Nerlens Noel Thread

MountainDrew · Post #521 » by **MountainDrew** » Sun Mar 1, 2015 10:25 pm

Well that is just a really bad decision xD wth Kaminsky for Noel? That's ridiculous

I'd move Noel for a top 4 pick, which isn't going to happen obviously. But I think Noel is more valuable than anyone after 4.

Dooberstein · Post #522 » by **Dooberstein** » Sun Mar 1, 2015 10:29 pm

Kaminsky is ballin out against my MSU squad right now. 22-5-3 with 12 minutes to go.

With that being said, I would never trade Noel to get Kaminsky. Kaminsky can stretch the floor, has good post moves and is a nice passer, but I think he will get bullied in the NBA.... by people like Noel.

Dooberstein · Post #523 » by **Dooberstein** » Sun Mar 1, 2015 10:30 pm

Noel wouldn't bully him physical, but Frank would have a very hard time scoring on him.

Post #524 » by **CoreyGallagher** » Sun Mar 1, 2015 10:42 pm

NBA Moses wrote:
cedric76 wrote:Would you trade Noel for a 2015 5 to 7 pick?

Nerlens is so offensively challenged I think I might, especially if Herzonja was still on the board. Imo a Cauley- Stein has a better nba body,and is just as athletic as Nerlens . Cauley- Stein also has a bit more coordination/smoothness/basketball sense about him.

Nerlens is a good complimentary piece for a good team , a Camby type but this team needs so much help that they cant afford complimentary pieces.

No way, if Cauley-Stein were a cornerstone player, which your description paints him as being or at least indirectly insists, he'd be in discussion for the top pick. He's not because he's complimentary. Noel's defense just seems to be overall better and he is quicker than him, also seems to have better hands on D which allows him to poke balls away for steals, that's adds another dimension to the type of defender Noel is. Noel was 19 and a freshmen, WCS is 21 and in his third year and he's still not really comparable to Noel as a prospect imo.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... oel-1.html

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... ein-1.html

Lapinski · Post #525 » by **Lapinski** » Mon Mar 2, 2015 2:42 am

Zeitgeister wrote:
Kobblehead wrote:Wiggins is still a negative player on both ends of the floor (-0.8 OBPM & -1.5 DBPM).

At least MCW was a plus defender as the award recipient.

Andrew Wiggins -0.88 RPM
Kevin Durant -3.2 RPM
Nerlens Noel -3.09 RPM
Anthony Davis 0.8 RPM
MCW -1.29

What is RPM? OBPM/DBPM?

freshie2 · Post #526 » by **freshie2** » Mon Mar 2, 2015 3:16 am

His jumper is much improved...the form will never be picturesque, but the touch and consistency is noticeably better.

Ericb5 · Post #527 » by **Ericb5** » Mon Mar 2, 2015 3:30 am

freshie2 wrote:His jumper is much improved...the form will never be picturesque, but the touch and consistency is noticeably better.

I don't understand how they weren't able to fix that form with a year of practice. Yes, he has improved his accuracy, and consistency, but he still extends his arms too far and then shoots it a hair too late, which basically nullifies the momentum of his jump and forces all the force to come from his wrist.

It seems like something that they could fix. Obviously fixing a jump shot takes time, but they spent a lot of time on it when it was the only thing that he could do.

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SixerFever215 · Post #528 » by **SixerFever215** » Mon Mar 2, 2015 3:48 am

The timing on his release is a little off, that can be fixed easy and that's more on Nerlens to fix that. His shot has came a long way he looks super confident out there.

Carmelo · Post #529 » by **Carmelo** » Mon Mar 2, 2015 3:48 am

NBA Moses wrote:
cedric76 wrote:Would you trade Noel for a 2015 5 to 7 pick

Absolutely. And it would take me 1 millisecond to call out Frank Kaminskys name.

Kaminsky is an incredible basketball player. He may not have the athleticism of your typical lottery pick but he is a terrific all around basketball player.

Wow.

Blower69 · Post #530 » by **Blower69** » Mon Mar 2, 2015 4:06 am

man ppl only want frank cuz hes white

Post #531 » by **CoreyGallagher** » Mon Mar 2, 2015 4:12 am

Lapinski wrote:
Zeitgeister wrote:
Kobblehead wrote:Wiggins is still a negative player on both ends of the floor (-0.8 OBPM & -1.5 DBPM).

At least MCW was a plus defender as the award recipient.

Andrew Wiggins -0.88 RPM
Kevin Durant -3.2 RPM
Nerlens Noel -3.09 RPM
Anthony Davis 0.8 RPM
MCW -1.29

What is RPM? OBPM/DBPM?

It's ESPN's new stat, Real Plus Minus. BPM is Box Plus Minus.

More numbers...

ORtg to DRtg
Noel- 92, 100
Wiggins- 101, 113

BPM
Noel- -0.3
Wiggins- -2.1

VORP
Noel- 0.7
Wiggins- -0.1

WS
Noel- 1.9
Wiggins- 1.4

RPM
Noel- -3.09
Wiggins- -0.88

Zeitgeister · Post #532 » by **Zeitgeister** » Mon Mar 2, 2015 4:24 am

RPM is often considered the best advanced statistic available at the moment.

MRxBLACK · Post #533 » by **MRxBLACK** » Mon Mar 2, 2015 4:27 am

Zeitgeister wrote:RPM is often considered the best advanced statistic available at the moment.

Why, because it's the only one Wiggins has a higher score than Noel? Another advanced stat is one Nylon Calculus came out with called DRE: http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/dre-sing ... ason-long/

Zeitgeister · Post #534 » by **Zeitgeister** » Mon Mar 2, 2015 4:36 am

MRxBLACK wrote:
Zeitgeister wrote:RPM is often considered the best advanced statistic available at the moment.

Why, because it's the only one Wiggins has a higher score than Noel? Another advanced stat is one Nylon Calculus came out with called DRE: http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/dre-sing ... ason-long/

Your link is broken. No, it's considered the best because +/- stats are seen as a newer, more comprehensive way of capturing impact on the basketball court compared to the box score statistics and RPM does a better job of accounting for different variables on the team. If your link was to some new RPM + Sportsvu stuff that they are getting into, that's great. I'm anxious to see how that works out, but that is very, very early in the process because this is the first year we have Sportsvu data. I'm sure there will be a number of tweaks to that metric over the next few years to improve upon it.

Anyway, my first post in this thread was in response to a guy that brought up Wiggins' RPM numbers as a reason why he shouldn't be rookie of the year. I see a number of Philly fans claiming that Noel is better and often using RPM to critique Wiggins while seemingly ignoring the fact that Wiggins is doing a lot better than Noel according to that statistic. I also posted the rookie RPM numbers of MCW and a couple superstar level players to illustrate that it's not that uncommon for rookies to have a minor impact, and often times even a negative impact on their teams. Saying all that, I think Noel is a fantastic defensive talent but at least for awhile he's been a real burden offensively.

76ciology · Post #535 » by **76ciology** » Mon Mar 2, 2015 5:11 am

Many can score in this league. What makes a scorer special if he can create this scoring opportunities or create for others, thus the LBJ, Curry, KD, CP3, Wade and Harden are superstars while guys like Kevin Martin, Rudy Gay, Hayward, Tobias Harris and Thad Young (2013-2014) are considered, for lack of a better word, non-stars.

Noel on the other hand is a special player because there are really few people who can do what he brings on the defensive end. His 1.5 spg/bpg is a rare feat, he is single handedly carrying this team composed with a number of undraftees into one of the top defensive teams in the league. I don't see Wiggins being able to carry a team on either side of the floor. How much better Wiggins is on offense without Rubio?

Wiggins will be ROY because of his raw scoring numbers. I'm not taking anything away from Wiggins, but for a guy scoring that good, it makes you wonder why he has low RPM and PER numbers. Maybe it's just because he's just above average to good on both ends? Safe to say Noel has a side on the court that he can be dominant with, unlike Wiggins. What happens if Noel continues to improve on offense? Should the improved offense/non liability (already showed signs this month) plus dominant defense make him a better prospect in the future?

I'm betting on Wiggins winning the ROY this year. But I prefer Noel, not just because of this general notion of choosing talented bigs over talented small, but because it's rare to see a guy being able to be dominant on a side on the floor in the NBA, while I can see Noel improving his offense (i.e. Improved shooting) as soon as next season.

BTW, Noel is now 220lbs and has shown more physical and improved rebounding in the past few games. His in-season improvement is just amazing.

Wilfried · Post #536 » by **Wilfried** » Mon Mar 2, 2015 5:21 am

I really don't understand people wanting to trade Noel for a pick (Kaminsky?) or something already.

His improvement during his rookie season is impressive, he can become a real special player.

76ciology · Post #537 » by **76ciology** » Mon Mar 2, 2015 5:23 am

Regarding Nerlens traded for top 5-7 pick.

I think you guys need to stop what you're smoking.

For a top 3 pick and have a chance to get Jahlil, KAT or Russell, maybe i'd consider trading him for that but all those guys at 5-7 picks are only average to good players and I wouldn't trade Nerlens for them. Remember that most guys in the draft are similar to speculative stocks where you are counting on future value that has high probability that won't be realized.

I like Nerlens. His development is very promising. And has shown to have LEGIT DPOY candidate and all time defensive player caliber even just being less than a year older than Wiggins. This guy can guard anyone, from quick guards like Kyrie and John Wall on a halfcourt setting to protecting the rim at an efficient rate. That is something guys like mutombo and pippen can't do. We're talking about all time best caliber.

Zeitgeister · Post #538 » by **Zeitgeister** » Mon Mar 2, 2015 5:27 am

Wiggins was productive without Rubio in January. He's not dependent on Rubio, that's not to say he doesn't take advantage of playing with a great facilitator.

Durant was not a good facilitator early in his career. It took awhile for him to improve. I don't think Wiggins will ever be a great facilitator but he can have more defensive impact than a number of the guys you mentioned with the potential to be close to an elite scorer.

Post #539 » by **CoreyGallagher** » Mon Mar 2, 2015 5:27 am

Zeitgeister wrote:Your link is broken. No, it's considered the best because +/- stats are seen as a newer, more comprehensive way of capturing impact on the basketball court compared to the box score statistics and RPM does a better job of accounting for different variables on the team. If your link was to some new RPM + Sportsvu stuff that they are getting into, that's great. I'm anxious to see how that works out, but that is very, very early in the process because this is the first year we have Sportsvu data. I'm sure there will be a number of tweaks to that metric over the next few years to improve upon it.

RPM is newer (in context to other stats, not to DRE), however due to lack of transparency, in their black box variables particularly, it's not the most trusted, perse'. DRE is similar in that it uses RAPM as a base, however they're transparent in their data and we can actually peruse each individual game and it's impact on the broader season long accumulations.

You can argue how reliable DRE is at the formula level, however Nylon Calculus' transparency is why I enjoy their statistics.

76ciology · Post #540 » by **76ciology** » Mon Mar 2, 2015 6:12 am

Zeitgeister wrote:Wiggins was productive without Rubio in January. He's not dependent on Rubio, that's not to say he doesn't take advantage of playing with a great facilitator.

Durant was not a good facilitator early in his career. It took awhile for him to improve. I don't think Wiggins will ever be a great facilitator but he can have more defensive impact than a number of the guys you mentioned with the potential to be close to an elite scorer.

Hey Zeit, I've been discussing wiggins with you for quite some time, and I hope you don't get me wrong or offended. Maybe it's just my personal preference/opinion of these issues with Wiggins.

FWIW, our team would have selected him if Embiid didn't get injured. And you guys got a hell of a package for Kevin Love with Wiggins, considering Love is said to be walking away onced his contract expires.

Wiggins is still young have a lot of opportunities to improve. Maybe I'm just on the betting side that Wiggins won't be special and is close to Rudy Gay/Derozan than T-Mac/KD. What's working for him is his athleticism that allows him to score over his defenders and get open looks. Plus he's got a good post game going for him. I'm just not sure how that would work on a play-off setting when you got guys like Ariza/Batum/Iguodala/Kawhi or someone with that length and athleticism to match-up with him.

In general, I just believe that the most competitive position in NBA right now is the SF position. There's almost one lockdown defender swingman for every NBA play-off team. Reminds me of that Shaq era, when there is one post defender on every team. It would take one long road of development for Wiggins to reach stardom, just in my own humble assumption.