Tank Watch 2025

[FlyingArrow]

Keon Johnson with two clutch plays for the Nets. Missed a shot down the wire followed by a foul.

[Sixersftw]

This is the true March Madness boys

[HotelVitale]

Keon Johnson with two clutch plays for the Nets. Missed a shot down the wire followed by a foul.

Yo...they up 4 with a minute left. Is this happening?

[FlyingArrow]

Let's go DLO!

[Sixersftw]

**** riveting

[FlyingArrow]

Crazy thought... are the Mavs trying to tank even more than the Nets? Now that Kyrie is out, they're going nowhere in the playoffs no matter what. They are two games ahead of the Suns, who are currently in the lottery. Mavs aren't likely to win the lottery, of course, but if they drop just little bit (2 games in the standings) and get out of the lottery, they also leapfrog all the East conference playoff teams in the draft.

[FlyingArrow]

Nets with a timeout with 1.2 left. They're going to draw up a play to shoot at the Mavs basket.

[Sixersftw]

I've watched more Nets games than I have Sixers' games this year. The game of tanks is for sickos only.

[NYSixersFan]

NETS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Mik317]

Crazy thought... are the Mavs trying to tank even more than the Nets? Now that Kyrie is out, they're going nowhere in the playoffs no matter what. They are two games ahead of the Suns, who are currently in the lottery. Mavs aren't likely to win the lottery, of course, but if they drop just little bit (2 games in the standings) and get out of the lottery, they also leapfrog all the East conference playoff teams in the draft.

The Mavs are most obvious rigged lottery conspiracy team there is lol.

[HotelVitale]

New addition to Muscala Mountain after tonight's performance. We will never forget your contributions to the tank, Keon.

[FlyingArrow]

Crazy thought... are the Mavs trying to tank even more than the Nets? Now that Kyrie is out, they're going nowhere in the playoffs no matter what. They are two games ahead of the Suns, who are currently in the lottery. Mavs aren't likely to win the lottery, of course, but if they drop just little bit (2 games in the standings) and get out of the lottery, they also leapfrog all the East conference playoff teams in the draft.

The Mavs are most obvious rigged lottery conspiracy team there is lol.

I keep forgetting that they don't consider the play-in part of the playoffs. Even though it is. It's a very short an opening round where the regular season record gives you a huge advantage. But it's the playoffs. The teams that lose in the play-in, though, do in fact participate in the lottery.

[LordCovington33]

Nets playing their full healthy lineup today with D Lo and Claxton, and the Mavs are sadly/hilariously trash at shot creation with no Luka or Kyrie, gotta rely on a lot of jumpers.

There is hope.

Watch the Nets go up double digits and then squander the lead to get pipped at the post - just to annoy us once again

Never happier to be wrong.

[FlyingArrow]

This wasn't even supposed to be a winnable game for the Nets. When they're trying to lose and the Mavs trying to win, you'd expect it to go that way.

They have at least 3 more games against teams that won't be trying to win: Toronto, New Orleans, and then Knicks on the last day.

We only have 1 for sure: Washington. It remains to be seen how close the standings are for the last couple of games... so we don't yet know whether or not Atlanta and Chicago will still be playing for seeding.

New Orleans... not much chance of us catching them. They have a schedule like ours. Only one team left on their schedule won't be trying to win: Brooklyn. Maybe OKC on the last day. OKC obviously has their seed wrapped up, but if they keep winning they might be playing for win #70. More likely that they'll be resting, though.

[sixers hoops]

Oki doki. I partially misinterpreted this excerpt from the bottom of Tankathon website.

"10
Tied lottery teams split their ping pong balls evenly, and any odd remainder and the better draft order position are given to the random drawing winner"



Except, when not in the lottery. The 'coin flip' tie breaker does determine draft position.
https://www.nba.com/news/ties-broken-for-order-of-selection-in-2024-nba-draft-presented-by-state-farm

2024
"The Philadelphia 76ers (47-35) won a tiebreaker with the Indiana Pacers, the Los Angeles Lakers, and the Orlando Magic. Second, third, and fourth place in the tiebreaker drawings went to the Los Angeles Lakers, Orlando, and Indiana, respectively."

I think where the coin flip is so important is that it declares a team in the 4th slot. While winning a coin flip would only give you one more ping pong ball in the odds, it could award you the 4th worst team odds in the event you don’t win the lottery.

Subsequently, if my math is correct, the team that wins the coin flip has a much greater chance at getting the 5th or 6th pick.

Odds of 4th worst team keeping a top 6 protected pick are ~80%

Odds of a team tying for 4th worst team winning a coin flip keeping a top 6 protected pick are ~78%

Odds of a team tying for 4th worst team losing a coin flip keeping a top 6 protected pick are ~66%

Odds of 5th worst team keeping a top 6 protected pick are ~64%

What is the math you are using to calculate 78% and 66%? I believe both of those should be 72%, with a tiny (0.1%) difference between the winner and loser of the coin flip.

To clarify these odds are after the draw that occurs a few days after the season.

If I understand the process correctly:
-the two teams tied for 4th would each have a 45.1% chance at a top 4 pick, as those lottery drawings are based on the divided odds.

However, if neither team wins a top 4 pick, picks 5-14 will be seeded in reverse order of standings.

The team who wins the coin flip (or what the NBA calls the draw) would be the 4th seed in the event that they do not win the lottery.

If NO and PHL tie for the 4th seed, the team who wins the draw and is set as 4th in the order of selection would have:
Odds for 5th 7.2%
Odds for 6th 25.7%

The team who loses the draw would be deemed 5th in the order of selection:
Odds for 5th 2.2%
Odds for 6th 19.6%

So if the Sixers would win the draw, they would have a 45.1% chance to move into top 4, a 7.2% chance at the 5 pick, and 25.7% chance of the 6th pick. Therefore a 78% chance of keeping the pick.

If they lose the draw, they have a 45.1% chance of moving into the top 4, 2.2% at pick 5, and 19.6% at pick 6. Therefore, a 66.9% chance at a top 6 pick and keeping the pick.

Just what I gathered from piecing together a few articles.

[sixers hoops]

Crazy thought... are the Mavs trying to tank even more than the Nets? Now that Kyrie is out, they're going nowhere in the playoffs no matter what. They are two games ahead of the Suns, who are currently in the lottery. Mavs aren't likely to win the lottery, of course, but if they drop just little bit (2 games in the standings) and get out of the lottery, they also leapfrog all the East conference playoff teams in the draft.

If they were tanking, Davis wouldn’t have come back with 10 games left. They are trying to string together some good play to put a positive spin on things heading into the summer.

[sixers hoops]

New Orleans got the memo. Zion and CJ out for the rest of the season.

Makes sense for them. If they had an easier schedule, I could see them tripping into two more wins. However, with their schedule and shutting down two players, it seems like they won’t be playing to win.

[sixers hoops]

I assume Grimes will rest when we play Washington again.

[LordCovington33]

I assume Grimes will rest when we play Washington again.

Or, let him play and give a minutes restriction to keep silver moderately happy

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

Woah! Woke up to see Brooklyn snuck out a win.