PLO wrote:Most posting in here hoping the Kings win, I seem to be the only one who wants the opposite.
First, I never thought that the Kings might be a better-than bottom 10 pick this year. This is all a pleasant surprise. But: De'Aaron Fox would have been ours if Colangelo had just played it straight and let the Celtics and/or Lakers draft Fultz. I would have rather given the pick to the Lakers than a traditional rival in our conference. I realize this would have created all sorts on problems on offense (that is, drafting Fox), but just imagine a defense with Fox and Ben guarding guards and anchored by Embiid. So that's where I stand.
Second, the Kings need four more wins (out of their remaining 22 games) to get to 35. Based on a 10-year review, 35 wins is generally the 10 pick. Short of a total collapse, multiple injuries, whatever, they're going to be 10 or above. The odds for a 10 pick to win the lottery are 3%. That's snake eyes. Only desperate people or people who have no real risk bet on rolling snake eyes. And snake eyes is probably the best odds we're going to get even if the Kings lose 17 or 18 out of their remaining 22 games. Check out tankathon.com for the odds.
More likely, the Kings will finish finish 12, 13 or 14. The odds of winning Zion range from 1.3% (12) to 0.5% (14).
Third, it's best for the Sixers if that pick is off the table, thus above 15. Even if they finish with the 10th worst record, the Celtics would still have a 10.9% chance of dropping into the top four - thus, the 2, 3 or 4 pick.
A 15 pick is not likely to help them trade for Anthony Davis. A 2, 3 or 4 pick very well might. Granted, two of the best players in the game today, Giannis and Kawhi, and Steve Nash in the 1990s were drafted at 15. But they were flukes.
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/history-of-the-nba-draft-by-pick/history-of-the-nba-draft-pick-number-15/Even a 10-pick is not likely to have tremendous value. Paul Pierce, Paul George and to a lesser extent CJ McCollum are the exceptions.
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/history-of-the-nba-draft-by-pick/history-of-the-nba-draft-pick-number-10/So yes, I don't want the Celtics to get Anthony Davis.
As things stand today, the best they can get in this year's draft - short of winning the lottery with the Sacramento pick - would be a 9 pick (Memphis), then a 15 pick (Sacramento) and whatever the Kings pick becomes. If the Kings make the playoffs, (15-18). That's not as good as what the Lakers have to offer unless Tatum is in the Celtics deal.
As for LeBron, he's lost a year whether the Lakers finish seven, eight, nine or 10. Father Time is finally catching up with him. He made a mistake by snubbing the Sixers. He now has to finish his career - even if the Lakers sign Kawhi or trade away every young player they have to get Anthony Davis - for a team that will probably never be better than a 4-seed.
So yes, I'm rooting for the Kings.
Except Oden manged to play over 100 games in the NBA, I don't think Embiid will play more.