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Markelle Fultz VIII: The Aftermath

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Re: Markelle Fultz VIII: The Aftermath 

Post#241 » by Kobblehead » Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:25 pm

76ciology wrote:Im a fan of Fultz. I believe he will be the best player on his draft. He is playing a lot better.

But not yet.

I don't even view it as a possibility that he can eclipse Donovan Mitchell. Instastars almost never get caught from behind. Even Jayson Tatum will have a hard time catching up to Mitchell.

Futlz gotta worry about being better than Bam Adebayo and Luke Kennard before he climbs to the top of the rookie class.
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Re: Markelle Fultz VIII: The Aftermath 

Post#242 » by 76ciology » Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:25 am

bball4life wrote:
76ciology wrote:Im a fan of Fultz. I believe he will be the best player on his draft. He is playing a lot better.

But not yet.


I can't imagine a scenario where this could ever happen. If you're basing this off the one good game he had this week then I guess why you could believe that but his overall numbers for this season are pretty bad, at least on offense.

Right now I think I could list 10 players I'd rather have from that draft.


Its way more than that one good game.

It’s based on the player he was coming out of college, the positive impact he was for the magic this season and the signs of him living up to this upside.

A lot of this lies on his 3pt shooting, and I think he will get there if he can sustain this base (one of the league’s mid range shooters already) and upward trajectory.

It will happen. Just wait.
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Re: Markelle Fultz VIII: The Aftermath 

Post#243 » by 76ciology » Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:29 am

Kobblehead wrote:
76ciology wrote:Im a fan of Fultz. I believe he will be the best player on his draft. He is playing a lot better.

But not yet.

I don't even view it as a possibility that he can eclipse Donovan Mitchell. Instastars almost never get caught from behind. Even Jayson Tatum will have a hard time catching up to Mitchell.

Futlz gotta worry about being better than Bam Adebayo and Luke Kennard before he climbs to the top of the rookie class.


Mitchell and Tatum are easy standards to eclipse. Both are more of chuckers than star caliber scorers. I also think Fultz is a better all around player than both of them right now, but there just a big gap on their scoring capabilities and most of this lies on Fultz being a better three point shooter. Which Im betting he will be in a matter of time.

But definitely he’s not there. Not even at Kennard or Adebayo level. But we all know how good Fultz can become if he lives up to his upside and there are positive signs that he will live up to it.
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Re: Markelle Fultz VIII: The Aftermath 

Post#244 » by HotelVitale » Sat Jan 11, 2020 3:59 pm

76ciology wrote:
bball4life wrote:
76ciology wrote:Im a fan of Fultz. I believe he will be the best player on his draft. He is playing a lot better. But not yet.
I can't imagine a scenario where this could ever happen. If you're basing this off the one good game he had this week then I guess why you could believe that but his overall numbers for this season are pretty bad, at least on offense. Right now I think I could list 10 players I'd rather have from that draft.
Its way more than that one good game. It’s based on the player he was coming out of college, the positive impact he was for the magic this season and the signs of him living up to this upside. A lot of this lies on his 3pt shooting, and I think he will get there if he can sustain this base (one of the league’s mid range shooters already) and upward trajectory. It will happen. Just wait.


I'd bet heavily against this, and give you odds. I've been following Fultz since UW and am sort of fascinated by him as a test case in people seeing different things in prospects; I'll skip the larger story but as of right now this boils down to the fact that he simply can't hit the type of shots that made him a potentially great prospect at UW so he simply cant be the type of player folks thought he would be, let alone a great version of that type of player. His draft-time upside was fully based on him being an elite pull-up shooter, and now he's not only not that but also greatly struggles to hit ANY shots outside of about 12 feet. As for his other skills, at the draft his driving and passing were 100% secondary skills, not the type of mega-elite ones that he could base a career on--they were just things that would help make him more dangerous combined with the threat of his jumper. He's trying to make a career off those things now, and the Magic are letting him play to all of his strengths (he gets the ball almost every time in transition and gets to run pn'r a lot), and to me it looks like the experiment isn't working. He can't create in the halfcourt consistently and he has to work really hard to get himself a basic scoring opportunity, and he mostly looks like a hustle/effort player who mostly doesn't do much and sometimes makes a couple nice plays in a row.

Overall he hasn't been good on the Magic, and I'm 100% of a mind that if he was a 2nd rounder d-league call-up the fanbase would have a 55-page thread making fun of him for getting big minutes. I don't think he's a joke or a disaster but I don't think he'd be playing 20+ minutes on this team if not for his history--and more importantly I have a really hard time seeing a path for him becoming a legit starter if his shot doesn't come back in a big way. Not a knock on him, it just makes no sense in my brain and I honestly don't get what other people are seeing or thinking.
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Re: Markelle Fultz VIII: The Aftermath 

Post#245 » by HotelVitale » Sat Jan 11, 2020 4:17 pm

76ciology wrote: A lot of this lies on his 3pt shooting, and I think he will get there if he can sustain this base (one of the league’s mid range shooters already) and upward trajectory.


Just noticed this detail; I don't like the idea of tearing down Fultz but this just seems like it's religious-level hope and clutching at straws. First Fultz has a decent % from midrange this year but it's not particularly good--40% from 18 ft to the 3pt line--but more importantly he almost never takes them. The sample size is exactly 45 shots, which is barely more than one per game (Magi have played 38 games so far). That means that a) the sample is extremely unreliable, since if he missed literally 3 more of those shoots he goes from a respectable 40% to a weak 33%; and b) the low volume shows that he can barely get shots off or isn't remotely comfortable with them. Having the ball in your hands all the time and operating primarily in that midrange area, and taking 1.18 shots per game from there? Not a good sign, especially if your plan for him being a big success relies on him being elite at that skill.

Some other difficult things for him as a shooter: Fultz was terrible from midrange all of last year, shot 25% from the 17 ft-3pt range. And he's shooting 35% on easier short jumpers from 10-15 ft this year. Plus his bad 3pt shooting #s. All that's not good, and it's certainly not something that constitutes a promising trajectory or foreshadows a return to elite/killer jump-shooting most folks assumed he had coming into the league.
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Re: Markelle Fultz VIII: The Aftermath 

Post#246 » by Kobblehead » Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:38 am

Come on man, Donovan Mitchell looks like a hall of fame lock right now. Tatum is a complete player budding into an all-around superstar in the coming years.

Fox is nasty. Kuzma, Collins, and Markkanen are nice.

He ain't catching these guys.

Besides, it's hard for me to believe Fultz can handle the pressure of being a great player in the league.

Where he's at now as a reserve G masquerading as a 5th starter is probably where he'll end up for the majority of his career. You can have all the talent in the world and still not pan out if your intangibles suck. Ask Michael Beasley, O.J. Mayo, Derrick Williams, Josh Jackson, etc.
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Re: Markelle Fultz VIII: The Aftermath 

Post#247 » by Eyeamok » Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:54 am

HotelVitale wrote:
76ciology wrote:
bball4life wrote: I can't imagine a scenario where this could ever happen. If you're basing this off the one good game he had this week then I guess why you could believe that but his overall numbers for this season are pretty bad, at least on offense. Right now I think I could list 10 players I'd rather have from that draft.
Its way more than that one good game. It’s based on the player he was coming out of college, the positive impact he was for the magic this season and the signs of him living up to this upside. A lot of this lies on his 3pt shooting, and I think he will get there if he can sustain this base (one of the league’s mid range shooters already) and upward trajectory. It will happen. Just wait.


I'd bet heavily against this, and give you odds. I've been following Fultz since UW and am sort of fascinated by him as a test case in people seeing different things in prospects; I'll skip the larger story but as of right now this boils down to the fact that he simply can't hit the type of shots that made him a potentially great prospect at UW so he simply cant be the type of player folks thought he would be, let alone a great version of that type of player. His draft-time upside was fully based on him being an elite pull-up shooter, and now he's not only not that but also greatly struggles to hit ANY shots outside of about 12 feet. As for his other skills, at the draft his driving and passing were 100% secondary skills, not the type of mega-elite ones that he could base a career on--they were just things that would help make him more dangerous combined with the threat of his jumper. He's trying to make a career off those things now, and the Magic are letting him play to all of his strengths (he gets the ball almost every time in transition and gets to run pn'r a lot), and to me it looks like the experiment isn't working. He can't create in the halfcourt consistently and he has to work really hard to get himself a basic scoring opportunity, and he mostly looks like a hustle/effort player who mostly doesn't do much and sometimes makes a couple nice plays in a row.

Overall he hasn't been good on the Magic, and I'm 100% of a mind that if he was a 2nd rounder d-league call-up the fanbase would have a 55-page thread making fun of him for getting big minutes. I don't think he's a joke or a disaster but I don't think he'd be playing 20+ minutes on this team if not for his history--and more importantly I have a really hard time seeing a path for him becoming a legit starter if his shot doesn't come back in a big way. Not a knock on him, it just makes no sense in my brain and I honestly don't get what other people are seeing or thinking.


Nice take. What did you think of him coming out of college before the 76ers drafted him? draft? And did you have any thoughts on Matisse before he was drafted.
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Re: Markelle Fultz VIII: The Aftermath 

Post#248 » by eagereyez » Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:30 am

HotelVitale wrote:
76ciology wrote: A lot of this lies on his 3pt shooting, and I think he will get there if he can sustain this base (one of the league’s mid range shooters already) and upward trajectory.


Just noticed this detail; I don't like the idea of tearing down Fultz but this just seems like it's religious-level hope and clutching at straws. First Fultz has a decent % from midrange this year but it's not particularly good--40% from 18 ft to the 3pt line--but more importantly he almost never takes them. The sample size is exactly 45 shots, which is barely more than one per game (Magi have played 38 games so far). That means that a) the sample is extremely unreliable, since if he missed literally 3 more of those shoots he goes from a respectable 40% to a weak 33%; and b) the low volume shows that he can barely get shots off or isn't remotely comfortable with them. Having the ball in your hands all the time and operating primarily in that midrange area, and taking 1.18 shots per game from there? Not a good sign, especially if your plan for him being a big success relies on him being elite at that skill.

Some other difficult things for him as a shooter: Fultz was terrible from midrange all of last year, shot 25% from the 17 ft-3pt range. And he's shooting 35% on easier short jumpers from 10-15 ft this year. Plus his bad 3pt shooting #s. All that's not good, and it's certainly not something that constitutes a promising trajectory or foreshadows a return to elite/killer jump-shooting most folks assumed he had coming into the league.


You are busting out the stats without acknowledging the context. Fultz' shot was broken last year - he completely lost the ability to shoot for whatever reason. His FT form changed from shot to shot, which is awful for an NBA player. He shot 53% from the line his first two seasons, but has improved that to 74% this year. He is still a bad player, but the progress he has made from his first two seasons is pretty remarkable. He is basically playing at Lonzo Ball's level, despite having to spend his first 2 years relearning how to shoot. And Fultz is still really young - he was the youngest player in his draft class, like Ingram. He has a lot more room for growth than other 3rd year players, due to his age and circumstances.

Now I'm not saying he will for sure become a star or anything. His case is out of sample - we've never seen a player go through the same thing as Fultz. I'm still rooting for him though, and I do think he has the potential to be very good in 2-4 years.
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Re: Markelle Fultz VIII: The Aftermath 

Post#249 » by 76ciology » Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:55 am

Magic plays at their best when Fultz is on court, and you can see this with his on vs off court NetRtg and Ortg. And this is not a small sample size thing when he has one of the highest minutes played in their roster

His shot shows an improvement after the very steep fall in his rookie year.

Factor that and his innate physical tools, skillset and age. For me, he’s almost the perfect PG in today’s game. With a chip on his shoulder, I think he’ll work hard to sustain the uptrend trajectory. Thus, I think he can be a very good player.

But right now, he’s not there. Only 50%TS% and still a bad 3pt shooter with low volume.
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Re: Markelle Fultz VIII: The Aftermath 

Post#250 » by HotelVitale » Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:17 pm

Eyeamok wrote: Nice take. What did you think of him coming out of college before the 76ers drafted him? draft? And did you have any thoughts on Matisse before he was drafted.
I spent a lot of time on the draft boards (and on our 76ers draft thread) trying to dull down hype on Fultz but was still a fan in general of his. I basically thought that people were way too convinced he would be amazing because of his college numbers, and that those #s were way too reliant on tough shots (fadeaway pull-ups mostly) and him sort of messing around beacuse he had the ball in his hands so much. Also thought was overrated as an athlete and passer based on a few highlights rather than how he could consistently apply those skills in games. I just had a general feeling that he couldn't do what he did in college in the NBA, and that he would have a struggle ahead of him adapting to NBA defenses and speed.

But I also thought he was a very good prospect, great length and a varied skillset that could develop into an excellent pn'r guy and a genuine 3-level scorer. A few of us spilled a lot of ink over how to rate him, and I ended up with him firmly in my top 3 (some other people on the Sixers thread that also de-hyped him had him way lower, like #10 overall). My argument for him as the #1 overall pick was that he could end up being sort of like Brandon Roy, who was an elite midrange shooter and very good on off-the-dribble 3s, and could use change of speeds and the threat of his shoot to set up his athleticism and passing skills. Not a carbon copy obviously, but someone who was primarily a big shooting threat off the bounce (or pn'r) and could exploit you if you overplayed him or got lazy on defense.

About Thybulle, once the Process ended I stopped doing deep draft dives, especially after the Lakers pick passed. I watched a few videos on him and obviously saw the awesome defensive shiftiness and his potential fit for us, but I don't think I felt strongly about him. I find that I have to really dig deeply into players and watch whole games to get an honest estimate about how they'll translate, didn't spend enough time with Thybulle to get that read.
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Re: Markelle Fultz VIII: The Aftermath 

Post#251 » by Eyeamok » Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:20 pm

HotelVitale wrote:
Eyeamok wrote: Nice take. What did you think of him coming out of college before the 76ers drafted him? draft? And did you have any thoughts on Matisse before he was drafted.
I spent a lot of time on the draft boards (and on our 76ers draft thread) trying to dull down hype on Fultz but was still a fan in general of his. I basically thought that people were way too convinced he would be amazing because of his college numbers, and that those #s were way too reliant on tough shots (fadeaway pull-ups mostly) and him sort of messing around beacuse he had the ball in his hands so much. Also thought was overrated as an athlete and passer based on a few highlights rather than how he could consistently apply those skills in games. I just had a general feeling that he couldn't do what he did in college in the NBA, and that he would have a struggle ahead of him adapting to NBA defenses and speed.

But I also thought he was a very good prospect, great length and a varied skillset that could develop into an excellent pn'r guy and a genuine 3-level scorer. A few of us spilled a lot of ink over how to rate him, and I ended up with him firmly in my top 3 (some other people on the Sixers thread that also de-hyped him had him way lower, like #10 overall). My argument for him as the #1 overall pick was that he could end up being sort of like Brandon Roy, who was an elite midrange shooter and very good on off-the-dribble 3s, and could use change of speeds and the threat of his shoot to set up his athleticism and passing skills. Not a carbon copy obviously, but someone who was primarily a big shooting threat off the bounce (or pn'r) and could exploit you if you overplayed him or got lazy on defense.

About Thybulle, once the Process ended I stopped doing deep draft dives, especially after the Lakers pick passed. I watched a few videos on him and obviously saw the awesome defensive shiftiness and his potential fit for us, but I don't think I felt strongly about him. I find that I have to really dig deeply into players and watch whole games to get an honest estimate about how they'll translate, didn't spend enough time with Thybulle to get that read.


Thanks.
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Re: Markelle Fultz VIII: The Aftermath 

Post#252 » by HotelVitale » Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:38 pm

eagereyez wrote: You are busting out the stats without acknowledging the context. Fultz' shot was broken last year - he completely lost the ability to shoot for whatever reason. His FT form changed from shot to shot, which is awful for an NBA player. He shot 53% from the line his first two seasons, but has improved that to 74% this year. He is still a bad player, but the progress he has made from his first two seasons is pretty remarkable. He is basically playing at Lonzo Ball's level, despite having to spend his first 2 years relearning how to shoot. And Fultz is still really young - he was the youngest player in his draft class, like Ingram. He has a lot more room for growth than other 3rd year players, due to his age and circumstances. Now I'm not saying he will for sure become a star or anything. His case is out of sample - we've never seen a player go through the same thing as Fultz. I'm still rooting for him though, and I do think he has the potential to be very good in 2-4 years.

I don't want to make this a pro-Kelle no-Kelle thing, so I'll just say this: if he can recover a very good off-the-bounce shot, then sure he has all the potential in the world. If however it doesn't become something that can be his main tool--not just decent but a really effective weapon--then I don't see a path for him becoming a particularly good starter, let alone a star. I believe he'll get better and start hitting more shots in the 10-20 ft range, but I don't think the progress has been that promising so far (especially the fact that he doesn't take those shots much); if I had to bet at even odds, I'd comfortably bet on him failing to regain enough of a shot that he becomes a potential star again. And he's just not an ace driver or pure point or anything compared to other NBA guys to be a big time player without that shot. The NBA is an incredibly hard league to be good in: you don't just have to be able to do some things effectively, you have to be able to do them better than all but about 50 guards in the world, and most guys already have pretty strong size/skills/athleticism packages that they can't afford to lose a major skill and still be at the top of the heap.

For people citing his on/off and stuff, you have to keep in mind that an aging DJ Augustin is the only other PG on the team, and that Fultz plays really really hard. He's already going 110% on both ends out there, and being a big guard with a handle who puts in work gets you pretty good results. To go from 'hustle player who does just enough to pull his weight' to 'legitimately good player who could be a star' is a massive gap, and it's not just about a few tweaks here and there.
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Re: Markelle Fultz VIII: The Aftermath 

Post#253 » by rzzzzz » Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:45 pm

is it fair to say that Markelle rallied the Magic to edge the Lakers for their first loss at Staples in 10 games?
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Re: Markelle Fultz VIII: The Aftermath 

Post#254 » by Kobblehead » Thu Jan 16, 2020 4:29 pm

Good performance, but kind of a flukey game where a bunch of scrubs and jags played well in. Hard to know what to make of it.

Fultz with 21
Iwundu with 19
Cook with 22
Daniels with 17
Pope with 17

I want to see Fultz put up performances like this when actual stars are on their A game and he looks to be their peer. Otherwise, it feels like we should just write it off as an aberration.
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Re: Markelle Fultz VIII: The Aftermath 

Post#255 » by agiaco » Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:07 pm

Dude had a triple double. He's already proving doubters wrong. Sucks to say.
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Re: Markelle Fultz VIII: The Aftermath 

Post#256 » by Mik317 » Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:20 pm

agiaco wrote:Dude had a triple double. He's already proving doubters wrong. Sucks to say.

he had one here too.

I am glad he is doing well but until he **** his shot; his ceiling is limited.
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Re: Markelle Fultz VIII: The Aftermath 

Post#257 » by thenbaman » Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:47 pm

Can i get a glass of that koolaid your all drinking,lol
he won't be in the nba in a couple of years.
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Re: Markelle Fultz VIII: The Aftermath 

Post#258 » by Kobblehead » Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:55 pm

Sticking in the league is hard and requires strong mental resolve so I can see why you'd say that.

That said, him having a productive season this year gives him something to build off of. If he progresses and becomes even more productive next year (14-16 ppg), there's no question he'll stick.

Orlando is a great spot for him in that they have a ton of minutes available at G to develop him and they're not an incompetent basement dwelling team. So they present him quality minutes to develop in. I want to see Josh Jackson and Dennis Smith land in a spot like that, too.
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Re: Markelle Fultz VIII: The Aftermath 

Post#259 » by agiaco » Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:00 pm

thenbaman wrote:Can i get a glass of that koolaid your all drinking,lol
he won't be in the nba in a couple of years.


Watch him play. Some of his moves and finishes last night were top-tier. Y'all can clown on him but he's turning things around.
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Re: Markelle Fultz VIII: The Aftermath 

Post#260 » by Negrodamus » Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:01 pm

He was one of, if not the best passers in that draft, especially out of a pick and roll. His defense has been lightyears better than at UW. He's huge with elite length for his position. He can get anywhere on the floor and is extremely athletic.

He'll be in the league for a long time, but his lack of a shot is going to put a ceiling on his star potential.

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