If We Lose Our Pick....

[Negrodamus]

I feel like I'm either losing the pick or getting Cooper Flagg every time I run the tankathon lottery. Been a lot of losing it recently, however.

[ProcessDoctor]

Less than 2 weeks away! Can’t wait to know our fate, good or bad.

[PhillyNj]

I’m a big believer in the NBA conspiracy theory. I don’t believe there’s any chance the NBA lets our pick go to OKC. The NBA want’s the Sixers fans attending the games and more importantly watching them. Most Sixer fans will abandon the team if the pick is lost. A Hugh financial loss for the NBA.

[Sixers in 4]

We lose our pick that means we are picking 6th or later. Not really a massive loss.

The real loss is losing the lottery and not getting a top 4 pick

[Samson]

We lose our pick that means we are picking 6th or later. Not really a massive loss.

The real loss is losing the lottery and not getting a top 4 pick

Our pick has already been traded , and is Top-6 Protected - if it's #7, #8, or #9 - it conveys to OKC.

#7 is actually the single statistically-most-likely odds to come up; however, the *combined* odds make it just under a 2/3rds chance we keep the pick... but 1/3+ ain't exactly chump change.

SO yeah, massive loss if we drop past 6.

[Sixers in 4]

We lose our pick that means we are picking 6th or later. Not really a massive loss.

The real loss is losing the lottery and not getting a top 4 pick

Our pick has already been traded , and is Top-6 Protected - if it's #7, #8, or #9 - it conveys to OKC.

#7 is actually the single statistically-most-likely odds to come up; however, the *combined* odds make it just under a 2/3rds chance we keep the pick... but 1/3+ ain't exactly chump change.

SO yeah, massive loss if we drop past 6.

I didn't realize that. I thought six wasn't protected. Regardless that was kind of my point the real loss is falling outside the top five not losing the pick because to me it's kind of the worst area of the draft.

You end up paying a prospect 40M over 4 for guys who even when they work out are often just rotation guys and when they don't like Hayes you are forced to buy them out because noone wants them.

[Embiid P]

When push comes to shove, I'd still rather us keep our pick. Chances are unless Embiid and/or PG are as injured/washed next year as they were this year, we'll likely be a playoff team (albeit a first or second round exit again) thus we'll probably be picking in the late teens or early 20s. Even if we were to miss out on Flagg or Harper, we can still use the pick as a sweetener in a trade for some team to take PG's contract off our hands and/or acquire a younger established/up-and-coming star.

[Stanford]

I haven't kept the pick in my last hundred spins. We're doomed.

[Zumramania]

Our odds with our 5th worst record:

1st Pick: 10.5%

2nd Pick: 10.5%

3rd Pick: 10.6%

4th Pick: 10.5%

5th Pick: 2.2%

6th Pick: 19.6%

7th Pick: 26.7%

8th Pick: 8.7%

9th Pick: 0.6%

I dunno if this has been posted here already but it is interesting. 7th pick is the most dangerous! But the odds are similar to 6th pick. After that it is any of the first 4.

[ivysixer2000]

I don't get it, we finished with the 5th worst record yet we only have a 2.2% chance of that pick.

What am I not getting?

[Samson]

I don't get it, we finished with the 5th worst record yet we only have a 2.2% chance of that pick.

What am I not getting?

I admit this is NOT my strong suit - and I am a *firm* believer in Lies, DAMNED LIES, & STATISTICS ... but I think what the deal is, is that they do some Statistical-type of stuff in order to bias the odds for Top-3 picks - I think in this case, top-4 ... the example I am thinking of is 2017? NHL Draft ? I think? - the NHL has a system where they definitely do some sort of statistical-weighing for Top-3 picks - which is how we moved up from 13? to #2 out of the blue - there is/was a (slightly varied by decimal point) ~2% chance of lucking-out and scoring a Top-3 pick, and if not, the odds *overwhelmingly* favor you staying where you are (based on the normal Draft/record/position system) , and likewise how there was a chance of moving up to a Top-3 pick, there is (an extremely small) chance of moving down 2 spots from your spot (in that particular case, the Flyers were supposed to be 13, so there was *very small* chances of going down to 14 or 15) ...

I think the NBA does something similar with their Draft and odds, and then it becomes a whole Mathematical / Statistical deal. AGAIN, NOT my strong-suit, and someone else smrter can surely explain it better... But I believe it's an example that can be compared to the Roulette wheel at the Casino- you see the electronic scoreboard above a table and "Ohh look!!! Black has come up like 9 times in a row! We need to go bet RED and we need to do it RIGHT NOW , Red is BOUND to come up, it's DUE, it's OVERDUE!!! --- Nope, not even son, the odds are the odds, and reset every time the ball is spun... I think it is a little like that in the Draft.

The reason(s) I THINK that there are higher odds of us NOT getting our exact position is because they do some Statistical Biasing-type of stuff to give you a shot of moving up, according to your exact position, and "balance it out" (without actually balancing it out exactly) by reducing the odds of you getting your exact spot , with also "balance-balancing" it by elevated odds you also can drop from your spot.

I can't tell if I sound **** crazy here or making the least-bit of sense, so I'll STFU now. But in the end- the key info for some people who apparently didn't realize- we need the pick to be from 1-6, because if it's 7 or below, we don't get it. And it's extremely likely this will be the best pick we have in the next damn-near-decade-to-come, because we have traded picks down the road big-time, have a terrible cap situation, and a roster constructed of a Big Three That Apparently Ain't All That Big, and very few "prospects" on the roster. So, this could be an absolutely pivotal pick for the next 5-10 years to come. --- Also, the "combined odds" of us keeping the pick (somewhere from 1-6) is by my middle-of-the-night-math 63.8 - which as I said in the earlier post, is not quite-but-damn-near-close to two-thirds of a chance of keeping it... and it just so happens that this is basically a ~6 person Draft ... although I obviously want to Hang With Mr. Cooper, if not one of the Rutgers duo - I guess I could live with one of the other 3 are both the same in Big Guards, and completely different - but anyway...

Watch on YouTube

[bball4life]

I don't get it, we finished with the 5th worst record yet we only have a 2.2% chance of that pick.

What am I not getting?

Samson put way more effort into trying to explain this but the short answer is that the only way we keep our exact pick is if no teams with a better record than us move up, and there's approximately a 70% chance that at least 1 team will leapfrog us to move into the top spots. So then add to that 70% the odds of the Sixer's moving up what's left is the 2 percent chance to stay.

[ivysixer2000]

Thanks guys for explaining it to me, I appreciate it.

[FlyingArrow]

I haven't kept the pick in my last hundred spins. We're doomed.

Impossible, but I agree that we're doomed.

[the_process]

I'm ready to call for Morey's head if they lose this pick since they didn't start full tanking earlier. The rationality is definitely leaving the room.

[Embiid P]

I'm ready to call for Morey's head if they lose this pick since they didn't start full tanking earlier. The rationality is definitely leaving the room.

As bad as some of Morey's moves have been, this one falls exclusively on the shoulders of his immediate predecessor for that God-awful Horford signing.

[76ciology]

If we lose our pick, we’ll have some flexibility to figure out our direction for next season, and I believe we’ll set a certain point of the season to decide whether to push for the playoffs or commit to a full on tank.

Normally, that kind of decision has to be made in the offseason, but our current roster gives us the luxury to stay adaptable. We’ve got players who can contribute immediately, complement our top players, and also young pieces who could both contribute and lead a tank if needed.

This roster is naturally built to compete for a playoff spot but can pivot to tanking if necessary, which is a far better position than being stuck with a roster designed to tank and then scrambling to contend.

You don’t need to have the worst record to have the top pick.

And if we hand over our pick to OKC, we’ll have our our own unprotected pick no matter what our record will be.

[the_process]

If we lose our pick, we’ll have some flexibility to figure out our direction for next season, and I believe we’ll set a certain point of the season to decide whether to push for the playoffs or commit to a full on tank.

Normally, that kind of decision has to be made in the offseason, but our current roster gives us the luxury to stay adaptable. We’ve got players who can contribute immediately, complement our top players, and also young pieces who could both contribute and lead a tank if needed.

This roster is naturally built to compete for a playoff spot but can pivot to tanking if necessary, which is a far better position than being stuck with a roster designed to tank and then scrambling to contend.

You don’t need to have the worst record to have the top pick.

And if we hand over our pick to OKC, we’ll have our our own unprotected pick no matter what our record will be.

There is little chance the Sixers will be able to recoup as valuable an asset as that pick would be, even at 6, in next year's draft.

They will not tank next year. And Morey won't be in selling mode, he'll be in buying mode.

It's also really hard to imagine Maxey and George being as hurt and ineffective next year as they were this year.

[mjkvol]

If we lose our pick, we’ll have some flexibility to figure out our direction for next season, and I believe we’ll set a certain point of the season to decide whether to push for the playoffs or commit to a full on tank.

Normally, that kind of decision has to be made in the offseason, but our current roster gives us the luxury to stay adaptable. We’ve got players who can contribute immediately, complement our top players, and also young pieces who could both contribute and lead a tank if needed.

This roster is naturally built to compete for a playoff spot but can pivot to tanking if necessary, which is a far better position than being stuck with a roster designed to tank and then scrambling to contend.

You don’t need to have the worst record to have the top pick.

And if we hand over our pick to OKC, we’ll have our our own unprotected pick no matter what our record will be.

I get your point, and agree regarding the flexibility of knowing we would have a pick next year. But any plan that is built around a 'healthy' Embiid and a 'revived' George is doomed to be a play in / first round exit team at best. The conference is getting better, with young teams ready to make a leap into real contention, so the reality is competing with the mediocre Bulls/Hawks/Heat/Raptors bunch for playoff scraps. If that is good enough, then by all means go for it.

My plan would be to move the dead weight ASAP, decide on who to keep from the young talent moving forward, accumulate as much draft capital as possible, and look to 2026 to really begin building. I'd be much happier with another lost season that is productive regarding clearing the deck than watching a 'battle' for a play-in spot with an unwatchable group built around our two 'stars'.

[mjkvol]

If we lose our pick, we’ll have some flexibility to figure out our direction for next season, and I believe we’ll set a certain point of the season to decide whether to push for the playoffs or commit to a full on tank.

Normally, that kind of decision has to be made in the offseason, but our current roster gives us the luxury to stay adaptable. We’ve got players who can contribute immediately, complement our top players, and also young pieces who could both contribute and lead a tank if needed.

This roster is naturally built to compete for a playoff spot but can pivot to tanking if necessary, which is a far better position than being stuck with a roster designed to tank and then scrambling to contend.

You don’t need to have the worst record to have the top pick.

And if we hand over our pick to OKC, we’ll have our our own unprotected pick no matter what our record will be.

There is little chance the Sixers will be able to recoup as valuable an asset as that pick would be, even at 6, in next year's draft.

They will not tank next year. And Morey won't be in selling mode, he'll be in buying mode.

It's also really hard to imagine Maxey and George being as hurt and ineffective next year as they were this year.

I unfortunately agree regarding the direction Morey will take, which will lead to a repeat of the Iggy years. Especially if he tries to go "all-in" if we are competitive in the first half of the season and Embiid appears to be 'healthy'.