smittybanton wrote:What would I do if I were Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka?
The way I see it, the Lakers cannot build a championship contendor or perennial playoff team if they don’t find a way to move Luol Deng and Timofey Mozgov by Summer 2018.
In my opinion the Lakers need a true point guard, because D’Angelo Russell is not one. He’s an above average shooting guard, though. Jordan Clarkson is also either a shooting guard or a combo guard, but not a point.
The Lakers also need a stretch four, and a true Center. Neither Julius Randle, nor Larry Nance fit that bill. One has to go. Nance is the better defender, although Julius Randle can play a little small ball center so long as you’re not expecting blocked shots.
Brandon Ingram could be that guy in time. But he’s at least two years away from being that dude. Ivica Zubac could be a starting center, but he’s also two years away. The problem is, do you want to bring Paul George onto a team at a time when those complementary players aren’t ready for Showtime? You’d rather have a team ready in 2018 that plugs Paul George in amongst guys ready to win.
Because the Lakers need $30M in cap space to get Paul George in 2018, the Lakers free agency moves in 2017 cannot block that path. Right now, they have about $81M in salary, plus capholds for their draft picks. (Deng17m, Mozgov15m, Clarkson11.5M, Brewer7.5M, Black6.5M, Young5.5M(PO), Russell5.5m, Ingram5.5M, Randle4M, Nance1M, Zubac1M, Nwaba1M). So, they should have around $15M to spend right now.
Next year, the Lakers shed about $20M in salary when deadweight, like Corey Brewer, Tarik Black and Nick Young, comes off the books. Combine that with this year’s space and that’s $35M, enough to land Paul George. Problem is, a) they have to get to the salary cap floor this year, $90M, and b) more importantly, they MUST build a team Paul George wants to come to.
So I predict the Lakers will spend their free agent money this year to acquire at least one veteran player Paul George will respect, to go along with young players like Ingram and Zubac who should improve. Next summer, 2018, I believe they will move Jordan Clarkson’s $13M for what they hope will be a first round pick in a draft that finally has centers they could use. That'll give them the $30M they need for George.
Obviously, Deng and Mozgov have two of the worst contracts, and they don’t expire until 2020. Same with Jordan Clarkson’s deal. The Lakers don’t have a lot of future draft picks in stock, so its hard to imagine them being able to trade either of those guys. Clarkson, however, will get you something.
However, drastic times take drastic measures. I use a future LA first round pick to move Deng and Mozgov’s contracts, so that I can use their $30M to sign Derrick Favors, since the Jazz are highly unlikely to pay him after re-signing Gobert and Hayward. Favors and Zubac form the center tandem the Lakers need.
So Paul George and Derrick Favors in 2018.
But what about 2017? The Lakers are not a playoff team, and therefore cannot attract any of the top names. This is just not a good free agent year. Nerlens Noel is not leaving Dallas. Can’t afford Blake Griffin or Serge Ibaka. They would be compounding the Deng and Mozgov mistakes if they spent their $10-$15M on a center like Cristiano Felicio.
Chris Bosh is the stretch four the Lakers can sign this year a) for not a lot of money, b) not a lot of years, c) but who brings a respected veteran presence that would be attractive to Paul George and Derrick Favors. Rob Pelinka, the Lakers newly installed GM, was Chris Bosh’s agent before moving to Hollywood. If Bosh plays, great. If not, the Lakers get season tickets and player goodwill worth more than the $5M or so they’ll have to pay him (assuming there’s not a great market for the risk that comes with his service).
Other power forwards the Lakers could get for less than $15M include: Ersan Ilyasova, Nikola Mirotic, Amir Johnson?
The best I think I could do for the Lakers if I was GM would be Lonzo Ball, D’Angelo Russell, Paul George, Chris Bosh/Brandon Ingram, Derrick Favors. But getting that lineup in 2018 means I wont be making a lot of trades or free agent signings that add players in 2017.
So, the bottom line is, no, I don’t think the Lakers will be very good next year, and their pick will be in the top six or seven..
Good post, but the Lakers can't trade a first round pick earlier than 2020, and that is far enough out for the pick to have no incentive for teams that want to take on current salary, especially for non difference makers like Deng, and Mozgov.
If Hinkie was running a team today, he wouldn't take a 2020 first round pick to take Deng or Mozgov. They both have 3 more years at big money.
If the Lakers are going to move one of those guys it will have to be with someone like Russell, and that's a stiff price to pay. The time to do that would be this summer because if Russell has another year like last year his value will go down, and if he has a better year then it will be that much harder for Magic to trade him.
I also don't get the vibe that they need to do anything other than have the cap space to get George.
They may be able to trade Clarkson, but not for anything that moves the needle.
If I were them I would take Ball without question. Then I would seriously look at packaging Russell with Deng/Mozgov this summer to get something of value, and try to change the locker room. Ball and Ingram become the core, George comes the following year, and you have salary flexibility to build around them.
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. I can already see it now. We already have Jackson and Covington and Simmons. How can we draft Doncic? He won't start and if he does then who goes to the bench? We have too many forwards. Do you think we can trade Jackson for the number 3 pick? When will we get another PG? All we do is draft Forwards. I'm tired of it.
*INGRAM*ALLSTARSEASON* Wemby is HIM - Top 5 Player this year
