Tank Watch 2025

[ProcessDoctor]

#5 lotto odds clinched!

[Eyeamok]

Good Job coaching Nurse. From the looks of things he allowed Dowtin to cook and he came crashing back down to earth. Ricky Council can't ever say he never got a chance to show his game. He's just so erratic. I expect a win to end the season.

[Arsenal]

Let’s win the last one! Nothing to lose!!!

[76ciology]

4th pick: 81% keep the pick
5th pick: 64% keep the pick
6th pick: 46% keep the pick

Damn those Pels

[FlyingArrow]

4th pick: 81% keep the pick
5th pick: 64% keep the pick
6th pick: 46% keep the pick

Damn those Pels

Pelicans are shameless tankers. They should be fined.

[FlyingArrow]

Let’s win the last one! Nothing to lose!!!

Bring back the whole starting lineup, including gimpy Embiid, for one last hurrah! Score 200 points! Let us wonder what might have been.

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

Cool...5th spot on lock. Now we just need the odds to play out in our favor.

[SixthStreet]

I'm sure one of the local journalists will come up with it, but I'd like to know how often two or more teams below 5 jump in the lottery in the same year. There's not much data with the new flattened odds, though.

[MVP1992]

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[mjkvol]

I'm sure one of the local journalists will come up with it, but I'd like to know how often two or more teams below 5 jump in the lottery in the same year. There's not much data with the new flattened odds, though.

Spin the Tankathon wheel enough times and you'll see it happen often.

Just spun 1 Raptors, 2 Sixers, 3 Bulls, 4 Heat

Just spun it 10 times. We kept our pick 7 out of 10, had the 1st pick twice and the 2nd and 3rd pick once.

Final spin:

1. Sixers
2. Spurs
3. Jazz
4. Pelicans
5. Bullets
6. Hornets
7. Nets

Would the Spurs pick Harper with that already loaded backcourt or gamble on Bailey? I'd take Harper and look to move Fox for another batch of picks.

[sixers hoops]

I'm sure one of the local journalists will come up with it, but I'd like to know how often two or more teams below 5 jump in the lottery in the same year. There's not much data with the new flattened odds, though.

Teams from outside the top 5 to win the lottery are:

2019
-Pels from 7 to 1
-Grizzlies from 8 to 2
-Lakers from 11 to 3

*Atl with 5th odds picked 8.

2020
-Charlotte from 8 to 3
-Chicago from 7 to 4

*Det with 5th odds picked 7.

2021
-Cavs from 5 to 3
-Raps from 7 to 4

*Cavs with the 5th odds picked 3.

2022
-Sac from 7 to 4

*Ind with the 5th odds picked 6.

2023
-Blazers from 5 to 3

*Port with 5th odds picked 3.

2024
-Hawks from 10 to 1
-Brooklyn from 9 to 3
-Spurs from 5 to 4

*Spurs with 5th odds picked 4.

In 2019, 2020, and 2024, the scenario you specified occurred, but the Spurs also won and moved up in 2024. The Sixers would have kept their pick in 4 of the 6 drafts.

[HotelVitale]

I'm sure one of the local journalists will come up with it, but I'd like to know how often two or more teams below 5 jump in the lottery in the same year. There's not much data with the new flattened odds, though.

Teams from outside the top 5 to win the lottery are:

2019
-Pels from 7 to 1
-Grizzlies from 8 to 2
-Lakers from 11 to 3

*Atl with 5th odds picked 8.

2020
-Charlotte from 8 to 3
-Chicago from 7 to 4

*Det with 5th odds picked 7.

2021
-Cavs from 5 to 3
-Raps from 7 to 4

*Cavs with the 5th odds picked 3.

2022
-Sac from 7 to 4

*Ind with the 5th odds picked 6.

2023
-Blazers from 5 to 3

*Port with 5th odds picked 3.

2024
-Hawks from 10 to 1
-Brooklyn from 9 to 3
-Spurs from 5 to 4

*Spurs with 5th odds picked 4.

In 2019, 2020, and 2024, the scenario you specified occurred, but the Spurs also won and moved up in 2024. The Sixers would have kept their pick in 4 of the 6 drafts.

We can just trust the odds and know that it happens about 1/3 of the time. Doesn’t matter what’s happened in the past, don’t wanna do no Monte Carlo fallacy-ing.

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

So 4 out of the last six years the team 5th odds picked either higher or no lower than 6th. Which is in the 66% range. You live with those odds, but it's cutting it close.
I mean, your team is down by 1 point. Russell Westbrook, Ivica Zubac, Rudy Gobert all shoot around 66% at the line. How do you feel about those odds? I'm not saying the draft lottery parallels with that scenario, but it is essentially what we're hoping for (the odds in our favor). With that said, I'm personally not going to be the least bit shocked if we get shafted and lose the pick. We're far from a lock with this. I ran the draft simulator thing too and went 5 & 5 keep/lose the pick. This is the Sixers. Hopefully we keep the pick and move forward to next season with new false hope. If we miss on the pick, it's going to be a slow painful death.

[Zumramania]

We can just trust the odds and know that it happens about 1/3 of the time. Doesn’t matter what’s happened in the past, don’t wanna do no Monte Carlo fallacy-ing.

The term originates from this crazy event, which I remember from a statistics textbook:
"An example of the gambler's fallacy occurred in a game of roulette at the Monte Carlo Casino on August 18, 1913, when the ball fell in black 26 times in a row. This was an extremely unlikely occurrence: the probability of a sequence of either red or black occurring 26 times in a row is around 1 in 66.6 million, assuming the mechanism is unbiased."
Apparently people lost millions, their houses and other possessions betting everything on red.

[MVP1992]

.

[HotelVitale]

I'm a poker player and couldn't help myself.
I used GROK3 to calculate.


Question: What is the probability of the fifth-worst team landing a top-6 pick five years consecutively (2021–2025), given this has occurred in 2021–2024?


The streak’s rarity aligns with intuition: a 63.9% event is likely in isolation, but five in a row is like flipping heads (~50%) five times (3.125%)—just with a higher base probability.

Probability of Five Consecutive Years
Since NBA Draft Lottery draws are independent (each year’s outcome doesn’t affect the next, as the ping-pong ball combinations reset), the probability of the fifth-worst team getting a top-6 pick in any given year is 0.639 or 63.9%
P=0.639
For this to happen five years in a row:
P(5 in a row) = (0.639)⁵
0.106538×100 ≈ 10.65%


Final Answer
The probability of the team with the fifth-worst record landing a top-6 draft pick five years consecutively (2021–2025) is:

10.65%

Fantastic

I know this may just be f’ing around but there’s really zero use in this calculation as a predictor. We’re not trying to win anything 5 years straight—we’re just trying to win one lotto dip, this year—so the larger span isn’t relevant for any probability calculation.

Also the fact that it’s low is because the probability of of ANY 5-year outcome is really low—what’s happened in the last 4 years is already very unlikely to have happened, but it did because some outcome has to happen; the lotto odds are weird and varied so no matter what happens it’s going to be statistically unlikely. Some more than others but any 5 year outcome is going to be quite unlikely.

Simpler way to put it: what you say is true, but there’s still significantly LESS than 10.65% probability that the #5 team wins a top 6 pick in 4 years but then loses it the 5th year. I won’t calculate it but in any case it’s quite a bit more likely we keep the pick than lose it regardless of any previous history.

[Arsenal]

A lot of wasted time worrying about the odds based on what happened the last several years, which is a LOGICAL FALLACY and TOTALLY IRRELEVANT.

We have a 63.9% chance to keep the pick, and therefore a 36.1% chance to lose the pick, and that's it. The past results mean NOTHING.

[MVP1992]

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[ProcessDoctor]

A lot of wasted time worrying about the odds based on what happened the last several years, which is a LOGICAL FALLACY and TOTALLY IRRELEVANT.

We have a 63.9% chance to keep the pick, and therefore a 36.1% chance to lose the pick, and that's it. The past results mean NOTHING.

Thank you for posting this. So much work to determine past outcome that have no effect on our situation.

[mksp]

yeah, the odds are independent every year, it literally matters not at all what happened last year or previous ten years.

if you flip a coin 10 times and it's heads every time, it's still 50/50 if the next one is heads.