2022-2023 College Basketball / NBA Draft

[Kobblehead]

Who are the foul drawers in this class? Not referring to big men who naturally have higher FTr, but rather the guards/forwards who will need to get to the line when the offense is sputtering? This class is pretty terrible in that regard.

Amari Bailey started to do it well towards the end of the year. Sasser was pretty good. Keynote George was decent. No lottery guys really jump off the page in that category which is troubling.

Anthony Black is probably the top guy in that regard.

And in terms of freshman in general, even if they're projected 2nd round, Julian Phillips was great at getting to the line.

[Negrodamus]

Who are the foul drawers in this class? Not referring to big men who naturally have higher FTr, but rather the guards/forwards who will need to get to the line when the offense is sputtering? This class is pretty terrible in that regard.

Amari Bailey started to do it well towards the end of the year. Sasser was pretty good. Keynote George was decent. No lottery guys really jump off the page in that category which is troubling.

Anthony Black is probably the top guy in that regard.

And in terms of freshman in general, even if they're projected 2nd round, Julian Phillips was great at getting to the line.

I have essentially disqualified Black because of his terrible shooting and form.

The FTr of Phillips is the only reason to still be intrigued by him. He falls way too short in all other aspects I’m looking for, unfortunately.

[76ciology]

I’m still kinda confused by the Jabari Smith/Brandon Miller comparison. Isn’t Brandon a small forward? While Jabari a stretch forward, maybe even stretch 5 if he puts on weight?

Jack up tons of 3s because can shoot over most defenders on offense while have the length and athleticism to be good defenders. Their daddy is Jaren Jackson Jr.

[76ciology]

I’m still kinda confused by the Jabari Smith/Brandon Miller comparison. Isn’t Brandon a small forward? While Jabari a stretch forward, maybe even stretch 5 if he puts on weight?

Jack up tons of 3s because can shoot over most defenders on offense while have the length and athleticism to be good defenders. Their daddy is Jaren Jackson Jr.

[Kobblehead]

I don't see the Brandon Miller comp to those guys. He's closer to Brandon Ingram. He has nowhere near with strength and wide-shouldered frame of the stretch fours. He's a narrow framed long SG type like BI.

[Negrodamus]

I don't see the Brandon Miller comp to those guys. He's closer to Brandon Ingram. He has nowhere near with strength and wide-shouldered frame of the stretch fours. He's a narrow framed long SG type like BI.

Yea I can see that comp way more.

[Kobblehead]

Guys, I think Chet is a way better prospect than Wemby. Am I tripping?

[mjkvol]

Anyone have any strong takes on Grant Nelson of North Dakota State?

The last person to have a single digit Lane Agility Time was munchkin Jordan Bone back in 2019. Nelson did it at 6'10" 223 pounds. He also has a 7 foot wingspan.

His numbers are fantastic but he played in the damn Summit League:
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/grant-nelson-1.html

His video is nasty, he's got handle and creating abilities:

Watch on YouTube

I don't really see him showing up on mocks. I'd be super interested in him if he goes undrafted.

I know highlight reels are just that, but how on earth is a kid with his size and skills not being mocked?

[mjkvol]

Who are the foul drawers in this class? Not referring to big men who naturally have higher FTr, but rather the guards/forwards who will need to get to the line when the offense is sputtering? This class is pretty terrible in that regard.

Amari Bailey started to do it well towards the end of the year. Sasser was pretty good. Keynote George was decent. No lottery guys really jump off the page in that category which is troubling.

Anthony Black is probably the top guy in that regard.

And in terms of freshman in general, even if they're projected 2nd round, Julian Phillips was great at getting to the line.

I have essentially disqualified Black because of his terrible shooting and form.

The FTr of Phillips is the only reason to still be intrigued by him. He falls way too short in all other aspects I’m looking for, unfortunately.

My guess is that Philips stays in school and transfers somewhere that will allow him to showcase his game better than UT and Barnes' restrictive system.

[76ciology]

I don't see the Brandon Miller comp to those guys. He's closer to Brandon Ingram. He has nowhere near with strength and wide-shouldered frame of the stretch fours. He's a narrow framed long SG type like BI.

Yeah my bad there. Upon further looking i can see that. And i decide to put him back to #2 on my list

[Negrodamus]

I’m sure we all fear undersized guys in this thread, but one of the guys I’m feeling very good becoming at minimum a fringe all star is Marcus Sasser. He’s long, has a great shooting profile, creates turnovers. It was clear that Houston was in trouble when he was hobbled by his injury. Has Dame Lillard upside imo.

[76ciology]

I’m sure we all fear undersized guys in this thread, but one of the guys I’m feeling very good becoming at minimum a fringe all star is Marcus Sasser. He’s long, has a great shooting profile, creates turnovers. It was clear that Houston was in trouble when he was hobbled by his injury. Has Dame Lillard upside imo.

Yup. He checks all my boxes and was probably the first prospect im high on before i saw sensa and podziemski. I had him on lotto until recently when i did a deeper dive with the prospect but he should be at 13-15 range for me.

[76ciology]

Grant Nelson’s numbers dont checkout for me. He’s more show than substance

[Negrodamus]

I’m sure we all fear undersized guys in this thread, but one of the guys I’m feeling very good becoming at minimum a fringe all star is Marcus Sasser. He’s long, has a great shooting profile, creates turnovers. It was clear that Houston was in trouble when he was hobbled by his injury. Has Dame Lillard upside imo.

Yup. He checks all my boxes and was probably the first prospect im high on before i saw sensa and podziemski. I had him on lotto until recently when i did a deeper dive with the prospect but he should be at 13-15 range for me.

He’s prob top ten for me. Risky, but all NBA level upside.

[Kobblehead]

I can't really get behind the little guys in this class. Not even Scoot.

Only munchkin I like is Jalen Pickett. And he's probably not even getting drafted. If I needed a G and couldn't get my hands on Bailey or Bufkin, I'd probably just avoid the other guys altogether and try again next year.

[Mik317]

The Jabari/Miller comp isn't style its the upside issue I had with Jabari last year. Think both will be good pros with long careers barring stupid **** or injury; neither have the star upside you want out of a top 5 pick IMO. Miller MIGHT have some creation upside tho I will admit.

basically both are boring safe prospects that won't get you fired (barring the above issues) but neither move the needle for me if my team was picking in that same spot...in which most cases my team is ass so the high upside swing is more interesting. Its the ole Al Thornton V Thad Dilemma of olde lol.

[mjkvol]

How many of the teams picking in the top 10 (aside from SA, of course) do you guys think are going to be actively trying to trade down or out altogether?

[Kobblehead]

Brandon Miller is having one of the worst predraft interview cycles since Josh Jackson. I'd say he's the least safe pick in the entire lottery at this point. Personally, I wouldn't even draft him based on what allegedly happened.

[Kobblehead]

How many of the teams picking in the top 10 (aside from SA, of course) do you guys think are going to be actively trying to trade down or out altogether?

I think Portland wants to trade the pick. Or it's a wrap for the Dame Lillard era.

I could see the Rockets wanting to move the pick because the idea of bringing in another 19 or 20 year with the immature clowns they already have might be too much to handle. Harden might implore them to trade the pick for a more proven vet.

I doubt the Magic pick at both 6 and 11. They already have an extensive core of young guys. It's only possible to develop a finite amount of guys at the same time. They might already have too much youth. I could see them either packaging to move up for the top guy on their draft board or trading one of them picks.

[Negrodamus]

Caleb Martin is trending as a great role player Miami discovered.

2.4 STL%, .402 FTr, 6.0 OBPM, 2.8 DBPM, 16.3 AST%, 73% FT (but 75% his jr year), 53% 2FG....

Those numbers are a top 5 pick if they came from a freshman. Hitting > 2 STL%, >.300 FTr, >6 BPM, >15 AST%, >75% FT, >50% 2FG seems like a fail proof guideline for getting, at minimum, a role player in the NBA. There is obviously flexibility with those numbers and other factors involved such as physical attributes, but those general markers are usually the sign of someone who has a chance at making it in the league.

Cody Martin also had the goods, but hasn't found the right fit yet (and might never).