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Moreyball: Finding the Undervalued Stock?

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Re: Moreyball: Finding the Undervalued Stock? 

Post#41 » by Stanford » Fri Nov 6, 2020 3:28 pm

Oh, I agree that any trade of Ben Simmons for anyone who isn't obviously better than him would be dumb.
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Re: Moreyball: Finding the Undervalued Stock? 

Post#42 » by Arsenal » Sat Nov 7, 2020 12:06 am

Stanford wrote:Oh, I agree that any trade of Ben Simmons for anyone who isn't obviously better than him would be dumb.


This.

If we're talking about shipping Simmons, then the guy I really want is Giannis. He's going to want out sooner or later and Simmons will be the best piece on the table they could get back.
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Re: Moreyball: Finding the Undervalued Stock? 

Post#43 » by ProcessDoctor » Sat Nov 7, 2020 1:46 am

I wouldn't be shocked if LaVine ends up being Morey's primary target (outside of aiming high for Harden). A young playmaking guard that's somewhat underappreciated on a losing team. Hard to tell which direction Chicago is going in though.

Booker is probably staying in Phoenix. Beal would cost a fortune. Paul is great but only presents a very short-term solution. Hield is good, but is not a playmaker. Holiday maybe? Could be a bidding war we can't keep up with. Oladipo is another option, but would Morey blow our few remaining assets on such an uncertainty?
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Re: Moreyball: Finding the Undervalued Stock? 

Post#44 » by davesilver » Sat Nov 7, 2020 2:01 am

Arsenal wrote:
Stanford wrote:Oh, I agree that any trade of Ben Simmons for anyone who isn't obviously better than him would be dumb.


This.

If we're talking about shipping Simmons, then the guy I really want is Giannis. He's going to want out sooner or later and Simmons will be the best piece on the table they could get back.


This is interesting. Simmons is a Giannis-lite, and if Milwaukee wants to continue to contend without shaking up their roster outside of Giannis, a swap would make sense (with additional filler to make it fair).
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Re: Moreyball: Finding the Undervalued Stock? 

Post#45 » by davesilver » Sat Nov 7, 2020 2:10 am

ProcessDoctor wrote:I wouldn't be shocked if LaVine ends up being Morey's primary target (outside of aiming high for Harden). A young playmaking guard that's somewhat underappreciated on a losing team. Hard to tell which direction Chicago is going in though.

Booker is probably staying in Phoenix. Beal would cost a fortune. Paul is great but only presents a very short-term solution. Hield is good, but is not a playmaker. Holiday maybe? Could be a bidding war we can't keep up with. Oladipo is another option, but would Morey blow our few remaining assets on such an uncertainty?


I wonder if Chicago would be interested in a Jrich + future 1st + Tobias <-> Lavine + Porter trade? As you said, who knows what direction they'd go in, but the bulls would certainly get better, and gain an additional asset along the way. Jrich, Dunn, White, Tobias, Lauri, and Carter sounds like a good batch of talent. We'd be able to roll out the following:
Ben
Lavine - Shake
Matisse - Furkan
Porter
Embiid - Al

Definitely an intriguing lineup
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Re: Moreyball: Finding the Undervalued Stock? 

Post#46 » by eyeatoma » Sat Nov 7, 2020 2:53 am

davesilver wrote:
ProcessDoctor wrote:I wouldn't be shocked if LaVine ends up being Morey's primary target (outside of aiming high for Harden). A young playmaking guard that's somewhat underappreciated on a losing team. Hard to tell which direction Chicago is going in though.

Booker is probably staying in Phoenix. Beal would cost a fortune. Paul is great but only presents a very short-term solution. Hield is good, but is not a playmaker. Holiday maybe? Could be a bidding war we can't keep up with. Oladipo is another option, but would Morey blow our few remaining assets on such an uncertainty?


I wonder if Chicago would be interested in a Jrich + future 1st + Tobias <-> Lavine + Porter trade? As you said, who knows what direction they'd go in, but the bulls would certainly get better, and gain an additional asset along the way. Jrich, Dunn, White, Tobias, Lauri, and Carter sounds like a good batch of talent. We'd be able to roll out the following:
Ben
Lavine - Shake
Matisse - Furkan
Porter
Embiid - Al

Definitely an intriguing lineup


I despise Porter. Dude has been an advanced stats darling, but has been so injury prone for his career. No thank you...
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Re: Moreyball: Finding the Undervalued Stock? 

Post#47 » by the_process » Sat Nov 7, 2020 3:24 am

eyeatoma wrote:
davesilver wrote:
ProcessDoctor wrote:I wouldn't be shocked if LaVine ends up being Morey's primary target (outside of aiming high for Harden). A young playmaking guard that's somewhat underappreciated on a losing team. Hard to tell which direction Chicago is going in though.

Booker is probably staying in Phoenix. Beal would cost a fortune. Paul is great but only presents a very short-term solution. Hield is good, but is not a playmaker. Holiday maybe? Could be a bidding war we can't keep up with. Oladipo is another option, but would Morey blow our few remaining assets on such an uncertainty?


I wonder if Chicago would be interested in a Jrich + future 1st + Tobias <-> Lavine + Porter trade? As you said, who knows what direction they'd go in, but the bulls would certainly get better, and gain an additional asset along the way. Jrich, Dunn, White, Tobias, Lauri, and Carter sounds like a good batch of talent. We'd be able to roll out the following:
Ben
Lavine - Shake
Matisse - Furkan
Porter
Embiid - Al

Definitely an intriguing lineup


I despise Porter. Dude has been an advanced stats darling, but has been so injury prone for his career. No thank you...


Moving Harris for an expiring Porter would be a coup. It probably takes two 1sts to finish that trade above, though. Still would be worth it IMO.
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Re: Moreyball: Finding the Undervalued Stock? 

Post#48 » by Sixerscan » Sat Nov 7, 2020 3:33 am

Everytime I watch Lavine it seems like he doesn't give a crap about winning unless it makes him look good.
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Re: Moreyball: Finding the Undervalued Stock? 

Post#49 » by Sportfan73 » Sat Nov 7, 2020 3:41 am

Sixerscan wrote:Everytime I watch Lavine it seems like he doesn't give a crap about winning unless it makes him look good.

Sounds like an undervalued asset who has never had good coaching or played on a good team with good leadership
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Re: Moreyball: Finding the Undervalued Stock? 

Post#50 » by Arsenal » Sat Nov 7, 2020 4:17 am

eyeatoma wrote:
davesilver wrote:
ProcessDoctor wrote:I wouldn't be shocked if LaVine ends up being Morey's primary target (outside of aiming high for Harden). A young playmaking guard that's somewhat underappreciated on a losing team. Hard to tell which direction Chicago is going in though.

Booker is probably staying in Phoenix. Beal would cost a fortune. Paul is great but only presents a very short-term solution. Hield is good, but is not a playmaker. Holiday maybe? Could be a bidding war we can't keep up with. Oladipo is another option, but would Morey blow our few remaining assets on such an uncertainty?


I wonder if Chicago would be interested in a Jrich + future 1st + Tobias <-> Lavine + Porter trade? As you said, who knows what direction they'd go in, but the bulls would certainly get better, and gain an additional asset along the way. Jrich, Dunn, White, Tobias, Lauri, and Carter sounds like a good batch of talent. We'd be able to roll out the following:
Ben
Lavine - Shake
Matisse - Furkan
Porter
Embiid - Al

Definitely an intriguing lineup


I despise Porter. Dude has been an advanced stats darling, but has been so injury prone for his career. No thank you...


I don't care if he doesn't even play a game. If we can get Porter straight up for Tobias that's a big win for us.
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Re: Moreyball: Finding the Undervalued Stock? 

Post#51 » by TTP » Sat Nov 7, 2020 8:10 am

ProcessDoctor wrote:I wouldn't be shocked if LaVine ends up being Morey's primary target (outside of aiming high for Harden). A young playmaking guard that's somewhat underappreciated on a losing team. Hard to tell which direction Chicago is going in though.

Booker is probably staying in Phoenix. Beal would cost a fortune. Paul is great but only presents a very short-term solution. Hield is good, but is not a playmaker. Holiday maybe? Could be a bidding war we can't keep up with. Oladipo is another option, but would Morey blow our few remaining assets on such an uncertainty?


I doubt Morey goes for LaVine for a number of reasons. For one, LaVine doesn't grade well in a lot of advanced stats, and Morey probably values that stuff as much as anyone. For another, Morey said in a recent interview that it's generally easier to get a good defensive player to be a positive on offense rather than the other way around, because it can be hard to get the offensive guys to buy in on defense.

I'm not sure CP3 is necessarily short term - I could see him being a good player until he's 40. I also think there's a decent chance that 37 year old CP3 is a better and more impactful player than 26 year old Zach LaVine.

Probably yes to the last part. Oladipo is a pretty attractive distressed asset right now. If there wasn't any risk in acquiring him, he wouldn't be acquirable. It's also worth mentioning that Morey probably understands embracing uncertainty more than most. Playing it safe is a good way to never make it to the top.
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Re: Moreyball: Finding the Undervalued Stock? 

Post#52 » by skulky » Sat Nov 7, 2020 4:08 pm

Sportfan73 wrote:
Sixerscan wrote:Everytime I watch Lavine it seems like he doesn't give a crap about winning unless it makes him look good.

Sounds like an undervalued asset who has never had good coaching or played on a good team with good leadership

Or maybe he’s a huge part of why his teams suck. He’s a ball watcher on d and gets killed by back cuts. He’s not the best with advanced stats and can score with volume not the most efficiently. He’s a ppg player and has name recognition and dunks. He’s like the opposite of a Morey player.

Morey traded Aaron brooks for dragic, and also traded for young Lowry. I think targets would be similar someone like Derrick White in the spurs.
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Re: Moreyball: Finding the Undervalued Stock? 

Post#53 » by Mik317 » Sat Nov 7, 2020 8:39 pm

LaVine's appeal is him not being the main option on offense will help his effiency and having actual defenders around him will hide him on that end.

His skillset is ideal for Ben and Joel tho. Atheltic as hell to run with Ben. A threat as a shooter to help Joel. And can create off the dribble in the halfcourt when needed. That is the "perfect" third star skill set wise. It is the mythical Markelle Fultz archetype basically. At this stage in the process, we aren't going to find a perfect player so expect either less than optimal defense or streaky offense from whoever we get in that role(Dipo is another solid fit with his issues being his health and shooting consistancy).

edit; Derrick White is also intriguing for those same attributes...just less proven of course.
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Re: Moreyball: Finding the Undervalued Stock? 

Post#54 » by sixers hoops » Sat Nov 7, 2020 8:46 pm

TTP wrote:
ProcessDoctor wrote:I wouldn't be shocked if LaVine ends up being Morey's primary target (outside of aiming high for Harden). A young playmaking guard that's somewhat underappreciated on a losing team. Hard to tell which direction Chicago is going in though.

Booker is probably staying in Phoenix. Beal would cost a fortune. Paul is great but only presents a very short-term solution. Hield is good, but is not a playmaker. Holiday maybe? Could be a bidding war we can't keep up with. Oladipo is another option, but would Morey blow our few remaining assets on such an uncertainty?


I doubt Morey goes for LaVine for a number of reasons. For one, LaVine doesn't grade well in a lot of advanced stats, and Morey probably values that stuff as much as anyone. For another, Morey said in a recent interview that it's generally easier to get a good defensive player to be a positive on offense rather than the other way around, because it can be hard to get the offensive guys to buy in on defense.

I'm not sure CP3 is necessarily short term - I could see him being a good player until he's 40. I also think there's a decent chance that 37 year old CP3 is a better and more impactful player than 26 year old Zach LaVine.

Probably yes to the last part. Oladipo is a pretty attractive distressed asset right now. If there wasn't any risk in acquiring him, he wouldn't be acquirable. It's also worth mentioning that Morey probably understands embracing uncertainty more than most. Playing it safe is a good way to never make it to the top.


Oladipo is a really tough call. If he were a much better shooter, I would take the risk that he comes back healthy. However, even if he is healthy, him, Ben, and joel will be operating in an area the size of a phone booth area the rim. Ben and Joel need more spacing to work together, and my concern is we will be talking about how Ben, Vic, and Joel need more spacing to be effective. Victor was a beast two year ago, but the fit scares me as much as his health.
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Re: Moreyball: Finding the Undervalued Stock? 

Post#55 » by Sixerscan » Sat Nov 7, 2020 10:39 pm

The trouble with Oladipo is the reason he is undervalued is for health reasons and the Pacers are operating with more information on that than you are. See the person whose name I won’t say that we traded Iguodala for.
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Re: Moreyball: Finding the Undervalued Stock? 

Post#56 » by youngcrev » Sat Nov 7, 2020 10:44 pm

Sixerscan wrote:The trouble with Oladipo is the reason he is undervalued is for health reasons and the Pacers are operating with more information on that than you are. See the person whose name I won’t say that we traded Iguodala for.


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Re: Moreyball: Finding the Undervalued Stock? 

Post#57 » by TTP » Sat Nov 7, 2020 11:33 pm

Sixerscan wrote:The trouble with Oladipo is the reason he is undervalued is for health reasons and the Pacers are operating with more information on that than you are. See the person whose name I won’t say that we traded Iguodala for.


It's more than just health reasons though. He's expiring - teams might not want to risk trading much for a guy that might walk in a year.

Also, the Pacers certainly have more information about his injury but their desire to move him could extend beyond his injury situation. Oladipo reportedly wants out. The Pacers are also a smaller market team and might not have the risk tolerance to give a lot of money to an uncertainty, especially when they have another guard in Brogdon whom they just gave a big contract to and exceeded expectations this season. It's probably just more appealing to them to move the guy that wants out, avoid all the uncertainty, and go with Brogdon and Holiday.
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Re: Moreyball: Finding the Undervalued Stock? 

Post#58 » by Phillyboy » Sat Nov 7, 2020 11:45 pm

TTP wrote:
Sixerscan wrote:The trouble with Oladipo is the reason he is undervalued is for health reasons and the Pacers are operating with more information on that than you are. See the person whose name I won’t say that we traded Iguodala for.


It's more than just health reasons though. He's expiring - teams might not want to risk trading much for a guy that might walk in a year.

Also, the Pacers certainly have more information about his injury but their desire to move him could extend beyond his injury situation. Oladipo reportedly wants out. The Pacers are also a smaller market team and might not have the risk tolerance to give a lot of money to an uncertainty, especially when they have another guard in Brogdon whom they just gave a big contract to and exceeded expectations this season. It's probably just more appealing to them to move the guy that wants out, avoid all the uncertainty, and go with Brogdon and Holiday.


I agree with Sixerscan here. His general health and BB readiness concerns me. He played rather poorly in the bubble and it smells like he might not ever be the player he was two years ago. Sixerscan also made a great point in that Indiana is operating with a lot more info than we are and if they're willing to trade him now that sets off alarms for me. What else does it smell like? Like too many deals this team has made over the years buying damaged goods on hope. Please don't do it again
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Re: Moreyball: Finding the Undervalued Stock? 

Post#59 » by TTP » Sat Nov 7, 2020 11:48 pm

sixers hoops wrote:
TTP wrote:
ProcessDoctor wrote:I wouldn't be shocked if LaVine ends up being Morey's primary target (outside of aiming high for Harden). A young playmaking guard that's somewhat underappreciated on a losing team. Hard to tell which direction Chicago is going in though.

Booker is probably staying in Phoenix. Beal would cost a fortune. Paul is great but only presents a very short-term solution. Hield is good, but is not a playmaker. Holiday maybe? Could be a bidding war we can't keep up with. Oladipo is another option, but would Morey blow our few remaining assets on such an uncertainty?


I doubt Morey goes for LaVine for a number of reasons. For one, LaVine doesn't grade well in a lot of advanced stats, and Morey probably values that stuff as much as anyone. For another, Morey said in a recent interview that it's generally easier to get a good defensive player to be a positive on offense rather than the other way around, because it can be hard to get the offensive guys to buy in on defense.

I'm not sure CP3 is necessarily short term - I could see him being a good player until he's 40. I also think there's a decent chance that 37 year old CP3 is a better and more impactful player than 26 year old Zach LaVine.

Probably yes to the last part. Oladipo is a pretty attractive distressed asset right now. If there wasn't any risk in acquiring him, he wouldn't be acquirable. It's also worth mentioning that Morey probably understands embracing uncertainty more than most. Playing it safe is a good way to never make it to the top.


Oladipo is a really tough call. If he were a much better shooter, I would take the risk that he comes back healthy. However, even if he is healthy, him, Ben, and joel will be operating in an area the size of a phone booth area the rim. Ben and Joel need more spacing to work together, and my concern is we will be talking about how Ben, Vic, and Joel need more spacing to be effective. Victor was a beast two year ago, but the fit scares me as much as his health.


Oladipo's shooting is fine - he's right around league average from 3, but consider that he's been assisted on only ~60% of his 3PA with Indiana. He shot 39.4% on catch and shoot 3s in 17-18, and 40.6% before he got hurt in 18-19, though some sample size concerns there. He's also good from mid-range and the line though.
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Re: Moreyball: Finding the Undervalued Stock? 

Post#60 » by skulky » Sun Nov 8, 2020 4:40 pm

Sixerscan wrote:The trouble with Oladipo is the reason he is undervalued is for health reasons and the Pacers are operating with more information on that than you are. See the person whose name I won’t say that we traded Iguodala for.

I’m not advocating for a oladipo trade, but if there’s any intel on the pacers side our recent front office hire, Peter dinwiddie, would know it.

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