2018 Pick Watch (Philly, LAL 1 or 6-30, etc)

[the_process]

Fultz would've been gone at 2 had Boston passed on him. So then BC either takes Lonzo or Josh Jackson.

I know there are plenty on the board who would've been way happier with that, but I'll take Fultz along with the chance that the Laker pick doesn't convey 8 days a week.

The Lakers were not going to take Fultz over Ball. Come on.

So you really believe Boston would have taken Tatum at #1?

Boston passed on Fultz because it would have been seen as letting IT go. That, in turn, would've basically ruled out them signing Hayward. But Tatum was not their target, he was a fall back.

The Lakers were known at the time to love Fultz, and even tried to trade up to #1 to take him. That's not to say they weren't happy with the fall back position of Ball, as well.

[Unbreakable99]

The Lakers were not going to take Fultz over Ball. Come on.

So you really believe Boston would have taken Tatum at #1?

Boston passed on Fultz because it would have been seen as letting IT go. That, in turn, would've basically ruled out them signing Hayward. But Tatum was not their target, he was a fall back.

The Lakers were known at the time to love Fultz, and even tried to trade up to #1 to take him. That's not to say they weren't happy with the fall back position of Ball, as well.

So you're agreeing with me that Ainge was not taking Fultz no matter what. Thank you. Fultz was falling to 3.

[Ericb5]

So you really believe Boston would have taken Tatum at #1?

Boston passed on Fultz because it would have been seen as letting IT go. That, in turn, would've basically ruled out them signing Hayward. But Tatum was not their target, he was a fall back.

The Lakers were known at the time to love Fultz, and even tried to trade up to #1 to take him. That's not to say they weren't happy with the fall back position of Ball, as well.

So you're agreeing with me that Ainge was not taking Fultz no matter what. Thank you. Fultz was falling to 3.

I said early on post lottery that I thought that there was a better chance of Fultz lasting to 3 than Ball. However, if the Sixers didn't trade up for him, someone else may have.

Since Bryan made up his mind that he wanted Fultz, and he had the ammunition to do it, it became a sensible thing to do, to ensure that he got his man.


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[the_process]

Boston passed on Fultz because it would have been seen as letting IT go. That, in turn, would've basically ruled out them signing Hayward. But Tatum was not their target, he was a fall back.

The Lakers were known at the time to love Fultz, and even tried to trade up to #1 to take him. That's not to say they weren't happy with the fall back position of Ball, as well.

So you're agreeing with me that Ainge was not taking Fultz no matter what. Thank you. Fultz was falling to 3.

I said early on post lottery that I thought that there was a better chance of Fultz lasting to 3 than Ball. However, if the Sixers didn't trade up for him, someone else may have.

Since Bryan made up his mind that he wanted Fultz, and he had the ammunition to do it, it became a sensible thing to do, to ensure that he got his man.


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This exactly. Just because Boston wasn't taking him doesn't mean there was any way he was falling to 3.

[Mrcrockpots]

It's going to be painful to watch Bamba rise to the top this year. I live only a few minutes away from where he played HS ball and didn't go over to see him play once. Very frustrating.

[Kolkmania]

It's going to be painful to watch Bamba rise to the top this year. I live only a few minutes away from where he played HS ball and didn't go over to see him play once. Very frustrating.

It's not just Bamba, their high school team was absolutely amazing. Cameron Reddish is on the team as well and I think he's one of the top three prospects of the 2019 class with Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett. You can still see him this year and avoid a similar regret next year.

[smittybanton]

Eight teams (de)constructed for the 2018 Draft:
CHI, ATL, PHX, SAC, BKN, IND, NYK ... ORL?

Celtics are not getting that pick!

We'll be picking around #8 and #17

Might could get that Miles Bridges...

[Chris76]

Eight teams (de)constructed for the 2018 Draft:
CHI, ATL, PHX, SAC, BKN, IND, NYK ... ORL?

Celtics are not getting that pick!

We'll be picking around #8 and #17

Might could get that Miles Bridges...

I hope your right, but it could be close.

Chi, Atl, Ind, Bkn, and Sac.........the bottom 5
Orl, Nyk, Phx, and Lakers..........the next tier

[smittybanton]

Eight teams (de)constructed for the 2018 Draft:
CHI, ATL, PHX, SAC, BKN, IND, NYK ... ORL?

Celtics are not getting that pick!

We'll be picking around #8 and #17

Might could get that Miles Bridges...

I hope your right, but it could be close.

Chi, Atl, Ind, Bkn, and Sac.........the bottom 5
Orl, Nyk, Phx, and Lakers..........the next tier

I think that's right. Once playoffs are out of sight and these young bigs start put up some highlights, the other three will throw in the towel, I think.

Knicks have no point guard. As we know, that is surreptitious tanking. Phoenix have absolutely no chance at the playoffs in the West, will probably trade Bledsoe at some point. I never have any idea what Orlando is doing.

Meanwhile, the Lakers want to build through free agency, so they want to win as many games and build as much excitement as possible.

Moving DRussell and getting a fair return for him, then taking Ball (and Kuzma), and I expect Brandon Ingram to take a step forward. Julius Randle, Clarkson, Nance--they're not terrible. Brook Lopez shooting threes is interesting.

[smittybanton]

Eight teams (de)constructed for the 2018 Draft:
CHI, ATL, PHX, SAC, BKN, IND, NYK ... ORL?

Celtics are not getting that pick!

We'll be picking around #8 and #17

Might could get that Miles Bridges...

I hope your right, but it could be close.

Chi, Atl, Ind, Bkn, and Sac.........the bottom 5
Orl, Nyk, Phx, and Lakers..........the next tier

CHI - Michael Porter
ATL - Mohammed Bamba
IND - Marvin Bagley
BKN - DeAndre Ayton
SAC - Luka Doncic
ORL - Collin Sexton
NYK - Miles Bridges
PHX - Robert Williams
PHI/LAL - ???? Trevon Duval ???? Hamadou Diallo ????

[Wilfried]

Think Phoenix (if Bledsoe is healthy) could be better than the Lakers.

And let's hope that playing in the east gives Orlando more W's than LA too

Indiana is not that bad (Collison - Oladipo - Young - Jefferson - Turner - ...). They will be better than most people think (and again, they play in the east, so they have some very mediocre teams to face)

To me:
Bottom 5
Chicago
Atlanta
New York
Sacramento
Brooklyn

Then:
Lakers
Indiana
Phoenix
Dallas

[Sixerscan]

Knicks won't be at the bottom unless they trade Melo or he falls off a cliff. Having a guy take up that many possessions at around average efficiency plus Porzingis is enough to be above that.

[shawn_hemp]

Boston passed on Fultz because it would have been seen as letting IT go. That, in turn, would've basically ruled out them signing Hayward. But Tatum was not their target, he was a fall back.

The Lakers were known at the time to love Fultz, and even tried to trade up to #1 to take him. That's not to say they weren't happy with the fall back position of Ball, as well.

So you're agreeing with me that Ainge was not taking Fultz no matter what. Thank you. Fultz was falling to 3.

I said early on post lottery that I thought that there was a better chance of Fultz lasting to 3 than Ball. However, if the Sixers didn't trade up for him, someone else may have.

Since Bryan made up his mind that he wanted Fultz, and he had the ammunition to do it, it became a sensible thing to do, to ensure that he got his man.


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Danny Ainge tell you that?

[smittybanton]

Knicks won't be at the bottom unless they trade Melo or he falls off a cliff. Having a guy take up that many possessions at around average efficiency plus Porzingis is enough to be above that.

True. I have him written off as traded. And it doesn't seem like they're getting much more than Ryan Anderson in return, even if they find a third team.

[smittybanton]

Think Phoenix (if Bledsoe is healthy) could be better than the Lakers.

And let's hope that playing in the east gives Orlando more W's than LA too

Indiana is not that bad (Collison - Oladipo - Young - Jefferson - Turner - ...). They will be better than most people think (and again, they play in the east, so they have some very mediocre teams to face)

To me:
Bottom 5
Chicago
Atlanta
New York
Sacramento
Brooklyn

Then:
Lakers
Indiana
Phoenix
Dallas

Indiana could win more games than they ought to, in the weak East. But Collison is a tank commander in my opinion. Jefferson is the huge weakness, and this draft has a couple stud PFs at the top. Why risk the ping pong balls?

Phoenix needs everything to come together to be better than LA. They've provided no answers at C--still counting on Chandler and Williams, with Alex Len unsigned. If Marquese can hold down the five without fouling out in under sixteen minutes, they could surprise. Suns need one of these 5s in the 2018 draft, pretty desperately. DeAndre Ayton is going to Arizona. Perfect fit.

They both were terrible last year. Since then, the Suns added Jackson, and nothing else. The Lakers got rid of a cancer, brought in a center who is better than anything the Suns have. Julius Randle is the rebounder you need to put next to three-point shooting Brook Lopez. They also signed Kentavious Caldwell Pope, on a prove it deal.

Solid draft picks in Josh Hart, Kyle Kuzma and Thomas Bryant.

The only way I see the Suns over the Lakers is if Lonzo Ball is a complete bust.

Lonzo Ball, Kentavious Caldwell Pope, Brandon Ingram, Julius Randle, Brook Lopez.
Jordan Clarkson, Luol Deng, Corey Brewer, Larry Nance Jr, Ivica Zubac
Briante Weber, Josh Hart, Kyle Kuzma, Thomas Bryant

[the_process]

Teams that are probably worse than the Lakers: Chicago, Atlanta, Phoenix, and Brooklyn

Teams that could be better or worse than the Lakers: New York, Indiana, Dallas, Orlando, and Sacramento.

Every other team is likely to be better than the Lakers. So that pick pre-lotto ends up somewhere between 5-10 in my estimation. And has somewhere between a 70.8% and a 96% chance of being the Sixers pick.

[smittybanton]

Vegas speaks:

1 - CHI21.5,
2- ATL25.5,
3 - BKN28.5,
4 - PHX28.5,
5 - SAC28.5,
6 - NYK30.5,
7 - IND31.5,
8 - ORL33.5,
9 - LAL33.5,
10 - DAL35.5,
11 - MEM37.5,
12 - DET38.5
13 - NO39.5,
.
.
.
SIXERS42.5

[Ericb5]

Vegas speaks:

1 - CHI21.5,
2- ATL25.5,
3 - BKN28.5,
4 - PHX28.5,
5 - SAC28.5,
6 - NYK30.5,
7 - IND31.5,
8 - ORL33.5,
9 - LAL33.5,
10 - DAL35.5,
11 - MEM37.5,
12 - DET38.5
13 - NO39.5,
.
.
.
SIXERS42.5

Wow. 42.5 is a good number, and I think it is accurate for an over/under, and I'd take the over if we have a normal season from our big three from a health perspective.


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[spikeslovechild]

So you really believe Boston would have taken Tatum at #1?

Boston passed on Fultz because it would have been seen as letting IT go. That, in turn, would've basically ruled out them signing Hayward. But Tatum was not their target, he was a fall back.

The Lakers were known at the time to love Fultz, and even tried to trade up to #1 to take him. That's not to say they weren't happy with the fall back position of Ball, as well.

So you're agreeing with me that Ainge was not taking Fultz no matter what. Thank you. Fultz was falling to 3.

Ainge would have taken Fultz I think. They were already SF heavy at the time with Brown and Crowder. Also with IT injury Fultz filled a huge need plus longterm I don't think Ainge viewed him as a max guy.

The reason why he didn't was for the simple reason is he wanted to acquire one of the big names and knew he was going to use almost his entire warchest to do so. So he made the move preemptively to sort of restock things. He's actually extremely lucky the irving situation came about because he was pretty screwed at PG which is why he gave up more assets then he offered for either George or Butler

[ProcessDoctor]

^^^Yea the Kyrie trade made me wonder why Boston didn't just take Fultz if they knew IT was injured...Tatum is def redundant with Brown/Crowder, and they could have packaged IT + BKN pick for another player instead (interior defender, rebounder, etc.) I feel like sometimes he just makes deals for the sake of it.