The Ben Simmons Megathread - Part III

XDevilBoiX · Post #1781 » by **XDevilBoiX** » Sun Dec 15, 2019 3:25 pm

Fischella wrote:With the sheer amount of candidates (East is loaded with guys) if Philadelphia let's say can only get 2 All Stars, who has had the better year and/or is the better player, Simmons or Harris?

It's a tough one

Harris has been outplaying Ben lately and deserves to go. Ben stats has been down this year, I don’t see Ben making it.

Kobblehead · Post #1782 » by **Kobblehead** » Sun Dec 15, 2019 4:02 pm

76ciology wrote:Downgrade based on what metric? 2K rating system?

My opinion:
- advanced plus/minus metrics are meaningless
- "contributions to winning basketball" is a meaningless phrase

I remember some of the same people ignoring talent and going off of advanced plus/minus metrics when they argued for us trading for Mirotic instead of Harris.

Or some hipster bloggers that said we were a better team with Covington/Saric instead of Jimmy Butler.

Funny how all of Harris advanced plus/minus metrics and contributions to winning basketball materialized once he came onto the Sixers.

Needle moving talent will ALWAYS trump role players with advanced plus minus metrics.

Josh Richardson is a nice two-way player capable of providing mid-volume scoring. If you can leverage him into getting a needle-moving player capable of providing star production, you do that all day, IMO.

TTP · Post #1783 » by **TTP** » Sun Dec 15, 2019 7:41 pm

What needle is DLo moving? The Warriors are 2-13 when he plays and 8.9 points worse when he’s on the floor.

TTP · Post #1784 » by **TTP** » Sun Dec 15, 2019 7:47 pm

Also you guys that want to replace Ben with DLo because you think Ben will disappear in the playoffs might want to consider that the Nets were -42.5 with DLo on the floor vs us last postseason. That’s not a typo. He had a 44.6 TS% that series.

Bum Adebayo · Great takes since 2024-04-20

Nobody who knows about basketball would consider trading Ben for 'Bustello. We want to get better, not worse.

Post #1786 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Sun Dec 15, 2019 8:30 pm

Needle moving is a great meaningless phrase backed up by ignoring stats

Post #1787 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Sun Dec 15, 2019 8:31 pm

Apologies for my lack of big font all caps. I assume my arguments don’t need it.

agiaco · Post #1788 » by **agiaco** » Sun Dec 15, 2019 8:54 pm

It's embarrassing to even bring up trading Simmons for Russell.

Kobblehead · Post #1789 » by **Kobblehead** » Sun Dec 15, 2019 9:39 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:Needle moving is a great meaningless phrase backed up by ignoring stats

Obsessing over advanced plus/minus metrics lead you astray on the Tobias Harris trade reaction, no? You were overly critical and pretty offbase, in hindsight. You should have put your faith in talent and scoring production.

Post #1790 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Sun Dec 15, 2019 9:55 pm

Kobblehead wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:Needle moving is a great meaningless phrase backed up by ignoring stats

Obsessing over advanced plus/minus metrics lead you astray on the Tobias Harris trade reaction, no? You were overly critical and pretty offbase, in hindsight. You should have put your faith in talent and scoring production.

Heh. That is cute. Completely doesn't address the criticism of the empty phrase quoted. But if I get a few hours I will call up what you have been offbase on.

And no, I would much rather have what was given up for him. 2 1sts and Shamet would have done the team much better, and the cap space would have been an added bonus. Philly definitely lost that trade.

Kobblehead · Post #1791 » by **Kobblehead** » Sun Dec 15, 2019 10:08 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:Heh. That is cute. Completely doesn't address the criticism of the empty phrase quoted. But if I get a few hours I will call up what you have been offbase on.

And no, I would much rather have what was given up for him. 2 1sts and Shamet would have done the team much better, and the cap space would have been an added bonus. Philly definitely lost that trade.

Needle movers are uber talented players that can provide scoring production. Which is exactly what D'Angelo Russell is. The meaningless advanced plus/minus metrics and mythical winning contributions will come around once he gets in the right situation just like they did with Tobias Harris.

Yeah, because a replacement level rotation player like Landry Shamet and late 20s 1st round picks (that we probably would have sold or traded anyway) are worth more than a fringe allstar like Tobias Harris?

Post #1792 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Sun Dec 15, 2019 10:15 pm

Kobblehead wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:Heh. That is cute. Completely doesn't address the criticism of the empty phrase quoted. But if I get a few hours I will call up what you have been offbase on.

And no, I would much rather have what was given up for him. 2 1sts and Shamet would have done the team much better, and the cap space would have been an added bonus. Philly definitely lost that trade.

Needle movers are uber talented players that can provide scoring production. Which is exactly what D'Angelo Russell is. The meaningless advanced plus/minus metrics and mythical winning contributions will come around once he gets in the right situation just like they did with Tobias Harris.

Yeah, because a replacement level rotation player like Landry Shamet and late 20s 1st round picks (that we probably would have sold or traded anyway) are worth more than a fringe allstar like Tobias Harris?

Apparently the Nets weren't it. Apparently GS isn't it. Apparently LAL wasn't it. I sure hope Russell can find his spot to move that needle soon and justify the credit you are giving him that he hasn't yet deserved.

As for Tobias, his advanced stats are pretty much the same. Last year he was ranked 11th. This year he has crept up to 6th... but in small sample off a defense that is ranked 4th in the league among all sf (behind only Kawhi, Jimmy and Lebron, and in front of players like PG).

I don't think Tobias is the 4th best defender in the league among sf's (not hard to see defensive on off getting conflated in small samples), which means he is still the same 8th-12th best sf out there. That said, he is better at defense than Dlo, lol.

Kobblehead · Post #1793 » by **Kobblehead** » Sun Dec 15, 2019 10:22 pm

I'm not even that big a Dlo fan. I'm just calling a spade a spade and stating the obvious that he's a better basketball talent than Josh Richardson and if they were to hypothetically swap places, it would substantially raise the ceiling of this team.

Post #1794 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Mon Dec 16, 2019 12:22 am

Cool. Now we all know your opinion, and that it is backed by ____ {the label needle mover/ no statistical basis}____.

Kobblehead · Post #1795 » by **Kobblehead** » Mon Dec 16, 2019 12:37 am

HartfordWhalers wrote:Cool. Now we all know your opinion, and that it is backed by ____ {the label needle mover/ no statistical basis}____.

I don't need advanced plus/minus metrics to shape my opinion, I have talent, production, and accolades on my side of the argument.

Josh Richardson:
- 247th recruit in his class
- 9.2 ppg at Tennessee
- 12.3 ppg in the NBA
- no accolades

D'Angelo Russell:
- 16th recruit in his class
- 19.3 ppg at Ohio State
- 16.8 ppg in the NBA
- all-rookie team
- allstar appearance

Don't let convoluted, virtually meaningless metrics steer you away from the obvious.

VDT · Post #1796 » by **VDT** » Mon Dec 16, 2019 1:48 am

Russell is more like very poor man's Harden, a no defense chucker who, unlike Harden, shouldnt have the ball too much if you want to be good. As such his best fit is on bad teams. Every one of his former teams moved him the moment they tried to take the next step.

Apart from that comparing players without comparing their contracts doesnt make sense. Richardson and his contract have a place in a title team while Russell and his contract, generally speaking, no. Similarly the problem with Harris is that we gave the Clippers too much and now we are also paying Harris too much. If you had told people two years ago that our free cap space would go to Harris and Horford people here would be livid.

tsmith · Post #1797 » by **tsmith** » Mon Dec 16, 2019 1:50 am

Kobblehead wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:Cool. Now we all know your opinion, and that it is backed by ____ {the label needle mover/ no statistical basis}____.

I don't need advanced plus/minus metrics to shape my opinion, I have talent, production, and accolades on my side of the argument.

Josh Richardson:
- 247th recruit in his class
- 9.2 ppg at Tennessee
- 12.3 ppg in the NBA
- no accolades

D'Angelo Russell:
- 16th recruit in his class
- 19.3 ppg at Ohio State
- 16.8 ppg in the NBA
- all-rookie team
- allstar appearance

Don't let convoluted, virtually meaningless metrics steer you away from the obvious.

This is rich coming from the guy who sets the line of production at 14 points per 36.

Bum Adebayo · Great takes since 2024-04-20

lol why would it matter how a player was ranked out of high school? remind us how was Jimmy Butler ranked again? that is the definition of meaningless.

Post #1799 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Mon Dec 16, 2019 2:58 am

So, 12.3 ppg with good defense is worse than a less efficient 16.8 ppg with bad defense? That seems clearly wrong, but at least it is something. Obviously I am ignoring the absurdity of ciing high school stats.

Kobblehead · Post #1800 » by **Kobblehead** » Mon Dec 16, 2019 3:57 am

Bum Adebayo wrote:lol why would it matter how a player was ranked out of high school? remind us how was Jimmy Butler ranked again? that is the definition of meaningless.

Just another way of showing how Russell has been a far more talented and productive player than Richardson at every single level, even dating back to when they were playing playstation 3.

Russell in his pre-prime is better than Richardson in his current peak form.