Jailblazers7 wrote:FireMorey wrote:I believe in always taking upside in drafts. A lot of people think that if the Sixers stay at 3 and pick VJ and he ends up being a solid NBA player, that it wouldn't be a waste of a pick. I disagree. To me, drafting a solid player with a top 3 pick is just as bad as picking a total bust. Top 3 picks in the NBA are supposed to be needle movers. Me personally, I'd take a 10% chance at that over a 0% chance at that but with an 80% chance at being a 10 year pro who never is an all star. Not saying that describes Ace and VJ, just speaking generally.
I personally don't really want either. As I've said before I want them to go up for Harper or move down for Tre. But if we're talking Ace for VJ, then I'm team Ace because I believe his upside is higher even if I feel his risk of being a bust is also higher.
I disagree with you eval of VJ vs. Ace but setting that aside - how does the bolded sentence make any sense? Turning a valuable asset (#3 pick) into absolutely nothing is equivalent to recouping some value via a rotation level NBA player? Obviously the ideal outcome is that we draft a superstar but other potential outcomes can’t be completely ignored.
In a 2020 redraft, don’t you think the Warriors would rather have someone like Devin Vassell (good but not great player) at #2 vs. swinging for a grand slam and missing with Wiseman?
Just my 2 cents but I don't think that's at all how most NBA GMs think.
Most teams/GMs don't view the draft as a way to get immediate help, anyway. If they want good role players they'll just go get more proven one's in free agency or via trade. The point of the draft is largely to have an eye toward the future. While sure, every team needs role players in the future, a potential star is much more valuable, certainly when you are drafting top 5 or top 10 and the likelihood you can draft a kid with some level of real star potential is greater.
Of course, the specific circumstances of any 1 individual team or the quality of any one specific draft can have an effect on how GMs plan but if we are talking general thought processes they are more often than not going star power, if there's some reasonable chance at it. It's the lifeblood of the NBA. Stars are what make franchises relevant.