2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft - Volume III

[CPops57]

Just a small comment regarding the upside/ceiling discussion in the draft.

Think about process legend TJ McConnell. This undrafted, scrappy gym rat who nobody thought had any conceivable ceiling worth anything beyond maybe being a backup PG is currently a key player in the NBA Finals. He's basically getting standing ovations whenever he checks in or out.

Go back and look at the Top 10 picks of his draft. I think only 3 of those players are still in the NBA, though a few of the others are still playing overseas. TJ has had a better NBA career than at least 7 of those top 10, and arguably 8 depending on whether or not you view DLo's production as closer to "meaningless empty calories" or not.

Go back and read some of those top 10 players draft profiles: they never ended up panning out despite that limitless athleticism and length.

Take a couple of examples at random:

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/justise-winslow/ NBA Comparison: James Harden/Wilson Chandler
https://www.nbadraft.net/players/stanley-johnson/ NBA Comparison: Kawhi Leonard/Ron Artest

Take a look at some of those descriptions about their weaknesses and think about whether or not they were able to make meaningful changes to their mentality and skills. Think about that when you see these gaudy draft descriptions in the coming week and people talking about ceiling and upside.

[sodmoraes]

This was an interesting read on the guards in the draft. Has input from a bunch if scouts.

https://www.removepaywall.com/search?url=https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6429478/2025/06/18/nba-draft-confidential-guard-2025/?source=emp_shared_article

Some scouts saying that Harper doesnt have a high ceiling and i agree. He will be good, but if his 3 ball doesnt improve i dont think he´s all that. He will be good, but i dont think i would give the clippers pick for him.

[Negrodamus]

Just a small comment regarding the upside/ceiling discussion in the draft.

Think about process legend TJ McConnell. This undrafted, scrappy gym rat who nobody thought had any conceivable ceiling worth anything beyond maybe being a backup PG is currently a key player in the NBA Finals. He's basically getting standing ovations whenever he checks in or out.

Go back and look at the Top 10 picks of his draft. I think only 3 of those players are still in the NBA, though a few of the others are still playing overseas. TJ has had a better NBA career than at least 7 of those top 10, and arguably 8 depending on whether or not you view DLo's production as closer to "meaningless empty calories" or not.

Go back and read some of those top 10 players draft profiles: they never ended up panning out despite that limitless athleticism and length.

Take a couple of examples at random:

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/justise-winslow/ NBA Comparison: James Harden/Wilson Chandler
https://www.nbadraft.net/players/stanley-johnson/ NBA Comparison: Kawhi Leonard/Ron Artest

Take a look at some of those descriptions about their weaknesses and think about whether or not they were able to make meaningful changes to their mentality and skills. Think about that when you see these gaudy draft descriptions in the coming week and people talking about ceiling and upside.

For me, Stanley Johnson had the percentages to be alluring and looked the part of an NBA player, but he wasn’t a volume shooter. Also not a major distributor (but not to a prohibitive level). Winslow is different in that he had all the advanced stats to believe in him, but he wasn’t particularly prolific, which is likely due to the role he played.

An underrated piece of prospects panning out is also the team they go to. Stanley could’ve been something more, but the Pistons were insanely bad for so long. Winslow is a bit of a head scratcher for me; I didn’t like him back then but I don’t recall why. Did he have a goofy jumper or something?

As it relates to this draft, a guy like VJ was extremely prolific and had excellent advanced stats. My only question is his body and if he has the jumper to comfortably do pull up jumpers.

Ace doesn’t have the advanced stats but does have the prolific scoring and rebounding. Looks the part of a 2000-2015 prototype SF but needs weight. Great pull-up midrange, questionable consistency and volume elsewhere.

Tre doesn’t have the defensive profile to be a real contributor in the finals. Subject to change, but TJ was an all world defender in college despite being smaller and more limited athletically.

Just adding my thoughts but thanks for the thought provoking post in the desert of weird draft banter.

[sodmoraes]

"Tre Johnson | 6-5 wing | 19 years old | Texas
Eastern Conference scout No. 1: He has a chance to be one of the top-three players. He has the talent to do it. And I think he has the mindset. He’s been a really hard player to like. I’ve watched him for three years. He’s a hard player to like, because he seems like he’s a selfish player. … He wants to win, and he tries to win, but the only way he thinks he can win is doing it himself. He didn’t have a good team in Texas, but he’s been on some good teams when he was bad. He was on the USA Basketball (U-19) team in Europe. His body language and his game didn’t support all the hype he was getting. But this year, I was at some of his best games. In the end … he’s just f—– good. He can score. On a team devoid of scoring, there’s something to be said for that. … The shot-making is going to give him a chance. It’s going to be about fit for him. Like Brandon Miller, maybe, where he goes to a place and plays really well. But if he goes to a s—-y team, he might look s—-y. If he has a couple of good vets around that can help him and that he respects, he has a chance to be good. Tre is the hardest worker, from everybody I’ve talked to, at Texas."

Seems like Tre may be a ball hog...

[Negrodamus]

https://walterfootball.com/nbascoutingreport2011kleonard.php

Strengths:
Athleticism
Crashing the boards
Offensive rebounder
Active defender
Can guard multiple positions
Non-stop work ethic
Impacts the game without needing to score
Ability to rebound and lead the break
Attacking the basket
Dangerous in transition
Ball handler
Can create for teammates off the bounce
Good passer
Usually displays good patience on the offensive end


Weaknesses:
Three-point shooting
Inconsistent mid-range jumper
Tends to over-dribble
Forces penetration when it is not there

Not saying he is Kawhi, but this sounds like someone.

[Jailblazers7]

If anybody’s draft stock has been boosted from the Finals, I think it’s VJ. Hyper athletic point of attack defender with enough to his offensive game to slot into multiple different roles (plus star upside if his handle develops). I can easily see Maxey & VJ guarding 94 feet the same way we see both Finals teams playing.

[CPops57]

Seems like Tre may be a ball hog...

Maybe I'm wrong, but I think a better description for Tre might be closer to "needs to play on the ball to maximize his production" rather than calling him a ball hog. You can certainly just stick him in the corner as a shooter or run him off screens and he's good at all of that, but it's minimizing the value he produces. I think he's best suited for a team that can have him dominating the ball a bit pretty early on.

Personally, I like his potential, but I'm not sure if he's the right choice for this team with Maxey/McCain already here and needing more reps and experience creating on-ball for others. If Tre was a good defender, that would be a little easier to swallow because he could at least make up for their defensive weaknesses, but he's not.

[FireMorey]

I think it's a mistake to view the Finals as anything other than in a vacuum. I think people are making too much of the success of the Pacers. That's not to take anything away from the Pacers, but people do this every year. Every year people look at the two teams in the Finals and go "We must build our team that way!" This year the hot flavor is "We don't need a true top 5 superstar, we just need a bunch of really competent playable players who can dribble and shoot!" For one, easier said than done. Two, Carlisle is one of the best coaches in the NBA and not everyone has a Rick Carlisle. Three, if you think about it is really illogical, because what if the T-Wolves trade for Durant and then go to the Finals next year. So then it's back to amassing superstars again? Different types of teams make it to the Finals for different reasons. Just build the best team you can with the best players you can and never change course just based on what the recent Finals matchup is.

[Jailblazers7]

I think it's a mistake to view the Finals as anything other than in a vacuum. I think people are making too much of the success of the Pacers. That's not to take anything away from the Pacers, but people do this every year. Every year people look at the two teams in the Finals and go "We must build our team that way!" This year the hot flavor is "We don't need a true top 5 superstar, we just need a bunch of really competent playable players who can dribble and shoot!" For one, easier said than done. Two, Carlisle is one of the best coaches in the NBA and not everyone has a Rick Carlisle. Three, if you think about it is really illogical, because what if the T-Wolves trade for Durant and then go to the Finals next year. So then it's back to amassing superstars again? Different types of teams make it to the Finals for different reasons. Just build the best team you can with the best players you can and never change course just based on what the recent Finals matchup is.

I haven’t seen anyone claiming that - in fact the opposite lesson is probably true. OKC has a true top 5 superstar in SGA that has been able to carry their team consistently, which has been the difference in the series. Halliburton is a top 10ish player but too inconsistent.

But the Finals does have some lessons for roster building - guard heavy lineups with capable POA defenders that can disrupt your opponents offensive system. Boston built around those themes as well with Jrue, White, and Brown being their POA disrupters. Not every team can or should replicate that style but it’s a real theme of the playoffs.

[FireMorey]

I think it's a mistake to view the Finals as anything other than in a vacuum. I think people are making too much of the success of the Pacers. That's not to take anything away from the Pacers, but people do this every year. Every year people look at the two teams in the Finals and go "We must build our team that way!" This year the hot flavor is "We don't need a true top 5 superstar, we just need a bunch of really competent playable players who can dribble and shoot!" For one, easier said than done. Two, Carlisle is one of the best coaches in the NBA and not everyone has a Rick Carlisle. Three, if you think about it is really illogical, because what if the T-Wolves trade for Durant and then go to the Finals next year. So then it's back to amassing superstars again? Different types of teams make it to the Finals for different reasons. Just build the best team you can with the best players you can and never change course just based on what the recent Finals matchup is.

I haven’t seen anyone claiming that - in fact the opposite lesson is probably true. OKC has a true top 5 superstar in SGA that has been able to carry their team consistently, which has been the difference in the series. Halliburton is a top 10ish player but too inconsistent.

But the Finals does have some lessons for roster building - guard heavy lineups with capable POA defenders that can disrupt your opponents offensive system. Boston built around those themes as well with Jrue, White, and Brown being their POA disrupters. Not every team can or should replicate that style but it’s a real theme of the playoffs.

All over social media for the last several weeks I've seen lots of posts of "Watching the Pacers makes me realizes, what the Sixers need is...." or "I want the Sixers to draft ____ because watching the Pacers shows you really need...." etc.

[Jailblazers7]

I think it's a mistake to view the Finals as anything other than in a vacuum. I think people are making too much of the success of the Pacers. That's not to take anything away from the Pacers, but people do this every year. Every year people look at the two teams in the Finals and go "We must build our team that way!" This year the hot flavor is "We don't need a true top 5 superstar, we just need a bunch of really competent playable players who can dribble and shoot!" For one, easier said than done. Two, Carlisle is one of the best coaches in the NBA and not everyone has a Rick Carlisle. Three, if you think about it is really illogical, because what if the T-Wolves trade for Durant and then go to the Finals next year. So then it's back to amassing superstars again? Different types of teams make it to the Finals for different reasons. Just build the best team you can with the best players you can and never change course just based on what the recent Finals matchup is.

I haven’t seen anyone claiming that - in fact the opposite lesson is probably true. OKC has a true top 5 superstar in SGA that has been able to carry their team consistently, which has been the difference in the series. Halliburton is a top 10ish player but too inconsistent.

But the Finals does have some lessons for roster building - guard heavy lineups with capable POA defenders that can disrupt your opponents offensive system. Boston built around those themes as well with Jrue, White, and Brown being their POA disrupters. Not every team can or should replicate that style but it’s a real theme of the playoffs.

All over social media for the last several weeks I've seen lots of posts of "Watching the Pacers makes me realizes, what the Sixers need is...." or "I want the Sixers to draft ____ because watching the Pacers shows you really need...." etc.

Well, I’m not really on social media so that explains why I haven’t hear much of that lol

[youngcrev]

I think it's a mistake to view the Finals as anything other than in a vacuum. I think people are making too much of the success of the Pacers. That's not to take anything away from the Pacers, but people do this every year. Every year people look at the two teams in the Finals and go "We must build our team that way!" This year the hot flavor is "We don't need a true top 5 superstar, we just need a bunch of really competent playable players who can dribble and shoot!" For one, easier said than done. Two, Carlisle is one of the best coaches in the NBA and not everyone has a Rick Carlisle. Three, if you think about it is really illogical, because what if the T-Wolves trade for Durant and then go to the Finals next year. So then it's back to amassing superstars again? Different types of teams make it to the Finals for different reasons. Just build the best team you can with the best players you can and never change course just based on what the recent Finals matchup is.

I haven’t seen anyone claiming that - in fact the opposite lesson is probably true. OKC has a true top 5 superstar in SGA that has been able to carry their team consistently, which has been the difference in the series. Halliburton is a top 10ish player but too inconsistent.

But the Finals does have some lessons for roster building - guard heavy lineups with capable POA defenders that can disrupt your opponents offensive system. Boston built around those themes as well with Jrue, White, and Brown being their POA disrupters. Not every team can or should replicate that style but it’s a real theme of the playoffs.

All over social media for the last several weeks I've seen lots of posts of "Watching the Pacers makes me realizes, what the Sixers need is...." or "I want the Sixers to draft ____ because watching the Pacers shows you really need...." etc.

People do it every year. Hell, teams do it every year. Hence the "it's a copycat league" mantra.

I actually wonder if the NBA tries to scale back on the physicality they are allowing on the perimeter, which would devalue some of the high end POA defenders a little (I hope they don't though).

They made point of emphasis changes before the 23-24 season to cut back on letting the offense be able to do whatever the hell they wanted in terms of moving screens and not letting offensive players do the nonsense jump into guy stuff (does not apply to Jalen Brunson for whatever reason...). And what do you know? Teams with elite perimeter defenders start wrecking people.

[youngcrev]

Just listened to Kon on Bill Simmons.

He's got a zoom call scheduled with us, but no workout.

[Arsenal]

Ace Bailey NOT interested in going to Utah! Lights ain't bright enough for a big-time star!! They'll be forced to trade up for VJ otherwise they're rolling snake eyes sitting at #5!!!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UtahJazz/comments/1ldtxyj/ace_bailey_reported_to_have_no_interest_in_utah/

Trade down with Utah and STILL getting Ace is the best case scenario.

[Jailblazers7]

No way Utah is able to pass up Kon - we all know they have a type lol

[mjkvol]

If anybody’s draft stock has been boosted from the Finals, I think it’s VJ. Hyper athletic point of attack defender with enough to his offensive game to slot into multiple different roles (plus star upside if his handle develops). I can easily see Maxey & VJ guarding 94 feet the same way we see both Finals teams playing.

I'm pretty much settled with one of two scenarios - trading back a few spots and grabbing Kon or Jaku and possibly a Coward or Fleming later in the 1st, or if a trade can't be worked out just sit tight and take whichever one of Harper or VJ is on the board at #3. If we get any of those four players, I'll be a happy camper.

[sodmoraes]

No way Utah is able to pass up Kon - we all know they have a type lol

[76ciology]

[x]

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=bJcUtOCSwzTqqyZgysWpbQ[/x]

[sixers hoops]

Ace Bailey NOT interested in going to Utah! Lights ain't bright enough for a big-time star!! They'll be forced to trade up for VJ otherwise they're rolling snake eyes sitting at #5!!!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UtahJazz/comments/1ldtxyj/ace_bailey_reported_to_have_no_interest_in_utah/

Trade down with Utah and STILL getting Ace is the best case scenario.

Any rumors on realistic compensation? I would think that Morey would press for an unprotected first, or a very lightly protected first. Most rumors in the past have him asking for an almost unrealistic return. Seems like he would want a pick that he projects to eventually land in the top 10 or so.

[stormi]

Just a small comment regarding the upside/ceiling discussion in the draft.

Think about process legend TJ McConnell. This undrafted, scrappy gym rat who nobody thought had any conceivable ceiling worth anything beyond maybe being a backup PG is currently a key player in the NBA Finals. He's basically getting standing ovations whenever he checks in or out.

Go back and look at the Top 10 picks of his draft. I think only 3 of those players are still in the NBA, though a few of the others are still playing overseas. TJ has had a better NBA career than at least 7 of those top 10, and arguably 8 depending on whether or not you view DLo's production as closer to "meaningless empty calories" or not.

Go back and read some of those top 10 players draft profiles: they never ended up panning out despite that limitless athleticism and length.

Take a couple of examples at random:

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/justise-winslow/ NBA Comparison: James Harden/Wilson Chandler
https://www.nbadraft.net/players/stanley-johnson/ NBA Comparison: Kawhi Leonard/Ron Artest

Take a look at some of those descriptions about their weaknesses and think about whether or not they were able to make meaningful changes to their mentality and skills. Think about that when you see these gaudy draft descriptions in the coming week and people talking about ceiling and upside.

"Wingflation" is real. The most parasitic ponzi scheme in modern draft etiquette is bad basketball players getting shoehorned into the top of the draft purely due to positional value & unquantifiable upside based on that position. However Bailey might be the most egregious case in recent history.



There were multiple months of play this past season where he was quite literally a worse prospect than JT Thor at Auburn.

To have the ability to be a star you have to first cross into the border of just being a competent NBA entity (pass, dribble, shoot). Ace is the most flawed player within the top 10 of consensus mocks. Without the ability to elevate those around you, there exists zero star upside.