Official #1 pick thread: Simmons or Ingram? Merging topics and a Poll

[LongLiveHinkie]

I prefer Ingram, but if they take Simmons, I will support him. However, if Simmons is the pick and he turns out to not live up to the selection(and to make matters worse, Ingram tears it up in LA) then I pretty much can never trust anything this current brain trust does ever again. Literally, like ever.

Same could be said if we draft Ingram and Simmons tears it up in LA. In fact I'd likely be more upset because we'd have passed on the more hyped prospect for what I'd assume was for fit (even if that wasn't necessarily the case).

Idk, I'll support whatever we do because I like them both as prospects, but I already don't trust the current brain trust so we'll see.

That's true. When you pick #1, for this franchise the first time in 20 years, you gotta get it right.

[PhilasFinest]

I don't get the Ben Simmons love. If I were the Sixers I'd take Kris Dunn and enjoy the next D. Wade vs drafting Simmons and end up booing him out of town.

It's not like LSU doesn't have a basketball reputation. They've had plenty of NBAr's come from there. Simmons doesn't dominate in any fashion of the game. Keep him from driving to the paint, and force him to take shots and his scoring avg will be mediocre at best. His ole defense doesn't help either. He's too timid to be a #1, and if the Sixers are banking on his upside, they'll be waiting a few yrs before they actually see it.

What the Sixers need is some shooters to space the floor. Dunn, Jamal Murray or Buddy Hield would be better fits, and they come to the NBA as proven leaders... well Hield and Dunn does.

Thankfully you aren't a Sixers FO. Taking Dunn, Murray, and Hield at 1 is a damn reach. Also, you draft BPA and forget about this fit nonsense.

Fit should mean absolutely nothing. It hasn't mattered the past 3 years and shouldn't now.

We have 0 roster continuity. Its a blank canvas. We have 3 high level center prospects. They don't fit together at all in an optimal scenario and the most talented one (Embiid) is 1 more foot injury away from never playing again.

Outside of that, we have a combo forward POSSIBLY coming over and a bunch of 2nd round picks who can in all likelihood, kick rocks if they don't fit with our franchise player(s).

[CoreyGallagher]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/jackhollywoodg/status/733516498803687425[/tweet]

[76ciology]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/jackhollywoodg/status/733516498803687425[/tweet]

Yes, unfair to say Simmons won't improve his shooting in 4 years but you also have to consider that Hield is starting with a good base rate is likely a natural shooter.

[Negrodamus]

Jonathan Givony, who I respect a good deal, says a big concern about Ben Simmons isn't just that he can't shoot, but it has gotten worse over the last 4 years and he rarely works on it. He said when you see him live at shootaround and practices, the guy never shoots. It's all layup drills. He said it's almost like he's embarrassed or ashamed of his shot, and he just thinks it's worrisome that the guy has regressed since getting into college instead of getting better, when a guy like Ingram on the other hand has been getting better.

This is what I was saying in a more verbose way earlier. He's had a year since HS ended and I don't see any marked improvement in his deficiencies.

Say what you want about Ingram's size, but the guy made an effort to get bigger before the CBB season started which was one of his biggest red flags.

[Ericb5]

Jonathan Givony, who I respect a good deal, says a big concern about Ben Simmons isn't just that he can't shoot, but it has gotten worse over the last 4 years and he rarely works on it. He said when you see him live at shootaround and practices, the guy never shoots. It's all layup drills. He said it's almost like he's embarrassed or ashamed of his shot, and he just thinks it's worrisome that the guy has regressed since getting into college instead of getting better, when a guy like Ingram on the other hand has been getting better.

This is what I was saying in a more verbose way earlier. He's had a year since HS ended and I don't see any marked improvement in his deficiencies.

Say what you want about Ingram's size, but the guy made an effort to get bigger before the CBB season started which was one of his biggest red flags.

He has also had another year confirming his notion that he can do whatever he needed to do to get to the basket, and didn't need to shoot it.

He will need to shoot it in the NBA to be a superstar, but he didn't need to do it in college. His lack of shooting was more a function of his prowess as a driver, than his inability to do it.

He will have to expand his game in the pros, and Brett Brown is qualified to coach him up.

[76ciology]

Jonathan Givony, who I respect a good deal, says a big concern about Ben Simmons isn't just that he can't shoot, but it has gotten worse over the last 4 years and he rarely works on it. He said when you see him live at shootaround and practices, the guy never shoots. It's all layup drills. He said it's almost like he's embarrassed or ashamed of his shot, and he just thinks it's worrisome that the guy has regressed since getting into college instead of getting better, when a guy like Ingram on the other hand has been getting better.

This is what I was saying in a more verbose way earlier. He's had a year since HS ended and I don't see any marked improvement in his deficiencies.

Say what you want about Ingram's size, but the guy made an effort to get bigger before the CBB season started which was one of his biggest red flags.

I agree.

Look at the base rate and the trend. It doesn't look promising. It's a touch issue. It's like teaching D12 how to shoot. He can have the best mechanics but he won't be a good shooter without that touch.

And it's not like we are comparing Simmons and Dunn, that you can just overlook it. There's a safer, high upside and better prospect with Ingram.

[76ciology]

It's not who's the more dominant player in college. It's who's going to be the more dominant player in the NBA.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/ORPM

For instance, if you look at the top 40 ORPM players in the league. All are shooters except for Derozan and Rubio.

You ask what's the sentiment of Rubio and Derozan of the fans of their team. They know they are good players. But also know they are flawed that they are very open to trade them. To some extent wiggins, depending on which of the two faced game of Wiggins they're looking at.

It's unfair, shooting is a premium. The best teams surround their bigs with perimeter players who can shoot. It's non negotiable.

Ingram's shooting can translate. Shooting allows Stauskas, Horford, RoCo and Diaw to drive and draw. Gone are the days of fancy ball handling/moves. It's an era of efficiency and impact. Less fancy, more fundament means more efficient (low TOr).

We are building like the Spurs. We will need to cross several bridges in order to be the Heatles.

Teams around the league is going small ball. They value perimeter players than the bigs. You will most likely be trading Embiid/Jah/Noel at a discount if you trade them for star perimeter players.

You need to play at a fast pace with simmons. He thrives on the open court. They will let him shoot at halfcourt. To be optimal on small ball, you need a perimeter player of GOAT level like Curry, KD and LeBron. I don't want to put the 3 years of the rebuilding process on the line depending on Simmons' jumper. We are close to the finish line.

[eagereyez]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/jackhollywoodg/status/733516498803687425[/tweet]

Yes, unfair to say Simmons won't improve his shooting in 4 years but you also have to consider that Hield is starting with a good base rate is likely a natural shooter.

FT% is a good indicator of success in the NBA as a shooter. All the elite shooters in the NBA were also elite FT shooters in college. Curry, Durant, Lillard, etc. Ingram and Simmons are equal in terms of FT%, with Simmons having substantially more attempts (170 vs 300). Simmons is a better defender, rebounder, facilitator, and a more efficient scorer. The only thing Ingram does better is shoot 3s, and 3P% from college is very volatile. It's difficult to determine if it'll translate to the NBA. Being a good FT shooter gives you more reason to believe that it'll translate, but Ingram is not a good FT shooter. Ingram actually regressed as a FT shooter from H.S. to college.

[Sportfan73]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/DamianArsenis/status/733563945500319746[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/OlgunUluc/status/733054967532027905[/tweet]

[WVU]

I've finally polled for Simmons. We can't pass up this chance. Get it done BC

[theo42]

Finally voted Simmons. Tied between two in the vote...last I looked the general board poll was tied as well. Amazing...

[freshie2]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/jackhollywoodg/status/733516498803687425[/tweet]

Yes, unfair to say Simmons won't improve his shooting in 4 years but you also have to consider that Hield is starting with a good base rate is likely a natural shooter.

FT% is a good indicator of success in the NBA as a shooter. All the elite shooters in the NBA were also elite FT shooters in college. Curry, Durant, Lillard, etc. Ingram and Simmons are equal in terms of FT%, with Simmons having substantially more attempts (170 vs 300). Simmons is a better defender, rebounder, facilitator, and a more efficient scorer. The only thing Ingram does better is shoot 3s, and 3P% from college is very volatile. It's difficult to determine if it'll translate to the NBA. Being a good FT shooter gives you more reason to believe that it'll translate, but Ingram is not a good FT shooter. Ingram actually regressed as a FT shooter from H.S. to college.

Correct. Ingram is a better shooter, but people make it sound like Simmons is shooting free throws underhand. His jumper will improve with reps.

Either player is a huge upgrade, but Simmons is special with the ball in his hand...when the jumper comes, he's unstoppable. Never will be 30 ppt scorer, but could easily be a 25/7/7 type player.

[76ciology]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/jackhollywoodg/status/733516498803687425[/tweet]

Yes, unfair to say Simmons won't improve his shooting in 4 years but you also have to consider that Hield is starting with a good base rate is likely a natural shooter.

FT% is a good indicator of success in the NBA as a shooter. All the elite shooters in the NBA were also elite FT shooters in college. Curry, Durant, Lillard, etc. Ingram and Simmons are equal in terms of FT%, with Simmons having substantially more attempts (170 vs 300). Simmons is a better defender, rebounder, facilitator, and a more efficient scorer. The only thing Ingram does better is shoot 3s, and 3P% from college is very volatile. It's difficult to determine if it'll translate to the NBA. Being a good FT shooter gives you more reason to believe that it'll translate, but Ingram is not a good FT shooter. Ingram actually regressed as a FT shooter from H.S. to college.

Again, this is another ploy to downplay Ingram's shooting by focus illusion. The fact still remains that Ingram is a much better shooter than Ben Simmons. No, I won't solely look at their FT% but I do acknowledge Ingram's deficiency at the FT line.

Between the two, Ingram has a better base rate with regards to his shooting. Ingram is the prospect who I'm willing to bet that is going to be a good shooter between the two.

Again, like KAT and Porzingis pre-draft, you are not looking at finished product. As prospects, you are looking at how good these guys are going to be in X years. The best way is to check their base rate and which of these dominant traits can translate in the NBA.

Ingram is already shooting 41% from 3s. Simmons is still deciding which hand is his shooting hand.

I'm more confident that Ingram can be the better shooter and defender between the two in 5-10 years.

Better passer? Last time I checked, Rondo is outside the top 40 in ORPM. Shooting is a premium on offense.

I also don't agree Simmons is a better defender. Ingram's got freakish length and athleticism and it allows him to get good steals&blocks numbers.

[Sixerscan]

Perimeter players that shot below league average from 3 this year that are still in the top 25 overall ORPM:

Westbrook
LeBron
Reggie Jackson (under league average by .1% )
Butler
Melo
Hayward
Derozen

Not exactly unheard of.

[eagereyez]

Yes, unfair to say Simmons won't improve his shooting in 4 years but you also have to consider that Hield is starting with a good base rate is likely a natural shooter.

FT% is a good indicator of success in the NBA as a shooter. All the elite shooters in the NBA were also elite FT shooters in college. Curry, Durant, Lillard, etc. Ingram and Simmons are equal in terms of FT%, with Simmons having substantially more attempts (170 vs 300). Simmons is a better defender, rebounder, facilitator, and a more efficient scorer. The only thing Ingram does better is shoot 3s, and 3P% from college is very volatile. It's difficult to determine if it'll translate to the NBA. Being a good FT shooter gives you more reason to believe that it'll translate, but Ingram is not a good FT shooter. Ingram actually regressed as a FT shooter from H.S. to college.

Again, this is another ploy to downplay Ingram's shooting by focus illusion. The fact still remains that Ingram is a much better shooter than Ben Simmons. No, I won't solely look at their FT% but I do acknowledge Ingram's deficiency at the FT line.

Between the two, Ingram has a better base rate with regards to his shooting. Ingram is the prospect who I'm willing to bet that is going to be a good shooter between the two.

Again, like KAT and Porzingis pre-draft, you are not looking at finished product. As prospects, you are looking at how good these guys are going to be in X years. The best way is to check their base rate and which of these dominant traits can translate in the NBA.

Ingram is already shooting 41% from 3s. Simmons is still deciding which hand is his shooting hand.

I'm more confident that Ingram can be the better shooter and defender between the two in 5-10 years.

Better passer? Last time I checked, Rondo is outside the top 40 in ORPM. Shooting is a premium on offense.

I also don't agree Simmons is a better defender. Ingram's got freakish length and athleticism and it allows him to get good steals&blocks numbers.

Simmons played on a worse team and finished with a lower DRTG and higher DBPM. He was the better defender in college. Ingram has the tools to become a better defender, but it hasn't happened yet. Durant has a longer wingspan than Lebron. Who is the better defender?

I think it's very telling that Simmons might be shooting FT's with the wrong hand and is still hitting them at the same clip as Ingram. Ingram is not a generational shooter in the form of Durant/Curry/Lillard.

Despite the lack of shooting, Simmons was a more efficient scorer in college. He can't shoot 3s, but he doesn't take them. He attacks the rim and gets to the line at an elite rate. He averaged 9 FTA per game. James Harden averaged 7.7. It is impossible to prevent him from getting into the paint. Combine that with his court vision/rebounding and you have a recipe for LeBron Jr.

[philly262]

My problem with Simmons isn't the skills it's the intangibles. The impact comparison I use for Simmons is going to be James Harden, he's a guy who can get some nights 30-10-10. He's a great player, but because of his "attitude, lack of playing defense, teams lead by him aren't going to be more than an Conf Final participant. That's how I see Simmons career playing out. I think of Brandon Ingram as a more Leonard or Paul George type. He's going to be a guy who's going to go from a 3-d guy early in his career, to a guy who can shoulder the offensive load and be a two way superstar.

My vote is Ingram because of intangibles, smart basketball IQ and tough competitive mindset that makes a different between superstars who put up huge stats, but never put up the real wins to match it.

[freshie2]

Amazing to see a comparison against Simmons inferring that he has a low bball IQ.

[76ciology]

Perimeter players that shot below league average from 3 this year that are still in the top 25 overall ORPM:

Westbrook
LeBron
Reggie Jackson (under league average by .1% )
Butler
Melo
Hayward
Derozen

Not exactly unheard of.

Point taken. But most of those guys are good Mid range shooters/FT shooters right?

LbJ is struggling to shoot this year but he was a much better shooter in prior years that like hayward, I think they are better career 3pt shooters.

Simmons' shooting is more Rondo-ish than Jimmy Butler-ish. I admitedly, also don't know the situation with his shooting hand. If he is shooting with the wrong hand then i would be a lot worried.

[tk76]

Perimeter players that shot below league average from 3 this year that are still in the top 25 overall ORPM:

Westbrook
LeBron
Reggie Jackson (under league average by .1% )
Butler
Melo
Hayward
Derozen

Not exactly unheard of.

So if this is the list of successful NBA players whose game is not predicated on great shooting...

Project Simmons. Will he be as good as or better a shooter from 15 feet and out as some of the guys on this list? Will he be as good of a 3pt shooter as many of the guys on this list?

Most of these guys are respectable 3pt shooters or at least are effective shooters when they a get to "their spot." I see Simmons as a non-shooter like Rubio or Rondo. Simmons is effective scoring from about 8 feet and in, and mostly with his non-shooting hand (his R instead of the L hand he shoots jumpers with.)

No doubt Simmons is freakish enough a talent to be successful despite his shooting concerns And I'm sure he will improve some. But I worry it will make him one of those flawed stars that it is hard to win with and build around. Or maybe he is so freakish that is won't matter.