bebopdeluxe wrote:hookshot199 wrote:bebopdeluxe wrote:
I don't know if I agree with this "easily tradable" thing. If it is the summer of 2019 and we need cap space to sign Paul George or Klay Thompson, why won't another team grab us by the short hair the same way they will right now? Are you SURE Noel's value will increase - to be worth $25 mil a year - after being a bench guy (perhaps an unhappy bench guy) for two years? And what happens if he gets hurt during those two years?
If you are up for moving him midway through the deal, why put yourself in the position to match a crappy offer sheet in the first place? Just see if you can get some value for him and move on.
First, we're not getting Paul George. The new CBA lets Bird offer him six years at max. Thompson is another matter. As for other teams 'grabbing us by the shorts', we don't know that. I'm not saying they aren't, but equally plausible - because it's more logical - is that Team Colangelo is waiting to see where we draft, who draft, and who needs a center.
And please stop short-changing Noel by mentioning him in the context of a 10-20 pick. He would have been a number one pick had he not gotten injured. And he's done nothing to change that evaluation. He's an elite defensive player.
It does come down to two things: Can they find 30 minutes for him to play at 4 and 5? Can they find 30 minutes for Saric to play at 4, perhaps a few minutes at 3? It seems to me that the answer should be yes. We're talking of dividing 96 minutes.
I am confused. When you say that "Team Colangelo is waiting to see where we draft, who (we) draft, and who needs a center",
(1) does that statement imply that we do not trade Noel by the deadline, and teams that may be interested in signing him to an offer sheet will first see where they are in the draft order and who is available? If that is the case, then you are obviously of the mind that you are willing to either
(2)1) pay Noel 4/100 if he gets a sheet like that, or 2) let him walk for nothing.
Is that right?
And if you think that this team is BEST served by building a roster ad apportioning time where Nerlens Noel plays 12-15 minutes at the 4...well, I respect your opinion, but I could not disagree with it more.
Lastly, I will short-change Noel's value all I want, because his value IS compromised. He is a RFA. And just like Porter or KCP, there is nothing that the Sixers can do to prevent a team from hitting him with a max offer. The difference is that Porter and KCP are core, 35 mpg guys for their respective teams - so WAS or DET can match those sheets and feel good that they are getting 35 minutes a game fromthose guys that fits EXACTLY what those teams want and need. That argument simply cannot be made about Noel (which is why you and others keep banging that "play the 4 12-15 mpg" square peg into the "backup center" round hole).
And, again, forgetting whether it makes sense to have Noel playing 12-15 mpg at the 4 (which I absloutley do NOT think is the case), why EXACTLY will Noel be happy being told, "sorry, bro...we know you wanted yo be a 35 mpg center, but we matched the offer sheet, so have fun playing the 4 a bunch and sitting every game at crunch time"?
Absolutely. Wait. As things stand as of this morning, the trajectory for the Lakers pick is moving toward a 30%-50% chance (47% to be precise) of not being conveyed this season. Our pick is on a trajectory of being 8, 9 or 10. What that means is that we have a 47% chance, if the Lakers finish third, not to be in the market for Ball, Fultz, Smith, Ntilikina, Jackson, even Fox. Perhaps not Monk. So it makes all the difference in the world if we're not going to have a shot at one of the primo-guards.
Which means, maybe, that you overpay for Patty Mills.
That scenario, of falling out of the top five and perhaps even the top 10, could fundamentally alter the payroll analysis I've shown you. It still won't penalize our billionaire owner for Years 1 through 3. But Year 4 becomes more problematic.
So, we should wait until June, even for trading Okafor in my opinion. Because contrary to what you say, there are no centers in this draft that offer the immediate upside of either Noel or Okafor.
Yes, I would be willing to pay Noel $100 mil for four years, if that happens. Again, we're talking about two teams (Brooklyn and Dallas) unless I missed something. If there's someone else who has the cap space or doesn't have a young front court, please offer a name. Unlike most other teams, the Sixers can pay 75% of a max contract without affecting our 2018 signing of Embiid and 2020 signings of Simmons and Saric.
As for the rest - in particular Noel being unhappy - your speculation is no better than mine. All we do on this forum, most of us at least, is share our opinions. And Dirty Harry nailed that one down pretty good. I've tried to give you some numbers to support my speculation, my opinion. If you've got better numbers, pray tell. Enjoy your day.
