2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft

[Negrodamus]

... he also does turn up the heat if you keep watching. He just makes shot making look so hard. Everything is a fadeaway with a hand in the face. Kudos for making them, but when you miss, it's a bad miss.

[HotelVitale]

That's a really strong team and I love the balance.

The league has already showcased tonight that we're one of the franchises that are in the favorable side of balance so I'd just keep building organically.

It's no longer the time to be burning draft capital back and forth for upside swings especially with a core as fragile as ours.

LAC unprotected '28 and the '29 swap should be essentially untouchable.

I see it as a move similar to what the Celtics did when they drafted Marcus Smart in 2014, stacking high-end role players and building a strong foundation while waiting for the right star to come along with our 2028 and 2029 picks in play, this is a more measured (but slower) approach lower risk, higher probability of success.

The alternative is we go for boom or bust players like what the Warriors did when they drafted Whiteside and Kuminga.

The fault I see in that line of thinking is that to an extent, the role player types are also boom or bust, just with less upside and less room for error.

Nba fans still vastly underestimate the degree to which we don’t know how players will translate to the pros. Marcus Smart wasn’t taken as a defense-only bulldog coming out of college, and no one would’ve guessed that like Jaylen Brown’s game would look like it does now either. (Taken basically as a defense-y driver who couldn’t shoot.) The Celtics strategy was to take the guys they thought had a chance of making a splash in the pros, nothing more than that.

I could go on all day about this topic but for now I’ll just agree with what you’re saying and push it much further. Many stars or steals were taken as what the media would call role playing prospects (Maxey is a good example, or Booker or Kawhi, Bam, Klay) and many ‘star’ prospects ended up as role players (Bogut, Wiggins, A Gordon, Suggs, Lonzo, and those are just the successful ones). It’s pretty rare that players have predictable translations, and the good players tend to develop a ton in years 2-3 even if they do translate well. It’s all very very open.

[76ciology]

... he also does turn up the heat if you keep watching. He just makes shot making look so hard. Everything is a fadeaway with a hand in the face. Kudos for making them, but when you miss, it's a bad miss.

Morey will use his AI to crunch the numbers. Dont worry, he wont draft Ace Bailey.

He’s not like that one GM, who nearly became the next pope, just pulling up DraftExpress to see who the best player available is at his pick.

[stormi]

It's simple..You take Bailey, VJ, Trey, or Edgecombe.
Bailey has the highest upside. At the worst he's Jabari Smith at best he's Kevin Durant.

At worst he's Marquese Chriss.

Bailey even ending up at current level Jabari Smith would be a homerun outcome. There's a chasm between the perception of Ace Bailey (his aura?) and the performances he was serving up on the court all season.

Bailey isn't even 6'10 like Smith Jr or Porter, he's 6'7.

Jabari had significantly better assist numbers compared to Ace while maintaining a similar turnover rate. Bailey has generationally poor feel for the game and his handle is significantly worse as well.

There's also the fact that Jabari was leagues better as an on ball defender, much more built for the pro-game and a near 1 of 1 shooter for his size.

I tried to go and watch some Ace film after the lotto and it was rough, ignore the odd flashy dunk, that handle and the manner in which he's scoring the basketball looks totally unnatural. He's another one of those 'Next Kawhi?' projects that I currently don't feel comfortable selecting with a top three pick.

[Jailblazers7]

Can anyone explain to me why Rutgers sucked this year? Didn’t watch any college ball this year so seeing two top 5 picks but not even an NCAA tournament appearance is odd.

[Negrodamus]

Ace has phenomenal stats... if you only consider November and January. But the NBA is famously not kind to inconsistency.

[youngcrev]

It's simple..You take Bailey, VJ, Trey, or Edgecombe.
Bailey has the highest upside. At the worst he's Jabari Smith at best he's Kevin Durant.

At worst he's Marquese Chriss.

Bailey even ending up at current level Jabari Smith would be a homerun outcome. There's a chasm between the perception of Ace Bailey (his aura?) and the performances he was serving up on the court all season.

Bailey isn't even 6'10 like Smith Jr or Porter, he's 6'7.

Jabari had significantly better assist numbers compared to Ace while maintaining a similar turnover rate. Bailey has generationally poor feel for the game and his handle is significantly worse as well.

There's also the fact that Jabari was leagues better as an on ball defender, much more built for the pro-game and a near 1 of 1 shooter for his size.

I tried to go and watch some Ace film after the lotto and it was rough, ignore the odd flashy dunk, that handle and the manner in which he's scoring the basketball looks totally unnatural. He's another one of those 'Next Kawhi?' projects that I currently don't feel comfortable selecting with a top three pick.

Who in this draft do you feel comfortable taking there?

[Mik317]

Can anyone explain to me why Rutgers sucked this year? Didn’t watch any college ball this year so seeing two top 5 picks but not even an NCAA tournament appearance is odd.

their coach was really bad and Harper missed some time.

[Negrodamus]

(Incoming propaganda)

Watch on YouTube

;t=10764s

Now compare the shot diet you saw of Ace to that of Queen. First two minutes, he's heading down hill, going to the rim with authority. Queen isn't some purely in the post player, he's a driver. How is Ace so remarkably soft when driving? I couldn't even fathom taking Ace over Queen.

[HotelVitale]

Ngl, between Bailey and Edgecomb im favoring Ace. He may have bigger bust potential, but his best case scenario is a star. I dont think Edgecomb can be a star, hes a safer pick, and can become a pretty good player, but his ofensive game seems to limited.
I dont even think Bailey can be a bust, his worst case is a better Oubre?[ur?

Just curious how you came up with Oubre as a comp. Games seem pretty opposite besides questionable decision-making.

Oubre at Kansas had a lot of the same selling points at Ace....and it took until like 2 years ago for him to embrace being a role player. Ace's shooting is all theoretical rn...just like Oubre's. His probable role is energy wing who can technically hit open shots....just like Oubre.

Ace’s only real strength is being big + able to get off jumpers and hit a decent amount of them. There’s also nothing theoretical about his shot—he took and made a ton of jumpers in college, and he’s been doing that in camps etc since he was like 13. He’s also a weak finisher and driver.

Oubre was viewed mostly an athlete with good wing size, great finisher and transition guy who could also help as a rebounder and defender cuz athleticism. His shot wasn’t seen as awful but it was never seen as a potential elite skill like Ace’s. He was basically just an athletic dude who could do some of everything but was raw at all of it. (also why he was a much lower pick than Ace will be).

Oubre was able to stick in the league because enough of that athleticism and driving game translated into production (and secondary shot creation), and he was just good enough at a few other things to stay on the court. It seems like Ace has a chance to be much more impactful at his main thing—shooting the ball—but also kinda has to be really good at that for him to be a successful pick. And then will also have to get good enough at other things that are some level of question-y now.

In any case I don’t see the use of the comp. Not much similar about their games or their scenarios as prospects. (Though all comps are pretty useless beyond getting you into the ballpark of who a prospect is).

[Mik317]

thats the thing tho....I don't know if Bailey is an elite shooter tbh. Got to do more digging now that we have the pick tho

[stormi]

It's simple..You take Bailey, VJ, Trey, or Edgecombe.
Bailey has the highest upside. At the worst he's Jabari Smith at best he's Kevin Durant.

At worst he's Marquese Chriss.

Bailey even ending up at current level Jabari Smith would be a homerun outcome. There's a chasm between the perception of Ace Bailey (his aura?) and the performances he was serving up on the court all season.

Bailey isn't even 6'10 like Smith Jr or Porter, he's 6'7.

Jabari had significantly better assist numbers compared to Ace while maintaining a similar turnover rate. Bailey has generationally poor feel for the game and his handle is significantly worse as well.

There's also the fact that Jabari was leagues better as an on ball defender, much more built for the pro-game and a near 1 of 1 shooter for his size.

I tried to go and watch some Ace film after the lotto and it was rough, ignore the odd flashy dunk, that handle and the manner in which he's scoring the basketball looks totally unnatural. He's another one of those 'Next Kawhi?' projects that I currently don't feel comfortable selecting with a top three pick.

Who in this draft do you feel comfortable taking there?

Kon, CMB, Edgecombe.

I think Ace is legitimately bad at the sport.

[76ciology]

thats the thing tho....I don't know if Bailey is an elite shooter tbh. Got to do more digging now that we have the pick tho

I think he’s far from being a very good shooter. He’s a 69% FT shooter

[stormi]

My only other cope is that, if SAS are unable to trade the pick, they might overlook Harper at #2.

Harper needs the ball in his hands and they already have Fox and ROTY Castle. I'd rather have Harper than either of those guys, but their main idea every season is optimizing Victor Wembanyama and I'm not sure a third lead guard is the way on a team desperately lacking skilled forwards and floor spacing.

[HotelVitale]

thats the thing tho....I don't know if Bailey is an elite shooter tbh. Got to do more digging now that we have the pick tho

Don’t think anyone thinks he’s ‘elite’ right now, he’d be a much better prospect if so. But he is 6’9+ and can hit shots on the run, the fade, off the bounce and catch etc. The argument here is that he already takes shots that he should be able to get off all day in the NBA, and I could see a world where you look back and be like ‘wait why did we doubt the tall guy who’s been beating his peers with a slick jumper and great shot making skills since he was 9?’

I don’t love him as a prospect though. Turning into Jay Bilas in my middle age but I don’t see enough basketball player rn. (I hate myself).

I think he’s far from being a very good shooter. He’s a 69% FT shooter

Agree but it’s quite a small sample. If he made one more FT every like two weeks this season he’d have been an 80% shooter.

[76ciology]

At worst he's Marquese Chriss.

Bailey even ending up at current level Jabari Smith would be a homerun outcome. There's a chasm between the perception of Ace Bailey (his aura?) and the performances he was serving up on the court all season.

Bailey isn't even 6'10 like Smith Jr or Porter, he's 6'7.

Jabari had significantly better assist numbers compared to Ace while maintaining a similar turnover rate. Bailey has generationally poor feel for the game and his handle is significantly worse as well.

There's also the fact that Jabari was leagues better as an on ball defender, much more built for the pro-game and a near 1 of 1 shooter for his size.

I tried to go and watch some Ace film after the lotto and it was rough, ignore the odd flashy dunk, that handle and the manner in which he's scoring the basketball looks totally unnatural. He's another one of those 'Next Kawhi?' projects that I currently don't feel comfortable selecting with a top three pick.

Who in this draft do you feel comfortable taking there?

Kon, CMB, Edgecombe.

I think Ace is legitimately bad at the sport.

Why Kon over Kasparas?

Kasparas has nearly identical measurements almost a 6’8” wingspan and an 8’5” standing reach, but he’s clearly the more skilled offensive player. He’s got more of that alpha skillset, with real shot creation and playmaking ability.

Kon, on the other hand, benefits heavily from playing off the gravity of Flagg and Maluach. His touches come easier, his defender has to respect the lob threat to Maluach, which gives Kon more space and less pressure in the paint. I think Kasparas can get 2-3 more assists per game if he’s playing with Maluach.

[sodmoraes]

I understand why we should be worried about picking Ace, but, in my opinion, we need to aim for a superstar. Embiid is done as a great player, PG is old and uninteressed and Maxey, as much as i like him, is almost hiting his ceilling, which is not enough to lead us to promissed land.

We need a star. Theres a good chance Bailey wont get there, but he has some potential. EdgeCombe just seems like a super role player kind of guy. Really useful in a championship team, but first you gotta have a star, which we dont. We need to swing for the fences with this pick, even if we miss lol.

Anyways atleast we have some nice things to discuss in this board nowadays. If we lost the pick it would be really depressing...

Sent from my SM-G780G using RealGM mobile app

[Negrodamus]

I think if we make the pick, it's Edgecombe. Has the athleticism, two way ability, and is a plus shooter. Morey, as an analytics guy, will be faced with Edgecombe's insane numbers and will simply have to take him over Bailey. He also can't help himself: Morey yearns for small ball.

Maxey
Grimes
Edgecombe
PG
Embiid

[76ciology]

My only other cope is that, if SAS are unable to trade the pick, they might overlook Harper at #2.

Harper needs the ball in his hands and they already have Fox and ROTY Castle. I'd rather have Harper than either of those guys, but their main idea every season is optimizing Victor Wembanyama and I'm not sure a third lead guard is the way on a team desperately lacking skilled forwards and floor spacing.

Yeah, I also have that though. But Wemby is the kind of big who makes it viable to run three guard lineups, while Fox and Castle are the type of guards that make it work. Its kind of a similar set-up the Thunders and Warriors are running now.

[SixthStreet]

I am going with the working assumption the Spurs will not draft at 2, either trading down or acquiring Giannis, and the team sliding in there is taking Harper. If so I'm taking Tre. I absolutely believe Tre's shortcomings on defense were because of a coaching staff that NEVER should have been around.

6 years from now if Tre falls lower than 3 people are going to be wondering how a guy with that kind of shotmaking ability fell. I feel like taking anyone but him is over-thinking it.

Fortunately I think Tre's profile is the kind that Morey values. If we keep the pick and Harper goes 2 I think it's a no-brainer.