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Around the League Discussion - 2018-2019 (Playoffs)

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Re: Around the League Discussion - 2018-2019 (Playoffs) 

Post#861 » by Sixerscan » Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:03 pm

Kobblehead wrote:
Sixerscan wrote:The whitewashing of Carter’s career in recent years has been sort of amazing actually. It’s a great example of how being polished with the media can help your legacy. When I think of guys that didn’t get the most out of their talents (he was easily the most talented of these 3) he’s on Mount Rushmore.

I don't see a good argument for Carter being on that. There are plenty of guys from his generation, alone, that were highly talented and achieved way less than Vince Carter.

Stephon Marbury, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Tracy McGrady and Steve Francis. To name a few.


I would definitely put TMac on there too. I don’t think any of those other guys had Vince’s talent. Vince should have had a stretch where he was arguably the best player in the game and he didn’t even ever make a first team all NBA or be the guy on a team that won 50 games.
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Re: Around the League Discussion - 2018-2019 (Playoffs) 

Post#862 » by Kobblehead » Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:28 pm

Sixerscan wrote:I would definitely put TMac on there too. I don’t think any of those other guys had Vince’s talent. Vince should have had a stretch where he was arguably the best player in the game and he didn’t even ever make a first team all NBA or be the guy on a team that won 50 games.


He tore his knee to shreds in 2002 and was thrown off that trajectory of possible best player in the game.

His rebound run with New Jersey is a testament to his greatness and a glimpse of what could of been regarding his success rate in the postseason.
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Re: Around the League Discussion - 2018-2019 (Playoffs) 

Post#863 » by Sixerscan » Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:21 pm

He had arthroscopic surgery for some jumpers knee I don’t remember that being a huge deal. Obviously surgery is surgery but this wasn’t Nique coming back from a torn Achilles.

The only reason there was a “rebound” with the Nets was because he quit on the Raptors in a way that would make Anthony Davis blush.
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Re: Around the League Discussion - 2018-2019 (Playoffs) 

Post#864 » by Kobblehead » Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:34 pm

I'm not arguing that Carter was a consummate pro or ultra successful. Just that he was more "real games-relevant" than McGrady and Anthony.
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Re: Around the League Discussion - 2018-2019 (Playoffs) 

Post#865 » by 76ciology » Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:23 am

Regarding 538’s team projections..

So they project the Rockets to be the best team in the west while the Clips to underperform.

Rockets made it far last season. Westbrook over the corpse of CP3 is a big upgrade. Now teams have to deal with 48 mins of relentless attacks of top tier star guards.

They project the Clips to have bad defense, which i suspect is because of their poor center rotation.
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Re: Around the League Discussion - 2018-2019 (Playoffs) 

Post#866 » by Kobblehead » Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:12 am

They're probably factoring in how much the regular season means to Westbrook and Harden in terms of stats accumulation. I wouldn't be surprised if the Rockets won 60+ games in the regular season and then got bounced in the semifinals.
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Re: Around the League Discussion - 2018-2019 (Playoffs) 

Post#867 » by 76ciology » Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:19 am

Kobblehead wrote:They're probably factoring in how much the regular season means to Westbrook and Harden in terms of stats accumulation. I wouldn't be surprised if the Rockets won 60+ games in the regular season and then got bounced in the semifinals.


Highest in the west to make it to the finals, second is the Lakers at 18%. Clippers is only at 5%.
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Re: Around the League Discussion - 2018-2019 (Playoffs) 

Post#868 » by ProcessDoctor » Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:38 am

76ciology wrote:Regarding 538’s team projections..

So they project the Rockets to be the best team in the west while the Clips to underperform.

Rockets made it far last season. Westbrook over the corpse of CP3 is a big upgrade. Now teams have to deal with 48 mins of relentless attacks of top tier star guards.

They project the Clips to have bad defense, which i suspect is because of their poor center rotation.


I think they're also considering PG13 to be out for a considerable amount of time. I think that, in addition to Kawhi's load management, will considerably lessen their win total/ability to hold HCA and advance deep in the playoffs.
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Re: Around the League Discussion - 2018-2019 (Playoffs) 

Post#869 » by Kobblehead » Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:14 pm

76ciology wrote:They project the Clips to have bad defense, which i suspect is because of their poor center rotation.


I have a hard time rationalizing that prediction.

A defense locking down on the wing with Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Moe Harkless and Patrick Beverley has little to no chance of being bad, regardless of who's playing in the paint. And since when is Montrez Harrell a bad defender, in the first place? Also, 1st round pick Mfiondu Kabengele projects very well on the defensive end.
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Re: Around the League Discussion - 2018-2019 (Playoffs) 

Post#870 » by Sixerscan » Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:36 pm

ProcessDoctor wrote:
76ciology wrote:Regarding 538’s team projections..

So they project the Rockets to be the best team in the west while the Clips to underperform.

Rockets made it far last season. Westbrook over the corpse of CP3 is a big upgrade. Now teams have to deal with 48 mins of relentless attacks of top tier star guards.

They project the Clips to have bad defense, which i suspect is because of their poor center rotation.


I think they're also considering PG13 to be out for a considerable amount of time. I think that, in addition to Kawhi's load management, will considerably lessen their win total/ability to hold HCA and advance deep in the playoffs.


Yeah with their full strength rotation they have them winning 54 games, and with George in the lineup the defense is above average.

Their 3-15 gets pretty badly overrated by people though.

Then again I've also seen stuff from 538 saying that Westbrook might be the most overrated player by the numbers in the league. I think its just supposed to be a fun exercise rather than some sort of predictive model you should bet on (besides the Sixers being the best of course that's just science).
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Re: Around the League Discussion - 2018-2019 (Playoffs) 

Post#871 » by Kobblehead » Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:05 pm

Sixerscan wrote:Their 3-15 gets pretty badly overrated though.


What specific things about their supporting class do you have a problem with?
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Re: Around the League Discussion - 2018-2019 (Playoffs) 

Post#872 » by Sixerscan » Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:18 pm

Kobblehead wrote:
Sixerscan wrote:Their 3-15 gets pretty badly overrated though.


What specific things about their supporting class do you have a problem with?


3-15 isn't it as much as many of the people that are going to fill out the rotation in the playoffs have various weakness that can get exposed in a high level series. They'll force Williams to defend, Beverely to create, Shamet to cover bigger wings, Zubac to defend in space, Harrell to cover guys that are a lot bigger than him. I don't think they've done a good job filling out the roster non obvious mismatches, and they're gonna have to play with more than one of them on the court pretty much at all times. There’s other stuff (like not really having a point guard) but that’s my biggest high level concern.

Like I've said before, I expect them to make a trade at some point.
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Re: Around the League Discussion - 2018-2019 (Playoffs) 

Post#873 » by Kobblehead » Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:02 pm

Aren't they defensively ironclad at SG-SF-PF with the combination of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Moe Harkless and JaMychal Green?

I actually think their small Gs will be used much more situationally this year. When they need creation, Williams will be out there. When they need setshooting, Shamet will be out there. When they need defense, Beverley will be out there.

The Clippers will be a very F-centric team that takes advantage of their size on the wing.
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Re: Around the League Discussion - 2018-2019 (Playoffs) 

Post#874 » by Sixerscan » Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:37 pm

Well the issue is this isn’t football, they “need” offense and defense on the court at all times in the playoffs and when you have multiple guys on the court at all times that have obvious holes it can get exposed when you play another good team for two weeks straight.
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Re: Around the League Discussion - 2018-2019 (Playoffs) 

Post#875 » by Kobblehead » Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:59 pm

Sixerscan wrote:Well the issue is this isn’t football, they “need” offense and defense on the court at all times in the playoffs and when you have multiple guys on the court at all times that have obvious holes it can get exposed when you play another good team for two weeks straight.


You realize they have the 2 best two-way players in the game, right?

Why are you so demanding of them having complete, hole-less players all throughout their rotation? No team in the NBA has that. Nor does any team in NBA history.
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Re: Around the League Discussion - 2018-2019 (Playoffs) 

Post#876 » by Sixerscan » Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:03 pm

I would say most contenders have more than they do. Even the Lakers are more guys that aren’t obvious matchup issues in a playoff setting. And the Lakers aren’t talked about as a super deep team the way the clippers are.

Yes I’m aware they have Kawhi and Paul George. Hence me just saying their 3-15 is overrated. I feel like a lot of people are looking at them with this compartmentalized “football” mentality rather than how it actually works.

Like I said, this is solvable by a trade.
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Re: Around the League Discussion - 2018-2019 (Playoffs) 

Post#877 » by Kobblehead » Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:16 pm

Sixerscan wrote:I would say most contenders have more than they do. Even the Lakers are more guys that aren’t obvious matchup issues in a playoff setting.


Nah, you can do the same thing to the Lakers that you just did to the Clippers.

- force Rondo to shoot
- force Green to dribble
- force Cousins to defend in space
- force Kuzma to defend, period
- force Bradley to create

Sixerscan wrote:Yes I’m aware they have Kawhi and Paul George. Hence me just saying their 3-15 is overrated. I feel like a lot of people are looking at them with this compartmentalized “football” mentality rather than how it actually works.


I'm not quite understanding this point.
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Re: Around the League Discussion - 2018-2019 (Playoffs) 

Post#878 » by Sixerscan » Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:30 pm

Kobblehead wrote:
Sixerscan wrote:I would say most contenders have more than they do. Even the Lakers are more guys that aren’t obvious matchup issues in a playoff setting.


Nah, you can do the same thing to the Lakers that you just did to the Clippers.

- force Rondo to shoot
- force Green to dribble
- force Cousins to defend in space
- force Kuzma to defend, period
- force Bradley to create

Sixerscan wrote:Yes I’m aware they have Kawhi and Paul George. Hence me just saying their 3-15 is overrated. I feel like a lot of people are looking at them with this compartmentalized “football” mentality rather than how it actually works.


I'm not quite understanding this point.


The Clippers are talked about as this super deep team. All of their players have real flaws after the top 2 that can rear their heads in a playoff setting. Hence overrated.

Green is a very capable two way player. Getting into some as discrete as the dribbling of an off ball player is missing the point. Beverley is a point guard that can’t really play point guard or create. Shamet is a 2 guard that can’t cover wings. Williams can’t cover anyone, isn’t a point guard and has mountains of data that his stuff doesn’t work in the playoffs against length. Harkless is a non factor on offense.

Either way, people (outside of like bleacher report photoshops) don’t talk about the Lakers like they are this super deep team the way they do the Clippers. In fact I think most people agree that the Lakers are an example of a pretty shallow team after their top 2.

Overrated doesn’t mean they are bad.
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Re: Around the League Discussion - 2018-2019 (Playoffs) 

Post#879 » by Kobblehead » Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:43 pm

Sixerscan wrote:Green is a very capable two way player. Getting into some as discrete as the dribbling of an off ball player is missing the point. Beverley is a point guard that can’t really play point guard or create.

This seems contradictory.

The only reason Patrick Beverley is a "point guard" is because he's 6'1". He's actually the same on-court player as Danny Green. A defensive player that plays off the ball and hits setshots.
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Re: Around the League Discussion - 2018-2019 (Playoffs) 

Post#880 » by Kobblehead » Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:47 pm

Sixerscan wrote:All of their players have real flaws after the top 2 that can rear their heads in a playoff setting. Hence overrated.

This feels overly dramatic.

Do we really think a team is going to be able to ball deny two hall of famers plus Lou Williams and force the Clippers to keep Beverely on the ball, thus determining the outcome of a playoff series?

The Clippers will win or lose on the performances of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Everything else is peanuts in relevance.

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