Arsenal wrote: I was pretty low on Dennis Smith for most of the year, but I've changed my mind. Assuming the character concerns are overblown and we're confident he can fit into our system... He's a legit 3 level scorer. He is a good bet to be a good/great shooter. He is good at shooting off the bounce from distance. He has sick athleticism and the potential to be a decent/good defender even though he needs work in that area. He's very good at the P&R. Looks like a Damian Lillard type of player to me.
I've been pretty high on DSJ for most of the year so let me give the measured flipside. He is a legit 3-level scorer and he can hit from all over. But let's start with your assumption on shooting: he's very very much a rhythm shooter--when he's in control of the ball and he's feeling it he's pretty unstoppable, but he also disappears off ball and his shot isn't particularly lethal in spot ups. He's also relatively small with small arms, so he'll have fewer opportunities for spot ups in the NBA. I don't see any reason to think he's a killer shooter--it's more like he makes really cool tough shots sometimes but then isn't that consistent or good overall.
Also not sure why you think he's a good bet on defense: he was a terrible defender this year, and doesn't have phenomenal NBA tools for defense. His athleticism is more explosive stuff--first step, hang time--than amazing lateral quickness, and he doesn't have much defensive IQ. And he'll be a little undersized (about 6'2 with a 6'3 wingspan).
Damian Lillard is a solid reference point and the comp makes a good pt. Lillard has always been efficient in the NBA, posted 56-59% TS on great volume from the get go. If DSJ ends up just a little less efficient (which is very possible since he's not as good of a shooter, since he's smaller, etc) and is in the 53% TS range, that's too low to be a big option on a decent team (unless a guy's also a great defender, passer, etc). That gets to the real problem with DSJ: his skillset is score-first ball-dominant PG, and his mentality is classic me-first bring-it-to-em. If he's not quite good enough to do that with the very best at the NBA-level, then he's basically limited to being your sixth man gunner--and if he's not quite efficient enough to do that, then he's a journeyman scorer. It's hard to imagine him as a role player or a guy that blends with players with divergent skillsets (who will frequently take the ball out of his hands). That's why his mentality matters: I usually don't put much stock in that stuff, but I think DSJ will need humility and an open mind to figure out what he can do at the next level and how he can help a team win, and he's sort of shown the opposite this year. If it's not about him, he seems to get bored, and I can see how he wouldn't fight through adversity unless there's something in it for him. I don't think that should be the last word, and I hate all the moralizing about how kids have to have a certain attitude or whatever, but I think it directly effects his skills and role in the NBA so I would make it a legit actor in my draft dossier on him.
