Moreyball: Finding the Undervalued Stock?

[BullyKing]

Rushing to get star players before Ben’s extension kicked in made sense, even if the execution didn’t.

There’s no such need for rush now. Ideally they would get a good guard but there’s little reason to force it now if there’s not a good deal available.

Morey has managed to get Harden and then Paul by accumulating assets over several years and then pouncing when he saw an opportunity. If you remember, before he acquired Harden, he tried for several years to trade for Dwight. When that didn’t work out, he didn’t just cash in his chips for the next best guy available. He waited a bit, kept accumulating assets, and then pounced when Harden came available. And then eventually got Dwight, funny enough.

If only there was a snappy 3 word phrase to describe what people should think to themselves while being patient. Show ya luv? No that’s not it...

The huge difference between that situation and ours is that he didn't have a star in that interim period. We have two. Just two completely different phases of the success cycle. He accumulated assets then because that's the correct play when you don't have championship equity.

I'm pretty confident Morey is going to be all in rather quickly. The guy hasn't made a 1st round pick since 2015. He's said in countless interviews that once you have your stars and any championship equity, you have to go for it. I'm not saying that he's going to force a bad trade for the sake of it, but I don't expect him to be sitting and accumulating assets. There will be good trades available and I expect him to use our picks in them - if not for CP3 (less likely after today's news) or Oladipo, then for lesser guys like Covington, Hield, Dinwiddie, Redick, etc.

Other than trading Richardson for a pick, how is this team even capable of accumulating assets? We have no reason to trade cheap young rotation players in Shake and Thybulle. And then there's Embiid and Simmons. Everyone else either has no value or negative value. I think when we talk about not being overly aggressive this year its not accumulating assets but letting our negative assets hopefully become less negative.

[TTP]

Rushing to get star players before Ben’s extension kicked in made sense, even if the execution didn’t.

There’s no such need for rush now. Ideally they would get a good guard but there’s little reason to force it now if there’s not a good deal available.

Morey has managed to get Harden and then Paul by accumulating assets over several years and then pouncing when he saw an opportunity. If you remember, before he acquired Harden, he tried for several years to trade for Dwight. When that didn’t work out, he didn’t just cash in his chips for the next best guy available. He waited a bit, kept accumulating assets, and then pounced when Harden came available. And then eventually got Dwight, funny enough.

If only there was a snappy 3 word phrase to describe what people should think to themselves while being patient. Show ya luv? No that’s not it...

The huge difference between that situation and ours is that he didn't have a star in that interim period. We have two. Just two completely different phases of the success cycle. He accumulated assets then because that's the correct play when you don't have championship equity.

I'm pretty confident Morey is going to be all in rather quickly. The guy hasn't made a 1st round pick since 2015. He's said in countless interviews that once you have your stars and any championship equity, you have to go for it. I'm not saying that he's going to force a bad trade for the sake of it, but I don't expect him to be sitting and accumulating assets. There will be good trades available and I expect him to use our picks in them - if not for CP3 (less likely after today's news) or Oladipo, then for lesser guys like Covington, Hield, Dinwiddie, Redick, etc.

Other than trading Richardson for a pick, how is this team even capable of accumulating assets? We have no reason to trade cheap young rotation players in Shake and Thybulle. And then there's Embiid and Simmons. Everyone else either has no value or negative value. I think when we talk about not being overly aggressive this year its not accumulating assets but letting our negative assets hopefully become less negative.

Sure, but Horford is likely currently depressing the value of Embiid, Simmons, and pretty much everyone else in the lineups they share. Our current assets would likely be less negative just by moving him in a deal for Hield or whoever. The fact of the matter is that you're going to be burning resources whether you trade Horford or not. If you move Horford, you're likely costing yourself picks or future assets. If you don't move him, you're costing yourself immediate team performance and possible future player value.

[Sixerscan]

Rushing to get star players before Ben’s extension kicked in made sense, even if the execution didn’t.

There’s no such need for rush now. Ideally they would get a good guard but there’s little reason to force it now if there’s not a good deal available.

Morey has managed to get Harden and then Paul by accumulating assets over several years and then pouncing when he saw an opportunity. If you remember, before he acquired Harden, he tried for several years to trade for Dwight. When that didn’t work out, he didn’t just cash in his chips for the next best guy available. He waited a bit, kept accumulating assets, and then pounced when Harden came available. And then eventually got Dwight, funny enough.

If only there was a snappy 3 word phrase to describe what people should think to themselves while being patient. Show ya luv? No that’s not it...

The huge difference between that situation and ours is that he didn't have a star in that interim period. We have two. Just two completely different phases of the success cycle. He accumulated assets then because that's the correct play when you don't have championship equity.

I'm pretty confident Morey is going to be all in rather quickly. The guy hasn't made a 1st round pick since 2015. He's said in countless interviews that once you have your stars and any championship equity, you have to go for it. I'm not saying that he's going to force a bad trade for the sake of it, but I don't expect him to be sitting and accumulating assets. There will be good trades available and I expect him to use our picks in them - if not for CP3 (less likely after today's news) or Oladipo, then for lesser guys like Covington, Hield, Dinwiddie, Redick, etc.

Other than trading Richardson for a pick, how is this team even capable of accumulating assets? We have no reason to trade cheap young rotation players in Shake and Thybulle. And then there's Embiid and Simmons. Everyone else either has no value or negative value. I think when we talk about not being overly aggressive this year its not accumulating assets but letting our negative assets hopefully become less negative.

Shake and Thybulle can improve and become much more valuable.

Morey can draft good players and/or sign UDFAs, to the point that there’s actual cheap alternatives to Shake or Thybulle to the point you can trade them. Or he can make smaller trades like a Zhaire or a first for an underutilized role player that blossoms in a different role. Or trade picks for future picks with upside. There’s options.

Look at what he traded for Paul, it’s not like he traded a bunch of top 10 picks for him.

As far as TTPs point regarding Horford lowering Embiid or Simmons’ value, first of all I don’t think that true (NBA teams have plenty of data on them being good, and you can always just roll his minutes back so he’s not playing with both, Simmons and Horford minutes were very solid this year) and regardless unless we’re trading either of them I’m not sure why that matters.

[youngcrev]

I guess the condensed schedule will increase the amount back-to-backs, so load management is also a factor with keeping Horford.

That said, if he's back, it's likely because the cost to move him was too high. And then Doc has a to have the talk with him about his role. I don't buy the "he didn't even have a center Houston" argument in terms of Morey wanting to trade Embiid, but I can't image he's happy about paying that much for a backup center (because... who would?)

[sixers hoops]

The huge difference between that situation and ours is that he didn't have a star in that interim period. We have two. Just two completely different phases of the success cycle. He accumulated assets then because that's the correct play when you don't have championship equity.

I'm pretty confident Morey is going to be all in rather quickly. The guy hasn't made a 1st round pick since 2015. He's said in countless interviews that once you have your stars and any championship equity, you have to go for it. I'm not saying that he's going to force a bad trade for the sake of it, but I don't expect him to be sitting and accumulating assets. There will be good trades available and I expect him to use our picks in them - if not for CP3 (less likely after today's news) or Oladipo, then for lesser guys like Covington, Hield, Dinwiddie, Redick, etc.

Other than trading Richardson for a pick, how is this team even capable of accumulating assets? We have no reason to trade cheap young rotation players in Shake and Thybulle. And then there's Embiid and Simmons. Everyone else either has no value or negative value. I think when we talk about not being overly aggressive this year its not accumulating assets but letting our negative assets hopefully become less negative.

Shake and Thybulle can improve and become much more valuable.

Morey can draft good players and/or sign UDFAs, to the point that there’s actual cheap alternatives to Shake or Thybulle to the point you can trade them. Or he can make smaller trades like a Zhaire or a first for an underutilized role player that blossoms in a different role. Or trade picks for future picks with upside. There’s options.

Look at what he traded for Paul, it’s not like he traded a bunch of top 10 picks for him.

As far as TTPs point regarding Horford lowering Embiid or Simmons’ value, first of all I don’t think that true (NBA teams have plenty of data on them being good, and you can always just roll his minutes back so he’s not playing with both, Simmons and Horford minutes were very solid this year) and regardless unless we’re trading either of them I’m not sure why that matters.

They have a lot of NBA rotational guys, but they can try to use those who Morey doesn’t value long term, Korkmaz, Zhaire, Scott, etc for some second rounders to start to incrementally build up the asset chest. Then go mining for more Cov, PJ Tucker, Pelle type players that can be rotational guys for cheap. And then build up their value.

[76ciology]

Patty Mills for that Jj Role
59TS%
2.3 3pt made on 38 3pt%
3.32 ORPM in 2019-2020
4 years younger than JJ.

You heard it from me. First

Read on Twitter

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/#mock

[Arsenal]

The huge difference between that situation and ours is that he didn't have a star in that interim period. We have two. Just two completely different phases of the success cycle. He accumulated assets then because that's the correct play when you don't have championship equity.

I'm pretty confident Morey is going to be all in rather quickly. The guy hasn't made a 1st round pick since 2015. He's said in countless interviews that once you have your stars and any championship equity, you have to go for it. I'm not saying that he's going to force a bad trade for the sake of it, but I don't expect him to be sitting and accumulating assets. There will be good trades available and I expect him to use our picks in them - if not for CP3 (less likely after today's news) or Oladipo, then for lesser guys like Covington, Hield, Dinwiddie, Redick, etc.

Other than trading Richardson for a pick, how is this team even capable of accumulating assets? We have no reason to trade cheap young rotation players in Shake and Thybulle. And then there's Embiid and Simmons. Everyone else either has no value or negative value. I think when we talk about not being overly aggressive this year its not accumulating assets but letting our negative assets hopefully become less negative.

Shake and Thybulle can improve and become much more valuable.

Morey can draft good players and/or sign UDFAs, to the point that there’s actual cheap alternatives to Shake or Thybulle to the point you can trade them. Or he can make smaller trades like a Zhaire or a first for an underutilized role player that blossoms in a different role. Or trade picks for future picks with upside. There’s options.

Look at what he traded for Paul, it’s not like he traded a bunch of top 10 picks for him.

As far as TTPs point regarding Horford lowering Embiid or Simmons’ value, first of all I don’t think that true (NBA teams have plenty of data on them being good, and you can always just roll his minutes back so he’s not playing with both, Simmons and Horford minutes were very solid this year) and regardless unless we’re trading either of them I’m not sure why that matters.

The Rockets trade for Chris Paul 3 years ago should be the template for our upcoming trade for James Harden. 32 year old HOF guard who is still a top 10 player, but is disgrunted and wants out.

I acknowledge that Harden now is better than Paul was then, but the difference isn't that much to where we should have to sell the farm.

Rockets trade / Clippers receive:
PG Pat Beverley
SG Lou Williams
SF Sam Dekker
CE Montrezl Harrell
Darrun Hilliard
DeAndre Liggins
Kyle Wiltjer
$661K cash
2018 HOU 1st

Clippers trade / Rockets receive:
PG Chris Paul

We should only have to trade a little more than the Rockets traded for Paul. Which was not much.

[BullyKing]

The huge difference between that situation and ours is that he didn't have a star in that interim period. We have two. Just two completely different phases of the success cycle. He accumulated assets then because that's the correct play when you don't have championship equity.

I'm pretty confident Morey is going to be all in rather quickly. The guy hasn't made a 1st round pick since 2015. He's said in countless interviews that once you have your stars and any championship equity, you have to go for it. I'm not saying that he's going to force a bad trade for the sake of it, but I don't expect him to be sitting and accumulating assets. There will be good trades available and I expect him to use our picks in them - if not for CP3 (less likely after today's news) or Oladipo, then for lesser guys like Covington, Hield, Dinwiddie, Redick, etc.

Other than trading Richardson for a pick, how is this team even capable of accumulating assets? We have no reason to trade cheap young rotation players in Shake and Thybulle. And then there's Embiid and Simmons. Everyone else either has no value or negative value. I think when we talk about not being overly aggressive this year its not accumulating assets but letting our negative assets hopefully become less negative.

Shake and Thybulle can improve and become much more valuable.

Morey can draft good players and/or sign UDFAs, to the point that there’s actual cheap alternatives to Shake or Thybulle to the point you can trade them. Or he can make smaller trades like a Zhaire or a first for an underutilized role player that blossoms in a different role. Or trade picks for future picks with upside. There’s options.

Look at what he traded for Paul, it’s not like he traded a bunch of top 10 picks for him.

As far as TTPs point regarding Horford lowering Embiid or Simmons’ value, first of all I don’t think that true (NBA teams have plenty of data on them being good, and you can always just roll his minutes back so he’s not playing with both, Simmons and Horford minutes were very solid this year) and regardless unless we’re trading either of them I’m not sure why that matters.

I don't think we are disagreeing. Morey should definitely try to improve the team as much as possible, including working the edges like you're saying. My position is only that if it actually would cost two firsts to turn Horford into another bad contract like Rozier then I'd rather hold off on moves like that and see if better options present themselves later since I don't think swapping Horford for Rozier is the difference between realistic and non-realistic championship odds.

[BullyKing]

Other than trading Richardson for a pick, how is this team even capable of accumulating assets? We have no reason to trade cheap young rotation players in Shake and Thybulle. And then there's Embiid and Simmons. Everyone else either has no value or negative value. I think when we talk about not being overly aggressive this year its not accumulating assets but letting our negative assets hopefully become less negative.

Shake and Thybulle can improve and become much more valuable.

Morey can draft good players and/or sign UDFAs, to the point that there’s actual cheap alternatives to Shake or Thybulle to the point you can trade them. Or he can make smaller trades like a Zhaire or a first for an underutilized role player that blossoms in a different role. Or trade picks for future picks with upside. There’s options.

Look at what he traded for Paul, it’s not like he traded a bunch of top 10 picks for him.

As far as TTPs point regarding Horford lowering Embiid or Simmons’ value, first of all I don’t think that true (NBA teams have plenty of data on them being good, and you can always just roll his minutes back so he’s not playing with both, Simmons and Horford minutes were very solid this year) and regardless unless we’re trading either of them I’m not sure why that matters.

The Rockets trade for Chris Paul 3 years ago should be the template for our upcoming trade for James Harden. 32 year old HOF guard who is still a top 10 player, but is disgrunted and wants out.

I acknowledge that Harden now is better than Paul was then, but the difference isn't that much to where we should have to sell the farm.

Rockets trade / Clippers receive:
PG Pat Beverley
SG Lou Williams
SF Sam Dekker
CE Montrezl Harrell
Darrun Hilliard
DeAndre Liggins
Kyle Wiltjer
$661K cash
2018 HOU 1st

Clippers trade / Rockets receive:
PG Chris Paul

We should only have to trade a little more than the Rockets traded for Paul. Which was not much.

The comparison is off. Paul was going to opt-in unless the Clippers would trade him to Houston so it was either LA took this or lost him for nothing. Harden is under contract for two more years.

[BullyKing]

Patty Mills for that Jj Role
59TS%
2.3 3pt made on 38 3pt%
3.32 ORPM in 2019-2020
4 years younger than JJ.

You heard it from me. First

Read on Twitter

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/#mock

This would make a lot more sense if combined with the Derrick White for Zhaire and 2nds rumor. Something like Richardson, Zhaire and some seconds for White and Mills. I'm a hard pass on Richardson straight up for Mills.

[Arsenal]

Shake and Thybulle can improve and become much more valuable.

Morey can draft good players and/or sign UDFAs, to the point that there’s actual cheap alternatives to Shake or Thybulle to the point you can trade them. Or he can make smaller trades like a Zhaire or a first for an underutilized role player that blossoms in a different role. Or trade picks for future picks with upside. There’s options.

Look at what he traded for Paul, it’s not like he traded a bunch of top 10 picks for him.

As far as TTPs point regarding Horford lowering Embiid or Simmons’ value, first of all I don’t think that true (NBA teams have plenty of data on them being good, and you can always just roll his minutes back so he’s not playing with both, Simmons and Horford minutes were very solid this year) and regardless unless we’re trading either of them I’m not sure why that matters.

The Rockets trade for Chris Paul 3 years ago should be the template for our upcoming trade for James Harden. 32 year old HOF guard who is still a top 10 player, but is disgrunted and wants out.

I acknowledge that Harden now is better than Paul was then, but the difference isn't that much to where we should have to sell the farm.

Rockets trade / Clippers receive:
PG Pat Beverley
SG Lou Williams
SF Sam Dekker
CE Montrezl Harrell
Darrun Hilliard
DeAndre Liggins
Kyle Wiltjer
$661K cash
2018 HOU 1st

Clippers trade / Rockets receive:
PG Chris Paul

We should only have to trade a little more than the Rockets traded for Paul. Which was not much.

The comparison is off. Paul was going to opt-in unless the Clippers would trade him to Houston so it was either LA took this or lost him for nothing. Harden is under contract for two more years.

I believe you mean "opt out" but I see your point. Nevertheless there was massive Morey + Paul collusion behind the scenes to engineer the whole thing. Morey can obviously do the same w/Harden, this time by having James tank his value, ask out, and cause problems. Could fit in with the reports that Harden has not answered any calls from the Rockets in two weeks.

[SixthStreet]

Yes, but then the Rockets can just trade him to the highest bidder. There will be bidders since the acquiring team has 2 years of control. Harden isn’t just going to sit out this year. If I’m the Rockets I don’t care what Harden’s “list” of preferred destinations are.

[76ciology]

Patty Mills for that Jj Role
59TS%
2.3 3pt made on 38 3pt%
3.32 ORPM in 2019-2020
4 years younger than JJ.

You heard it from me. First

Read on Twitter

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/#mock

This would make a lot more sense if combined with the Derrick White for Zhaire and 2nds rumor. Something like Richardson, Zhaire and some seconds for White and Mills. I'm a hard pass on Richardson straight up for Mills.

Im not interested in giving up Jrich for Mills. But i wouldnt mind giving up out first this year (if our target guy is selected) for Mills.

Mills just seems so much of a value guy. He’d be great playing with 2-3 stars. He’s not as good as JJ but he can have some nights where he can be as good as JJ.

I also think Ben (lead assts guy for 3s) and biid (DHO master) can take his game to another level

[76ciology]

Another undervalue guy is TLC.

He was drafted to play with Ben. Then he made some noise during the bubble. He can play with either Ben or Harden.