Welcome Jimmy Butler

[76ciology]

Jimmy Butler's last 3 games:

24.0 ppg, 6.3 apg, 5.3 rpg, 2.3 spg, 48.9% FG, 8.6 FTA/G

[Bum Adebayo]

He is looking much better, if Brett shows the willingness to stop forcing him to be an off ball spot shooter and Jimmy keeps playing well, it could be acceptable to pay him the money he wants.

[eyeatoma]

Butler was frustrated at embiid ball hogging yesterday. He could bully Middleton or whoever was guarding him yesterday all game. When bucks sent double team at embiid. He should have passed it to butler. But either Embiid had tunnel vision trying to play hero ball or passed it to tj who did nothing with the ball excpet hold it.

Umm no he wasn't.

Sent from my SM-G975F using Tapatalk

[AirP.]

Although this was done before this season started, fivethirtyeight tries to predict a player's performance and how much they're worth in the market with a process they call CARMELO, Player's who have had a much different year this season would be off, like Embiid and Harris. It'll be very interesting to see how these numbers change, especially Embiid's and Harris'.

Butler's CARMELO link is at...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/jimmy-butler/

Butler's value for this year and the next 5 years is estimated market value as...
Season / Market value in millions / Age
18-19 / 63.1 / 29
19-20 / 61.8 / 30
20-21 / 52.6 / 31
21-22 / 46.5 / 32
22-23 / 43.3 / 33
23-24 / 35.7 / 34
24-25 / 31.9 / 35

Fivethrityeight's next 5 year value for Butler is estimated at 240 million. Although a max payment would be overpaying at that age, Butler will still be a 30+ million market value at age 34 and more then likely his value to the roster would not be able to be replaced with the small amount of money the team would have available to spend on free agents.

Being lazy, I'm taking FiveThirtyEight's preseason 5 year estimate(this year and the next 4) and their estimated market value.
Player / Market value in millions for the next 5 years
Butler - 267.4
Simmons - 400.7
Harris - 82.8 (this may get close to double after this season)
Embiid - 198.4 (expecting this to get close to doubling after this season)

FiveThirtyEight's Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization (CARMELO) is a system that forecasts a player‘s future performance. The similarity score is an index measuring how comparable one player is to another, scaled such that a score of zero is average similarity and 100 is the highest possible degree of similarity. Plus-minus is derived from Box Plus/Minus, a measure of the number of points per 100 possessions that a player contributed to his team, relative to an average NBA player. All player ages are as of Feb. 1, 2019.

[rzzzzz]

Jimmy makes closing an art form. (and is there another team out there that needed a transcendent closer more than us?)

[ProcessDoctor]

I think the case regarding his impact and value to this team should be closed at this point. Offer him the max and hope he’s interested in sticking around for the next 4-5 years.

[Bum Adebayo]

His value is as a closer, only then a max can be justified, because it is something we desperately needed, especially against Celtics where many games are close games. It seems Brett is letting him do more at end of games so that is nice to see.

[76ciology]

Roco is now out for the season and has missed a lot chunk of games.

Stop for a while and imagine how disastrous this season would have been if we didnt trade for Jimmy and Tobias.

It’s basically the inferior team we had last season without Beli and ilya. The same team that almost not made the playoffs.

[76ciology]

Although this was done before this season started, fivethirtyeight tries to predict a player's performance and how much they're worth in the market with a process they call CARMELO, Player's who have had a much different year this season would be off, like Embiid and Harris. It'll be very interesting to see how these numbers change, especially Embiid's and Harris'.

Butler's CARMELO link is at...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/jimmy-butler/

Butler's value for this year and the next 5 years is estimated market value as...
Season / Market value in millions / Age
18-19 / 63.1 / 29
19-20 / 61.8 / 30
20-21 / 52.6 / 31
21-22 / 46.5 / 32
22-23 / 43.3 / 33
23-24 / 35.7 / 34
24-25 / 31.9 / 35

Fivethrityeight's next 5 year value for Butler is estimated at 240 million. Although a max payment would be overpaying at that age, Butler will still be a 30+ million market value at age 34 and more then likely his value to the roster would not be able to be replaced with the small amount of money the team would have available to spend on free agents.

Being lazy, I'm taking FiveThirtyEight's preseason 5 year estimate(this year and the next 4) and their estimated market value.
Player / Market value in millions for the next 5 years
Butler - 267.4
Simmons - 400.7
Harris - 82.8 (this may get close to double after this season)
Embiid - 198.4 (expecting this to get close to doubling after this season)

FiveThirtyEight's Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization (CARMELO) is a system that forecasts a player‘s future performance. The similarity score is an index measuring how comparable one player is to another, scaled such that a score of zero is average similarity and 100 is the highest possible degree of similarity. Plus-minus is derived from Box Plus/Minus, a measure of the number of points per 100 possessions that a player contributed to his team, relative to an average NBA player. All player ages are as of Feb. 1, 2019.

Simmons at $400M with Embiid at$198 makes me skeptic about that approach.

[76ciology]

See max contract is relative. Its relative to guys league wise and the team.

I’ll say it again, Butler is the SECOND most important guy on the team. If Ben walks, we’d still be a contender. If Butler walks, we’re a 2nd round team at best.

[AirP.]

Although this was done before this season started, fivethirtyeight tries to predict a player's performance and how much they're worth in the market with a process they call CARMELO, Player's who have had a much different year this season would be off, like Embiid and Harris. It'll be very interesting to see how these numbers change, especially Embiid's and Harris'.

Butler's CARMELO link is at...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/jimmy-butler/

Butler's value for this year and the next 5 years is estimated market value as...
Season / Market value in millions / Age
18-19 / 63.1 / 29
19-20 / 61.8 / 30
20-21 / 52.6 / 31
21-22 / 46.5 / 32
22-23 / 43.3 / 33
23-24 / 35.7 / 34
24-25 / 31.9 / 35

Fivethrityeight's next 5 year value for Butler is estimated at 240 million. Although a max payment would be overpaying at that age, Butler will still be a 30+ million market value at age 34 and more then likely his value to the roster would not be able to be replaced with the small amount of money the team would have available to spend on free agents.

Being lazy, I'm taking FiveThirtyEight's preseason 5 year estimate(this year and the next 4) and their estimated market value.
Player / Market value in millions for the next 5 years
Butler - 267.4
Simmons - 400.7
Harris - 82.8 (this may get close to double after this season)
Embiid - 198.4 (expecting this to get close to doubling after this season)

FiveThirtyEight's Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization (CARMELO) is a system that forecasts a player‘s future performance. The similarity score is an index measuring how comparable one player is to another, scaled such that a score of zero is average similarity and 100 is the highest possible degree of similarity. Plus-minus is derived from Box Plus/Minus, a measure of the number of points per 100 possessions that a player contributed to his team, relative to an average NBA player. All player ages are as of Feb. 1, 2019.

Simmons at $400M with Embiid at$198 makes me skeptic about that approach.

Why, Embiid has missed a ton of games in his short NBA career, that factors in. He only played in 94 of a possible 164 games his first couple of years playing in the NBA. It's pretty amazing his value is that high with that factored in.

[76ciology]

Although this was done before this season started, fivethirtyeight tries to predict a player's performance and how much they're worth in the market with a process they call CARMELO, Player's who have had a much different year this season would be off, like Embiid and Harris. It'll be very interesting to see how these numbers change, especially Embiid's and Harris'.

Butler's CARMELO link is at...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/jimmy-butler/

Butler's value for this year and the next 5 years is estimated market value as...
Season / Market value in millions / Age
18-19 / 63.1 / 29
19-20 / 61.8 / 30
20-21 / 52.6 / 31
21-22 / 46.5 / 32
22-23 / 43.3 / 33
23-24 / 35.7 / 34
24-25 / 31.9 / 35

Fivethrityeight's next 5 year value for Butler is estimated at 240 million. Although a max payment would be overpaying at that age, Butler will still be a 30+ million market value at age 34 and more then likely his value to the roster would not be able to be replaced with the small amount of money the team would have available to spend on free agents.

Being lazy, I'm taking FiveThirtyEight's preseason 5 year estimate(this year and the next 4) and their estimated market value.
Player / Market value in millions for the next 5 years
Butler - 267.4
Simmons - 400.7
Harris - 82.8 (this may get close to double after this season)
Embiid - 198.4 (expecting this to get close to doubling after this season)

Simmons at $400M with Embiid at$198 makes me skeptic about that approach.

Why, Embiid has missed a ton of games in his short NBA career, that factors in. He only played in 94 of a possible 164 games his first couple of years playing in the NBA. It's pretty amazing his value is that high with that factored in.

it’s a system that blindly just look at the numbers, while i dont know what kind of numbers will say ben is worth that much.

[TTP]

Although this was done before this season started, fivethirtyeight tries to predict a player's performance and how much they're worth in the market with a process they call CARMELO, Player's who have had a much different year this season would be off, like Embiid and Harris. It'll be very interesting to see how these numbers change, especially Embiid's and Harris'.

Butler's CARMELO link is at...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/jimmy-butler/

Butler's value for this year and the next 5 years is estimated market value as...
Season / Market value in millions / Age
18-19 / 63.1 / 29
19-20 / 61.8 / 30
20-21 / 52.6 / 31
21-22 / 46.5 / 32
22-23 / 43.3 / 33
23-24 / 35.7 / 34
24-25 / 31.9 / 35

Fivethrityeight's next 5 year value for Butler is estimated at 240 million. Although a max payment would be overpaying at that age, Butler will still be a 30+ million market value at age 34 and more then likely his value to the roster would not be able to be replaced with the small amount of money the team would have available to spend on free agents.

Being lazy, I'm taking FiveThirtyEight's preseason 5 year estimate(this year and the next 4) and their estimated market value.
Player / Market value in millions for the next 5 years
Butler - 267.4
Simmons - 400.7
Harris - 82.8 (this may get close to double after this season)
Embiid - 198.4 (expecting this to get close to doubling after this season)

FiveThirtyEight's Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization (CARMELO) is a system that forecasts a player‘s future performance. The similarity score is an index measuring how comparable one player is to another, scaled such that a score of zero is average similarity and 100 is the highest possible degree of similarity. Plus-minus is derived from Box Plus/Minus, a measure of the number of points per 100 possessions that a player contributed to his team, relative to an average NBA player. All player ages are as of Feb. 1, 2019.

Not surprising. Most advanced stat models love Jimmy. There's a very real chance that he was a top 5 player two years ago and he's been in that 9 to 20 player range for years.

Maybe his body fails him because of the high usage during the Thibs years but he didn't start getting big NBA minutes until he was 23. I also think he ages better than people expect because he's not reliant on speed and athleticism like some other guys are. It's not like he's constantly blowing by guys. He's incredibly crafty on both ends. His ball fakes, pivots, and up and unders are exceptional and he gets to the line a ton. There's no reason to expect that he won't be able to do these things at a high level at age 34. He also seems to have an incredible work ethic, and his time here shows that he's willing to adapt to changing conditions.

We'd be foolish to not give him a max.

[AirP.]

Simmons at $400M with Embiid at$198 makes me skeptic about that approach.

Why, Embiid has missed a ton of games in his short NBA career, that factors in. He only played in 94 of a possible 164 games his first couple of years playing in the NBA. It's pretty amazing his value is that high with that factored in.

it’s a system that blindly just look at the numbers, while i dont know what kind of numbers will say ben is worth that much.

The basics of the system are largely similar to previous years, with the backbone of CARMELO remaining an algorithm that compares current players to past ones who had statistically similar profile through the same age. For instance, Utah Jazz phenom Donovan Mitchell is similar to players such as Gilbert Arenas, Ray Allen, Stephen Curry, Ben Gordon, Victor Oladipo and O.J. Mayo through this early point in their respective careers. Some of those players (Allen, Curry) became superstars, while others (Gordon, Mayo) didn’t really pan out. The combination of those good and not-so-good outcomes gives us a probabilistic forecast for the rest of Mitchell’s career.

There's more detail about how the CARMELO prediction system and how it's changed through the years at...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-nba-player-projections-are-ready-for-2018-19/

[76ciology]

Although this was done before this season started, fivethirtyeight tries to predict a player's performance and how much they're worth in the market with a process they call CARMELO, Player's who have had a much different year this season would be off, like Embiid and Harris. It'll be very interesting to see how these numbers change, especially Embiid's and Harris'.

Butler's CARMELO link is at...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/jimmy-butler/

Butler's value for this year and the next 5 years is estimated market value as...
Season / Market value in millions / Age
18-19 / 63.1 / 29
19-20 / 61.8 / 30
20-21 / 52.6 / 31
21-22 / 46.5 / 32
22-23 / 43.3 / 33
23-24 / 35.7 / 34
24-25 / 31.9 / 35

Fivethrityeight's next 5 year value for Butler is estimated at 240 million. Although a max payment would be overpaying at that age, Butler will still be a 30+ million market value at age 34 and more then likely his value to the roster would not be able to be replaced with the small amount of money the team would have available to spend on free agents.

Being lazy, I'm taking FiveThirtyEight's preseason 5 year estimate(this year and the next 4) and their estimated market value.
Player / Market value in millions for the next 5 years
Butler - 267.4
Simmons - 400.7
Harris - 82.8 (this may get close to double after this season)
Embiid - 198.4 (expecting this to get close to doubling after this season)

FiveThirtyEight's Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization (CARMELO) is a system that forecasts a player‘s future performance. The similarity score is an index measuring how comparable one player is to another, scaled such that a score of zero is average similarity and 100 is the highest possible degree of similarity. Plus-minus is derived from Box Plus/Minus, a measure of the number of points per 100 possessions that a player contributed to his team, relative to an average NBA player. All player ages are as of Feb. 1, 2019.

Not surprising. Most advanced stat models love Jimmy. There's a very real chance that he was a top 5 player two years ago and he's been in that 9 to 20 player range for years.

Maybe his body fails him because of the high usage during the Thibs years but he didn't start getting big NBA minutes until he was 23. I also think he ages better than people expect because he's not reliant on speed and athleticism like some other guys are. It's not like he's constantly blowing by guys. He's incredibly crafty on both ends. His ball fakes, pivots, and up and unders are exceptional and he gets to the line a ton. There's no reason to expect that he won't be able to do these things at a high level at age 34. He also seems to have an incredible work ethic, and his time here shows that he's willing to adapt to changing conditions.

We'd be foolish to not give him a max.

Great post. Yeah, i find him to be a genius in creating space and drawing fouls. His understanding of the game, such as pacing, is really elite.

[PhillyPhilly]

To put things into perspective, Last July The Rockets gave Chris Paul a four year 160m Dollar contract AGED 33, and he's about to turn 34 In May. And folks are talking about Jimmy who is just 29 and still In his prime? We haven't even seen our current team at their full potential yet imo. Butler, Tobias, Simmons and Embiid will be even better should they stay together for next season.

[AirP.]

aybe his body fails him because of the high usage during the Thibs years but he didn't start getting big NBA minutes until he was 23. I also think he ages better than people expect because he's not reliant on speed and athleticism like some other guys are. It's not like he's constantly blowing by guys. He's incredibly crafty on both ends. His ball fakes, pivots, and up and unders are exceptional and he gets to the line a ton. There's no reason to expect that he won't be able to do these things at a high level at age 34. He also seems to have an incredible work ethic, and his time here shows that he's willing to adapt to changing conditions.

We'd be foolish to not give him a max.

I'm really not that much into minutes hurting a career, there's way too many other variables that need to be considered that aren't available to any of us(amount of practice, players getting rest in their offtime). A guy like Tim Duncan played 38.7 or more minutes per game his first 6 years under Pop.

Also on Thibs minutes, the 2 year Butler was under Hoiberg, Butler averaged 37 minutes a night.

Right now, regular season minutes for their career...
Butler - 17038
Harris - 16294

Playoffs though...
Butler - 1627
Harris - 156

So if people want to go the minutes route, Butler doesn't have many miles on him.

How Butler keeps himself in shape plus he's got more of an old man's game that should be highly effective into his mid 30s, possibly late 30s, if he works on his 3 ball again, he could probably become a near 40% 3pt shooter. Early in Butler's career he was projecting out at a 3&D guy(before he exploded his 4th season), he was able to shoot 38-39% behind the line when he was healthy(3rd season he played with turf toe almost the whole season). It's quite possible if he gets a max he'll be better for the 76ers(if he adds a catch and shoot 3 ball) that's he'll be better for the majority of that contract for the 76ers then he currently is.

[SixthStreet]

I agree with all the posts suggesting it's foolish to try to negotiate with Butler. Give him a full 5 year max and be done with it. His impact on games supports it and his playoff fit is critical.

Additionally, I also think he is depressing his own value by not taking enough 3s. I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't actually become better over the course of the contract by modifying his shot selection.

[walker9]

Unfortunately it looks like Butler doesn't want to resign.

https://clutchpoints.com/sixers-news-jimmy-butler-will-angle-to-go-to-either-knicks-or-nets-with-clippers-in-play-too/?fbclid=IwAR3HAk4GIFB9Vnjt2SrgrndHwXsIIroFJCpsHTQGXeuDveBvZcV0PcS9QYk

[XtremeDunkz]

Unfortunately it looks like Butler doesn't want to resign.

https://clutchpoints.com/sixers-news-jimmy-butler-will-angle-to-go-to-either-knicks-or-nets-with-clippers-in-play-too/?fbclid=IwAR3HAk4GIFB9Vnjt2SrgrndHwXsIIroFJCpsHTQGXeuDveBvZcV0PcS9QYk

lol. Could you find a worse source?

this article is his "source"

http://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/how-will-76ers-handle-huge-summer-of-free-agency-four-scenarios-in-play/5gssrkamiapf1c7w73jhyo6x7

In the article it states this is possible if the Sixers are wary of committing to Butler for 5 years, which...duh.