Noel's Trade Value is at its Highest Now

[sixerswillrule]

If Embiid is an All-NBA player, you are not going to restrict him to 30 mpg. Shaq averaged 38 mpg in his prime. Dwight 36-38 mpg. Even Duncan averaged 35+ MPG if you look at his first 12 seasons. They started preserving his minutes when he was over 30 years old.

Maybe things have changed, and you can contend while minute protecting your franchise player. GSW is playing their core guys about 34 mpg... but they have that luxury given their record. I just don't see Embiid averaging less than 34 MPG if he is healthy and the Sixers are contenders.

That leaves 14 minutes for Noel. That means the Majority of Noel's minutes will be at PF... and you are assuming that Simmons gets zero minutes at PF on defense.

I could see Embiid getting up to 34 mpg in his prime if he stays healthy, but I really don't see him going above that especially in today's league.

It would be about a 50/50 split for Noel in this case. Also I wouldn't assume Simmons gets zero minutes at PF on defense. He could even get 100% of his minutes there. If him at PF is more effective, then Saric will have to go or take a limited role as a backup.

[tk76]

So that means all 48 minutes of the C minutes are Embiid/Noel. 15 minutes at PF are Noel.

So that leaves 33 minutes defending PF for Saric + Simmons. If you see those guys getting a total of 65 minutes a game... now you have committed to 32 minutes defending SF with either Saric or Simmons.

There is a trickle down effect when you give your back-up C a bunch of PF minutes.

[sixerswillrule]

I don't see it as an issue.

Either Saric turns out to be really good and Simmons/Saric as the forwards works great - no problem. Or Saric doesn't turn out to be that good, Simmons is better as a PF, and we trade Saric - no problem.

[tk76]

Times are changing. Thankfully this organization seems focused on the long-term instead of the short-term. That means restrict Embiid to 30-32 mpg in the regular season. Run a legit 9 man rotation. Only play him more than that in the playoffs.

That would be the smart thing to do long-term.

I keep hearing this... but what first or second or third team All-NBA players average that kind of minutes?

I quickly reviewed last year's list, and the lowest minutes I found was:

LMA 30.6 min... up to 32.4 min this year
Drummond 33 min
Kawhi 33 min
CP3 33 min
Klay 33 min

So of the top 15 players, one got <31 min, 4 got <34 min and the other 10 got 34+ min.
Sure it could happen- and having Noel makes it possible. I'm just not sure I see a team that is fighting for a playoff seed going the route unless they are a runaway top 2 seed like SAS or GSW.

Guys like Shaq used to play 38-40 min a night. Those days are over. But there is a big difference between dropping to 34-53 min and dropping to 30 minutes in terms of winning games.

[tk76]

I don't see it as an issue.

Either Saric turns out to be really good and Simmons/Saric as the forwards works great - no problem. Or Saric doesn't turn out to be that good, Simmons is better as a PF, and we trade Saric - no problem.

In order to justify a near-max salary for Noel you are making these players potentially play at least half of their minutes outside their best defensive position:

Noel (min defending PF)
Simmons (min defending SF)
Saric (Min def SF)
Covington (min defending SG or PG)

I agree that in theory it could work. But I'm not nearly as quick to dismiss this as a non-issue or willing to jettison Saric on a rookie deal so that they can free up PF minutes for Noel on a near-max deal. Not when the other option is to continue with Saric on a bargain salary and utilize the near-max dollars that would go to Noel on a position of need like SG.

[Sixerscan]

None of those other guys you listed missed two years with foot injuries.

We don't need to "justify" Noel's contract as much so long as half the team is on rookie deals. If Saric and Simmons are you power forwards for the next 3 years and we draft two starters in the next draft there's enough excess cap space to pay a backup center decent money for the next 3-4 years. In fact it's unclear where you are spending the $80+ million in cap room otherwise.

3 years from now:

C: Embiid year 2 max contract
PF: Simmons year 4of rookie deal
SF: ?
SG: Lakers 2017 pick onyear 3 of rookie deal
PG: Sixers 2017 pick on year 3 of rookie deal

Unless you plan on paying the small forward like $50 million (which you can't?) you will have money to spend on the bench.

[tk76]

None of those other guys you listed missed two years with foot injuries.

We don't need to "justify" Noel's contract as much so long as half the team is on rookie deals. If Saric and Simmons are you power forwards for the next 3 years and we draft two starters in the next draft there's enough excess cap space to pay a backup center decent money for the next 3-4 years.

By justify, I mean you are going to have to play Noel more than 25 min a game. He won't be happy playing 14-16 minutes exclusively as back-up plus 4-6 minutes alongside Embiid as PF. High profile young players are not happy with 20-22 min a game.

It really comes down to Simmons. On offense, his role will be more of a PG or point forward. But defensively they need to decide where is his maximized. If they are happy with him getting a lot of minutes guarding SF's, then everything will work. But if the team decides that Simmons is best when guarding PF's 30+ min a night, then you either have to get rid of Saric or not resign Noel. there are just not enough minutes defensively at PF + C.

[Sixerscan]

None of those other guys you listed missed two years with foot injuries.

We don't need to "justify" Noel's contract as much so long as half the team is on rookie deals. If Saric and Simmons are you power forwards for the next 3 years and we draft two starters in the next draft there's enough excess cap space to pay a backup center decent money for the next 3-4 years.

By justify, I mean you are going to have to play Noel more than 25 min a game. He won't be happy playing 14-16 minutes exclusively as back-up plus 4-6 minutes alongside Embiid as PF. High profile young players are not happy with 20-22 min a game.

It really comes down to Simmons. On offense, his role will be more of a PG or point forward. But defensively they need to decide where is his maximized. If they are happy with him getting a lot of minutes guarding SF's, then everything will work. But if the team decides that Simmons is best when guarding PF's 30+ min a night, then you either have to get rid of Saric or not resign Noel. there are just not enough minutes defensively at PF + C.

I agree that Nerlens has to accept that role. But if this is just about money I think it will work at least until Simmons is off his rookie deal.

Dario has not looked in over his head play 3 as long as one of Nerlens or Joel have been out there and he wasn't going against an elite athlete (even did ok against Wiggins the second time around)

[sixerswillrule]

I don't see it as an issue.

Either Saric turns out to be really good and Simmons/Saric as the forwards works great - no problem. Or Saric doesn't turn out to be that good, Simmons is better as a PF, and we trade Saric - no problem.

In order to justify a near-max salary for Noel you are making these players potentially play at least half of their minutes outside their best position:

Noel (min defending PF)
Simmons (min defending SF)
Saric (Min def SF)
Covington (min defending SG or PG)

I agree that in theory it could work. But I'm not nearly as quick to dismiss this as a non-issue or willing to jettison Saric on a rookie deal so that they can free up PF minutes for Noel on a near-max deal.

Saric will never have to defend SFs and Covington won't defend PGs or SGs unless we ask him to. Simmons splitting time between SF and PF early in his career is fine as we see where is best for him. This is how things would look next season:

Covington (30) / Simmons (18)
Simmons (14)/ Saric (24) / Noel (12)
Embiid (30) / Noel (18)

If in July 2018 we're underwhelmed with a 24 year old Saric, I don't see why anyone would have a problem with trading him for a better fit, possibly someone else on a rookie deal.

Also I'm thinking that we re-sign Noel to somewhere in the 18-20 mil range. If it's near his max of 25-26 mil per year, then that makes things more difficult.

[tk76]

3 years from now:

C: Embiid year 2 max contract
PF: Simmons year 4of rookie deal
SF: ?
SG: Lakers 2017 pick onyear 3 of rookie deal
PG: Sixers 2017 pick on year 3 of rookie deal

Embiid 26M
Noel 23M (say his deal starts year 1 at 21M)
Simmons 8M or 12M (not sure if the 45% increase in rookie deals is retroactive)
2 2017 lottery picks: combined 15M (again, increased rookie deals)
Saric 5M or 7.5M
2018 pick (3-5M assuming mid 1st)
2019 pick (2-4M assuming later pick)
2019 Sac#1 (3-5M)
-------------------------------------------
So a total of 88M for 9 players assuming the lower projections.
The 2019 cap is projected for 109M.
That leaves 21M to fill out the remaining 7 roster spots. Even if they are all minimun guys (2M each by then) you are talking 14M... for a total of 102M.

So like I said, you are under the cap. But you are trying to contend with Embiid, Simmons, Noel, Saric, 5 draft picks and 6 minimum guys. Where i would think a GM would want more cap flexibility to add the right role players or be in the market for a star. By signing Noel to a near max deal, you are basically saying you are out of that market.

[LloydFree]

None of those other guys you listed missed two years with foot injuries.

We don't need to "justify" Noel's contract as much so long as half the team is on rookie deals. If Saric and Simmons are you power forwards for the next 3 years and we draft two starters in the next draft there's enough excess cap space to pay a backup center decent money for the next 3-4 years. In fact it's unclear where you are spending the $80+ million in cap room otherwise.

3 years from now:

C: Embiid year 2 max contract
PF: Simmons year 4of rookie deal
SF: ?
SG: Lakers 2017 pick onyear 3 of rookie deal
PG: Sixers 2017 pick on year 3 of rookie deal

Unless you plan on paying the small forward like $50 million (which you can't?) you will have money to spend on the bench.

1. Jo Embiid: 30 million
2. Nerl. Noel: 20 million
3. Covington: 15 million
4. J Bayless: 9 million
5. BSimmons: 6 million
6. # 3 pick '17: 6 million
7. #7 pick '17: 4 million

That's 90 million of the 110 million dollar cap. That leaves 20 million for Saric and the rest of the bench. That's the worse case scenario, ONLY IF they decide to keep both Covington and Noel.

[tk76]

I'm a bit confused by the by CBA and rookie deals. I read the salary cap exceptions for rookie deals have increased by 145%. But does that mean the actual rookie salaries are going up? Larry Coons site suggests they are basically staying the same, but with the normal slow increase year on year.

[tk76]

Covington (30) / Simmons (18)
Simmons (14)/ Saric (24) / Noel (12)
Embiid (30) / Noel (18)

Yep, if Simmons works well guarding SF's for most of his minutes then resigning Noel will work. If it looks like Simmons should be guarding PF for the bulk of him minutes, then it does not work. Simmons can't take the floor soon enough, as the team needs to figure this out.

[Sixerscan]

3 years from now:

C: Embiid year 2 max contract
PF: Simmons year 4of rookie deal
SF: ?
SG: Lakers 2017 pick onyear 3 of rookie deal
PG: Sixers 2017 pick on year 3 of rookie deal

Embiid 26M
Noel 23M (say his deal starts year 1 at 21M)
Simmons 8M or 12M (not sure if the 45% increase in rookie deals is retroactive)
2 2017 lottery picks: combined 15M (again, increased rookie deals)
Saric 5M or 7.5M
2018 pick (3-5M assuming mid 1st)
2019 pick (2-4M assuming later pick)
2019 Sac#1 (3-5M)
-------------------------------------------
So a total of 88M for 9 players assuming the lower projections.
The 2019 cap is projected for 109M.
That leaves 21M to fill out the remaining 7 roster spots. Even if they are all minimun guys (2M each by then) you are talking 14M... for a total of 102M.

So like I said, you are under the cap. But you are trying to contend with Embiid, Simmons, Noel, Saric, 5 draft picks and 6 minimum guys. Where i would think a GM would want more cap flexibility to add the right role players or be in the market for a star. By signing Noel to a near max deal, you are basically saying you are out of that market.

"5 draft picks" two of which are going to be former top 10 picks in their 3rd seasons.

9 guys, looks like a rotation to me, plus the 7 million you have left over. Those second round picks will come in handy. Plus luwawu and furk will still be on rookie deals and theorhetically useful. Furk will run into the rookie deal increase, haven't heard anything about it applying retroactively though.

Embiid will only be making that if he's a rose rule guy (which he might be #nbavote)

It's tighter than I thought, but that's also year 3 of Noel's theorhetical deal. You have several summers before then when there's more room to make moves, and plenty of assets to do so. Or you can even trade Noel in that time.

Also, not having oodles of cap space is something good teams have to deal with. Can't have a bare bones roster forever. They don't give out trophies for the cleanest cap sheet.

[sixerswillrule]

Covington (30) / Simmons (18)
Simmons (14)/ Saric (24) / Noel (12)
Embiid (30) / Noel (18)

Yep, if Simmons works well guarding SF's for most of his minutes then resigning Noel will work. If it looks like Simmons should be guarding PF for the bulk of him minutes, then it does not work. Simmons can't take the floor soon enough, as the team needs to figure this out.

We could also still keep Saric and have Simmons guard PF for the bulk of his minutes if we give Saric the minutes of a standard backup PF rather than that of a super-sub.

Covington (28) / Simmons (10)
Simmons (22)/ Saric (16) / Noel (10)
Embiid (30) / Noel (18)

[reignfire]

Playing Embiid and Simmons only 30/32 mpg is a really bad idea. The only teams that can do that are teams that are 10-12 deep.'

Sixers will be top heavy if everything works out. Embiid/Simmons will shoulder most of the load.

[Arsenal]

Playing Embiid and Simmons only 30/32 mpg is a really bad idea. The only teams that can do that are teams that are 10-12 deep.'

Sixers will be top heavy if everything works out. Embiid/Simmons will shoulder most of the load.

We will have plenty of depth. The smart move is to play a 9-10 man rotation in the regular season so guys don't get burnt out. Also give guys games off from time to time (i.e. on selected back to backs).

Then shorten the rotation to 8 guys when it's playoff crunch time.

[Arsenal]

You guys doing the calculations should not just be using the projected cap. You should be using the projected luxury tax line, which will be $20-30M higher than the cap amount. Top contending teams don't just spend to the cap, they spend to the tax, and sometimes beyond.

Therefore there is PLENTY of money to resign Noel AND do whatever else we want to do. Thanks Sam!

[tk76]

Therefore there is PLENTY of money to resign Noel AND do whatever else we want to do. Thanks Sam!

Sure. But the cap defines where you can off FA's contracts. It also affects your ability to make impact trades. I'm very pro-Nerlens in general. But you can't ignore the impact that resigning him to a near max contract will have on the types of players they can add to the team in the next few years. Keeping Nerlens does not completely hamstring what they can do, but it will limit their flexibility as teams well under the cap have an advantage over those who are close to or above the cap.

[sixerswillrule]

Playing Embiid and Simmons only 30/32 mpg is a really bad idea. The only teams that can do that are teams that are 10-12 deep.'

Sixers will be top heavy if everything works out. Embiid/Simmons will shoulder most of the load.

Well we do have that type of frontcourt depth.

But anyway that was my outline for next season when we're still working up Embiid, or post all-star break if we trade Okafor. Embiid will probably get 32-34 and Simmons around 36 in their primes when we're competing.