2018 Pick Watch (Philly, LAL 1 or 6-30, etc)

[LloydFree]

I don't see how the Kings are going to not be one of the 3 worst teams in 2018/19. The sweetspot for this conditional Lakers pick may be #5 this year. At least the 76ers would then have an unconditional Sacramento pick in 2019 as ammunition to help complete the team. Conditional picks have far less value.

[spikeslovechild]

Surely you understand the difference between someone bringing up the Paul pierce draft once every 3 months and you complaining 5 times a day every day.

In fact I'm guessing that over 50% of instances of people bringing up the pierce draft over the last 6 months is you bringing up the pierce draft in situations like this.

... And since the draft, at least 50% of the times I post anything about this ridiculous trade or pick, some other poster mentioned me by name in their post in order to take an unprovoked, personal shot, for not being a fan of the transaction. You choose to ignore it, so it keeps happening, and the topic keeps going.

How many of those "unprovoked personal shots" come after a day of you repeating yourself 20 times about the trade or making some super obnoxious statement about how you are a draft expert and anyone that disagrees with you is a child or a hack?

This trade just isn't that important. I don't care if you've become obsesssed about it to the point that you can't think about anything else and put something about it in your signature. It's one trade. You came up with some BS analogy with the pierce trade which you aren't even trying to defend now because you know it is ridiculous.

We've warned people where appropriate (I've also let more than a few insults by you slide, maybe I should tighten up on that?), maybe you can realize that there is something you can do on your end to allievate the issue.

Am I allowed to find this extremely funny? I mean this is a guy who randomly "unprovoked" bumps threads I said over a year ago (some of which my takes were admittedly completely wrong)

[Arsenal]

I don't see how the Kings are going to not be one of the 3 worst teams in 2018/19. The sweetspot for this conditional Lakers pick may be #5 this year. At least the 76ers would then have an unconditional Sacramento pick in 2019 as ammunition to help complete the team. Conditional picks have far less value.

1) It's too early to say how the Kings will do next year. They are currently 4th worst this year, and probably will finish around there. However they will have ZERO incentive to tank next season without their pick, so it's easy to envision them adding more veterans in an attempt to improve, and thereby finishing somewhere between 5th and 10th worst, as the Lakers are likely to do this year. 3-5 other teams (or more) should out-tank them.

2) The 2019 draft does not appear to have as much premium talent at the top as 2018. None of the top 3 guys from what I can tell, (R.J. Barrett, Zion Williamson, and Cameron Reddish) would go in the top 3 in 2018.

3) If the Kings are super awful, there is a decent chance they get the #1 overall pick in which case we keep it and flip the Celtics our pick instead.

When you combine these reasons, the odds of us missing out on a major difference maker in the 2019 draft are much less than you think. So I'd prefer to get the Lakers pick this year assuming it falls between 6-10 (obviously if it's #1 also).

[the_process]

I don’t see the Kings as a bottom three team next year. But time will tell.

[PLO]

I don’t see the Kings as a bottom three team next year. But time will tell.

Isn't 2019 when the rules change? So the lottery has a much flatter structure. I too think the Kings won't be in the bottom three but teams will have less of an incentive to tank; tanking in the last third of the season is what has traditionally set the lottery odds in stone. Now it seems there won't be that much difference in finishing a few places either way in the top 10 if the change in rules is happening.

A few weeks ago I wanted the pick in 2019, now after seeing (admittedly very little) some college stuff I want that Lakers pick this year.

[Arsenal]

If we get the Lakers pick somewhere from 6-10 I want Mikal Bridges. Perfect off-ball 3&D wing for us in the Otto Porter / Robert Covington mold.

[Patsfan1081]

I don't see how the Kings are going to not be one of the 3 worst teams in 2018/19. The sweetspot for this conditional Lakers pick may be #5 this year. At least the 76ers would then have an unconditional Sacramento pick in 2019 as ammunition to help complete the team. Conditional picks have far less value.

1) It's too early to say how the Kings will do next year. They are currently 4th worst this year, and probably will finish around there. However they will have ZERO incentive to tank next season without their pick, so it's easy to envision them adding more veterans in an attempt to improve, and thereby finishing somewhere between 5th and 10th worst, as the Lakers are likely to do this year. 3-5 other teams (or more) should out-tank them.

2) The 2019 draft does not appear to have as much premium talent at the top as 2018. None of the top 3 guys from what I can tell, (R.J. Barrett, Zion Williamson, and Cameron Reddish) would go in the top 3 in 2018.

3) If the Kings are super awful, there is a decent chance they get the #1 overall pick in which case we keep it and flip the Celtics our pick instead.

When you combine these reasons, the odds of us missing out on a major difference maker in the 2019 draft are much less than you think. So I'd prefer to get the Lakers pick this year assuming it falls between 6-10 (obviously if it's #1 also).

Adding vets though might not be a good idea though as the desperately need to tank the following year. Unless they can get somone decent on a one year deal I don't see them adding too much. Their vet acquisitions didn't really help to much this season beyond Hill being somewhat of a role model for Fox. I also disagree about the talent, it's still very early but Barrett looks like a teir by himself in his class and would be a top three pick in 18, especially now that Porter is out for the season. Guys like Zion and Bol have a very high ceiling and a low floor, it's uncertain how good they'll be but they have athlectism/size that isn't seen in this upcoming draft. Langford and Simons could end up as better prospects than Reddish also.

[the_process]

I don't see how the Kings are going to not be one of the 3 worst teams in 2018/19. The sweetspot for this conditional Lakers pick may be #5 this year. At least the 76ers would then have an unconditional Sacramento pick in 2019 as ammunition to help complete the team. Conditional picks have far less value.

1) It's too early to say how the Kings will do next year. They are currently 4th worst this year, and probably will finish around there. However they will have ZERO incentive to tank next season without their pick, so it's easy to envision them adding more veterans in an attempt to improve, and thereby finishing somewhere between 5th and 10th worst, as the Lakers are likely to do this year. 3-5 other teams (or more) should out-tank them.

2) The 2019 draft does not appear to have as much premium talent at the top as 2018. None of the top 3 guys from what I can tell, (R.J. Barrett, Zion Williamson, and Cameron Reddish) would go in the top 3 in 2018.

3) If the Kings are super awful, there is a decent chance they get the #1 overall pick in which case we keep it and flip the Celtics our pick instead.

When you combine these reasons, the odds of us missing out on a major difference maker in the 2019 draft are much less than you think. So I'd prefer to get the Lakers pick this year assuming it falls between 6-10 (obviously if it's #1 also).

Adding vets though might not be a good idea though as the desperately need to tank the following year. Unless they can get somone decent on a one year deal I don't see them adding too much. Their vet acquisitions didn't really help to much this season beyond Hill being somewhat of a role model for Fox. I also disagree about the talent, it's still very early but Barrett looks like a teir by himself in his class and would be a top three pick in 18, especially now that Porter is out for the season. Guys like Zion and Bol have a very high ceiling and a low floor, it's uncertain how good they'll be but they have athlectism/size that isn't seen in this upcoming draft. Langford and Simons could end up as better prospects than Reddish also.

Bottom line, I wouldn’t count on Boston getting a good pick out of trading down from one.

[PLO]

Each of the first three picks in 2019 has a 14% chance in the lottery at getting the top selection, even the 6th worst team has a 9% chance, which is about a 50% improvement on the current odds for 6th place. Hence finishing outside the top 3 but inside the top 10 or so has a decent increase in value compared to now. So even if the Kings finish, say, with the 7th worst record the odds for that pick are pretty good relative to odds for teams with worse records.

If the Lakers pick transfers to the 76ers this season the Celtics can be reasonably happy if the Kings turn out to be sort of a middling-bad team which is what many suspect, but the 76ers can also be happy given there's not much difference between odds for the 10 worse teams in terms of snagging the top pick, given the Kings pick is top one protected.

[spikeslovechild]

1) It's too early to say how the Kings will do next year. They are currently 4th worst this year, and probably will finish around there. However they will have ZERO incentive to tank next season without their pick, so it's easy to envision them adding more veterans in an attempt to improve, and thereby finishing somewhere between 5th and 10th worst, as the Lakers are likely to do this year. 3-5 other teams (or more) should out-tank them.

2) The 2019 draft does not appear to have as much premium talent at the top as 2018. None of the top 3 guys from what I can tell, (R.J. Barrett, Zion Williamson, and Cameron Reddish) would go in the top 3 in 2018.

3) If the Kings are super awful, there is a decent chance they get the #1 overall pick in which case we keep it and flip the Celtics our pick instead.

When you combine these reasons, the odds of us missing out on a major difference maker in the 2019 draft are much less than you think. So I'd prefer to get the Lakers pick this year assuming it falls between 6-10 (obviously if it's #1 also).

Adding vets though might not be a good idea though as the desperately need to tank the following year. Unless they can get somone decent on a one year deal I don't see them adding too much. Their vet acquisitions didn't really help to much this season beyond Hill being somewhat of a role model for Fox. I also disagree about the talent, it's still very early but Barrett looks like a teir by himself in his class and would be a top three pick in 18, especially now that Porter is out for the season. Guys like Zion and Bol have a very high ceiling and a low floor, it's uncertain how good they'll be but they have athlectism/size that isn't seen in this upcoming draft. Langford and Simons could end up as better prospects than Reddish also.

Bottom line, I wouldn’t count on Boston getting a good pick out of trading down from one.

Right now it's not looking good for them getting the pick but honestly none of it matters. It's all about Fultz. If Fultz is the best player in the draft which you know he should be considering where he was picked I don't care about the pick. It isn't going to be number one. The only way it would hurt is if it was 2 or 3 which right now doesn't seem likely.

What needs to happen is everyone needs to shutup about the trade figure out what we have with Fultz then go from there.

[Aussiepiston1]

Our Team is 11-7 with 2 last second losses to Sac and Houston so we could easily be 13-5 and Fultz hasn't even contributed yet. next year We have cap space for a max contract.
Why worry about something that may or may not even happen.
Right now Lakers pick is gonna be in the 6-10 range which will give us another Young player with upside.
Sac pick could be number 1 or number 10 but by then we will be a 55 win team most likely competing with Boston for the East and I'm sure some 19 year old rookie isn't going to affect that for either of us.

[shlo]

I don't see how the Kings are going to not be one of the 3 worst teams in 2018/19. The sweetspot for this conditional Lakers pick may be #5 this year. At least the 76ers would then have an unconditional Sacramento pick in 2019 as ammunition to help complete the team. Conditional picks have far less value.

That's what I'm hoping for. Fultz better pan out or Collangelo will look like garbage when the Celtics have Tatum AND a top 3 pick in the 2019 draft.

[long range bomber]

Our Team is 11-7 with 2 last second losses to Sac and Houston so we could easily be 13-5 and Fultz hasn't even contributed yet. next year We have cap space for a max contract.
Why worry about something that may or may not even happen.
Right now Lakers pick is gonna be in the 6-10 range which will give us another Young player with upside.
Sac pick could be number 1 or number 10 but by then we will be a 55 win team most likely competing with Boston for the East and I'm sure some 19 year old rookie isn't going to affect that for either of us.

A 19 year old rookie can definitely help a 55 win win team as TRADE CHIP for immediate help. The last time I remember a contending team get a high lottery pick was the 2004 Pistons team. While they wasted the pick on Milicic, imagine if they traded it for another established veteran? Or even drafted a future HOFer such as Wade, Bosh, Carmelo.

[Aussiepiston1]

Our Team is 11-7 with 2 last second losses to Sac and Houston so we could easily be 13-5 and Fultz hasn't even contributed yet. next year We have cap space for a max contract.
Why worry about something that may or may not even happen.
Right now Lakers pick is gonna be in the 6-10 range which will give us another Young player with upside.
Sac pick could be number 1 or number 10 but by then we will be a 55 win team most likely competing with Boston for the East and I'm sure some 19 year old rookie isn't going to affect that for either of us.

A 19 year old rookie can definitely help a 55 win win team as TRADE CHIP for immediate help. The last time I remember a contending team get a high lottery pick was the 2004 Pistons team. While they wasted the pick on Milicic, imagine if they traded it for another established veteran? Or even drafted a future HOFer such as Wade, Bosh, Carmelo.

Mate I get that but first of all We don't know where that pick is gonna end up and that's the gamble BC took.
Of course if Fultz doesn't live up to his potential and the pick is number 2 it's gonna hurt but We will both be a 55 win Team and Boston will be maxed out with Irving/Hayward/Horford so yeah they could use that to make some moves but it still doesn't guarantee anything and We could like Golden State where we have Embiid/Max FA/Simmons and enough Cap space to sign another Star so yeah anything is possible.

[long range bomber]

Our Team is 11-7 with 2 last second losses to Sac and Houston so we could easily be 13-5 and Fultz hasn't even contributed yet. next year We have cap space for a max contract.
Why worry about something that may or may not even happen.
Right now Lakers pick is gonna be in the 6-10 range which will give us another Young player with upside.
Sac pick could be number 1 or number 10 but by then we will be a 55 win team most likely competing with Boston for the East and I'm sure some 19 year old rookie isn't going to affect that for either of us.

A 19 year old rookie can definitely help a 55 win win team as TRADE CHIP for immediate help. The last time I remember a contending team get a high lottery pick was the 2004 Pistons team. While they wasted the pick on Milicic, imagine if they traded it for another established veteran? Or even drafted a future HOFer such as Wade, Bosh, Carmelo.

Mate I get that but first of all We don't know where that pick is gonna end up and that's the gamble BC took.
Of course if Fultz doesn't live up to his potential and the pick is number 2 it's gonna hurt but We will both be a 55 win Team and Boston will be maxed out with Irving/Hayward/Horford so yeah they could use that to make some moves but it still doesn't guarantee anything and We could like Golden State where we have Embiid/Max FA/Simmons and enough Cap space to sign another Star so yeah anything is possible.

I get what you saying but I wil point out a few things:

1. It pointless to say "nothing is guaranteed" because we all know this.

2. You say "why worry about something that may or may not happen". It is not worrying, it is planning.

3. Analysing the BOS/PHI pick situatiom is doubly important as the competition between BOS and PHI is zero-sum. They are competing for the same division, same conference and now the same picks.

[CoreyGallagher]

Kings are going to get a top prospect from this draft as well and their roster just doesn't seem as bad as it's performing, imo.
Idk, we'll see.

[long range bomber]

A 19 year old rookie can definitely help a 55 win win team as TRADE CHIP for immediate help. The last time I remember a contending team get a high lottery pick was the 2004 Pistons team. While they wasted the pick on Milicic, imagine if they traded it for another established veteran? Or even drafted a future HOFer such as Wade, Bosh, Carmelo.

Mate I get that but first of all We don't know where that pick is gonna end up and that's the gamble BC took.
Of course if Fultz doesn't live up to his potential and the pick is number 2 it's gonna hurt but We will both be a 55 win Team and Boston will be maxed out with Irving/Hayward/Horford so yeah they could use that to make some moves

.

I get what you saying but I wil point out a few things:

1. It pointless to say "nothing is guaranteed" because we all know this.

2. You say "why worry about something that may or may not happen". It is not worrying, it is planning.

3. Analysing the BOS/PHI pick situatiom is doubly important as the competition between BOS and PHI is zero-sum. They are competing for the same division, same conference and now the same picks.

Also you're last statement of " We could like Golden State where we have Embiid/Max FA/Simmons and enough Cap space to sign another Star so yeah anything is possible". - We actually could only afford 1 max FA (provided Bayless is moved for capspace). Not 1 max free agent and enough capspace for another star.

[Aussiepiston1]

Mate I get that but first of all We don't know where that pick is gonna end up and that's the gamble BC took.
Of course if Fultz doesn't live up to his potential and the pick is number 2 it's gonna hurt but We will both be a 55 win Team and Boston will be maxed out with Irving/Hayward/Horford so yeah they could use that to make some moves .

I get what you saying but I wil point out a few things:

1. It pointless to say "nothing is guaranteed" because we all know this.

2. You say "why worry about something that may or may not happen". It is not worrying, it is planning.

3. Analysing the BOS/PHI pick situatiom is doubly important as the competition between BOS and PHI is zero-sum. They are competing for the same division, same conference and now the same picks.

Also you're last statement of " We could like Golden State where we have Embiid/Max FA/Simmons and enough Cap space to sign another Star so yeah anything is possible". - We actually could only afford 1 max FA (provided Bayless is moved for capspace). Not 1 max free agent and enough capspace for another star.

Plan away mate haha I am down with that, I just don't like hearing people complain and act like the world is crumbling because BC traded a pick that may or may not end up having a huge affect if We get a max FA and Fultz pans out and if not we could mange to clear out enough cap space in 2019 when that Sac pick is due to have 2 max free agents/Embiid and Simmons since He will be on a rookie contract still.

[ProcessDoctor]

Still early, but FiveThirtyEight projects LAL to have the 7th worst record.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[hookshot199]

Kings are going to get a top prospect from this draft as well and their roster just doesn't seem as bad as it's performing, imo.
Idk, we'll see.

Tatum is setting the bar pretty high for the trade to be a success. Granted only 21 games, but Tatum looks like he's going to be a star. On the other hand, if Fultz performs in an equivalent way or, better still, reaches his potential as the best rated player in the draft, then it was worth the risk to get the player we wanted.

But let's say that Tatum and Fultz turn out to be equivalent players (of course playing different positions), then it comes down to whether BC guessed right on the Lakers this season and Sacramento next. If the Lakers finish seventh or higher and ditto the following year for the Kings, this is what the draft normally yields in the seventh and eighth spots. Only one great player (Curry), half a dozen really good players, and most of the rest ho-hum or worse.


7th Overall NBA Draft Picks
Year Player Drafted From Drafted By
2017 Lauri Markkanen, Arizona – Minnesota Timberwolves
2016 Jamal Murray, Kentucky – Denver Nuggets
2015 Emmanuel Mudiay, Guangdong Tigers – Denver Nuggets
2014 Julius Randle, Kentucky - Lakers
2013 Ben McLemore Kansas Sacramento
2012 Harrison Barnes North Carolina Golden State
2011 Bismack Biyombo Spain Sacramento
2010 Greg Monroe Georgetown Detroit
2009 Stephen Curry Davidson Golden State
2008 Eric Gordon Indiana L.A. Clippers
2007 Corey Brewer Florida Minnesota
2006 Randy Foye Villanova Portland
2005 Charlie Villanueva Conn So. Toronto
2004 Luol Deng Duke Fr. Chicago
2003 Kirk Hinrich Kansas Sr. Chicago
2002 Maybyner "Nene" Hilario Brazil 1982 New York
2001 Eddie Griffin Seton Hall Fr. New Jersey
2000 Chris Mihm Texas Jr. Chicago
1999 Richard Hamilton Connecticutt Jr. Washington
1998 Jason Williams Florida Sacramento
1997 Tim Thomas Villanova New Jersey
1996 Lorenzen Wright Memphis LA Clippers

8th Overall NBA Draft Picks
Year Player Drafted From Drafted By
2017 Frank Ntilikina, France – New York Knicks
2016 Marquese Chriss, Washington – Sacramento Kings
2015 Stanley Johnson, Arizona – Detroit Pistons
2014 Nik Stauskas, Michigan – Sacramento Kings
2013 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Georgia Detroit
2012 Terrence Ross Washington Toronto
2011 Brandon Knight Kentucky Detroit
2010 Al-Farouq Aminu Wake Forest LA Clippers
2009 Jordan Hill Arizona New York
2008 Joe Alexander West Virgina Milwaukee
2007 Brandan Wright North Carolina Charlotte
2006 Rudy Gay Connecticut Memphis
2005 Channing Frye Arizona Sr. New York
2004 Rafael Araujo BYU Sr. Toronto
2003 TJ Ford Texas So. Milwaukee
2002 Chris Wilcox Maryland So. LA Clippers
2001 Sagana Diop Oak Hill HSSr. Cleveland
2000 Jamal Crawford Michigan Fr Cleveland
1999 Andre Miller UtahSr. Cleveland
1998 Larry Hughes Saint Louis Philadelphia
1997 Adonal Foyle Colgate Golden State
1996 Kerry Kittles Villanova New Jersey