bobbeaver wrote:Ill say one thing i noticed n laugh my ass off now. When he reached 38% shooting in a month ppl said oh this is his peak and its unstatainable. Than he reached 40% same story its his peak it will drop very soon you ll see. Than he went up to 42% again unsustainable he wount keep it up. Its not legit. Dude is at 50% now for a month with 18 ppg. You can just see the stats skyrocket each month. His true shooting is at insane 71% fr d month. While it all ll probably go down a notch the its still amazing. Onlything down are his fts
This is at least partially directed at me and I don't believe that I ever said he reached his peak. I said I was bearish that his current percentage (at the time) would be his percentage going forward. With a larger sample than before, I'm going to raise expectations slightly, but still think 40% is unsustainable and certainly think that the sample sizes are still far from conclusive.
He's shot 342 attempts this year. Kyle Korver had consecutive seasons in Atlanta where he shot 49.2% and 39.8% on 449 and 397 attempts respectively. Danny Green, a 39.8% career shooter over 2374 attempts, shot 33.2% over a full season (349 attempts) a few years back. These are massive swings over sample sizes larger than Saric's. You would have been misguided to project Korver as a 49% shooter or a 40% shooter going forward after either of those seasons, and also to suggest that Green would have been a 33% shooter going forward after his.
Nikola Mirotic's NBA track record from 3 actually looks similar to Saric's over each of their first 2 seasons.
Mirotic 1st season: 31.6% over 313 attempts
Mirotic 2nd season: 39.0% over 346 attempts
Saric 1st season: 31.1% over 341 attempts
Saric 2nd season: 39.8% over 342 attempts
Mirotic shot 34.2% and 38.3% the following two seasons and is shooting 35.7% career.
We can be pretty confident that Dario is a good 3 point shooter but there's no way that you can have full confidence that he's going to sustain his current percentage going forward. He might, but there's still a pretty decent chance he's a few percentage points below that. Fortunately, even if he's only a 36-37% 3 point shooter going forward, that's more than enough to space on offense.
It's also important to note that my line of thinking applies to all players and isn't Saric specific. I was making the same arguments about Covington early last season. 3 point shooting is a high variance statistic. It's foolish to have such confidence in even a full season's percentage (much less a single month's) and even worse to mock and laugh at people who attempt to make realistic projections.