So what's the pivot? (Beal, Lavine, or smaller moves)? - Post Harden ideas and rumors

[youngcrev]

If you added Zach LaVine to this team without losing any rotation players, how many wins do you think it adds to our total?

I'm actually in favor of going after him, but I think the answer to that question is not many. I do think he increases their ceiling though.

[skulky]

Lavine scores a ton of points on huge volume and elite efficiency. The whole narrative of “good stats bad team” is extremely tired and lazy at this point.

He’s a very good player, and certainly a lot better than Simmons at the moment.

I think you need to add the caveat of "so far this season" before the first sentence. We're dealing with a pretty small sample size at the moment, and he's a guy that's typically around league average in efficiency.

Yes a smaller sample size that equates to about a quarter of the season. His numbers were pretty efficient last season and yes smaller sample size but don’t think it’s a stretch to say he’s improved some this year. His efficiency has improved every year so labeling him league average efficiency is based on what?

[Iverson Armband]

Lavine scores a ton of points on huge volume and elite efficiency. The whole narrative of “good stats bad team” is extremely tired and lazy at this point.

He’s a very good player, and certainly a lot better than Simmons at the moment.

I think you need to add the caveat of "so far this season" before the first sentence. We're dealing with a pretty small sample size at the moment, and he's a guy that's typically around league average in efficiency.

He trends more towards elite than average in efficiency the last 2 and a quarter years.

[Iverson Armband]

Like? Simmons is way better defensively. Lavine is way better offensively. Offensive creation is way more important to this team right now.

If we use a 1-10 scale and Player A is a "10" defensively and a "5" offensively and Player B is an "8" offensively and a "2" defensively, those players are not equal - even if offense is more important then defense.

You see Ben as a 5 offensively? Wow. That's generous. I see him as a -1. Defenses literally don't have to worry about him, and it creates a situation where the rest of the team has to work harder to beat double teams and space the floor even more than they should have to, in order to accommodate Ben.

I'm not arguing Lavine vs. Ben, just giving my number on Ben's offensive scale.

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You can’t not make FT’s, get to the line, shoot 3s or a shot more than 5ft from the basket and be anything close to an average NBA player offensively. It’s absurd. He gets “2” because he’s ok in transition until he turns his back and jump passes

[youngcrev]

Lavine scores a ton of points on huge volume and elite efficiency. The whole narrative of “good stats bad team” is extremely tired and lazy at this point.

He’s a very good player, and certainly a lot better than Simmons at the moment.

I think you need to add the caveat of "so far this season" before the first sentence. We're dealing with a pretty small sample size at the moment, and he's a guy that's typically around league average in efficiency.

Yes a smaller sample size that equates to about a quarter of the season. His numbers were pretty efficient last season and yes smaller sample size but don’t think it’s a stretch to say he’s improved some this year. His efficiency has improved every year so labeling him league average efficiency is based on what?

League average TS was 56.5 last year and 56 the year before.

Last year he was 56.8%, year before 57.4%, career 55.9%

So he's been a little above, but nowhere near elite.

This year has been a major outlier, and while I'm not writing off improvement, I'd say that 64%TS he's putting up right is likely to normalize at a lower rate (potential much lower with how drastic the difference is)

[Iverson Armband]

I think you need to add the caveat of "so far this season" before the first sentence. We're dealing with a pretty small sample size at the moment, and he's a guy that's typically around league average in efficiency.

Yes a smaller sample size that equates to about a quarter of the season. His numbers were pretty efficient last season and yes smaller sample size but don’t think it’s a stretch to say he’s improved some this year. His efficiency has improved every year so labeling him league average efficiency is based on what?

League average TS is around 56%

Last year he was 56.8%, year before 57.4%, career 55.9%

So he's been a little above, but nowhere near elite.

This year has been a major outlier, and while I'm not writing off improvement, I'd say that 64%TS he's putting up right is likely to normalize at a lower rate (potential much lower with how drastic the difference is)

You have to take in to account this is being done on bad teams with limited talented. Those numbers are extremely impressive under those circumstances. It’s not like he’s some inefficient chucker people here try to make him out to be. Surround him with Embiid and the talent on this roster and I think he takes off on another level.

[youngcrev]

Yes a smaller sample size that equates to about a quarter of the season. His numbers were pretty efficient last season and yes smaller sample size but don’t think it’s a stretch to say he’s improved some this year. His efficiency has improved every year so labeling him league average efficiency is based on what?

League average TS is around 56%

Last year he was 56.8%, year before 57.4%, career 55.9%

So he's been a little above, but nowhere near elite.

This year has been a major outlier, and while I'm not writing off improvement, I'd say that 64%TS he's putting up right is likely to normalize at a lower rate (potential much lower with how drastic the difference is)

You have to take in to account this is being done on bad teams with limited talented. Those numbers are extremely impressive under those circumstances. Surround him with Embiid and the talent on this roster and I think he takes off on another level.

You also have to take into account that his point totals are on a bad team with a usage rate he wouldn't get close to on good team.

I think it's fair to say he could be more efficient here than he has been. Its just incorrect to say he's been doing this at elite efficiency beyond this season.

[Iverson Armband]

League average TS is around 56%

Last year he was 56.8%, year before 57.4%, career 55.9%

So he's been a little above, but nowhere near elite.

This year has been a major outlier, and while I'm not writing off improvement, I'd say that 64%TS he's putting up right is likely to normalize at a lower rate (potential much lower with how drastic the difference is)

You have to take in to account this is being done on bad teams with limited talented. Those numbers are extremely impressive under those circumstances. Surround him with Embiid and the talent on this roster and I think he takes off on another level.

You also have to take into account that his point totals are on a bad team with a usage rate he wouldn't get close to on good team.

I think it's fair to say he could be more efficient here than he has been. Its just incorrect to say he's been doing this at elite efficiency beyond this season.

That’s fair. But if you shave 6-8 points off his average and he maintains that efficiency or ups it to the degree that we agree is likely, that’s the type of wing player you want next to Joel Embiid.

[76ciology]

If we trade Ben, we just have to find someone who can limit Duncan Robinson to not more than 26pts.

Jk guys

If we trade Ben for Lavine, it’s fair we ask atleast 1 1st round pick from the Bulls.

Or maybe we trade Poirier, Ferguson, Bradley and the trade exemption for Otto Porter also.

[youngcrev]

You have to take in to account this is being done on bad teams with limited talented. Those numbers are extremely impressive under those circumstances. Surround him with Embiid and the talent on this roster and I think he takes off on another level.

You also have to take into account that his point totals are on a bad team with a usage rate he wouldn't get close to on good team.

I think it's fair to say he could be more efficient here than he has been. Its just incorrect to say he's been doing this at elite efficiency beyond this season.

That’s fair. But if you shave 6-8 points off his average and he maintains that efficiency or ups it to the degree that we agree is likely, that’s the type of wing player you want next to Joel Embiid.

You're talking his current efficiency this year? I don't think it's sustainable no matter what you do with his role. Just for point of reference on sample size, Seth Curry is currently at 79.6 TS%

Regardless, I think he'd be helpful to the team as a guy that can make tough shots off the dribble and shoot for volume from 3. I'm just not willing to give up Embiid, Simmons or Shake Milton in a deal for him

[TTP]

League average TS is around 56%

Last year he was 56.8%, year before 57.4%, career 55.9%

So he's been a little above, but nowhere near elite.

This year has been a major outlier, and while I'm not writing off improvement, I'd say that 64%TS he's putting up right is likely to normalize at a lower rate (potential much lower with how drastic the difference is)

You have to take in to account this is being done on bad teams with limited talented. Those numbers are extremely impressive under those circumstances. Surround him with Embiid and the talent on this roster and I think he takes off on another level.

You also have to take into account that his point totals are on a bad team with a usage rate he wouldn't get close to on good team.

I think it's fair to say he could be more efficient here than he has been. Its just incorrect to say he's been doing this at elite efficiency beyond this season.

You also have to take into account that if he's the highest usage player on bad teams, it's possible that he's a primary reason that they're a bad team. He's the common denominator for all of those bad teams he's been on.

Also, if he's not capable of elevating a bad team, how is he going to be elevating a good team? If he were an actual difference maker, he'd be making a difference.

[skulky]

League average TS is around 56%

Last year he was 56.8%, year before 57.4%, career 55.9%

So he's been a little above, but nowhere near elite.

This year has been a major outlier, and while I'm not writing off improvement, I'd say that 64%TS he's putting up right is likely to normalize at a lower rate (potential much lower with how drastic the difference is)

You have to take in to account this is being done on bad teams with limited talented. Those numbers are extremely impressive under those circumstances. Surround him with Embiid and the talent on this roster and I think he takes off on another level.

You also have to take into account that his point totals are on a bad team with a usage rate he wouldn't get close to on good team.

I think it's fair to say he could be more efficient here than he has been. Its just incorrect to say he's been doing this at elite efficiency beyond this season.

Your earlier comment even concedes his ts% is above average and you’re trying to take it out of context. His efficiency is even more impressive with everything you and iverson armband are mentioning. Last year Lavine had 31.7 usage rate and season before 30.5. He was putting up a ton of shots and initiating the offense on a bad team when he was the main focus of the opposing defense, and he still shot above average.
This year he’s playing with a better coach, playing within the flow less forced shots, just look at his 2 pt fg% and attempts. Last year 11.9 attempts and 2p% 49.7. This season 9.8 attempts with a 2p% 59.9. Again smaller sample size but that’s a huge shift. Even if he regresses and you split the difference in 2p%, he’s still going to be over 60% true shooting.

Now put him in a defined role, next to embiid and not the only focus of the defense and I don’t think it’s a stretch for him to have low to mid 60s ts% on volume.

[Black Mage]

Beal or Lavine require us to surrender Ben, I just don't see any other way around that.

While Green does get a lot of deflections, he also gets cooked man on man. I do not like any match up where Green is asked to cover Harden/Kyrie/KD just from a physical limitation at this stage of his career.

If we keep Ben (I think our most likely and best choice unless a true superstar comes around) then moving Danny is our likely our only option.

[GutUNC]

If we use a 1-10 scale and Player A is a "10" defensively and a "5" offensively and Player B is an "8" offensively and a "2" defensively, those players are not equal - even if offense is more important then defense.

You see Ben as a 5 offensively? Wow. That's generous. I see him as a -1. Defenses literally don't have to worry about him, and it creates a situation where the rest of the team has to work harder to beat double teams and space the floor even more than they should have to, in order to accommodate Ben.

I'm not arguing Lavine vs. Ben, just giving my number on Ben's offensive scale.

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You can’t not make FT’s, get to the line, shoot 3s or a shot more than 5ft from the basket and be anything close to an average NBA player offensively. It’s absurd. He gets “2” because he’s ok in transition until he turns his back and jump passes

Is there a number of times you need me to tell you the numbers were being used as an abstract to refute the "Offense>Defense so Lavine is better" argument and not an actual assessment of Simmons/Lavine or are you just going to keep winning the same argument with yourself?

[TTP]

You have to take in to account this is being done on bad teams with limited talented. Those numbers are extremely impressive under those circumstances. Surround him with Embiid and the talent on this roster and I think he takes off on another level.

You also have to take into account that his point totals are on a bad team with a usage rate he wouldn't get close to on good team.

I think it's fair to say he could be more efficient here than he has been. Its just incorrect to say he's been doing this at elite efficiency beyond this season.

Your earlier comment even concedes his ts% is above average and you’re trying to take it out of context. His efficiency is even more impressive with everything you and iverson armband are mentioning. Last year Lavine had 31.7 usage rate and season before 30.5. He was putting up a ton of shots and initiating the offense on a bad team when he was the main focus of the opposing defense, and he still shot above average.
This year he’s playing with a better coach, playing within the flow less forced shots, just look at his 2 pt fg% and attempts. Last year 11.9 attempts and 2p% 49.7. This season 9.8 attempts with a 2p% 59.9. Again smaller sample size but that’s a huge shift. Even if he regresses and you split the difference in 2p%, he’s still going to be over 60% true shooting.

Now put him in a defined role, next to embiid and not the only focus of the defense and I don’t think it’s a stretch for him to have low to mid 60s ts% on volume.

Guys with 25%+ USG and 62%+ TS% in either of the last two seasons:

KAT (twice)
Lillard
Harden
Giannis
Curry
Durant

It's definitely a stretch to suggest that LaVine can reach mid 60s TS% on volume and end up in that group.

[Iverson Armband]

You have to take in to account this is being done on bad teams with limited talented. Those numbers are extremely impressive under those circumstances. Surround him with Embiid and the talent on this roster and I think he takes off on another level.

You also have to take into account that his point totals are on a bad team with a usage rate he wouldn't get close to on good team.

I think it's fair to say he could be more efficient here than he has been. Its just incorrect to say he's been doing this at elite efficiency beyond this season.

You also have to take into account that if he's the highest usage player on bad teams, it's possible that he's a primary reason that they're a bad team. He's the common denominator for all of those bad teams he's been on.

Also, if he's not capable of elevating a bad team, how is he going to be elevating a good team? If he were an actual difference maker, he'd be making a difference.

You must think every good player on a bad team isn’t good then. If that’s your argument, then there is nothing further to discuss.

Put Simmons on any of those Bulls teams in place of Lavine, and see how much he “impacts winning”. LOL

[TTP]

You also have to take into account that his point totals are on a bad team with a usage rate he wouldn't get close to on good team.

I think it's fair to say he could be more efficient here than he has been. Its just incorrect to say he's been doing this at elite efficiency beyond this season.

You also have to take into account that if he's the highest usage player on bad teams, it's possible that he's a primary reason that they're a bad team. He's the common denominator for all of those bad teams he's been on.

Also, if he's not capable of elevating a bad team, how is he going to be elevating a good team? If he were an actual difference maker, he'd be making a difference.

You must think every good player on a bad team isn’t good then. If that’s your argument, then there is nothing further to discuss.

No, because good players on bad teams typically have their team perform better when they're on the court.

Take KAT for an example. He's always elevated his teams - he's had positive on/offs every year of his career. His teams clearly play better when he's out there.

You can do the same for Pelicans Anthony Davis as well - he was generally massively elevating the Pelicans while he was on the floor.

LaVine is the opposite. He's never elevated his teams - he's had negative on/offs every year of his career but one. His teams clearly play worse when he's out there.

[Mik317]

Ben's defense is both underrated and overrated lol.

KD will light him up. He will light up most players...he lit up LeBron **** James FFS. However Ben's defense is key to not have to double and force one dude to beat them by himself. Kawhii did just that lol but it still took a gdlk shot for it to happen. So the question isn't keeping Ben so he can lock down dudes but rather having a guy who can take the brunt of a scorer and occasionally win some possesions solo. The Beal 60 was nuts and Danny was toast but it also meant no one else was involved and we ended up winning because Westbrook decided to jack shots. Last years playoff, Tatum got easy looks that he did not always get against Ben and via trying to get the ball out of his hands, Brown and Smart also got involved. IDK its not the cut and dry solution either way tho.

Getting a shot creator opens up this team big time tho..we see it with raw ones like Maxey and Shake. Getting that guy AND keeping Ben would be nuts IMO and opens up a whole lot. Doing it at the expense of Ben seems to open up another hole in the sinking ship....but if dudes like Tucker are available for some seconds or dudes off the street like RHJ are ready to come in and be that guy....you might have to think about it.

My whole thing is tho...I don't think there is a direct pathway to contending for real this year anyway (barring injury of course) so I am fine with taking our lumps for once instead of the constant scramble to fix issues at the expense of the future...especially this year when the final standings will be wonky as **** more than likely

[76ciology]

Ok. Let’s say Ben is much better than Lavine.

Lavine and atleast how many picks for Ben? 2?

Nobody wouldnt want to get more assets for Ben.

[76ciology]

Is there any evidence that we will slide from being an elite defensive team into a something worse if we traded Ben for a guy like Robert Covington, Derrick Jones Jr, Aaron Gordon, Otto Porter?

Can’t we be a much better team say we trade Ben and expirings for Lavine and Otto Porter? A big upgrade on offense while a slight drop (if there’s any) on defense.

Zach Lavine
Shake Milton
Otto Porter
Tobias Harris
Joel Embiid

This team worse?

If defense is still a problem..

Zach Lavine
Danny Green
Otto Porter
Tobias Harris
Joel Embiid