PLO wrote:HankTheTank wrote:LloydFree wrote:I'm not a big fan of this draft, because I think it's massively over-rated, but for that reason I'm the opposite. I'm against trading down because I think there are only a couple All-star potential players in this draft.
^ This. The worst thing BC could do is try to get cute here. I really like Isaac's potential, and DSJ could easily end up one of the best 3 players in this draft, but the player flaws and risk get greater as you drop down. Jackson and Ball are the surest things in this draft.
And yet they aren't. One doesn't even have the requisite skills for the position he's going to be drafted for, the other's main calling card (defense) will be badly exposed vs NBA level competition and both of them have dodgy shots to boot. The two safest picks in this draft are Fultz and Jayson Tatum, closely followed by Jon Isaac. Ball is much like Lauri Markannen in that they have one elite attribute, its a wonder to me why both aren't rated similarly in this draft; at least we know Markannen's attribute is going to transfer much more readily to the NBA, Ball's vision could just well be a product of his own very obvious limitations and he might not get to use it much anyway given he's likely a SG at the next level. In other words Markannen's shooting is a true outlier; Ball's passing will only just be good in the NBA (when you factor in the limited situations in which he'll get to use it and given he's a complete non-threat in other areas of his game). If Markannen is rated outside the top 10 I really can't see any reason why Ball shouldn't be as well.
I disagree if we're talking chance at being exceptional. Analyzing the top prospects, I look for which tool could carry them to being elite. Ball's bbiq, vision and passing are extraordinary. Kidd, Simmons, Bird like. Jackson's athleticism for a 6'8 wing is rare. If his shot continues to improve --like it did second half of the year-- %50 3pt and 63.75% FT-- he'll be a star. I've yet to see any experts recognize his improvement there. Instead, they fidget over his FT%, which is why we might just be lucky enough to get him at 3.
Isaac, you'll get no argument from me, I may take him at 4 despite our obvious need, but he is raw in every way. He likely needs to be a 4, can he put on mass and strength? Does he have the mentality to take over a game?
Fultz, I think he is good at everything, but I'm not certain he'll be a star. Which tool will make Fultz elite? Taytum, same thing. Both have a high floor for me, so in the sense that they're unlikely to bust they are safe picks to me.
