ImageImageImage

Tank Watch 2025

Iverson Armband
Veteran
Posts: 2,978
And1: 2,502
Joined: Nov 26, 2020
 

Re: Tank Watch 2025 

Post#821 » by Iverson Armband » Mon Mar 31, 2025 6:25 pm

Love to see that our base tanking knowledge is still there after all these years. Excellent work guys.
always a jump shot away.
elchengue20
Starter
Posts: 2,230
And1: 1,912
Joined: Aug 17, 2013

Re: Tank Watch 2025 

Post#822 » by elchengue20 » Mon Mar 31, 2025 6:39 pm

Loving our tank work these last few weeks.

Also bringing some good ol memories back
User avatar
Sixersftw
RealGM
Posts: 19,303
And1: 9,632
Joined: Dec 23, 2006
Location: Shoot a 3 you coward
       

Re: Tank Watch 2025 

Post#823 » by Sixersftw » Mon Mar 31, 2025 7:16 pm

Iverson Armband wrote:Love to see that our base tanking knowledge is still there after all these years. Excellent work guys.

Don't know **** about making a conference championship but if you got a question about tanking or navicular bones, we're the ones to call.
They say an analytics man doesn't have a heart, but I ran the numbers and nothing can be further from the truth - Sam Hinkie probably
agiaco
Analyst
Posts: 3,726
And1: 1,161
Joined: Jun 26, 2009

Re: Tank Watch 2025 

Post#824 » by agiaco » Mon Mar 31, 2025 7:56 pm

Tanking feels more gratifying than winning
SixthStreet
Starter
Posts: 2,185
And1: 1,842
Joined: May 31, 2018
       

Re: Tank Watch 2025 

Post#825 » by SixthStreet » Mon Mar 31, 2025 8:36 pm

I haven't felt this alive since 2017
eyeatoma
RealGM
Posts: 29,897
And1: 13,183
Joined: Feb 25, 2005
     

Re: Tank Watch 2025 

Post#826 » by eyeatoma » Mon Mar 31, 2025 9:23 pm

sixers hoops wrote:
eyeatoma wrote:
ExplosionsInDaSky wrote:I finally played the draft simulator thing and I wish I never clicked on it. I played it 20 times...We kept our pick ten out of those 20 attempts and that's with us in the fifth spot.
This is why I'm saying we need to go for the 4th.

Sent from my SM-S938B using Tapatalk


Everybody knows that the 4th gives us better odds than the 5th. Are you receiving a lot of pushback on that idea? They’re holding Grimes out for rest, and haven’t played Maxey in two months. Of course they want to “go for it,” but it is mostly out of our hands. We waited too long to shut things down. We can watch some games with Pels hats on, but there isn’t many other ways to go for it. Pels management likely doesn’t want to win more than us and they won’t be favored in many more games. It’s still possible though.

The only move I see left is pulling Grimes and anybody else playing well in 4th quarters. The league fines teams for not playing healthy players in certain situations, but they can’t challenge a coach on in-game decisions. Raps are trying to lose by limiting starters mins. It’s just that their schedule is so easy, they can’t help it.
Naw just felt like people were content with 5th. But when I ran tankathon it was horrifying how many times we lost the pick or dropped top 6th.

Sent from my SM-S938B using Tapatalk
sixers hoops
Senior Mod - 76ers
Senior Mod - 76ers
Posts: 10,081
And1: 3,529
Joined: Jun 28, 2002

Re: Tank Watch 2025 

Post#827 » by sixers hoops » Mon Mar 31, 2025 9:54 pm

eyeatoma wrote:
sixers hoops wrote:
eyeatoma wrote:This is why I'm saying we need to go for the 4th.

Sent from my SM-S938B using Tapatalk


Everybody knows that the 4th gives us better odds than the 5th. Are you receiving a lot of pushback on that idea? They’re holding Grimes out for rest, and haven’t played Maxey in two months. Of course they want to “go for it,” but it is mostly out of our hands. We waited too long to shut things down. We can watch some games with Pels hats on, but there isn’t many other ways to go for it. Pels management likely doesn’t want to win more than us and they won’t be favored in many more games. It’s still possible though.

The only move I see left is pulling Grimes and anybody else playing well in 4th quarters. The league fines teams for not playing healthy players in certain situations, but they can’t challenge a coach on in-game decisions. Raps are trying to lose by limiting starters mins. It’s just that their schedule is so easy, they can’t help it.
Naw just felt like people were content with 5th. But when I ran tankathon it was horrifying how many times we lost the pick or dropped top 6th.

Sent from my SM-S938B using Tapatalk


I think people want us to lose out and hope for the best. People are just realistic about the chances of the Pels going 2-5 or 3-4 to close the season.

They could be favored in Brooklyn. Maybe OKC doesn’t bring the full roster to finish the season. They have Miami at home. I would be more optimistic of their chances if I wasn’t concerned about their organization taking their foot off the gas. They may view finishing the season strong as more important than a few ping pong balls.
sixers hoops
Senior Mod - 76ers
Senior Mod - 76ers
Posts: 10,081
And1: 3,529
Joined: Jun 28, 2002

Re: Tank Watch 2025 

Post#828 » by sixers hoops » Mon Mar 31, 2025 9:55 pm

Iverson Armband wrote:Love to see that our base tanking knowledge is still there after all these years. Excellent work guys.


A little rusty, but our talent is clear.
sixers hoops
Senior Mod - 76ers
Senior Mod - 76ers
Posts: 10,081
And1: 3,529
Joined: Jun 28, 2002

Re: Tank Watch 2025 

Post#829 » by sixers hoops » Mon Mar 31, 2025 10:26 pm

MVP1992 wrote:
Sixersftw wrote:
Slacktard wrote:
Split odds is how it works. So say two teams tied for 5th and 5th place was 100 chances, 6th was 90 chances. Each team would get 95 chances.

The coinflip was the old NFL rule right? For some reason I had a coinflip in my head too.



Oki doki. I partially misinterpreted this excerpt from the bottom of Tankathon website.

"10
Tied lottery teams split their ping pong balls evenly, and any odd remainder and the better draft order position are given to the random drawing winner"



Except, when not in the lottery. The 'coin flip' tie breaker does determine draft position.
https://www.nba.com/news/ties-broken-for-order-of-selection-in-2024-nba-draft-presented-by-state-farm

2024
"The Philadelphia 76ers (47-35) won a tiebreaker with the Indiana Pacers, the Los Angeles Lakers, and the Orlando Magic. Second, third, and fourth place in the tiebreaker drawings went to the Los Angeles Lakers, Orlando, and Indiana, respectively."


I think where the coin flip is so important is that it declares a team in the 4th slot. While winning a coin flip would only give you one more ping pong ball in the odds, it could award you the 4th worst team odds in the event you don’t win the lottery.

Subsequently, if my math is correct, the team that wins the coin flip has a much greater chance at getting the 5th or 6th pick.

Odds of 4th worst team keeping a top 6 protected pick are ~80%

Odds of a team tying for 4th worst team winning a coin flip keeping a top 6 protected pick are ~78%

Odds of a team tying for 4th worst team losing a coin flip keeping a top 6 protected pick are ~66%

Odds of 5th worst team keeping a top 6 protected pick are ~64%
HotelVitale
RealGM
Posts: 16,872
And1: 12,005
Joined: Sep 14, 2007
Location: West Philly, PA

Re: Tank Watch 2025 

Post#830 » by HotelVitale » Mon Mar 31, 2025 11:04 pm

eyeatoma wrote:
sixers hoops wrote:
eyeatoma wrote:This is why I'm saying we need to go for the 4th.

Sent from my SM-S938B using Tapatalk


Everybody knows that the 4th gives us better odds than the 5th. Are you receiving a lot of pushback on that idea? They’re holding Grimes out for rest, and haven’t played Maxey in two months. Of course they want to “go for it,” but it is mostly out of our hands. We waited too long to shut things down. We can watch some games with Pels hats on, but there isn’t many other ways to go for it. Pels management likely doesn’t want to win more than us and they won’t be favored in many more games. It’s still possible though.

The only move I see left is pulling Grimes and anybody else playing well in 4th quarters. The league fines teams for not playing healthy players in certain situations, but they can’t challenge a coach on in-game decisions. Raps are trying to lose by limiting starters mins. It’s just that their schedule is so easy, they can’t help it.
Naw just felt like people were content with 5th. But when I ran tankathon it was horrifying how many times we lost the pick or dropped top 6th.

Sent from my SM-S938B using Tapatalk


Odds are the odds, man, don’t matter how many times you spin the wheel it’s still the same exact chance every time.
User avatar
Arsenal
RealGM
Posts: 17,100
And1: 11,993
Joined: Jun 05, 2002
Location: Arlington, VA
 

Re: Tank Watch 2025 

Post#831 » by Arsenal » Mon Mar 31, 2025 11:35 pm

sixers hoops wrote:
MVP1992 wrote:
Sixersftw wrote:The coinflip was the old NFL rule right? For some reason I had a coinflip in my head too.



Oki doki. I partially misinterpreted this excerpt from the bottom of Tankathon website.

"10
Tied lottery teams split their ping pong balls evenly, and any odd remainder and the better draft order position are given to the random drawing winner"



Except, when not in the lottery. The 'coin flip' tie breaker does determine draft position.
https://www.nba.com/news/ties-broken-for-order-of-selection-in-2024-nba-draft-presented-by-state-farm

2024
"The Philadelphia 76ers (47-35) won a tiebreaker with the Indiana Pacers, the Los Angeles Lakers, and the Orlando Magic. Second, third, and fourth place in the tiebreaker drawings went to the Los Angeles Lakers, Orlando, and Indiana, respectively."


I think where the coin flip is so important is that it declares a team in the 4th slot. While winning a coin flip would only give you one more ping pong ball in the odds, it could award you the 4th worst team odds in the event you don’t win the lottery.

Subsequently, if my math is correct, the team that wins the coin flip has a much greater chance at getting the 5th or 6th pick.

Odds of 4th worst team keeping a top 6 protected pick are ~80%

Odds of a team tying for 4th worst team winning a coin flip keeping a top 6 protected pick are ~78%

Odds of a team tying for 4th worst team losing a coin flip keeping a top 6 protected pick are ~66%

Odds of 5th worst team keeping a top 6 protected pick are ~64%


What is the math you are using to calculate 78% and 66%? I believe both of those should be 72%, with a tiny (0.1%) difference between the winner and loser of the coin flip.
LordCovington33
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,392
And1: 5,229
Joined: Nov 15, 2016
   

Re: Tank Watch 2025 

Post#832 » by LordCovington33 » Mon Mar 31, 2025 11:40 pm

Sixersftw wrote:
Iverson Armband wrote:Love to see that our base tanking knowledge is still there after all these years. Excellent work guys.

Don't know **** about making a conference championship but if you got a question about tanking or navicular bones, we're the ones to call.

When you want to tank
To keep your pick
Who you gonna call?
Tank watchers
User avatar
ProcessDoctor
RealGM
Posts: 11,633
And1: 6,394
Joined: Jul 02, 2006
   

Re: Tank Watch 2025 

Post#833 » by ProcessDoctor » Tue Apr 1, 2025 12:04 am

New Orleans got the memo. Zion and CJ out for the rest of the season.
2025-2026 Philadelphia 76ers:

Maxey/McCain/Lowry
Edgecombe/Grimes/Gordon
George/Oubre/Edwards
Barlow/Watford/Walker
Embiid/Bona/Drummond/Broome
Eyeamok
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,965
And1: 3,836
Joined: Mar 02, 2006
 

Re: Tank Watch 2025 

Post#834 » by Eyeamok » Tue Apr 1, 2025 12:54 am

Sixersftw wrote:
Iverson Armband wrote:Love to see that our base tanking knowledge is still there after all these years. Excellent work guys.

Don't know **** about making a conference championship but if you got a question about tanking or navicular bones, we're the ones to call.


Wow straight to the jugular. :lol:
You want it to be one way....but it's the other way. (Marlo)

My 2025 Draft Order choice.

Cedric Coward
Ace
VJ
HotelVitale
RealGM
Posts: 16,872
And1: 12,005
Joined: Sep 14, 2007
Location: West Philly, PA

Re: Tank Watch 2025 

Post#835 » by HotelVitale » Tue Apr 1, 2025 1:21 am

Nets playing their full healthy lineup today with D Lo and Claxton, and the Mavs are sadly/hilariously trash at shot creation with no Luka or Kyrie, gotta rely on a lot of jumpers.

There is hope.
User avatar
Embiid P
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,037
And1: 2,275
Joined: Nov 07, 2013
     

Re: Tank Watch 2025 

Post#836 » by Embiid P » Tue Apr 1, 2025 1:21 am

ProcessDoctor wrote:New Orleans got the memo. Zion and CJ out for the rest of the season.


Yup, barring an unforeseen win streak by us or one of the teams ahead of us in the tankathon, we are pretty much locked in as either the 5th or 6th worst record.
LordCovington33
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,392
And1: 5,229
Joined: Nov 15, 2016
   

Re: Tank Watch 2025 

Post#837 » by LordCovington33 » Tue Apr 1, 2025 1:37 am

HotelVitale wrote:Nets playing their full healthy lineup today with D Lo and Claxton, and the Mavs are sadly/hilariously trash at shot creation with no Luka or Kyrie, gotta rely on a lot of jumpers.

There is hope.

Watch the Nets go up double digits and then squander the lead to get pipped at the post - just to annoy us once again
LordCovington33
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,392
And1: 5,229
Joined: Nov 15, 2016
   

Re: Tank Watch 2025 

Post#838 » by LordCovington33 » Tue Apr 1, 2025 1:40 am

The Mavericks with 8 unanswered points to end the half
HotelVitale
RealGM
Posts: 16,872
And1: 12,005
Joined: Sep 14, 2007
Location: West Philly, PA

Re: Tank Watch 2025 

Post#839 » by HotelVitale » Tue Apr 1, 2025 2:22 am

LordCovington33 wrote:The Mavericks with 8 unanswered points to end the half


Tied going into the 4th though...

EDIT: then 10 unanswered.

Balls.
M2J
Analyst
Posts: 3,719
And1: 1,922
Joined: Sep 04, 2012

Re: Tank Watch 2025 

Post#840 » by M2J » Tue Apr 1, 2025 2:27 am

Brooklyn is Brooklyning.

As far as records go..... Stop the count!

Return to Philadelphia 76ers