The offseason thread (Post Kawhi edition)

[the_process]

Wilson Chandler has to go out this year and prove he’s not done. Because he looked cooked by the end of last year.

[Kobblehead]

Given that he won't be playing the 30 minute role he was playing in Denver, I assume he'll be fresher.

[Mik317]

he also wanted out and it is also a contract year....pretty sure his effort will be there this year lol

[TTP]

Can Tyreke space the floor? If you ignore his flukey shooting season last year and focus on what he's shown to be for his career, he's a low 30s guy (with very poor scoring efficiency). Which means he'd be a 4th playmaker in our rotation that can't shoot. How's that supposed to work?

He’ll have more non-challenged 3s than last season if he plays with us, so that should offset any “flukey” risk.

I also would bet last season wasnt flukey given his trajectory and the volume of 3s he took.

Yeah I don't get the flukey thing, it was on high volume, sure it wasn't for a full season but it was for alot of it. Heck some still call Dario's season flukey (need more data lol), I do wonder if players can actually improve their game at all with this thought process.

Bron shot the best from 3 in his career when in Miami with Wade, was that flukey.....or was it the fact that he had a guy like Wade on his team who collapsed defenses and got him alot more wide open looks than he has ever had in his career.

Dario playing with Ben, guess what, probably helped him be able to shoot a better percentage from 3 along with his personal improvement although we did see guys starting to get to his shot in the postseason (hoping he is working on his trajectory at the moment). Same could've happened with Tyreke here and he actually wants to be here, unlike all the pipe dreams we had this summer.

Nothing changes the fact that Wilson was a negative last season on both the offensive and defensive ends, while Tyreke was a positive on both. In this 'positionless' basketball era, as some like to say, I would rather have the better basketball player. I hope Wilson is able to fill his role well this year and should do better as a role player off the bench (I get we are trying to be optimistic), but that doesn't change the fact that he hasn't been good at basketball in years and we could've filled the backup PF role with someone else cheaper or make Roco play more at that spot.

So why did LeBron shoot 33% from 3 in 2010-11 with Wade? Surely Wade was collapsing defenses and getting him wide open looks that year as well. That year was actually the highest of LeBron's Miami career in terms of assisted and corner attempts. His 2012-13 season where he shot 40.6% was certainly fluky. He never came close to that percentage before or since.

Even looking at his Cleveland seasons, he shot 35.4%, 30.9%, 36.3%, 36.7%. It's pretty clear that 30.9% season was a fluke, and that was on almost an identical amount of attempts to what Tyreke attempted last season.

3 point shooting is incredibly swingy year-to-year. You should always be skeptical when someone's percentage deviates significantly from their track record. Tyreke has probably improved as a shooter in recent years and is likely a bit better than his career average, but you'd be foolish to expect him to be a 40% shooter going forward. He's more likely to be closer to league average.

[TTP]

Can Tyreke space the floor? If you ignore his flukey shooting season last year and focus on what he's shown to be for his career, he's a low 30s guy (with very poor scoring efficiency). Which means he'd be a 4th playmaker in our rotation that can't shoot. How's that supposed to work?

He’ll have more non-challenged 3s than last season if he plays with us, so that should offset any “flukey” risk.

I also would bet last season wasnt flukey given his trajectory and the volume of 3s he took.

Here's the 3PM, 3PA, 3P% for a current player's age 26 to 29 seasons (his 5th through 8th seasons in the NBA). His career percentage (36.4%) is actually solidly above his average from this sample of his prime years (35.0%).



Note that the volume overall is fairly similar to Tyreke's 282 taken last season, yet 3 of these 4 seasons were pretty large deviations (>4%) from his career average and indicated very little about what to expect from him going forward. A volume of 282 attempts is a laughably small number to make that bolded assumption.

[ivysixer2000]

He’ll have more non-challenged 3s than last season if he plays with us, so that should offset any “flukey” risk.

I also would bet last season wasnt flukey given his trajectory and the volume of 3s he took.

Yeah I don't get the flukey thing, it was on high volume, sure it wasn't for a full season but it was for alot of it. Heck some still call Dario's season flukey (need more data lol), I do wonder if players can actually improve their game at all with this thought process.

Bron shot the best from 3 in his career when in Miami with Wade, was that flukey.....or was it the fact that he had a guy like Wade on his team who collapsed defenses and got him alot more wide open looks than he has ever had in his career.

Dario playing with Ben, guess what, probably helped him be able to shoot a better percentage from 3 along with his personal improvement although we did see guys starting to get to his shot in the postseason (hoping he is working on his trajectory at the moment). Same could've happened with Tyreke here and he actually wants to be here, unlike all the pipe dreams we had this summer.

Nothing changes the fact that Wilson was a negative last season on both the offensive and defensive ends, while Tyreke was a positive on both. In this 'positionless' basketball era, as some like to say, I would rather have the better basketball player. I hope Wilson is able to fill his role well this year and should do better as a role player off the bench (I get we are trying to be optimistic), but that doesn't change the fact that he hasn't been good at basketball in years and we could've filled the backup PF role with someone else cheaper or make Roco play more at that spot.

So why did LeBron shoot 33% from 3 in 2010-11 with Wade? Surely Wade was collapsing defenses and getting him wide open looks that year as well. That year was actually the highest of LeBron's Miami career in terms of assisted and corner attempts. His 2012-13 season where he shot 40.6% was certainly fluky. He never came close to that percentage before or since.

Even looking at his Cleveland seasons, he shot 35.4%, 30.9%, 36.3%, 36.7%. It's pretty clear that 30.9% season was a fluke, and that was on almost an identical amount of attempts to what Tyreke attempted last season.

3 point shooting is incredibly swingy year-to-year. You should always be skeptical when someone's percentage deviates significantly from their track record. Tyreke has probably improved as a shooter in recent years and is likely a bit better than his career average, but you'd be foolish to expect him to be a 40% shooter going forward. He's more likely to be closer to league average.

Well you did leave out Bron's other 2 years with Wade which were 36.2% and 37.9% along with the 40.6%, which makes 2 out of those 4 years with Miami career highs for him with the 36.2% being real close to a 3rd career high for him.

I know 3pt shooting swings and I agree with that, I just don't think a good season should just be thrown out like dirty laundry just like a bad one can't either. I don't think Tyreke is a 40% 3pt shooter, but with good looks, I figure he could maintain league average going forward just cause there is such a concentration on 3s now that free agents know its the main thing they have to work on. Maybe he did work on his shot, who knows, but I wouldn't just assume he would go back to his career average either.

[TTP]

Yeah I don't get the flukey thing, it was on high volume, sure it wasn't for a full season but it was for alot of it. Heck some still call Dario's season flukey (need more data lol), I do wonder if players can actually improve their game at all with this thought process.

Bron shot the best from 3 in his career when in Miami with Wade, was that flukey.....or was it the fact that he had a guy like Wade on his team who collapsed defenses and got him alot more wide open looks than he has ever had in his career.

Dario playing with Ben, guess what, probably helped him be able to shoot a better percentage from 3 along with his personal improvement although we did see guys starting to get to his shot in the postseason (hoping he is working on his trajectory at the moment). Same could've happened with Tyreke here and he actually wants to be here, unlike all the pipe dreams we had this summer.

Nothing changes the fact that Wilson was a negative last season on both the offensive and defensive ends, while Tyreke was a positive on both. In this 'positionless' basketball era, as some like to say, I would rather have the better basketball player. I hope Wilson is able to fill his role well this year and should do better as a role player off the bench (I get we are trying to be optimistic), but that doesn't change the fact that he hasn't been good at basketball in years and we could've filled the backup PF role with someone else cheaper or make Roco play more at that spot.

So why did LeBron shoot 33% from 3 in 2010-11 with Wade? Surely Wade was collapsing defenses and getting him wide open looks that year as well. That year was actually the highest of LeBron's Miami career in terms of assisted and corner attempts. His 2012-13 season where he shot 40.6% was certainly fluky. He never came close to that percentage before or since.

Even looking at his Cleveland seasons, he shot 35.4%, 30.9%, 36.3%, 36.7%. It's pretty clear that 30.9% season was a fluke, and that was on almost an identical amount of attempts to what Tyreke attempted last season.

3 point shooting is incredibly swingy year-to-year. You should always be skeptical when someone's percentage deviates significantly from their track record. Tyreke has probably improved as a shooter in recent years and is likely a bit better than his career average, but you'd be foolish to expect him to be a 40% shooter going forward. He's more likely to be closer to league average.

Well you did leave out Bron's other 2 years with Wade which were 36.2% and 37.9% along with the 40.6%, which makes 2 out of those 4 years career highs for him with the 36.2% being real close to a 3rd career high for him.

I know 3pt shooting swings and I agree with that, I just don't think a good season should just be thrown out like dirty laundry just like a bad one can't either. I don't think Tyreke is a 40% 3pt shooter, but with good looks, I figure he could maintain league average going forward just cause there is such a concentration on 3s now that free agents know its the main thing they have to work on.

I left them out because they weren't necessary to include to disprove the statement I contested. I don't disagree that players improve their shooting over time or that their situations improve over time. It's pretty clear that LeBron benefited from playing with better players in Miami and that he also improved as a shooter since he came into the league. However, that doesn't mean that he didn't experience fluky seasons within that time as well.

I'm not throwing the good season out. I'm adding it to the data we already have and adjusting my expectations appropriately. I'd argue that the people that are arguing "he shot 40% last season, he's clearly a good shooter" are the ones throwing seasons out - only they're throwing the first 8 seasons of his his career out in favor of the most recent one.

[ivysixer2000]

So why did LeBron shoot 33% from 3 in 2010-11 with Wade? Surely Wade was collapsing defenses and getting him wide open looks that year as well. That year was actually the highest of LeBron's Miami career in terms of assisted and corner attempts. His 2012-13 season where he shot 40.6% was certainly fluky. He never came close to that percentage before or since.

Even looking at his Cleveland seasons, he shot 35.4%, 30.9%, 36.3%, 36.7%. It's pretty clear that 30.9% season was a fluke, and that was on almost an identical amount of attempts to what Tyreke attempted last season.

3 point shooting is incredibly swingy year-to-year. You should always be skeptical when someone's percentage deviates significantly from their track record. Tyreke has probably improved as a shooter in recent years and is likely a bit better than his career average, but you'd be foolish to expect him to be a 40% shooter going forward. He's more likely to be closer to league average.

Well you did leave out Bron's other 2 years with Wade which were 36.2% and 37.9% along with the 40.6%, which makes 2 out of those 4 years career highs for him with the 36.2% being real close to a 3rd career high for him.

I know 3pt shooting swings and I agree with that, I just don't think a good season should just be thrown out like dirty laundry just like a bad one can't either. I don't think Tyreke is a 40% 3pt shooter, but with good looks, I figure he could maintain league average going forward just cause there is such a concentration on 3s now that free agents know its the main thing they have to work on.

I left them out because they weren't necessary to include to disprove the statement I contested. I don't disagree that players improve their shooting over time or that their situations improve over time. It's pretty clear that LeBron benefited from playing with better players in Miami and that he also improved as a shooter since he came into the league. However, that doesn't mean that he didn't experience fluky seasons within that time as well.

I'm not throwing the good season out. I'm adding it to the data you already have and adjusting my expectations appropriately. I'd argue that the people that are arguing "he shot 40% last season, he's clearly a good shooter" are the ones throwing seasons out - only they're throwing the first 8 seasons of his his career out in favor of the most recent one.

I can see that, I really don't think Tyreke is a 40% 3pt shooter. For him, league average would be a goal I could see being attainable. I do take into account the later seasons more though, cause he has had time to work on his shot so they should get more weight than when he first came into the league but I agree, saying he is a 40% 3pt shooter is going a bit too far.

[FireMorey]

Wilson Chandler has to go out this year and prove he’s not done. Because he looked cooked by the end of last year.

I don't think he's going to be a popular player here. I'm not a fan of his game at all, I hated the acquisition, still do. I don't think his skill set is going to be what people have issues with, though I think his slow lumbering style will grate on people. He's a "play when I want to" guy. Always has been. Some nights he'll get you 20 points 8 boards. He'll be focused and motivated from the start. Many nights the dude is completely invisible. In the winner take all game at the end of the season vs the T-Wolves, a game which went into OT no less, he scored 0 points. It was a brutal showing. "Play when I want to" guys tend to not be popular in Philly, a city that prides itself on blue collar work ethic and effort. It's why Dario is so loved. He can look slow and lumbering too at times, but he always busts it out on the floor every night.

Chandler better bring it this season or the fans down there will turn on him by December. Guy needs to be engaged and active.

[the_process]

Wilson Chandler has to go out this year and prove he’s not done. Because he looked cooked by the end of last year.

I don't think he's going to be a popular player here. I'm not a fan of his game at all, I hated the acquisition, still do. I don't think his skill set is going to be what people have issues with, though I think his slow lumbering style will grate on people. He's a "play when I want to" guy. Always has been. Some nights he'll get you 20 points 8 boards. He'll be focused and motivated from the start. Many nights the dude is completely invisible. In the winner take all game at the end of the season vs the T-Wolves, a game which went into OT no less, he scored 0 points. It was a brutal showing. "Play when I want to" guys tend to not be popular in Philly, a city that prides itself on blue collar work ethic and effort. It's why Dario is so loved. He can look slow and lumbering too at times, but he always busts it out on the floor every night.

Chandler better bring it this season or the fans down there will turn on him by December. Guy needs to be engaged and active.

I’d be calling CHI repeatedly about a Chandler, Bayless, 2nd, and 4M cash for Holiday and RoLo deal. Reinsdorf loves that $.

[Mik317]

Read on Twitter

watch as he still randomly drives in for a charge

[ivysixer2000]

Read on Twitter

watch as he still randomly drives in for a charge

I was still trying to figure out who that dude Roco was working about with...

[Stanford]

Read on Twitter

watch as he still randomly drives in for a charge

If that was a draft prospect, I'd pass.

[ivysixer2000]

Most I've ever seen Roco dribble, at least he didn't turn it over to air

[ankle420breaker]

Zhaire's injury does make me wonder if they'll look to pickup one more depth guy like Crawford or Hood, or just look to guys like Korklord, Shamet, and perhaps Shake to step up. I'd be fine with the latter.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[ProcessDoctor]

I wish Korver trade talks weren't dead. We could use 20mpg from a player like him. Instead, I think we'll be playing some combo of TJ + Furkan, which does nothing for me unless Furkan surprises and is ready to play with the big boys.

[ankle420breaker]

I wish Korver trade talks weren't dead. We could use 20mpg from a player like him. Instead, I think we'll be playing some combo of TJ + Furkan, which does nothing for me unless Furkan surprises and is ready to play with the big boys.

Korver trade talks shall remain dead and buried as long as Cleveland's asking price is a 1st round pick.

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[ProcessDoctor]

I wish Korver trade talks weren't dead. We could use 20mpg from a player like him. Instead, I think we'll be playing some combo of TJ + Furkan, which does nothing for me unless Furkan surprises and is ready to play with the big boys.

Korver trade talks shall remain dead and buried as long as Cleveland's asking price is a 1st round pick.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

I agree, but Bayless + a 2nd or two should be on the table. Having Korver play over TJ or Furkan would immensely boost our chances to win the East, which should be the goal this season.

Our 9-man rotation would challenge for best in the conference:

Simmons(20)/Fultz(28)
Redick(28)/Korver(20)
Covington(30)/Chandler(18)
Saric(28)/Simmons(14)/Chandler(6)
Embiid(32)/Muscala and/or Amir(16)

[ivysixer2000]

I wish Korver trade talks weren't dead. We could use 20mpg from a player like him. Instead, I think we'll be playing some combo of TJ + Furkan, which does nothing for me unless Furkan surprises and is ready to play with the big boys.

Korver trade talks shall remain dead and buried as long as Cleveland's asking price is a 1st round pick.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

I agree, but Bayless + a 2nd or two should be on the table. Having Korver play over TJ or Furkan would immensely boost our chances to win the East, which should be the goal this season.

Our 9-man rotation would challenge for best in the conference:

Simmons(20)/Fultz(28)
Redick(28)/Korver(20)
Covington(30)/Chandler(18)
Saric(28)/Simmons(14)/Chandler(6)
Embiid(32)/Muscala and/or Amir(16)

Yeah that would be a nice rotation, but the price on a backup in Korver is just too high. I think we challenge in the East regardless of Korver though, and I don't think he gives us that big of a leap against the Celtics or Raps at all to be honest.

Since we don't have Zhaire, really the only guy who could fill the role with mins would be Furkan. Now I don't know who would be worse on D, Marco or Furkan, but I'm willing to bet it would probably be close.

I do think BB needs to give young guys more of a chance to contribute, and Furkan would be the ideal candidate to try that with but I don't think it will happen knowing BB........we will get 20 mins of TJ, and have to like it.

[ProcessDoctor]

Korver trade talks shall remain dead and buried as long as Cleveland's asking price is a 1st round pick.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

I agree, but Bayless + a 2nd or two should be on the table. Having Korver play over TJ or Furkan would immensely boost our chances to win the East, which should be the goal this season.

Our 9-man rotation would challenge for best in the conference:

Simmons(20)/Fultz(28)
Redick(28)/Korver(20)
Covington(30)/Chandler(18)
Saric(28)/Simmons(14)/Chandler(6)
Embiid(32)/Muscala and/or Amir(16)

Yeah that would be a nice rotation, but the price on a backup in Korver is just too high. I think we challenge in the East regardless of Korver though, and I don't think he gives us that big of a leap against the Celtics or Raps at all to be honest.

Since we don't have Zhaire, really the only guy who could fill the role with mins would be Furkan. Now I don't know who would be worse on D, Marco or Furkan, but I'm willing to bet it would probably be close.

I do think BB needs to give young guys more of a chance to contribute, and Furkan would be the ideal candidate to try that with but I don't think it will happen knowing BB........we will get 20 mins of TJ, and have to like it.

I think he could absolutely catapult us past Boston or Toronto. According to RPM and RAPM wins, he added approximately 6 wins in his role last season playing just over 20 mpg. We could seriously sniff 60 wins with him on our roster.

However, I agree he's not someone we should overpay for. He'd still be an ideal acquisition this late in the off-season.