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Winter is Here: Welcome Dario Saric

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Re: Winter is Here: Welcome Dario Saric 

Post#1021 » by gdog2004 » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:19 pm

long range bomber wrote:
Wilfried wrote:
long range bomber wrote:Keep Dario unless it is it is part of a package(with other pieces) for an Allstar signed to atleast 2-3 seasons to complement Embiid and Simmons.


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Unless, he's an Allstar in 2-3 seasons.

Love Dario but don’t think he has the upside to be an Allstar unless it is in the vein of team success recognition like the Korver/Teague Allstar selections.


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Seeing Dario up there dancing with all the other all stars during NBA All Star Weekend is reason enough to make it happen Sixer nation :).
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Re: Winter is Here: Welcome Dario Saric 

Post#1022 » by 76ersfan » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:07 pm

I remember a lot of people wanted Lavine instead of Saric but now with Lavine always being banged up it looks like a great pick.
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Re: Winter is Here: Welcome Dario Saric 

Post#1023 » by bobbeaver » Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:08 pm

Defense will come aswell, because he hasnt got superior speed he needs superior knowledge on D, and that comes with age. Seams to me he has worked on his speed and bounce in general to help though. He has stepped up his D from last year quite a bit, but it is not that huge a leap as his O so its not that noticed (he did have quite a few blocks lately though). I have no doubt he will work on it and get much better on that end aswell.
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Re: Winter is Here: Welcome Dario Saric 

Post#1024 » by bobbeaver » Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:35 am

Ill say one thing i noticed n laugh my ass off now. When he reached 38% shooting in a month ppl said oh this is his peak and its unstatainable. Than he reached 40% same story its his peak it will drop very soon you ll see. Than he went up to 42% again unsustainable he wount keep it up. Its not legit. Dude is at 50% now for a month with 18 ppg. You can just see the stats skyrocket each month. His true shooting is at insane 71% fr d month. While it all ll probably go down a notch the its still amazing. Onlything down are his fts
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Re: Winter is Here: Welcome Dario Saric 

Post#1025 » by Ericb5 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:12 am

bobbeaver wrote:Ill say one thing i noticed n laugh my ass off now. When he reached 38% shooting in a month ppl said oh this is his peak and its unstatainable. Than he reached 40% same story its his peak it will drop very soon you ll see. Than he went up to 42% again unsustainable he wount keep it up. Its not legit. Dude is at 50% now for a month with 18 ppg. You can just see the stats skyrocket each month. His true shooting is at insane 71% fr d month. While it all ll probably go down a notch the its still amazing. Onlything down are his fts


He is still getting better. I’m loving how his drives are getting more effective, and he is starting to get some calls.

He is so smart, and he plays so hard, that you would expect him to keep getting better on defense too. He really doesn’t have the physical tools to be a good one on one defender, but he should keep improving as a team defender.


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Re: Winter is Here: Welcome Dario Saric 

Post#1026 » by tk76 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:07 am

Saric will continue to learn what works in the NBA. He will learn to draw more fouls and find easier ways to score. He will learn how to get to his spots on the floor where his shot is automatic and he will cut down on taking shots he is inefficient at. Basically the same strides he made this year, but with greater refinement,

I'll say it again... Saric was a top 5 player in the world for his age for a long time and people just figured his lack of elite athleticism and length would catch up to him and limit his ceiling... and it will, but only to small degree. Because 6'10 guys who can shoot and have a great feel for the game can use the threat of that shot to give them the same type advantage as someone with an elite 1st step and burst. He does not need to blow past people or jump over them. He just needs to get to the spots where he is hyper efficient.
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Re: Winter is Here: Welcome Dario Saric 

Post#1027 » by 76ciology » Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:51 am

Fwiw, we prefer Ersan for D than Dario. I thought Beasley outplayed Dario for most of the game, then when we had enough of Beasley, we inserted Ersan at Dario's role.
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Re: Winter is Here: Welcome Dario Saric 

Post#1028 » by TTP » Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:23 am

bobbeaver wrote:Ill say one thing i noticed n laugh my ass off now. When he reached 38% shooting in a month ppl said oh this is his peak and its unstatainable. Than he reached 40% same story its his peak it will drop very soon you ll see. Than he went up to 42% again unsustainable he wount keep it up. Its not legit. Dude is at 50% now for a month with 18 ppg. You can just see the stats skyrocket each month. His true shooting is at insane 71% fr d month. While it all ll probably go down a notch the its still amazing. Onlything down are his fts


This is at least partially directed at me and I don't believe that I ever said he reached his peak. I said I was bearish that his current percentage (at the time) would be his percentage going forward. With a larger sample than before, I'm going to raise expectations slightly, but still think 40% is unsustainable and certainly think that the sample sizes are still far from conclusive.

He's shot 342 attempts this year. Kyle Korver had consecutive seasons in Atlanta where he shot 49.2% and 39.8% on 449 and 397 attempts respectively. Danny Green, a 39.8% career shooter over 2374 attempts, shot 33.2% over a full season (349 attempts) a few years back. These are massive swings over sample sizes larger than Saric's. You would have been misguided to project Korver as a 49% shooter or a 40% shooter going forward after either of those seasons, and also to suggest that Green would have been a 33% shooter going forward after his.

Nikola Mirotic's NBA track record from 3 actually looks similar to Saric's over each of their first 2 seasons.

Mirotic 1st season: 31.6% over 313 attempts
Mirotic 2nd season: 39.0% over 346 attempts

Saric 1st season: 31.1% over 341 attempts
Saric 2nd season: 39.8% over 342 attempts

Mirotic shot 34.2% and 38.3% the following two seasons and is shooting 35.7% career.

We can be pretty confident that Dario is a good 3 point shooter but there's no way that you can have full confidence that he's going to sustain his current percentage going forward. He might, but there's still a pretty decent chance he's a few percentage points below that. Fortunately, even if he's only a 36-37% 3 point shooter going forward, that's more than enough to space on offense.

It's also important to note that my line of thinking applies to all players and isn't Saric specific. I was making the same arguments about Covington early last season. 3 point shooting is a high variance statistic. It's foolish to have such confidence in even a full season's percentage (much less a single month's) and even worse to mock and laugh at people who attempt to make realistic projections.
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Re: Winter is Here: Welcome Dario Saric 

Post#1029 » by Bevzil » Fri Mar 16, 2018 10:55 am

TTP wrote:It's also important to note that my line of thinking applies to all players and isn't Saric specific.


Maybe, but you were pretty vocal about trading Saric cause you thought his value was highest at the beginning of this season. Well, his value is rising more and more so you were clearly wrong.

TTP wrote:I was making the same arguments about Covington early last season. 3 point shooting is a high variance statistic. It's foolish to have such confidence in even a full season's percentage (much less a single month's) and even worse to mock and laugh at people who attempt to make realistic projections.


Yeah, but you were basing your projections over last season only, totally ignoring Saric's last season in Europe when he was shooting over 50/40/90 (although that is a relatively small number of games, but still) . Last season was Saric adapting to NBA and it was logical to expect him having some adjustment troubles. But he is known for his ability to adapt. You should have known that if you analyze everything. He almost single-handedly won ABA league with Cibona when absolutely no one expected it and then in Efes he got better immensely on his shooting, also as a surprise to many. It was to be expected he will get better in his second NBA season as well.
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Re: Winter is Here: Welcome Dario Saric 

Post#1030 » by pepe1991 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:04 am

TTP wrote:
bobbeaver wrote:Ill say one thing i noticed n laugh my ass off now. When he reached 38% shooting in a month ppl said oh this is his peak and its unstatainable. Than he reached 40% same story its his peak it will drop very soon you ll see. Than he went up to 42% again unsustainable he wount keep it up. Its not legit. Dude is at 50% now for a month with 18 ppg. You can just see the stats skyrocket each month. His true shooting is at insane 71% fr d month. While it all ll probably go down a notch the its still amazing. Onlything down are his fts


This is at least partially directed at me and I don't believe that I ever said he reached his peak. I said I was bearish that his current percentage (at the time) would be his percentage going forward. With a larger sample than before, I'm going to raise expectations slightly, but still think 40% is unsustainable and certainly think that the sample sizes are still far from conclusive.

He's shot 342 attempts this year. Kyle Korver had consecutive seasons in Atlanta where he shot 49.2% and 39.8% on 449 and 397 attempts respectively. Danny Green, a 39.8% career shooter over 2374 attempts, shot 33.2% over a full season (349 attempts) a few years back. These are massive swings over sample sizes larger than Saric's. You would have been misguided to project Korver as a 49% shooter or a 40% shooter going forward after either of those seasons, and also to suggest that Green would have been a 33% shooter going forward after his.

Nikola Mirotic's NBA track record from 3 actually looks similar to Saric's over each of their first 2 seasons.

Mirotic 1st season: 31.6% over 313 attempts
Mirotic 2nd season: 39.0% over 346 attempts

Saric 1st season: 31.1% over 341 attempts
Saric 2nd season: 39.8% over 342 attempts

Mirotic shot 34.2% and 38.3% the following two seasons and is shooting 35.7% career.

We can be pretty confident that Dario is a good 3 point shooter but there's no way that you can have full confidence that he's going to sustain his current percentage going forward. He might, but there's still a pretty decent chance he's a few percentage points below that. Fortunately, even if he's only a 36-37% 3 point shooter going forward, that's more than enough to space on offense.

It's also important to note that my line of thinking applies to all players and isn't Saric specific. I was making the same arguments about Covington early last season. 3 point shooting is a high variance statistic. It's foolish to have such confidence in even a full season's percentage (much less a single month's) and even worse to mock and laugh at people who attempt to make realistic projections.



aric is disliked by advanced stats, is a defensive zero, and doesn't have a track record of production (he was not very good last year despite popular opinion here). If he was in a shooting slump but was providing positive value everywhere else, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

By the way, from January 1 to the end of season, the Sixers were -7.0 NRtg with Dario on the floor (102.9 ORTG, 109.9 DRTG) and -1.5 with him off (108.4 ORTG, 109.9 DRTG). So even during the period where he was playing his best, the Sixers were far better when he was on the bench.

If you want to change it to January 21 (the first game Embiid sat down post-injury), it's still -6.6 on and -5.1 off. The gap was much smaller, but they were still playing better when he was off the floor.



from page 41 to page 45 pretty much every second post is your telling people how his 37% is not sustainable for a season.
There is good reason why people like to poke fun when you are proved wrong, when you were so passionte in telling everybody how medicore Šarić is for 2 full years.
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Re: Winter is Here: Welcome Dario Saric 

Post#1031 » by TTP » Fri Mar 16, 2018 12:16 pm

Bevzil wrote:
TTP wrote:It's also important to note that my line of thinking applies to all players and isn't Saric specific.


Maybe, but you were pretty vocal about trading Saric cause you thought his value was highest at the beginning of this season. Well, his value is rising more and more so you were clearly wrong.

TTP wrote:I was making the same arguments about Covington early last season. 3 point shooting is a high variance statistic. It's foolish to have such confidence in even a full season's percentage (much less a single month's) and even worse to mock and laugh at people who attempt to make realistic projections.


Yeah, but you were basing your projections over last season only, totally ignoring Saric's last season in Europe when he was shooting over 50/40/90 (although that is a relatively small number of games, but still) . Last season was Saric adapting to NBA and it was logical to expect him having some adjustment troubles. But he is known for his ability to adapt. You should have known that if you analyze everything. He almost single-handedly won ABA league with Cibona when absolutely no one expected it and then in Efes he got better immensely on his shooting, also as a surprise to many. It was to be expected he will get better in his second NBA season as well.


I've already admitted many times that he's been better than I expected and I'm happy he is because it's good for the team. There's not a single person in the world that's going to be right about every prospect. What does that have to do with my argument about 3 point shooting projections?

My discussion with bob was during the middle of the current season and factored in his season to date results as well. I didn't ignore his European production. They just aren't as relevant for a number of reasons. For one, they're played in a completely different environment with different rules. There's obviously going to be less correlation to his expected future NBA production than his results to date in the NBA. We have countless examples of college and European stats not translating. For another, he barely had any sample in that 50/40/90 season. You're bringing up that he shot 40.3% from 3 in his final Euroleague season but it was a sample size of 72 attempts. That's basically nothing. The people that bring up a 40% 3 point percentage over a 72 attempt sample are likely the same people overreacting to month long hot and cold streaks. Dario shot 30.6% over 62 attempts the previous season, a similarly meaningless sample size. That means he shot 35.8% over the two seasons, which isn't too different from where I projected him going forward in the NBA a few months ago.
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Re: Winter is Here: Welcome Dario Saric 

Post#1032 » by TTP » Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:15 pm

pepe1991 wrote:
TTP wrote:
bobbeaver wrote:Ill say one thing i noticed n laugh my ass off now. When he reached 38% shooting in a month ppl said oh this is his peak and its unstatainable. Than he reached 40% same story its his peak it will drop very soon you ll see. Than he went up to 42% again unsustainable he wount keep it up. Its not legit. Dude is at 50% now for a month with 18 ppg. You can just see the stats skyrocket each month. His true shooting is at insane 71% fr d month. While it all ll probably go down a notch the its still amazing. Onlything down are his fts


This is at least partially directed at me and I don't believe that I ever said he reached his peak. I said I was bearish that his current percentage (at the time) would be his percentage going forward. With a larger sample than before, I'm going to raise expectations slightly, but still think 40% is unsustainable and certainly think that the sample sizes are still far from conclusive.

He's shot 342 attempts this year. Kyle Korver had consecutive seasons in Atlanta where he shot 49.2% and 39.8% on 449 and 397 attempts respectively. Danny Green, a 39.8% career shooter over 2374 attempts, shot 33.2% over a full season (349 attempts) a few years back. These are massive swings over sample sizes larger than Saric's. You would have been misguided to project Korver as a 49% shooter or a 40% shooter going forward after either of those seasons, and also to suggest that Green would have been a 33% shooter going forward after his.

Nikola Mirotic's NBA track record from 3 actually looks similar to Saric's over each of their first 2 seasons.

Mirotic 1st season: 31.6% over 313 attempts
Mirotic 2nd season: 39.0% over 346 attempts

Saric 1st season: 31.1% over 341 attempts
Saric 2nd season: 39.8% over 342 attempts

Mirotic shot 34.2% and 38.3% the following two seasons and is shooting 35.7% career.

We can be pretty confident that Dario is a good 3 point shooter but there's no way that you can have full confidence that he's going to sustain his current percentage going forward. He might, but there's still a pretty decent chance he's a few percentage points below that. Fortunately, even if he's only a 36-37% 3 point shooter going forward, that's more than enough to space on offense.

It's also important to note that my line of thinking applies to all players and isn't Saric specific. I was making the same arguments about Covington early last season. 3 point shooting is a high variance statistic. It's foolish to have such confidence in even a full season's percentage (much less a single month's) and even worse to mock and laugh at people who attempt to make realistic projections.



aric is disliked by advanced stats, is a defensive zero, and doesn't have a track record of production (he was not very good last year despite popular opinion here). If he was in a shooting slump but was providing positive value everywhere else, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

By the way, from January 1 to the end of season, the Sixers were -7.0 NRtg with Dario on the floor (102.9 ORTG, 109.9 DRTG) and -1.5 with him off (108.4 ORTG, 109.9 DRTG). So even during the period where he was playing his best, the Sixers were far better when he was on the bench.

If you want to change it to January 21 (the first game Embiid sat down post-injury), it's still -6.6 on and -5.1 off. The gap was much smaller, but they were still playing better when he was off the floor.



from page 41 to page 45 pretty much every second post is your telling people how his 37% is not sustainable for a season.
There is good reason why people like to poke fun when you are proved wrong, when you were so passionte in telling everybody how medicore Šarić is for 2 full years.


Yet you managed to pull a quote that doesn't support what you're referencing. I don't even have a post on pages 41 or 42. The quote you posted is full of truths. He was not very good last season and we were better than him off the floor. He's much better this season. In my opinion, the best way to evaluate players is to see if they're able to be a part of successful 5 man units and whether the team performs better when they're on the floor. Dario's done that this year.

While I agree that I was probably wrong about his value decreasing between the offseason and now, I don't agree that his current 3 point percentage confirms that I was wrong about projecting his 3 point shooting going forward. If I forecast someone to be a <37% 3 point shooter going forward, that doesn't mean I think they have 0% chance to shoot >37%. They may very well have 10%, 25%, 40%, even a 49% chance to shoot 37% or greater. A 35-36% 3 point shooter is still capable of shooting 40% for a season - there are countless examples of players shooting 5% above or below their career averages over single seasons. Continued sustained performance as the sample grows will increase the confidence that I was wrong, but we're still pretty far away from confirmation there. We'll need a few more seasons worth of attempts to be sure.

Also two full years? I've been a member of this forum for 18 months. I'm not sure I was calling Saric mediocre until the second half of last season (maybe even the offseason?) and I can't recall calling him mediocre any time recently. So maybe something like 6-9 months, much of which was offseason without any ability to provide evidence to change my mind? Also, if I was calling him mediocre at any point last season, I was being pretty fair.
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Re: Winter is Here: Welcome Dario Saric 

Post#1033 » by pepe1991 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:28 pm

TTP wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:
TTP wrote:
This is at least partially directed at me and I don't believe that I ever said he reached his peak. I said I was bearish that his current percentage (at the time) would be his percentage going forward. With a larger sample than before, I'm going to raise expectations slightly, but still think 40% is unsustainable and certainly think that the sample sizes are still far from conclusive.

He's shot 342 attempts this year. Kyle Korver had consecutive seasons in Atlanta where he shot 49.2% and 39.8% on 449 and 397 attempts respectively. Danny Green, a 39.8% career shooter over 2374 attempts, shot 33.2% over a full season (349 attempts) a few years back. These are massive swings over sample sizes larger than Saric's. You would have been misguided to project Korver as a 49% shooter or a 40% shooter going forward after either of those seasons, and also to suggest that Green would have been a 33% shooter going forward after his.

Nikola Mirotic's NBA track record from 3 actually looks similar to Saric's over each of their first 2 seasons.

Mirotic 1st season: 31.6% over 313 attempts
Mirotic 2nd season: 39.0% over 346 attempts

Saric 1st season: 31.1% over 341 attempts
Saric 2nd season: 39.8% over 342 attempts

Mirotic shot 34.2% and 38.3% the following two seasons and is shooting 35.7% career.

We can be pretty confident that Dario is a good 3 point shooter but there's no way that you can have full confidence that he's going to sustain his current percentage going forward. He might, but there's still a pretty decent chance he's a few percentage points below that. Fortunately, even if he's only a 36-37% 3 point shooter going forward, that's more than enough to space on offense.

It's also important to note that my line of thinking applies to all players and isn't Saric specific. I was making the same arguments about Covington early last season. 3 point shooting is a high variance statistic. It's foolish to have such confidence in even a full season's percentage (much less a single month's) and even worse to mock and laugh at people who attempt to make realistic projections.



aric is disliked by advanced stats, is a defensive zero, and doesn't have a track record of production (he was not very good last year despite popular opinion here). If he was in a shooting slump but was providing positive value everywhere else, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

By the way, from January 1 to the end of season, the Sixers were -7.0 NRtg with Dario on the floor (102.9 ORTG, 109.9 DRTG) and -1.5 with him off (108.4 ORTG, 109.9 DRTG). So even during the period where he was playing his best, the Sixers were far better when he was on the bench.

If you want to change it to January 21 (the first game Embiid sat down post-injury), it's still -6.6 on and -5.1 off. The gap was much smaller, but they were still playing better when he was off the floor.



from page 41 to page 45 pretty much every second post is your telling people how his 37% is not sustainable for a season.
There is good reason why people like to poke fun when you are proved wrong, when you were so passionte in telling everybody how medicore Šarić is for 2 full years.


Yet you managed to pull a quote that doesn't support what you're referencing. I don't even have a post on pages 41 or 42. The quote you posted is full of truths. He was not very good last season and we were better than him off the floor. He's much better this season. In my opinion, the best way to evaluate players is to see if they're able to be a part of successful 5 man units and whether the team performs better when they're on the floor. Dario's done that this year.

While I agree that I was probably wrong about his value decreasing between the offseason and now, I don't agree that his current 3 point percentage confirms that I was wrong about projecting his 3 point shooting going forward. If I forecast someone to be a <37% 3 point shooter going forward, that doesn't mean I think they have 0% chance to shoot >37%. They may very well have 10%, 25%, 40%, even a 49% chance to shoot 37% or greater. A 35-36% 3 point shooter is still capable of shooting 40% for a season - there are countless examples of players shooting 5% above or below their career averages over single seasons. Continued sustained performance as the sample grows will increase the confidence that I was wrong, but we're still pretty far away from confirmation there. We'll need a few more seasons worth of attempts to be sure.

Also two full years? I've been a member of this forum for 18 months. I'm not sure I was calling Saric mediocre until the second half of last season (maybe even the offseason?) and I can't recall calling him mediocre any time recently. So maybe something like 6-9 months? Also, if I was calling him mediocre at any point last season, I was being pretty fair.



The last 2 months (since Nov 25), he's taken 133 three point attempts. A 133 attempt sample is nowhere near a conclusive sample - even a 750 attempt sample is ~50% noise. He had over 2.5x those attempts last year and shot 31.1%. In that sample, he's shooting 39.1%. So if you think 38-39% is sustainable, you are basically saying that you think his peak is sustainable. There's just no way that's smart forecasting.



200 more attemps and you still make same argument.
Pretty much only reason why i replied is because last time i did, you reported me ( i said that Šarić make you eat your own words, just in different "more offensive way"-even tho it wasn't really offensive by any mean ). Than you called me nationalistic homer or something between that lines, ofc i didn't report you back .

Can you just simply admit that he got better and that you expected less?
His rookie season wasn't great by advanced stats, naturally on team where Embiid went down after 30 games ,him and RoCo were left to play with Stauskas, Okafor, Rodriguez,Alex Poythress and TLC. Hell at one point Stauskas was 30 mpg player.

I don't really expect him to be 40%+ three point shooter, but how many PFs in nba actually are?
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Re: Winter is Here: Welcome Dario Saric 

Post#1034 » by Bevzil » Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:06 pm

TTP wrote:I've already admitted many times that he's been better than I expected and I'm happy he is because it's good for the team. There's not a single person in the world that's going to be right about every prospect. What does that have to do with my argument about 3 point shooting projections?


If player shows no improvement, than you can say that basing expectations on past results is realistic. But what if he worked hard on his shooting and actually improved? What if he's future 38+% shooter? He's young and improving, and basing every projection only on past results without calculating experience and better shot mechanics, better shot selection etc. is perhaps not the best way to do it. You even bet that he won't be a 37% 3pt shooter this season because you expected him to get worse because of past results.

TTP wrote:My discussion with bob was during the middle of the current season and factored in his season to date results as well. I didn't ignore his European production. They just aren't as relevant for a number of reasons. For one, they're played in a completely different environment with different rules. There's obviously going to be less correlation to his expected future NBA production than his results to date in the NBA. We have countless examples of college and European stats not translating. For another, he barely had any sample in that 50/40/90 season. You're bringing up that he shot 40.3% from 3 in his final Euroleague season but it was a sample size of 72 attempts. That's basically nothing. The people that bring up a 40% 3 point percentage over a 72 attempt sample are likely the same people overreacting to month long hot and cold streaks. Dario shot 30.6% over 62 attempts the previous season, a similarly meaningless sample size. That means he shot 35.8% over the two seasons, which isn't too different from where I projected him going forward in the NBA a few months ago.


You wrote this:

After considering that he's a better shooter now than a year ago, I'd probably forecast him to be closer to a 35% shooter from 3 going forward.

In order for me to forecast him as a 38% shooter going forward, I'd probably want to see his career average somewhere around 36.5%, which means he'd need to be shooting ~45% so far this season and somewhere around 41-42% at the end of the year.


Right now, he's at 40 % for this season. If it stays that way, we can expect him to be 37-38% 3pt shooter going forward, and that's great.

I see no point in continuing this discussion, I get where you're coming from, I just think that you disregard potential improvement too much in your calculations. Mirotic, for example, was well known and respected shooter in Europe. Saric was not, he's more like Kawhi Leonard, 1 out of many players that actually improves shooting while already in the NBA.
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Re: Winter is Here: Welcome Dario Saric 

Post#1035 » by Ericb5 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:06 pm

This isn't directed specifically at TTP, but I AM looking good right now for our bet. :wink:

I think that a lot of people don't account for people improving in their projections so they will make arguments about how a player is currently playing, and project that out to the horizon. So if a player is a negative today then they will always be a negative. There is no statistical argument that can account for Saric going from a -2 OBPM last year to a positive 1.9 OBPM this year. I mean you could explain that improvement today, but last year the statistics didn't predict it.

Last year one side of of the argument looked at Saric's production and decided that he wasn't that good, and should be traded before other teams realized it, and the other side argued that he was a young player with a track record of rapid improvement in challenging environments over the last 5 years. It is the discounting of the ability for a player to improve that always bothers me in these situations.

Sometimes players DON'T improve as in the case with Okafor, but other times they do. What has happened with Saric should humble the statistical arguers, and make them realize that the statistics describe a certain amount of what a player is today, but have very little bearing on where a player will be tomorrow so we should all have open minds.

I'm not saying that Saric will average 40% from 3 for the rest of his career, but he is CLEARLY a good enough shooter to have earned the label of a stretch 4, and the idea that he would be a stretch 4 when he was drafted was not very likely. His shooting form is crisp and repeatable, and it shows up in his 3pt shooting, and his ft shooting, and will eventually show up in a midrange game.

I predict that in time that he will become a positive defender too. That won't be a strength of his, but he will not be thought of as a defensive liability. He works too hard. He plays too hard, and he is too smart to not keep improving over the next couple of years.

He is a better player and prospect than Mirotic.
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Re: Winter is Here: Welcome Dario Saric 

Post#1036 » by Sixerscan » Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:16 pm

I think a big part of this will be the sort of 3s Dario gets going forward. He's clearly improved as a 3 point shooter, but he also has Simmons this year who is a lot better at setting him up to step into his shot (which anyone who has watched him play knows is beyond key for him).

Compare that to someone like Oladipo who shoots "only" 37% but is creating a lot of those shots himself.

That's the good thing about having a lot of talent on the team though, the tide raises all boats.

That being said, for all I know Dario is going to keep improving his shot and just be a great shooter regardless. I've said this a lot in this thread, but he's a good reminder that upside doesn't necessarily equal athleticism.
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Re: Winter is Here: Welcome Dario Saric 

Post#1037 » by bobbeaver » Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:30 pm

TTP i wasnt aiming at you just in general. Saric had many doubters or even haters. Facts are that he is a better player each month. He progresses his game in a steady rapid manner since his first year. That was my biggest qualm with statisticians and haters. They didnt count in or see the continuous steady growth that was apparent since the first year and count in changes to his situation. And its not only his shooting that improved. His whole game evolved. He can play different ways and roles at a very high lvl now. Even as a volume shooter now. He is a born clutch player aswell, more so than Biid od Simmons. As his game rises and gets expirience he ll b more and more clutch with fewer mistakes. You see he wants the ball at those times and team will relay on him more n more at those moments.
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Re: Winter is Here: Welcome Dario Saric 

Post#1038 » by bobbeaver » Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:37 pm

Sixerscan wrote:I think a big part of this will be the sort of 3s Dario gets going forward. He's clearly improved as a 3 point shooter, but he also has Simmons this year who is a lot better at setting him up to step into his shot (which anyone who has watched him play knows is beyond key for him).

Compare that to someone like Oladipo who shoots "only" 37% but is creating a lot of those shots himself.

That's the good thing about having a lot of talent on the team though, the tide raises all boats.

That being said, for all I know Dario is going to keep improving his shot and just be a great shooter regardless. I've said this a lot in this thread, but he's a good reminder that upside doesn't necessarily equal athleticism.

Oh his step in 3s are essential defenitively but his 3pt shooting has progressed to the point that he started createing his own 3pt shots on occasions, mostly if defender decided to slack off a bit expecting a drive, but not always.
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Re: Winter is Here: Welcome Dario Saric 

Post#1039 » by TTP » Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:00 pm

pepe1991 wrote:
200 more attemps and you still make same argument.
Pretty much only reason why i replied is because last time i did, you reported me ( i said that Šarić make you eat your own words, just in different "more offensive way"-even tho it wasn't really offensive by any mean ). Than you called me nationalistic homer or something between that lines, ofc i didn't report you back .

Can you just simply admit that he got better and that you expected less?
His rookie season wasn't great by advanced stats, naturally on team where Embiid went down after 30 games ,him and RoCo were left to play with Stauskas, Okafor, Rodriguez,Alex Poythress and TLC. Hell at one point Stauskas was 30 mpg player.

I don't really expect him to be 40%+ three point shooter, but how many PFs in nba actually are?


Because the same argument still applies.

In what world is calling someone a complete tool not offensive by any means?

I've already stated many times that Saric is better than I expected. Given that you've been reading my posts about him for "two years", you should have already seen them.

This quote was two posts before your response. I said the exact words you're desiring. I'll bold them for you.

TTP wrote:
I've already admitted many times that he's been better than I expected and I'm happy he is because it's good for the team.


Here's another post that was directed towards you on January 29, found on page 45.

TTP wrote:
Regardless, my first post in the present discussion led off with me admitting that he's been fitting better than I expected.


Another post from page 45 :

TTP wrote:My initial post that you responded to literally shows me conceding that Saric has been better than I expected, and yet you say I don't find middle ground?


From my post on page 43 that started the discussion then:

TTP wrote:
If he continues to shoot well, he'll be a better fit than I suspected, though I still think we'll be better off with him coming off the bench.


Either you haven't been reading or you haven't been understanding my posts because stating it four separate times is well past simply admitting.
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Re: Winter is Here: Welcome Dario Saric 

Post#1040 » by pepe1991 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:23 pm

TTP wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:
200 more attemps and you still make same argument.
Pretty much only reason why i replied is because last time i did, you reported me ( i said that Šarić make you eat your own words, just in different "more offensive way"-even tho it wasn't really offensive by any mean ). Than you called me nationalistic homer or something between that lines, ofc i didn't report you back .

Can you just simply admit that he got better and that you expected less?
His rookie season wasn't great by advanced stats, naturally on team where Embiid went down after 30 games ,him and RoCo were left to play with Stauskas, Okafor, Rodriguez,Alex Poythress and TLC. Hell at one point Stauskas was 30 mpg player.

I don't really expect him to be 40%+ three point shooter, but how many PFs in nba actually are?


Because the same argument still applies.

In what world is calling someone a complete tool not offensive by any means?

I've already stated many times that Saric is better than I expected. Given that you've been reading my posts about him for "two years", you should have already seen them.

This quote was two posts before your response. I said the exact words you're desiring. I'll bold them for you.

TTP wrote:
I've already admitted many times that he's been better than I expected and I'm happy he is because it's good for the team.


Here's another post that was directed towards you on January 29, found on page 45.

TTP wrote:
Regardless, my first post in the present discussion led off with me admitting that he's been fitting better than I expected.


Another post from page 45 :

TTP wrote:My initial post that you responded to literally shows me conceding that Saric has been better than I expected, and yet you say I don't find middle ground?


From my post on page 43 that started the discussion then:

TTP wrote:
If he continues to shoot well, he'll be a better fit than I suspected, though I still think we'll be better off with him coming off the bench.


Either you haven't been reading or you haven't been understanding my posts because stating it four separate times is well past simply admitting.


i said that with his plays he makes you look like.... i didn't say you are that. it's clear difference, anyway reporting somebody over something that tiny is laughable IMO. I don't take things too personal on forum so i never reported anybody. It's place where people that never met, and probably never will, under made up nicknames express their opinions . It's as emotion-less as it gets in my hones opinion. But whatever.

I'm not only who went at you about him, so that proves that you rub others in wrong way as well and now , since your comments are always little bit ambiguous, you now trying to change narrative.

15 ppg, 7 rpg ,45,8% FG, 39,8% for 3 ,87% FT not bad for a guy who makes team better when he is on bench ( ignoring that him and Roco spent literally 50 games last year playing with third stringers and G league guys ,asked to do more than they could or should ) 8-)
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