2025 NBA Draft (2)

[Arsenal]

Really not too interested in Harper, who is a poor shooter from all 3 levels, and also is not athletic.

I too am concerned about Harper's shooting. He's a terrible fit in SA with two other non-shooters in the backcourt in Fox and Castle, so I wouldn't be surprised if they pass on him one way or another. Otherwise they really need to get rid of Fox or Castle.

#3 for Castle...?

Not a big believer in Castle's upside, but I feel the same way about everyone available to us. Great fit with Maxey and/or McCain

No way. I'm not a believer in Castle. His shooting is too weak to ever be a difference maker. Him getting ROY was only because the rest of the class was a joke after the REAL ROY Jared McCain got injured.

[M2J]

Isn't one of those levels near the basket? He good at that

I question his ability to get there in the NBA. I question his abilities and to be clear his willingness to play off ball and both Spurs and 76ers value that in guards for their systems. Not just my speculation, but Eric Snow pod says he's heard that too from around the league.

The Spurs took Castle 4th overall and traded a bunch for Fox. I buy fit issues with those two, but those 2 moves run contrary to the Spurs placing a major emphasis on off ball play from their guards. There's also been consistent reporting since they landed at #2 that he's the pick.

By most accounts, Harper is a tier above the guys available at #3.

So they drafted the rookie of the year because he was one of the best available in a weak draft with size and defense and he worked out in their system off ball going to the basket. Fox nearly forced his way to Spurs specifically and they gave up next to nothing to get him. They still also played Paul every game a lot. Fox also just came from a system where Sabonis was their main half court offensive hub after playing in a Pop disciples system.

[Stanford]

I quite enjoyed seeing the Ace haters post their hearts out and see the tally grow for the pick the be Ace.

Just remember that you care about this even more than they do.

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

Hopefully the Spurs just take fking Bailey and we can snag Harper.

[Jojothewhale]

If the Sixers had landed at 2, you wouldn’t be reading most of this picking Harper apart. It’s embarrassing homer talk.

[Black Mage]

I think his athletic testing and measurables prove he can do it, athletically. So it boils down to effort. Myself and people who do this for a living think he’ll give better effort in the NBA when he’s not the #1, 2, and 3 option offensively on a team full of bums.

Trying to find this "barlow" you mention, is it Rafael Barlowe?

Yes.

Watch on YouTube

The same dude who says Justin Edwards was better than Ace and the other Barlow makes a face like, dude you crazy?

Also, none of them said they think Tre will become better on defense. KOC also acknowledged in his latest mock that Tre "must dramatically improve on defense." KOC does NOT say he thinks he will.

I can't find a single evaluator that says they feel with any kind of certainty that Tre becomes even a below average defender.

[Black Mage]

Really not too interested in Harper, who is a poor shooter from all 3 levels, and also is not athletic.

You didn't lose me at hello; but you definitely lost me at all 3 levels. Two I could buy being a concern; but at the rim he's elite.

[Black Mage]

Really not too interested in Harper, who is a poor shooter from all 3 levels, and also is not athletic.

Isn't one of those levels near the basket? He good at that

I question his ability to get there in the NBA. I question his abilities and to be clear his willingness to play off ball and both Spurs and 76ers value that in guards for their systems. Not just my speculation, but Eric Snow pod says he's heard that too from around the league.

Morey also valued James Harden who was the least off-ball guard in recent history.

[Black Mage]

If the Sixers had landed at 2, you wouldn’t be reading most of this picking Harper apart. It’s embarrassing homer talk.

Nah we'd still do it; it's what we do as Sixers fans!

[Negrodamus]

I quite enjoyed seeing the Ace haters post their hearts out and see the tally grow for the pick the be Ace.

Just remember that you care about this even more than they do.

There was a poll?

[Arsenal]

A lot of Ace’s issues are due to his body being immature compared to guys like Flagg or Kon.

After a few years and 15 pounds of added muscle to get up to 220lbs, a lot of the issues will disappear.

It’s important to project physical improvement along with skill development.

[76ciology]

My Top 15 (May 30)

Spoiler:

High % to be stars
1. Cooper Flagg
2. Dylan Harper

Shotcreators
3. Jakucionis
4. Tre Johnson

Analytic Darlings
5. Kon Knueppel
6. CMB
7. VJ Edgecombe

Upside play
8. Ace Bailey
9. Jeremiah Fears
10. Khaman Maluach
11. Egor Denim

2 way role players with upside
12. Carter Bryant
13. Noa Essengue

2 way role players
14. Rasheer Flemming
15. Thomas Sorber

Notes:
- I’m sticking with Kasparas at third overall. After a long and thoughtful discussion on the 76ers board, I came away convinced he’s the right pick. Pre-injury, he had a 9.9 BPM and was being projected in the top 3–5. The major difference post-injury was his 3PT shooting dropping from .40 to .25, but I’m buying his shot long-term. His shooting profile supports it.. an .85 FT%, .36 from stepback threes, and overall shooting mechanics that suggest the slump isn’t a red flag.

He also fits today’s playoff environment perfectly.. a big guard who can handle, shoot, defend, and make plays. He ended the season with a .58 TS%, .50 3PTr, and .50 FTr. Add to that his 98th percentile PnR volume, 30% half-court rim frequency at over 60% FG%, and you’ve got the profile of an efficient, scalable scorer with IQ, motor, and positional size.

- I have Knueppel, CMB, and Edgecombe ranked 5th, 6th, and 7th. All three are analytical standouts, but their lack of high-end shot creation limits their overall upside compared to the two players above them. I ordered them based on relative shot creation ability, Knueppel showing the most promise in that area, followed by CMB, then Edgecombe.

- I have Ace Bailey at 8th. His metrics are poor across the board. He’s an inefficient, high-usage scorer with just a 53 TS% and 8 AST%. I also think his defense is overstated.. his 109 DRTG and .8 DBPM don’t support the hype. But I would ranked him highest for pure upside play.

- Second for upside play would be Jeremiah Fears. His archetype is appealing, shifty guard with on-ball juice.. but I think he’s tracking more like Tre Mann or James Bouknight due to his inefficiency. Still, I have him 9th because archetype matters, and guards like him can “Colin Sexton” their way into long NBA careers if given opportunity.

- Third on upside play would be Maluach from 4th to 10th. Watching the tape, it’s clear he’s still raw. Right now, he’s dominating off sheer length and athleticism, but when faced with opponents who understand positioning and can match him physically, his lack of polish is exposed.

- Last on my upside play would be Egor Demin I usually fade non-shooting guards, but I’m buying his upside.

- I have Carter Bryant and Noa ranked as 3&D prospects I weighted shooting the highest between them.. Bryant is clearly the better shooter than Noa.

- Flemming and Sorber round out my top 15. I see both as high-floor, low-ceiling guys, two-way contributors who likely top out as solid role players but still hold value on winning teams.

[Negrodamus]

My Top 15 (May 30)

Spoiler:

High % to be stars
1. Cooper Flagg
2. Dylan Harper

Shotcreators
3. Jakucionis
4. Tre Johnson

Analytic Darlings
5. Kon Knueppel
6. VJ Edgecombe
7. CMB

Upside play
8. Ace Bailey
9. Jeremiah Fears
10. Khaman Maluach
11. Egor Denim

2 way role players with upside
12. Carter Bryant
13. Noa Essengue

2 way role players
14. Rasheer Flemming
15. Thomas Sorber

Notes:
- I’m sticking with Kasparas at third overall. After a long and thoughtful discussion on the 76ers board, I came away convinced he’s the right pick. Pre-injury, he had a 9.9 BPM and was being projected in the top 3–5. The major difference post-injury was his 3PT shooting dropping from .40 to .25, but I’m buying his shot long-term. His shooting profile supports it.. an .85 FT%, .36 from stepback threes, and overall shooting mechanics that suggest the slump isn’t a red flag.

He also fits today’s playoff environment perfectly.. a big guard who can handle, shoot, defend, and make plays. He ended the season with a .58 TS%, .50 3PTr, and .50 FTr. Add to that his 98th percentile PnR volume, 30% half-court rim frequency at over 60% FG%, and you’ve got the profile of an efficient, scalable scorer with IQ, motor, and positional size.

- I have Knueppel, CMB, and Edgecombe ranked 5th, 6th, and 7th. All three are analytical standouts, but their lack of high-end shot creation limits their overall upside compared to the two players above them. I ordered them based on relative shot creation ability, Knueppel showing the most promise in that area, followed by CMB, then Edgecombe.

- I have Ace Bailey at 8th. His metrics are poor across the board. He’s an inefficient, high-usage scorer with just a 53 TS% and 8 AST%. I also think his defense is overstated.. his 109 DRTG and .8 DBPM don’t support the hype. But I would ranked him highest for pure upside play.

- Second for upside play would be Jeremiah Fears. His archetype is appealing, shifty guard with on-ball juice.. but I think he’s tracking more like Tre Mann or James Bouknight due to his inefficiency. Still, I have him 9th because archetype matters, and guards like him can “Colin Sexton” their way into long NBA careers if given opportunity.

- Third on upside play would be Maluach from 4th to 10th. Watching the tape, it’s clear he’s still raw. Right now, he’s dominating off sheer length and athleticism, but when faced with opponents who understand positioning and can match him physically, his lack of polish is exposed.

- Last on my upside play would be Egor Demin I usually fade non-shooting guards, but I’m buying his upside.

- I have Carter Bryant and Noa ranked as 3&D prospects I weighted shooting the highest between them.. Bryant is clearly the better shooter than Noa.

- Flemming and Sorber round out my top 15. I see both as high-floor, low-ceiling guys, two-way contributors who likely top out as solid role players but still hold value on winning teams.

Feeling somewhat similar at the top. Would swap Fears and Tre. CMB low key is moving into the conversation of top 5 for me the more I watch. I don’t know if he counts as a “brolic” type, but his upside on offense is intriguing and the defense is already there.

[Arsenal]

If CMB could just shoot a little he’d be great. But his shooting at the combine was atrocious apparently.

[76ciology]

A lot of Ace’s issues are due to his body being immature compared to guys like Flagg or Kon.

After a few years and 15 pounds of added muscle to get up to 220lbs, a lot of the issues will disappear.

It’s important to project physical improvement along with skill development.

A lot of Ace’s concerns stem more from his feel for the game and overall skill development than from physical limitations. He’s already a solid rebounder and holds his own defensively, he doesn’t get pushed around.. which suggests that physical strength isn’t a major weakness. That said, continued physical development would still be a welcome improvement but I dont find it to be the core issue.

[Iverson Armband]

Trying to find this "barlow" you mention, is it Rafael Barlowe?

Yes.

Watch on YouTube

The same dude who says Justin Edwards was better than Ace and the other Barlow makes a face like, dude you crazy?

Also, none of them said they think Tre will become better on defense. KOC also acknowledged in his latest mock that Tre "must dramatically improve on defense." KOC does NOT say he thinks he will.

I can't find a single evaluator that says they feel with any kind of certainty that Tre becomes even a below average defender.

I think you need to watch the video again. He did say he thinks Tre’s defense improves not having to carry an entire offense in the NBA. Also, he didn’t say Justin Edwards was better, he said he’d probably beat him out in camp for minutes which isn’t crazy at all. Half the people here think Ace is a total project anyway.

[okboomer]

When picking these college players, alot also comes down to their character and mentality. Are they going to continue to work at their deficiencies. If they think Tre will, Id pick him, if not go with VJ. He seems to be the non stop working type. Unless they trade down of course.

[76ciology]

My Top 15 (May 30)

Spoiler:

High % to be stars
1. Cooper Flagg
2. Dylan Harper

Shotcreators
3. Jakucionis
4. Tre Johnson

Analytic Darlings
5. Kon Knueppel
6. VJ Edgecombe
7. CMB

Upside play
8. Ace Bailey
9. Jeremiah Fears
10. Khaman Maluach
11. Egor Denim

2 way role players with upside
12. Carter Bryant
13. Noa Essengue

2 way role players
14. Rasheer Flemming
15. Thomas Sorber

Notes:
- I’m sticking with Kasparas at third overall. After a long and thoughtful discussion on the 76ers board, I came away convinced he’s the right pick. Pre-injury, he had a 9.9 BPM and was being projected in the top 3–5. The major difference post-injury was his 3PT shooting dropping from .40 to .25, but I’m buying his shot long-term. His shooting profile supports it.. an .85 FT%, .36 from stepback threes, and overall shooting mechanics that suggest the slump isn’t a red flag.

He also fits today’s playoff environment perfectly.. a big guard who can handle, shoot, defend, and make plays. He ended the season with a .58 TS%, .50 3PTr, and .50 FTr. Add to that his 98th percentile PnR volume, 30% half-court rim frequency at over 60% FG%, and you’ve got the profile of an efficient, scalable scorer with IQ, motor, and positional size.

- I have Knueppel, CMB, and Edgecombe ranked 5th, 6th, and 7th. All three are analytical standouts, but their lack of high-end shot creation limits their overall upside compared to the two players above them. I ordered them based on relative shot creation ability, Knueppel showing the most promise in that area, followed by CMB, then Edgecombe.

- I have Ace Bailey at 8th. His metrics are poor across the board. He’s an inefficient, high-usage scorer with just a 53 TS% and 8 AST%. I also think his defense is overstated.. his 109 DRTG and .8 DBPM don’t support the hype. But I would ranked him highest for pure upside play.

- Second for upside play would be Jeremiah Fears. His archetype is appealing, shifty guard with on-ball juice.. but I think he’s tracking more like Tre Mann or James Bouknight due to his inefficiency. Still, I have him 9th because archetype matters, and guards like him can “Colin Sexton” their way into long NBA careers if given opportunity.

- Third on upside play would be Maluach from 4th to 10th. Watching the tape, it’s clear he’s still raw. Right now, he’s dominating off sheer length and athleticism, but when faced with opponents who understand positioning and can match him physically, his lack of polish is exposed.

- Last on my upside play would be Egor Demin I usually fade non-shooting guards, but I’m buying his upside.

- I have Carter Bryant and Noa ranked as 3&D prospects I weighted shooting the highest between them.. Bryant is clearly the better shooter than Noa.

- Flemming and Sorber round out my top 15. I see both as high-floor, low-ceiling guys, two-way contributors who likely top out as solid role players but still hold value on winning teams.

Feeling somewhat similar at the top. Would swap Fears and Tre. CMB low key is moving into the conversation of top 5 for me the more I watch. I don’t know if he counts as a “brolic” type, but his upside on offense is intriguing and the defense is already there.

That’s fair. But between the two, Fears feels more theoretical as a scorer compared to Tre, he’s less proven and has clear concerns like his size, which are harder to overlook.

CMB is a strong player to have. He’s shown impressive isolation efficiency, scoring over 1.00 points per possession, though I’m cautious about how much of that will carry over to the NBA level, so I don’t weigh it too heavily. I also factored in context of the NBA game and archetype, it’s really hard to be a 6’8” PF who can’t shoot.

Personally, I put a premium on shooting, scoring, and real upside, less on upsides that aren’t supported by data. That’s why my top five include guys like Flagg, Harper, KJ, Tre, and KK. KK is 5th because he’s the one with the least shot creation skills among the 5 but he has the most translatable shot creation among the analytic darlings group of KK, CMB (6th) and VJ (7th)

[Black Mage]

The more I watch Kon; the more I keep thinking back to Kyle Korver and my lord are they practically identical.
Nearly same height, but Kon's arms are 3 inches shorter than Kyle's.

2pt%, 3pt%, ft% all within a percentage point or so, some within less than a percentage point. Kyle did outrebound Kon (as you'd expect with longer arms) but the assists, blocks, steals all are almost identical. Even their turnovers and usage.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/kyle-korver-1.html

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/kon-knueppel-1.html

Kyles scouting report:

Strengths: Top shooter in the college game ... Intelligent player who shows great court awareness ... Plays under control and every move on the floor is thought out... Although a great shooter he is a very capable passer... Does a nice job of recognizing open teammates on the fast break ... His solid court vision makes him a consistent threat to pass to cutters under the basket... When working off screens he needs little time to get his shot off thanks to his quick release ... Mechanics on his jumper enable him to shoot over most defenders as his height and high arc make him difficult to block ... A consistent threat behind the 3-point line ... Has the ability to make any shot off the floor if his feet are set or if he is running of screens ... Decent rebounder for a player at his position ... Excellent free throw shooter... Does a great job of shooting the ball quickly off handoffs ... Moves very well without the ball in hands when he is running off screens ... Despite his scoring prowess, Korver is a very unselfish player... Tremendous work ethic and hunger to become a better player... Confident player who doesn't shy away from the ball when the game is on the line ...

Sounds so much like Kon.

[76ciology]

KOC has Cedric Coward at 5. Do we need to have a conversation about Cedric Coward? Player comparison is Kawhi Leonard??