Welcome Okafor: Thread 2

[CoreyGallagher]

Can we lean off the rebounding some? Both bigs rebounded about the same rate without the other and the team rebounded 2.2% better per 100 possessions with Okafor than with Noel.

[tk76]

Yet this was written on Draftexpress about Marc Gasol's after his 24 year old rookie campaign. Much seems to apply to Jah, who was 5 years younger as a rookie:

Much of what we documented about Gasol during his European career has held true during his rookie season in the NBA. Given his lack of vertical explosiveness and lateral quickness, he actually creates a surprising number of defensive turnovers (1.0 STLPG, 1.5 BLKPG); however, he still struggles whenever forced to guard perimeter oriented big men or the pick-and-roll. When guarding ball screens, the Grizzlies seem to hedge most frequently, which often results in Gasol getting caught outside of the three point arc and failing to rotate successfully back to his man. Gasol must improve upon his conditioning to improve his lateral quickness and pick-and-roll defense to avoid becoming a defensive liability moving forward. If he fails in this department and/or the Grizzlies don't improve their interior defense this offseason by surrounding him with more talent, we can expect to see Memphis continue their defensive struggles through another season.

In instances where Gasol is defending the interior, he holds his ground well, although he rarely makes highlight-reel defensive stops. Since he's a step slow, he's a victim of quick-footed bigs possessing great wheel or seal moves which pin him on the backside of the offensive player. And although he'll never really be the type of intimidating, explosive defender the Grizzlies desperately need, Gasol still shows good fundamentals to counter the offensive skill sets of more talented NBA players and keep them out of the lane.

Help side defense is the area in which Gasol must improve his defensive game the most. As we previously wrote, he often allows smaller defenders to shoot over him and lacks lateral quickness - both of which usually equate to subpar defense. Gasol also tends to play lackadaisically off the ball, rarely knocking down cutters and looking to aggressively box out on when shots goo up. If he improves on his work ethic and hustle, we should see him develop into a respectable NBA defender - particularly if he increases his tenacity against more athletic players. Being a member of a struggling defensive system like Memphis' certainly hurts Gasol's numbers, but the addition of another interior presence this offseason should help the team's defensive play.

My point is not that Jah will become a great defender like Gasol. It is that Gasol himself struggled defensively as a rookie... at age 24.

Defense translates right away for guys who rely on freak athleticism. But guys who are a step slow but have good size and length often take a few more years to adapt. They need to be in the right place and make the right decision and cannot rely on explosiveness to cover for potential mistakes. While someone like Nerlens can bite on a fake but still be quick enough to recover and make a block or steal, so they are not as exposed for their initial poor decisionmaking as young players.

Jah has elite strength and length. If he learns to put himself in the right position then he will be an effective defender and rebounder- at least in the lane. I think we need to wait a year or two to determine whether he has the dedication and ability to make these adjustments. We did not get the chance to see if he would improve over the course of a few years in college (many guys become better defenders with a couple years of seasoning), so at very least I plan on holding off on a long term conclusion until he is age 22.

For this season I'm mainly focussing on whether he makes quicker decisions with the ball (esp passing) and whether his improved strength and fitness translate into improved rebounding. To me, Jah's ceiling is a Karl Malone style big. But he needs to get much better on the boards and much more rugged in his style of play to get there. But for this year, I'm hoping to at least see he makes positive strides in that direction. But I'm going to wait until he is old enough to be a college senior before I close the book on him making positive progress in any and all areas.

[phifans]

I doubt I've committed any error in evaluating either player. I don't just arbitrarily pick on players. There are reasons I don't think Okafor has a good chance to be a rim protector or great rebounder. The error YOU are making in evaluation, is ignoring history and ignoring what skills generally develop farther, as a player gets older.

There are no better predictive stats than Rebounds, Blocks and Steals for prospects and young players. Its common knowledge that those things show a young player's aptitude and physical dominance over their peers. Okafor couldn't dominate in those categories in college against his peers and he was downright bad against NBA players. Players don't just begin to "learn" to rebound and block shots. It doesn't happen. They learn to shoot, learn to not commit turnovers and learn offensive systems. Those are things that improve dramatically. Okafor doesn't just need to improve a little, he needs to improve a LOT at his deficiencies to become an adequate Center. The things he is good at (outside of FT shooting potential) aren't that valuable. The things he is bad at, don't generally get significantly better. Noel is already good at what he needs to be good at. The things he's bad at, are things that commonly get better with age. That's why he's the more valuable player.

First. I don't make evaluation on Player B based on Player A's history.
Second. I won't make conclusion on a player before his rookie contract ends.
Third. I don't rank skills as "more valuable or less valuable" . All basketball skills are eaqually valuable to me.
Four. We all know your theory about defensive center is " more valuable" than offensive center. I respect it and Im not gonna argue it with you ( not because I totally agree with you , its just not a "which one is better" kinda of question. Its much more complicated ).

I think all we need to do right now is to put all these disagreement aside and look forward for the coming season. Time is the best answer to all the question.

[76ciology]

I'm not concerned with his defense. With better teammates on D and expecting better rebounding from Jah next season, I don't think it would be an issue. I do think he's one of the most mobile, strong and skilled bigs in the NBA.

Things will get better.

[LloydFree]

Can we lean off the rebounding some? Both bigs rebounded about the same rate without the other and the team rebounded 2.2% better per 100 possessions with Okafor than with Noel.

Okafor was #30 amongst all Centers in Defensive Rebounds/g and #64 overall.
N Noel was #10 amongst all P Forwards in Defensive Rebounds/g, #32 overall.

Okafor was #91 in Defensive rebound rate. Among the players better: Spencer Hawes, Carl Landry, Noah Vonleh, Thadeus Young, Ronde Hollis-Jefferson (a guard) and Nerlens Noel.

[CoreyGallagher]

Can we lean off the rebounding some? Both bigs rebounded about the same rate without the other and the team rebounded 2.2% better per 100 possessions with Okafor than with Noel.

Okafor was #30 amongst all Centers in Defensive Rebounds/g and #64 overall.
N Noel was #10 amongst all P Forwards in Defensive Rebounds/g, #32 overall.

Okafor was #91 in Defensive rebound rate. Among the players better: Spencer Hawes, Carl Landry, Noah Vonleh, Thadeus Young, Ronde Hollis-Jefferson (a guard) and Nerlens Noel.

Okay. He probably boxed out too much which still seemed to benefit the team. As I mentioned - without the other big - Okafor (without Noel) and Noel (without Okafor) they rebounded about the same rate, but whoever Okafor was paired with in the front court also rebounded much better with him. Grant, Covington (even Noel himself) rebounded better and the team rebounded better with Okafor - we pulled down 2.2 more rebounds per 100 possessions to be exact.

I'm not implying that either is much of a rebounder, just that it's not a facet of the game that I'm willing to sell either of them on.

[the_process]

Yet this was written on Draftexpress about Marc Gasol's after his 24 year old rookie campaign. Much seems to apply to Jah, who was 5 years younger as a rookie:

Much of what we documented about Gasol during his European career has held true during his rookie season in the NBA. Given his lack of vertical explosiveness and lateral quickness, he actually creates a surprising number of defensive turnovers (1.0 STLPG, 1.5 BLKPG); however, he still struggles whenever forced to guard perimeter oriented big men or the pick-and-roll.When guarding ball screens, the Grizzlies seem to hedge most frequently, which often results in Gasol getting caught outside of the three point arc and failing to rotate successfully back to his man. Gasol must improve upon his conditioning to improve his lateral quickness and pick-and-roll defense to avoid becoming a defensive liability moving forward.If he fails in this department and/or the Grizzlies don't improve their interior defense this offseason by surrounding him with more talent, we can expect to see Memphis continue their defensive struggles through another season.

In instances where Gasol is defending the interior, he holds his ground well, although he rarely makes highlight-reel defensive stops. Since he's a step slow, he's a victim of quick-footed bigs possessing great wheel or seal moves which pin him on the backside of the offensive player. And although he'll never really be the type of intimidating, explosive defender the Grizzlies desperately need, Gasol still shows good fundamentals to counter the offensive skill sets of more talented NBA players and keep them out of the lane.

Help side defense is the area in which Gasol must improve his defensive game the most. As we previously wrote, he often allows smaller defenders to shoot over him and lacks lateral quickness - both of which usually equate to subpar defense. Gasol also tends to play lackadaisically off the ball, rarely knocking down cutters and looking to aggressively box out on when shots goo up. If he improves on his work ethic and hustle, we should see him develop into a respectable NBA defender - particularly if he increases his tenacity against more athletic players.Being a member of a struggling defensive system like Memphis' certainly hurts Gasol's numbers, but the addition of another interior presence this offseason should help the team's defensive play.

You highlighted the wrong parts IMO.

[spikeslovechild]

Can we lean off the rebounding some? Both bigs rebounded about the same rate without the other and the team rebounded 2.2% better per 100 possessions with Okafor than with Noel.

Okafor was #30 amongst all Centers in Defensive Rebounds/g and #64 overall.
N Noel was #10 amongst all P Forwards in Defensive Rebounds/g, #32 overall.

Okafor was #91 in Defensive rebound rate. Among the players better: Spencer Hawes, Carl Landry, Noah Vonleh, Thadeus Young, Ronde Hollis-Jefferson (a guard) and Nerlens Noel.

Okay. He probably boxed out too much which still seemed to benefit the team. As I mentioned - without the other big - Okafor (without Noel) and Noel (without Okafor) rebounded about the same rate, but whoever Okafor was paired with in the front court also rebounded much better with him than with Noel. Grant, Covington (even Noel himself) rebounded better and the team rebounded better with Okafor, pulled down 2.2 more rebounds per 100 possessions to be exact.

I'm not implying that either is much of a rebounder, just that it's not a facet of the game that I'm willing to sell either of them on.

This isn't the first time he has been told this.

I'm also in total agreement with you on the last point as well BOTH Okafor and Noel need to improve their rebounding. I have hopes that Okafor will because despite Lyod claims which again he has been told players improve their rebounding all the time. I can name names but why bother to do the research for the upteenth time. Okafor was also a .500 free throw shooter in college. That didn't stop him from developing that area of his game. Nor did it stop him from gaining a legitimate jumpshot. He has the size skill and strength to be an excellent rebounder in this league.

Now it's upto the coaching staff and Okafor himself to get it out of him.

[76ciology]

Jahlil Okafor, Philadelphia 76ers: “I’m getting used to defending NBA big men. I’m getting used to defending the pick-and-roll when you’re playing against a really good point guard and a really good big man. The coaches have told me that they’re happy with the way that I’m developing and I am as well. … I think I learned a ton – about myself, about the NBA and just how everything works. I think I continue to learn every day.”

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-saturday-players-discuss-offseason-work/

[rzzzzz]

Okay. He probably boxed out too much which still seemed to benefit the team. As I mentioned - without the other big - Okafor (without Noel) and Noel (without Okafor) they rebounded about the same rate, but whoever Okafor was paired with in the front court also rebounded much better with him. Grant, Covington (even Noel himself) rebounded better and the team rebounded better with Okafor - we pulled down 2.2 more rebounds per 100 possessions to be exact.

adding Embiid, Saric and Simmons, it's well possible that even if Okafor and Noel developed into better rebounders, we wouldn't see their numbers go up that much, depending on who they are paired with.

[76ciology]

Read on Twitter

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

Jahlil Okafor, Philadelphia 76ers: “I’m getting used to defending NBA big men. I’m getting used to defending the pick-and-roll when you’re playing against a really good point guard and a really good big man. The coaches have told me that they’re happy with the way that I’m developing and I am as well. … I think I learned a ton – about myself, about the NBA and just how everything works. I think I continue to learn every day.”

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-saturday-players-discuss-offseason-work/

He just needs to show it on the floor. I love the offseason hype, I like that he's gotten into better shape as well, Okafor is more than capable of silencing the critics.

[76thBearCub]

If it was me I think I would showcase Okafor for the first half of the season and see if we can improve his trade value. Aka the old pump and dump.

[LloydFree]

If it was me I think I would showcase Okafor for the first half of the season and see if we can improve his trade value. Aka the old pump and dump.

If Hinkie were here, he would do that. I don't think BC will do that though, most GMs won't get rid of a high lottery pick this early. They'd sooner see him bust than cut their losses.

[76thBearCub]

If it was me I think I would showcase Okafor for the first half of the season and see if we can improve his trade value. Aka the old pump and dump.

If Hinkie were here, he would do that. I don't think BC will do that though, most GMs won't get rid of a high lottery pick this early. They'd sooner see him bust than cut their losses.

I think you are right in general but in this situation BC didn't make the pick so he doesn't have as much to lose with it.

[Ericb5]

If it was me I think I would showcase Okafor for the first half of the season and see if we can improve his trade value. Aka the old pump and dump.

If Hinkie were here, he would do that. I don't think BC will do that though, most GMs won't get rid of a high lottery pick this early. They'd sooner see him bust than cut their losses.

You can trade a high lottery pick early as long as you are getting real value for him. The Sixers are in the envious position of not really NEEDING Okafor. He is more of a luxury than a building block.

We have to recognize his talent level, and not undersell him, but we do have some wiggle room with him. I think that Hinkie or BC could realistically trade him, as long as they aren't throwing him away.


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[tk76]

It definitely is tricky. MCW was more straightforward, given he was a later lottery pick and entered the NBA 3 years older than Jah. It was easier for Hinkie to be fairly confident he knew what he had in MCW and what he would become. While with Jah it is a more difficult to get a long term read on. He is a few years younger, and he is the best in the league at what he does at age 20 (iso big scoring.) The problem is, that it is not entirely clear how much to value that skill. It is also unclear whether his weaknesses will be a small or a huge problem long term once he reaches his peak. If he was undersized, say like a modern day Corliss Williamson, then it would be easy to project him as a future bench scorer. But with his strength and wingspan, he could still develop into a decent defender- he already flashes as good in iso defense against other bigs. So the range of outcomes is still really broad to consider giving him up for a non-high ceiling return.

In a way, Noel is easier to value. You sort of know what he is and what he will soon be paid, so its easier to figure out what you should get in return. That, and he is easier to slot into other teams, so the other team is similarly taking on less risk.

[Ericb5]

It definitely is tricky. MCW was more straightforward, given he was a later lottery pick and entered the NBA 3 years older than Jah. It was easier for Hinkie to be fairly confident he knew what he had in MCW and what he would become. While with Jah it is a more difficult to get a long term read on. He is a few years younger, and he is the best in the league at what he does at age 20 (iso big scoring.) The problem is, that it is not entirely clear how much to value that skill. It is also unclear whether his weaknesses will be a small or a huge problem long term once he reaches his peak. If he was undersized, say like a modern day Corliss Williamson, then it would be easy to project him as a future bench scorer. But with his strength and wingspan, he could still develop into a decent defender- he already flashes as good in iso defense against other bigs. So the range of outcomes is still really broad to consider giving him up for a non-high ceiling return.

In a way, Noel is easier to value. You sort of know what he is and what he will soon be paid, so its easier to figure out what you should get in return. That, and he is easier to slot into other teams, so the other team is similarly taking on less risk.

Well said, and I agree. Okafor still has considerable upside, and we certainly don't want to trade him for too little, and then watch him grow into a mug better player.

Noel is what he is. He will get stronger, but I don't know how much more skilled he is going to get. He could help a team today, and if he never improves at all, if he is in the right situation, he can be an impact defender.




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[spikeslovechild]

It definitely is tricky. MCW was more straightforward, given he was a later lottery pick and entered the NBA 3 years older than Jah. It was easier for Hinkie to be fairly confident he knew what he had in MCW and what he would become. While with Jah it is a more difficult to get a long term read on. He is a few years younger, and he is the best in the league at what he does at age 20 (iso big scoring.) The problem is, that it is not entirely clear how much to value that skill. It is also unclear whether his weaknesses will be a small or a huge problem long term once he reaches his peak. If he was undersized, say like a modern day Corliss Williamson, then it would be easy to project him as a future bench scorer. But with his strength and wingspan, he could still develop into a decent defender- he already flashes as good in iso defense against other bigs. So the range of outcomes is still really broad to consider giving him up for a non-high ceiling return.

In a way, Noel is easier to value. You sort of know what he is and what he will soon be paid, so its easier to figure out what you should get in return. That, and he is easier to slot into other teams, so the other team is similarly taking on less risk.

Well said, and I agree. Okafor still has considerable upside, and we certainly don't want to trade him for too little, and then watch him grow into a mug better player.

Noel is what he is. He will get stronger, but I don't know how much more skilled he is going to get. He could help a team today, and if he never improves at all, if he is in the right situation, he can be an impact defender.




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Yeah, in alot of ways MCW and Noel are comparable players. I just don't see the potential moving forward for Noel unless he drastically changes the way he plays.

Going into last season I was reading reports on him taking 500 practice shots a day and lifting a ton of weights. I really thought we'd see that translate but it didn't. It sort of makes me question the veracity of the report to begin with.

Especially considering what we saw happen with Okafor inregards to his body this offseason and his jumpshooting from college to the pros. Why has it been so hard for Noel? It's been three years now and he's basically the same guy he was when he entered the league.

It sort of makes you wonder if he is putting the work in the offseason.

[tk76]

Noel weighed 216 four years ago in high school. So maybe he has put on a net of 12 pounds in 4 years. That is not very promising.

Some guys like Camby never bulk up. Does anyone remember when Tyson Chandler bulked up... Because I'm wondering how much longer we can reasonably hold out hope that Nerlens grows into a legit center in terms of size and strength.