunity presents itself.

And yes, I am saying that. You know who agrees with me? 6'6 Charles Barkley, 6'7 Wes Unseld, 6'7 Dennis Rodman, 6'7 Ben Wallace, 6'7 Shawn Marion, etc etc. All those guys are top 50 offensive rebounders all time from various eras. There's nothing special about them besides determination.


While I agree rebounding is in part about determination, you're overstating it. All the guys you mentioned were also amazing athletes.
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Re: 2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#2782 » by Negrodamus » Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:56 pm

Arsenal wrote:
Negrodamus wrote:
HotelVitale wrote: That's not really my stance. Almost every single player does stuff in the NCAA that isn't possible in the NBA, everyone's of course going to be a different player playing against guys who are smaller and slower and weaker on average. If you played high school ball, for example, you know that some players are totally dominant in JV but are role players on varsity, some are dominant on varsity but can't crack even a D3 college team, etc.

Point is, every prospect has to be seen in terms of NBA projectable skills and abilities. In that video, Thornwell isn't making NBA moves; that's not to say for sure he doesn't have them or can't develop them, but those drives look to me like he's just waltzing towards the lane fairly slowly and having guys hack at him. That's not a projectable NBA ability, or at least not one he'll be able to do all game--like say Tyreke Evans, who's the same size but has great quickness and devastating foot work (and still isn't that great in the NBA).

(I also sincerely hope you don't think that offensive rebounds are really about 'determination, not size.' It definitely helps to have determination--and you screwed without a basic nose for the ball--but you need size to be able to get them, end of story. Real NBA players are huge and do the correct fundamental thing like 90% of the time--coaches won't let them play otherwise--so that advantage will dry up pretty quickly (though a good motor of course always helps some.))


And naturally we're only talking about offense here, right? We're not acknowledging the dominate defense he plays, which is frequently a fatal flaw with evaluating prospects on here.

I'm not looking to make Sindarius our go-to ball handler. He's a role player on offense; spot up shooting with occasional driving if the opportunity presents itself.

And yes, I am saying that. You know who agrees with me? 6'6 Charles Barkley, 6'7 Wes Unseld, 6'7 Dennis Rodman, 6'7 Ben Wallace, 6'7 Shawn Marion, etc etc. All those guys are top 50 offensive rebounders all time from various eras. There's nothing special about them besides determination.


While I agree rebounding is in part about determination, you're overstating it. All the guys you mentioned were also amazing athletes.


Sigh, okay, any other caveats you guys want to throw in? I'm sure LeBron will be top 50 in O-Rebs because he's 6'8 and very athletic. Magic Johnson? More so than athleticism, because most rebounds are grabbed below the rim and athleticism usually leads to over the back calls, is positioning. Thornwell grabbed 10 OReb that game. Positioning and determination.

The point being is that Thornwell is averaging close to 3 OReb per game (7.5 overall) as a 6'5 shooting guard. I think he'll still get plenty of rebounds as an NBA role playing guard.
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Re: 2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#2783 » by Sampagne » Mon Feb 13, 2017 9:04 pm

best comparison ive seen for Thornwell is Paul Pierce
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Re: 2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#2784 » by HotelVitale » Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:03 pm

Negrodamus wrote: Sigh, okay, any other caveats you guys want to throw in? I'm sure LeBron will be top 50 in O-Rebs because he's 6'8 and very athletic. Magic Johnson? More so than athleticism, because most rebounds are grabbed below the rim and athleticism usually leads to over the back calls, is positioning. Thornwell grabbed 10 OReb that game. Positioning and determination. The point being is that Thornwell is averaging close to 3 OReb per game (7.5 overall) as a 6'5 shooting guard. I think he'll still get plenty of rebounds as an NBA role playing guard.
Sure, he'll probably get more offensive rebounds than than the average NBA guard. Big leap from there to 'he'll make a big enough impact as an offensive rebounder to earn a spot in the league,' though. If you think he's like an all-time great offensive rebounder, cool, we can leave it at that.
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Re: 2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#2785 » by shawn_hemp » Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:08 am

Rebounding is a combination of anticipating where the ball will go, positioning yourself properly, and being able to hold opposing players back from your hopefully superior position.

Length only makes it easier, but you still need the other traits.
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Re: 2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#2786 » by HankTheTank » Tue Feb 14, 2017 4:39 am

As of today I'm really only excited about 5 players. Ball, Jackson, Smith, Fultz, Isaac-- in that order, subject to change. Would take Tatum next, then lots of guys with question marks.
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Re: 2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#2787 » by LloydFree » Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:50 am

HankTheTank wrote:As of today I'm really only excited about 5 players. Ball, Jackson, Smith, Fultz, Isaac-- in that order, subject to change. Would take Tatum next, then lots of guys with question marks.

I agree with your order for the most part. I'm tryin to talk myself into liking Tatum a little more, but Im not there yet. I think I go Fox at #6.
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Re: 2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#2788 » by OleSchool » Tue Feb 14, 2017 12:19 pm

LloydFree wrote:
HankTheTank wrote:As of today I'm really only excited about 5 players. Ball, Jackson, Smith, Fultz, Isaac-- in that order, subject to change. Would take Tatum next, then lots of guys with question marks.

I agree with your order for the most part. I'm tryin to talk myself into liking Tatum a little more, but Im not there yet. I think I go Fox at #6.


I was just thinking of Fox as well, especially considering where our pick is going to fall.

Hopefully Lakers can get pushed to 4 and we can end up with 4 and 7?
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Re: 2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#2789 » by Negrodamus » Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:01 pm

HotelVitale wrote:
Negrodamus wrote: Sigh, okay, any other caveats you guys want to throw in? I'm sure LeBron will be top 50 in O-Rebs because he's 6'8 and very athletic. Magic Johnson? More so than athleticism, because most rebounds are grabbed below the rim and athleticism usually leads to over the back calls, is positioning. Thornwell grabbed 10 OReb that game. Positioning and determination. The point being is that Thornwell is averaging close to 3 OReb per game (7.5 overall) as a 6'5 shooting guard. I think he'll still get plenty of rebounds as an NBA role playing guard.
Sure, he'll probably get more offensive rebounds than than the average NBA guard. Big leap from there to 'he'll make a big enough impact as an offensive rebounder to earn a spot in the league,' though. If you think he's like an all-time great offensive rebounder, cool, we can leave it at that.



No, you cannot link my separate argument about o-rebs and determination (which was a complete tangent started from you) to the Thornwell being a very good role player prospect.

The original point of the offensive rebounds was to show that he was willing to bang down low with bigs and keep the possession alive, much like he is always dialed in on defense because defense leads to offense. It's a conversation about effort, something that many if the top prospects, especially at PG, don't show. Combine that with his impressive size and length, along with his ability to hit shots, you have a very nice prospect.

If you don't see that, then we disagree, and that's fine too.
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Re: 2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#2790 » by LloydFree » Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:53 pm

OleSchool wrote:
LloydFree wrote:
HankTheTank wrote:As of today I'm really only excited about 5 players. Ball, Jackson, Smith, Fultz, Isaac-- in that order, subject to change. Would take Tatum next, then lots of guys with question marks.

I agree with your order for the most part. I'm tryin to talk myself into liking Tatum a little more, but Im not there yet. I think I go Fox at #6.


I was just thinking of Fox as well, especially considering where our pick is going to fall.

Hopefully Lakers can get pushed to 4 and we can end up with 4 and 7?

Yeah, while I think Fox is probably the 6th best player, I'm undecided on whether I'd pass him up for a better fit with Simmons. The other issue with taking pure PG's, who are Freshman, is that they take forever to develop into useful players. Fox will probably be like Schroeder, and not be good until he's darn near on his 2nd contract.
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Re: 2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#2791 » by yourewrong » Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:59 pm

LloydFree wrote:
OleSchool wrote:
LloydFree wrote:I agree with your order for the most part. I'm tryin to talk myself into liking Tatum a little more, but Im not there yet. I think I go Fox at #6.


I was just thinking of Fox as well, especially considering where our pick is going to fall.

Hopefully Lakers can get pushed to 4 and we can end up with 4 and 7?

Yeah, while I think Fox is probably the 6th best player, I'm undecided on whether I'd pass him up for a better fit with Simmons. The other issue with taking pure PG's, who are Freshman, is that they take forever to develop into useful players. Fox will probably be like Schroeder, and not be good until he's darn near on his 2nd contract.

Think the only lesser talent I'd pass on Fox for is Issac. That tier of Tatum/Ntilikina/Giles is just bleh
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Re: 2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#2792 » by LloydFree » Tue Feb 14, 2017 3:20 pm

yourewrong wrote:
LloydFree wrote:
OleSchool wrote:
I was just thinking of Fox as well, especially considering where our pick is going to fall.

Hopefully Lakers can get pushed to 4 and we can end up with 4 and 7?

Yeah, while I think Fox is probably the 6th best player, I'm undecided on whether I'd pass him up for a better fit with Simmons. The other issue with taking pure PG's, who are Freshman, is that they take forever to develop into useful players. Fox will probably be like Schroeder, and not be good until he's darn near on his 2nd contract.

Think the only lesser talent I'd pass on Fox for is Issac. That tier of Tatum/Ntilikina/Giles is just bleh

Isaac isn't a lesser talent than Fox, IMO. He's #4 on my board... I wouldn't take either Ntilikina or Giles in the top 10, maybe not even in the lottery... With Tatum, right now? I'm just, eh. Sometimes he looks like nothing but a bench player, sometimes I squint hard and see a Danny Granger type. I'm having trouble figuring him out.
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Re: 2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#2793 » by Ericb5 » Tue Feb 14, 2017 5:52 pm

LloydFree wrote:
yourewrong wrote:
LloydFree wrote:Yeah, while I think Fox is probably the 6th best player, I'm undecided on whether I'd pass him up for a better fit with Simmons. The other issue with taking pure PG's, who are Freshman, is that they take forever to develop into useful players. Fox will probably be like Schroeder, and not be good until he's darn near on his 2nd contract.

Think the only lesser talent I'd pass on Fox for is Issac. That tier of Tatum/Ntilikina/Giles is just bleh

Isaac isn't a lesser talent than Fox, IMO. He's #4 on my board... I wouldn't take either Ntilikina or Giles in the top 10, maybe not even in the lottery... With Tatum, right now? I'm just, eh. Sometimes he looks like nothing but a bench player, sometimes I squint hard and see a Danny Granger type. I'm having trouble figuring him out.


I used to have Tatum at 4, but he has been passed by Smith and Isaac. I still think he should be at 6 though.


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Re: 2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#2794 » by Slizeezyc » Tue Feb 14, 2017 5:52 pm

LloydFree wrote:
HankTheTank wrote:As of today I'm really only excited about 5 players. Ball, Jackson, Smith, Fultz, Isaac-- in that order, subject to change. Would take Tatum next, then lots of guys with question marks.

I agree with your order for the most part. I'm tryin to talk myself into liking Tatum a little more, but Im not there yet. I think I go Fox at #6.


Tatum is just so robotic and stiff, it's weird almost. Seems like he has zero ad-lib skills -- just decides he's going to do X and does it to completion regardless of what changes around him.
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Re: 2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#2795 » by shawn_hemp » Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:23 pm

right now id put the players into tiers like this

Markelle Fultz, Josh Jackson, Jonathan Isaac, Lauri Markkanen, Lonzo Ball

in that order. For our team at least. I wouldnt be surprised if Markkanen turns out to be the most impactful player, but im not sure if he could do that for our team with Dario already here.

After that tier comes the next group

Malik Monk, Jayson Tatum, Dennis Smith Jr, De'Aaron Fox

which is probably what we will be drafting out of, considering the first tier are all very high on everyone's board with the exception of Markkanen but I doubt we would pick him

I think Monk might be the most sensible pick. It addresses our most dire need in a quality shooter, and we could play him at either one of our most needed positions.

No need to try and out-think ourselves and expect to hit on the next Kawhi Leonard type of player, just take the guy who you know can give you at least 15 ppg, stretch the floor simply with his presence, and has shown the capability to take over games when he is really on.

And just deal with the defensive questions as you go. I really dont think Monk will be as bad a defender in the NBA as everyone makes him out to be. He's still 18 years old, and scoring is what most young kids want to do. He has the size and athleticism to at least be passable on defense if he puts in the effort
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Re: 2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#2796 » by Unbreakable99 » Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:33 pm

The Sixers might win enough games to drop low enough to draft Monk at 8. That wouldn't be the worst thing.
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Re: 2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#2797 » by dkj5061 » Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:37 pm

shawn_hemp wrote:right now id put the players into tiers like this

Markelle Fultz, Josh Jackson, Jonathan Isaac, Lauri Markkanen, Lonzo Ball

in that order. For our team at least. I wouldnt be surprised if Markkanen turns out to be the most impactful player, but im not sure if he could do that for our team with Dario already here.

After that tier comes the next group

Malik Monk, Jayson Tatum, Dennis Smith Jr, De'Aaron Fox

which is probably what we will be drafting out of, considering the first tier are all very high on everyone's board with the exception of Markkanen but I doubt we would pick him

I think Monk might be the most sensible pick. It addresses our most dire need in a quality shooter, and we could play him at either one of our most needed positions.

No need to try and out-think ourselves and expect to hit on the next Kawhi Leonard type of player, just take the guy who you know can give you at least 15 ppg, stretch the floor simply with his presence, and has shown the capability to take over games when he is really on.

And just deal with the defensive questions as you go. I really dont think Monk will be as bad a defender in the NBA as everyone makes him out to be. He's still 18 years old, and scoring is what most young kids want to do. He has the size and athleticism to at least be passable on defense if he puts in the effort


I like your tiers, but I would put another split after Josh Jackson. I think he and Markelle Fultz are in a tier of their own.
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Re: 2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#2798 » by the_process » Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:43 pm

I'd be ecstatic with one of Fultz, Ball, Jackson, or Issac.
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Re: 2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#2799 » by Arsenal » Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:48 pm

Higher ranked players come first within a Tier.

Tier 1: NONE (this is the Anthony Davis, Karl Towns, healthy Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons tier)

Tier 2: Ball, Jackson, Fultz, Isaac

Tier 3: Monk, Tatum, Smith, Fox

Tier 4: Markkanen, Ntilikina, Bridges

I'm hoping we can get one guy each from Tier 2 and 3. We probably need the Lakers pick to convey at #4 to get a Tier 2 player, so I hope they finish as low as possible (meaning 2nd worst only ahead of Brooklyn).
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Re: 2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#2800 » by shawn_hemp » Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:51 pm

yeah I think Fultz and Jackson are ahead of the others as well. Not sure if one would be more deserving of going before the other though, depends on who is drafting first.

I really wouldnt mind if we drafted Markkanen but only if Simmons wasnt going to play at PF. Thats what is really making this complicated, nobody is sure where Ben will play at.

Ideally, IMO, we move on from Ersan, Simmons starts at SF, Dario starts at PF, Covington at SG, and we draft Markkanen to come off the bench. Another guy I think we should look at in the 2nd round is Chris Boucher from Oregon. He is 24 years old and has a pretty slight frame but he runs the floor really well, can hit corner 3's at a pretty good rate, and is a decent rim protector and someone who I think could be a good backup PF/C at 6'10 with a 7'3 1/2 wingspan

our lineup would be

PG: Jrue Holiday / TJ McConnell / Bayless
SG: Covington / Henderson / Stauskas
SF: Simmons / TLC / ??
PF: Saric / Markkanen / Chris Boucher
C: Embiid / Holmes / Chris Boucher

or something to that effect

am I the only one who sees a Dirk Nowitzki-type of player in Markkanen?

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