Moreyball: Finding the Undervalued Stock?

[sixers hoops]

The trouble with Oladipo is the reason he is undervalued is for health reasons and the Pacers are operating with more information on that than you are. See the person whose name I won’t say that we traded Iguodala for.

I’m not advocating for a oladipo trade, but if there’s any intel on the pacers side our recent front office hire, Peter dinwiddie, would know it.

True. I’m sure he knows the Pacers general thoughts on him coming out of last season.

[76ciology]

Patty Mills for that Jj Role
59TS%
2.3 3pt made on 38 3pt%
3.32 ORPM in 2019-2020
4 years younger than JJ.

[76ciology]

I think we’re ok with the wings and big positions.

Starting G to play with Ben
Patty Mills or Teague

Mills can play that JJ Role
Teague can run PnR and can shoot from 3

Off the bench G, the high variance scoring G
Trey Burke or
Austin Rivers (not that high on him but he’ll be cheap)

I like Burke more and I think he’d be perfect for Doc. Brett just doesnt know how to use him.

Morey signed Rivers so he may see something in him. But im not sure Doc would want that Doc-Austin experience again.

[jbent87]

I think it's important to not fall in love with needing shooting above and beyond everything else. A competent guard to spell the ball handling for Simmons which allows him to roll to the hoop to finish around/above the rim would be a nice piece to add too.

Gotta remember Morey is a Hinkie-ish guy. This may not be a linear plan here (add shooting = championship). He also is pretty obsessed with ensuring he has two stars and then filling in the blanks around them. He may not think the two stars in place are the best two to win a Chip. Let the man cook.

[Tony Franciosa]

Oladipo scares me - he's exactly the kind of damaged goods guy we'd go after and get stuck with and get nothing out of. let's change our luck a bit and ignore him.

[TTP]

Oladipo scares me - he's exactly the kind of damaged goods guy we'd go after and get stuck with and get nothing out of. let's change our luck a bit and ignore him.

So what's your play it safe with 0% championship equity alternative? I don't understand how people don't realize this, but in our current situation, we're not winning a championship without taking a significant risk. I also think we're pretty much a lock to make the playoffs with Embiid and Simmons so the downside of being wrong on a move likely doesn't hamper the franchise significantly more than we already have been.

[SixthStreet]

The Pacer I'd want to get is Aaron Holiday. He's the archetype of the kind of guards Morey seemed to acquire a lot throughout his Rockets tenure and his skillset is a clean fit on this roster. I don't know what the general feel the Pacers have on him but he doesn't seem like they think he's a core piece. The Pacers guy we just hired should have some thoughts on him. It'd take 21 to get him and I'd do it. I'd flip Matisse for him too.

[76ciology]

Oladipo scares me - he's exactly the kind of damaged goods guy we'd go after and get stuck with and get nothing out of. let's change our luck a bit and ignore him.

So what's your play it safe with 0% championship equity alternative? I don't understand how people don't realize this, but in our current situation, we're not winning a championship without taking a significant risk. I also think we're pretty much a lock to make the playoffs with Embiid and Simmons so the downside of being wrong on a move likely doesn't hamper the franchise significantly more than we already have been.

And imagine what happens if Dipo ends up with the Bucks and then played at an allstar level.

[youngcrev]

Not in a star sense, but the Sixers probably have a bunch of that undervalued stock on the roster right now due to the fit issues. I think Horford and Richardson are generally both quality starters in the league that are likely to be on the move at a discount.

[Sixerscan]

Oladipo scares me - he's exactly the kind of damaged goods guy we'd go after and get stuck with and get nothing out of. let's change our luck a bit and ignore him.

So what's your play it safe with 0% championship equity alternative? I don't understand how people don't realize this, but in our current situation, we're not winning a championship without taking a significant risk. I also think we're pretty much a lock to make the playoffs with Embiid and Simmons so the downside of being wrong on a move likely doesn't hamper the franchise significantly more than we already have been.

Give Morey time to build up an asset base? There’s a reason why he was brought in. They have a new coach, new president, their best players are still pretty young and under contract long term. If Oladipo is available for cheap sure I could see them going for it but I don’t see this as 2021 or bust. There’s like 5 guys around Oladipo’s level that come available every year, maybe the next person will have a better risk profile, or maybe Morey will be able to put together assets to the point where you can trade for a better player.

[Mik317]

yeah the rush to win it all right away is what got us in the spot we are now. The idea is to improve but not at all costs. Morey and Doc gives the team more time on the clock IMO...as neither should fear for their jobs. Embiid and to a lesser extent Ben's health is something to keep an eye on but neither guy is 30 and are locked in their contracts..so this gotta go right now or else mentality is not exactly needed IMO. Yeah Embiid's window is shorter but even if that is the case....wouldn't future proofing be even more valuable then? I mean this past season's team annoyed the **** out of me and was a pain to watch....was still on target for 50 wins lol. Adjusting scheme and adding a few pieces on the margins could lead to a slight improvement and that is pretty good, no?

[phillynative]

I understand not moving too fast or jumping the gun. but they atleast have to bring better fitting pieces in here to see where Embiid and Ben are really at . Even of its a few minor moves or minimim contract guys.

[freshie2]

The 'rush' worked if they kept Butler. This may be a very opportune time to make deals as we approach the draft and a other COVID season. Players like Oladipo, Beal, Porter, Hield, Sexton, or Smith jr are all worth a call when you are not giving up Ben or Jojo. If the plan is to move Ben off the point, then you have to look at other PG/lead guard options. I don't envision a bombshell like Harden, but do anticipate at least 2 moves in the next week or so.

[cool93]

yeah the rush to win it all right away is what got us in the spot we are now.

Not true. We were making all the right moves (not without mistakes, but there was logic) prior to summer 2019. We just **** it all up by not offering 5 year max to Jimmy and offering pretty much the same to **** Tobias Harris.

That same team + Thybulle + MLE center would have been a true contender. Rush wasn't a problem - incompetence was.

[Mik317]

yeah the rush to win it all right away is what got us in the spot we are now.

Not true. We were making all the right moves (not without mistakes, but there was logic) prior to summer 2019. We just **** it all up by not offering 5 year max to Jimmy and offering pretty much the same to **** Tobias Harris.

That same team + Thybulle + MLE center would have been a true contender. Rush wasn't a problem - incompetence was.

true but also the Tobias move was not only an attempt at going for it all that year, it was a buffer against Jimmy leaving (if they hadn't already made up their minds before then lol). The Horford signing was also done for two reasons, to make sure we didn't fall off a cliff when Biid sat and to compete with the Bucks. They were dumb ass moves but still moves whose flimsy rationale was to contend asap. Lets say Jimmy had truely held our glorious owners' wives hostage for his way to miami..okay, do the Josh trade, get a cheap young big to supplant Biid and run back a similar team. They didn't want to do that because it would look as if they were taking their foot off the gas and not really trying to win (and to an extent....well yeah. Totally a lose-lose situation in that case); so they went hard in on Horford asap to keep up....it just backfired lol.

its weird tho as I typed it out....i am basically asking them to not try as hard lol. Which probably wouldn't go over well either..sooooo

[Sixerscan]

Rushing to get star players before Ben’s extension kicked in made sense, even if the execution didn’t.

There’s no such need for rush now. Ideally they would get a good guard but there’s little reason to force it now if there’s not a good deal available.

Morey has managed to get Harden and then Paul by accumulating assets over several years and then pouncing when he saw an opportunity. If you remember, before he acquired Harden, he tried for several years to trade for Dwight. When that didn’t work out, he didn’t just cash in his chips for the next best guy available. He waited a bit, kept accumulating assets, and then pounced when Harden came available. And then eventually got Dwight, funny enough.

If only there was a snappy 3 word phrase to describe what people should think to themselves while being patient. Show ya luv? No that’s not it...

[76ciology]

I’d only rush if it means ending up with Harden. Other than that, i’d prefer Morey to accumulate his asset base.

[phillynative]

If only there was a snappy 3 word phrase to describe what people should think to themselves while being patient. Show ya luv? No that’s not it...

[/quote]

[TTP]

Oladipo scares me - he's exactly the kind of damaged goods guy we'd go after and get stuck with and get nothing out of. let's change our luck a bit and ignore him.

So what's your play it safe with 0% championship equity alternative? I don't understand how people don't realize this, but in our current situation, we're not winning a championship without taking a significant risk. I also think we're pretty much a lock to make the playoffs with Embiid and Simmons so the downside of being wrong on a move likely doesn't hamper the franchise significantly more than we already have been.

Give Morey time to build up an asset base? There’s a reason why he was brought in. They have a new coach, new president, their best players are still pretty young and under contract long term. If Oladipo is available for cheap sure I could see them going for it but I don’t see this as 2021 or bust. There’s like 5 guys around Oladipo’s level that come available every year, maybe the next person will have a better risk profile, or maybe Morey will be able to put together assets to the point where you can trade for a better player.

I mean if you don't make a move, then you're just sacrificing present years rather than future years. If you make a move, you have a chance to compete in both. Horford is almost certainly going to have to get moved no matter what you do. I'd be shocked if that move doesn't happen.

[TTP]

Rushing to get star players before Ben’s extension kicked in made sense, even if the execution didn’t.

There’s no such need for rush now. Ideally they would get a good guard but there’s little reason to force it now if there’s not a good deal available.

Morey has managed to get Harden and then Paul by accumulating assets over several years and then pouncing when he saw an opportunity. If you remember, before he acquired Harden, he tried for several years to trade for Dwight. When that didn’t work out, he didn’t just cash in his chips for the next best guy available. He waited a bit, kept accumulating assets, and then pounced when Harden came available. And then eventually got Dwight, funny enough.

If only there was a snappy 3 word phrase to describe what people should think to themselves while being patient. Show ya luv? No that’s not it...

The huge difference between that situation and ours is that he didn't have a star in that interim period. We have two. Just two completely different phases of the success cycle. He accumulated assets then because that's the correct play when you don't have championship equity.

I'm pretty confident Morey is going to be all in rather quickly. The guy hasn't made a 1st round pick since 2015. He's said in countless interviews that once you have your stars and any championship equity, you have to go for it. I'm not saying that he's going to force a bad trade for the sake of it, but I don't expect him to be sitting and accumulating assets. There will be good trades available and I expect him to use our picks in them - if not for CP3 (less likely after today's news) or Oladipo, then for lesser guys like Covington, Hield, Dinwiddie, Redick, etc.