2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft

[ProcessDoctor]

Spoiler:

I just can't overlook Ace's inability to get to the rim.



He's a low feel & low skilled athletic freak. Can't dribble, can't pass and can't create seperation.

He could be an all-time level 3&D prospect but he's being drafted to be Kevin Durant.

I'd almost rather we stayed in the 5-6 range than jumping up to #3 to evade the RCSI minefields.

Damn Edgecombe's finishing percentage is depressing. He has a decent FTA rate, but this is a huge red flag regarding his touch.

I still think this is an awesome draft, but all the guys between like 3-7 or 8 are concerning. It's almost better to be in San Antonio's position than ours (sans the shot at 1 or 2).

[stormi]

It's starting to feel like it would be irresponsible to take anyone from #3-6. Trade down or trade out might be the move.

Just imagine having Kon or Edgecombe as your "big addition" this summer.

The main lesson I re-learn every single year of watching the playoffs / watching us lose along the margins, is the value of 16 game role players.

Will never understand the protesting of rating an Aaron Gordon or a Derrick White higher than a flawed “creator”.

Which is why I look at Derrick White in college and see that he WAS the creator for that CU team while also being an elite defender.

White was a 22 year old grown ass man by the time he started playing D1 with years of college already under his belt, that's also why he tanked in the draft

Nothing about White's statistical profile has anything inferable to these 18-20 year old prospects we'll be drafting.

[ProcessDoctor]

Everything about Fears says he has a pretty good chance to be an All-Star. It just sucks we have M & M and Grimes.

[stormi]

Spoiler:

I just can't overlook Ace's inability to get to the rim.



He's a low feel & low skilled athletic freak. Can't dribble, can't pass and can't create seperation.

He could be an all-time level 3&D prospect but he's being drafted to be Kevin Durant.

I'd almost rather we stayed in the 5-6 range than jumping up to #3 to evade the RCSI minefields.

Damn Edgecombe's finishing percentage is depressing. He has a decent FTA rate, but this is a huge red flag regarding his touch.

I still think this is an awesome draft, but all the guys between like 3-7 or 8 are concerning. It's almost better to be in San Antonio's position than ours (sans the shot at 1 or 2).

Edgecombe's main weakness is that he's super raw on offense for his age but he’s a special athlete, his defense will be a plus and I buy the shooting long term.

If I were scouting and reporting on Ace and VJ side by side, it'd be:

Bailey:
pros: age, rebounding, defense
cons: bad production, awful shot diet, irreparable feel

Edgecombe:
pros: athleticism, shooting (indicators), defensive playmaking, connective passing
cons: age, halfcourt offense, finishing

[stormi]

Off top, my non-Flagg+Harper sixteen game players (at the moment):

Murray-Boyles, Edgecombe, Knueppel, Kalkbrenner, Jase Richardson, Philon, Essengue.

[Negrodamus]

The main lesson I re-learn every single year of watching the playoffs / watching us lose along the margins, is the value of 16 game role players.

Will never understand the protesting of rating an Aaron Gordon or a Derrick White higher than a flawed “creator”.

Which is why I look at Derrick White in college and see that he WAS the creator for that CU team while also being an elite defender.

White was a 22 year old grown ass man by the time he started playing D1 with years of college already under his belt, that's also why he tanked in the draft

Nothing about White's statistical profile has anything inferable to these 18-20 year old prospects we'll be drafting.

To me it does: worth taking a guy (even if he's older) who nails literally every statistical marker that most all stars possessed in college than cross your fingers and hope someone like Tre Johnson or Ace Johnson is an anomaly and figures out how to go to the rim and draw fouls, generate assists and generate steals. Context definitely matters, but when added, it's even worse for guys like Tre and Ace who were given the freedom to do whatever they wanted.

[stormi]

Which is why I look at Derrick White in college and see that he WAS the creator for that CU team while also being an elite defender.

White was a 22 year old grown ass man by the time he started playing D1 with years of college already under his belt, that's also why he tanked in the draft

Nothing about White's statistical profile has anything inferable to these 18-20 year old prospects we'll be drafting.

To me it does: worth taking a guy (even if he's older) who nails literally every statistical marker that most all stars possessed in college than cross your fingers and hope someone like Tre Johnson or Ace Johnson is an anomaly and figures out how to go to the rim and draw fouls, generate assists and generate steals. Context definitely matters, but when added, it's even worse for guys like Tre and Ace who were given the freedom to do whatever they wanted.

I agree with you on the premise of drafting good basketball players irrespective of age, but evaluating for the NBA doesn't often work that way.

Which makes White a mega outlier irrespective of how good he was at CU.

A large share of the very best college players every season aren't real NBA prospects.

[Negrodamus]

White was a 22 year old grown ass man by the time he started playing D1 with years of college already under his belt, that's also why he tanked in the draft

Nothing about White's statistical profile has anything inferable to these 18-20 year old prospects we'll be drafting.

To me it does: worth taking a guy (even if he's older) who nails literally every statistical marker that most all stars possessed in college than cross your fingers and hope someone like Tre Johnson or Ace Johnson is an anomaly and figures out how to go to the rim and draw fouls, generate assists and generate steals. Context definitely matters, but when added, it's even worse for guys like Tre and Ace who were given the freedom to do whatever they wanted.

I agree with you on the premise of drafting good basketball players irrespective of age, but evaluating for the NBA doesn't often work that way.

Which makes White a mega outlier irrespective of how good he was at CU.

A large share of the very best college players every season aren't real NBA prospects.

Yea, I just hold the to an even higher standard. Having a massive BPM, elite stocks, elite FTr, 20+ AST%, etc. Look at the recent all stars who were upperclassmen:

Jalen Brunson: POY, 10 BPM, .313 FTr (lower than I'd like), 26 AST%, 1.7 STL% (way lower than I'd like), 60% 2FG, 40% 3FG, 80% FT.

Fred VanVleet: Multiple 10+ BPM years, career .425 FTr, career 34 AST%, 3.7 STL%, 2FG% is where he struggles but otherwise hits everything. Being 5'11 is where it hurts him.

Norman Powell (snub): 6.2 BPM (low), .362 FTr, 12.8 AST%, 3.2 STL%, 50 2FG%, 32 3FG% (low), 75% FT. Definite surprise he blew up this much.

Jimmy Butler: 9.4 BPM, .628 FTr, 13.2 AST%, 2.4 STL%, 52 2FG%, 35% 3FG, 78% FT.

Draymond Green: 12.1 BPM, .367 FTr, 24.2 AST%, 2.7 STL%, 47% 2FG (low), 39% 3FG, 72% FT.

Dame Lillard: 9.8 BPM, .519 FTr, 27.1 AST%, 2.5 STL%, 51% 2FG, 41% 3FG, 89% FT.

Obviously there are guys who hit a lot of the statistical indicators who don't pan out, but there are indicators of who to trust.

Who are the guys this year?

Yaxel Lendebourg: 11.2 BPM, .443 FTr, 22.8 AST%, 2.9 STL% (5.2 BLK%), 55% 2FG, 36% 3FG, 76% FT
Nique Clifford: 11.1 BPM, .373 FTr, 26.8 AST%, 2.0 STL%, 56% 2FG, 38% 3FG, 78% FT
Walter Clayton: 11.2 BPM, .275 FTr (low, even considering career .309 FTr), 23.2 AST%, 2.1 STL%, 53% 2FG, 39% 3FG, 88% FT

I'm not keeping people in who are abysmal at FT% (Wolf) or who absolutely don't generate steals (Kalkbrenner). I'd need to do a bit of a dive to see who in past drafts simply didn't pan out with these prerequisites. I'm sure there are a few.

[mjkvol]

I just can't overlook Ace's inability to get to the rim.



He's a low feel & low skilled athletic freak. Can't dribble, can't pass and can't create seperation.

He could be an all-time level 3&D prospect but he's being drafted to be Kevin Durant.

I'd almost rather we stayed in the 5-6 range than jumping up to #3 to evade the RCSI minefields.

And how about Tre as well? Another kid seen as a creator, but the few times I saw him he seemed to dribble into, and make a ton of contested perimeter shots more than anything else. He's impressive, but will it translate to the extent of deserving a top 5 pick?

[ProcessDoctor]

I just can't overlook Ace's inability to get to the rim.



He's a low feel & low skilled athletic freak. Can't dribble, can't pass and can't create seperation.

He could be an all-time level 3&D prospect but he's being drafted to be Kevin Durant.

I'd almost rather we stayed in the 5-6 range than jumping up to #3 to evade the RCSI minefields.

And how about Tre as well? Another kid seen as a creator, but the few times I saw him he seemed to dribble into, and make a ton of contested perimeter shots more than anything else. He's impressive, but will it translate to the extent of deserving a top 5 pick?

I'm starting to think that the Ace-Tre debate will result in neither becoming an All-Star. Maybe the discussion should instead be about whose qualities/strengths will keep them in the league longer.

[76ciology]

Is expecting VJ Edgecombe to become more than a role player on offense, a true star guard, feels a lot like expecting Aaron Gordon to become a star wing during his time with the Magic?

[Negrodamus]

Will Riley has the handles at 6’8 (or whatever he’ll measure out to) to suggest he’s worth taking a shot hoping he’ll fix his deficits, but that STL% is laughably low for a first round prospect.

[WuTang_CMB]

Who's your guys top choices at 5?

[Mik317]

Will Riley has the handles at 6’8 (or whatever he’ll measure out to) to suggest he’s worth taking a shot hoping he’ll fix his deficits, but that STL% is laughably low for a first round prospect.

Pretty sure I watched everyone of his good games this year lol

could not miss in any of those ha

[Stanford]

Who's your guys top choices at 5?

I'd just take whoever is him.

[ProcessDoctor]

I did one tankathon spin yesterday and it landed #1. I’m not touching it again.

My actions on tankathon have a direct effect on what happens tonight.

[Stanford]

Among playoff teams, only Orlando and Boston (of course) have their own pick this year. Has to be a record.

[Negrodamus]

Who's your guys top choices at 5?

Queen

[76ciology]

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Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=bJcUtOCSwzTqqyZgysWpbQ[/x]

Around only 6 months older than Derik Queen

[Negrodamus]

[x]

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=bJcUtOCSwzTqqyZgysWpbQ[/x]

Around only 6 months older than Derik Queen

I like Adou, he looks like he'll be a great role player for someone. Could be a smaller Anunoby if he figures out that shot (and stays healthy).