Tank Watch 2025

[Arsenal]

I think where the coin flip is so important is that it declares a team in the 4th slot. While winning a coin flip would only give you one more ping pong ball in the odds, it could award you the 4th worst team odds in the event you don’t win the lottery.

Subsequently, if my math is correct, the team that wins the coin flip has a much greater chance at getting the 5th or 6th pick.

Odds of 4th worst team keeping a top 6 protected pick are ~80%

Odds of a team tying for 4th worst team winning a coin flip keeping a top 6 protected pick are ~78%

Odds of a team tying for 4th worst team losing a coin flip keeping a top 6 protected pick are ~66%

Odds of 5th worst team keeping a top 6 protected pick are ~64%

What is the math you are using to calculate 78% and 66%? I believe both of those should be 72%, with a tiny (0.1%) difference between the winner and loser of the coin flip.

To clarify these odds are after the draw that occurs a few days after the season.

If I understand the process correctly:
-the two teams tied for 4th would each have a 45.1% chance at a top 4 pick, as those lottery drawings are based on the divided odds.

However, if neither team wins a top 4 pick, picks 5-14 will be seeded in reverse order of standings.

The team who wins the coin flip (or what the NBA calls the draw) would be the 4th seed in the event that they do not win the lottery.

If NO and PHL tie for the 4th seed, the team who wins the draw and is set as 4th in the order of selection would have:
Odds for 5th 7.2%
Odds for 6th 25.7%

The team who loses the draw would be deemed 5th in the order of selection:
Odds for 5th 2.2%
Odds for 6th 19.6%

So if the Sixers would win the draw, they would have a 45.1% chance to move into top 4, a 7.2% chance at the 5 pick, and 25.7% chance of the 6th pick. Therefore a 78% chance of keeping the pick.

If they lose the draw, they have a 45.1% chance of moving into the top 4, 2.2% at pick 5, and 19.6% at pick 6. Therefore, a 66.9% chance at a top 6 pick and keeping the pick.

Just what I gathered from piecing together a few articles.

Interesting, and you may be correct here. Either way it's to our benefit to move the odds for keeping the pick up to 67% (or even better 78% if we get lucky) by finishing tied with NO. So we must lose every game.

[sodmoraes]

We probably solidified ourselves with the 5th worst record today, since the Pelicans wont play their starters anymore and have one game game against the nets. Our position is good but there is still some reasonable chance we lose the pick. Gotta pray for the ping pong balls!

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[sixers hoops]

What is the math you are using to calculate 78% and 66%? I believe both of those should be 72%, with a tiny (0.1%) difference between the winner and loser of the coin flip.

To clarify these odds are after the draw that occurs a few days after the season.

If I understand the process correctly:
-the two teams tied for 4th would each have a 45.1% chance at a top 4 pick, as those lottery drawings are based on the divided odds.

However, if neither team wins a top 4 pick, picks 5-14 will be seeded in reverse order of standings.

The team who wins the coin flip (or what the NBA calls the draw) would be the 4th seed in the event that they do not win the lottery.

If NO and PHL tie for the 4th seed, the team who wins the draw and is set as 4th in the order of selection would have:
Odds for 5th 7.2%
Odds for 6th 25.7%

The team who loses the draw would be deemed 5th in the order of selection:
Odds for 5th 2.2%
Odds for 6th 19.6%

So if the Sixers would win the draw, they would have a 45.1% chance to move into top 4, a 7.2% chance at the 5 pick, and 25.7% chance of the 6th pick. Therefore a 78% chance of keeping the pick.

If they lose the draw, they have a 45.1% chance of moving into the top 4, 2.2% at pick 5, and 19.6% at pick 6. Therefore, a 66.9% chance at a top 6 pick and keeping the pick.

Just what I gathered from piecing together a few articles.

Interesting, and you may be correct here. Either way it's to our benefit to move the odds for keeping the pick up to 67% (or even better 78% if we get lucky) by finishing tied with NO. So we must lose every game.

With Zion and McCollum getting shut down, the probability is low. I assume we will end up in the 5th spot and a 64% chance of keeping the pick. Not terrible but we waited too long to shut it down. Winning 5 of 7 in late January was foolish.

[FireMorey]

Yabu has knee soreness, they should shut him down for the season. And Maxey. What's even the point of playing either at this juncture there's just a handful of games left.

[SixthStreet]

The Sixers need to be vigilant and not do something stupid like beat the Knicks.

[M2J]

Yabu has knee soreness, they should shut him down for the season. And Maxey. What's even the point of playing either at this juncture there's just a handful of games left.

I think he's going to need a minutes restriction with that back

[eyeatoma]

Why is Grimes playing?

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[M2J]

Why is Grimes playing?

Sent from my SM-S938B using Tapatalk

No better way to get maxed out than to drop 40 in the garden

[Redemption76]

Fortunately a little regression to the mean is happening with his shot. Praying that it continues. Lowry is now the Tank Commander.

[ProcessDoctor]

Yabu has knee soreness, they should shut him down for the season. And Maxey. What's even the point of playing either at this juncture there's just a handful of games left.

They would only do it to get the league off their backs.

Silver is the type of commissioner that would screw us out of keeping our pick.

[LordCovington33]

Yabu has knee soreness, they should shut him down for the season. And Maxey. What's even the point of playing either at this juncture there's just a handful of games left.

I think he's going to need a minutes restriction with that back

A 10-minute restriction. And if he exerts himself too much, it should be reduced to 5.

[MVP1992]

.

[Negrodamus]

If the pelicans want to not face a decades long domination in OKC, perhaps they should let us pass them in the draft order.

[stormi]

Adam Silver owes Philadelphia Cooper Flagg and I strongly believe that he'll make it happen.

Ignoring the tragedies of Fultz, Simmons and Joel Embiid and the collapsing stadium plans— the powers that be simply learned from the Zion Williamson debacle. They sent him to purgatory to save a dying market and watching a prize flame into irrelevance. That mistake won't be made again.

There's also the looming reality of Giannis inching closer to forcing his way out of MKE with Houston (and OKC) as asset front runners. There'll be a concerning disparity between East & West star power.

Flagg not only guarantees a top 10 jersey sale in year 1 as the face of the 76ers, but he'd be in prime location to give Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics a real rival which would also reignite parity in this conference.

Brooklyn is another option but knowing that they'll assuredly be horrid once again next season, have a handshake deal with the league ensuring them first dibs at Cam Boozer creating an Atlantic division bloodbath between Tatum, Flagg and Boozer.

I've seen that Flagg likes to wear #32 and is now wearing #2 due to the former being retired at Duke. With both numbers retired here in Philadelphia I'm curious what he'll select here.

Exciting times!

[ProcessDoctor]

I don’t see 2 more wins on the schedule for us. I also don’t see 2 more wins for the pelicans either. I think we’re pretty much guaranteed the 5 seed.

[mjkvol]

This whole tanking thing is surreal, and the discussions of that POS Silver sitting in his NYC office plotting where to 'allow' the next generational player to end up like a chess move to somehow 'save' the league makes it even more so. Not that I don't firmly believe that to be the case, but it does make one think what kind of 'sport' it is we are spending so much time (and for some, money) supporting.

Maybe it was the same with Hinkie, but to me that had a certain 'innocence' to it, as Hinkie was kind of a pioneer to the modern tanking game, as it were. I think the fact that it became so popular here, with a real slogan, t-shirts, and so much fan and media discussion back and forth about it, that made Silver step in and pull the plug. And in the ... er ... process, start the ruination of a franchise.

So now we have all this 'stealth' activity going on in broad daylight, like NO 'suddenly' shutting down Zion and CJ. Guess they saw those same tankathon %'s that you guys are posting here and got smart. I promise that if Maxey is shut down the same way, that weasel will hit us with a fine. To protect the league from nefarious activity, of course.

[elchengue20]

It's not that big of a deal.

NBA has quite the complex system to enforce parity and the league moves 95% of the time around that system.

It's understandable if they have to tweak it once in a while in the shadows when there is crucial moves for the league´s long term health. It's always been like this.

[SixthStreet]

Adam Silver owes Philadelphia Cooper Flagg and I strongly believe that he'll make it happen.

I also strongly believe this. The stadium resolution cemented my faith.

[GiannisAnte34]

Lol why does the league owe the 76ers for tripping over themselves with asset management? There have been so many bad draft picks and trades that it’s astonishing they were still somewhat competitive the past few seasons. I would know as a Bucks fan, the FO for Philly has been just awful.

[Stanford]

it’s astonishing they were still somewhat competitive the past few seasons.

I know! Embiid is incredible. One of the greatest players ever. Better than Giannis.