The Fire Elton Thread

[Sixerscan]

Maybe Carsen Edwards can play with PJ Dozier and Demetrius Jackson on our summer league team in a few years.

[FlyingArrow]

Hey, that's up to you man. I'm a 40 year draftnik. I take the draft seriously, but I'm not going to lose any sleep over some GD 2nd round picks. Especially, when I only expected him to use 2 of them, at the most, and he traded one of them for 3 more future 2nds.

I missed this. I thought it was 1 for 1 future 2nd. Nice!

[Ben]

If he was forced to stay under the luxury tax this year, then free agency was amazing. Grade: A. If he had the option to go up to the apron and didn't take it then he made us a worse team. Grade: B. Getting Horford and Richardson to replace JJ and Jimmy is better for the money, but overall I would have rather kept JJ and Jimmy and been over the cap with an extra $13 m for free agents from the MLE/BAE.

OK, this is interesting, so play it out if you will: let's say the team had kept JJ and Jimmy with the contracts that they received this offseason (and also Tobi). Knowing what else has happened, build your best hypothetical team. Even though nothing can be done to change anything, I kind of like this kind of counterfactual.

[76ciology]

He knows basketball and he has supporting guys who knows numbers. And he is rich enough to be bothered by job security.

Think of it. If kawhi’s shot didnt fall and we made it to the finals, he would have won EOY.

And after Jimmy left, the Horford addition looks like a stroke of genius. With a duo big and duo wing set-up that will make everyone’s life easier. Not only that Horford and Biid are 2 of the best centers who can defend Giannis. If Kawhi leaves and if we can make Giannis’ life tough whenever he faces us, it’s in our favor to make it to the finals.

And not to mention, Josh Richardson is no throw away. He is a better fit now and he could be better than Jimmy in 3 years.

[FlyingArrow]

If he was forced to stay under the luxury tax this year, then free agency was amazing. Grade: A. If he had the option to go up to the apron and didn't take it then he made us a worse team. Grade: B. Getting Horford and Richardson to replace JJ and Jimmy is better for the money, but overall I would have rather kept JJ and Jimmy and been over the cap with an extra $13 m for free agents from the MLE/BAE.

OK, this is interesting, so play it out if you will: let's say the team had kept JJ and Jimmy with the contracts that they received this offseason (and also Tobi). Knowing what else has happened, build your best hypothetical team. Even though nothing can be done to change anything, I kind of like this kind of counterfactual.

I pretty much did that here:
viewtopic.php?p=76385466#p76385466

End result was:
Ben Simmons / BAE / Veteran Minimum
JJ Redick / Zhaire Smith / Shake Milton
Jimmy Butler / Mike Scott / 2nd Rd Pick (33,34,44,54?)
Tobias Harris / 1st Rd Pick 24 / Jonah Bolden
Joel Embiid / MLE / Boban Marjanovic

But let's assume we aren't changing what happened with the draft. We'll keep JJ/Jimmy instead of getting Horford/JRich. But we have Thybulle and no decent 2nd round pick. But we get Ennis back for the minimum (wasn't expecting that). Also assume Zhaire, Shake, and Thybulle are all 3rd string.

Mike Scott and Boban were both less than half a million more than I budgeted. Ennis' minimum is more than the rookie minimum I budgeted for a 2nd rd pick. And since Shake signed a 4yr contract that takes up part of the MLE/BAE. MLE+BAE is about $13M, but we end up probably with only $9M remaining under the apron to fill those last 3 slots. O'Quinn and Neto can be minimums and use the rest (MLE) on a legit 6th man. Not sure who that would be. If there's another decent big man available for the minimum, maybe we sign him and don't bring back Boban. That would add another million or so to the budget for the 6th man. Essentially, I like JJ+Jimmy+good 6th man better than Horford+JRich+current bench.

Ben Simmons / Neto / Shake Milton
JJ Redick / Good ($7-9M) 6th man / Zhaire Smith
Jimmy Butler / James Ennis / Thybulle
Tobias Harris / Mike Scott / Jonah Bolden
Joel Embiid / O'Quinn / Boban Marjanovic

Have the Sixers or Jimmy confirmed either way on whether he was actually offered the full 5yr max? If he was the one saying no, we couldn't have done this scenario anyway. At any rate, I'm really impressed with what we have while working under the cap.

[FlyingArrow]

Oh - I forgot that Tobias signed for a couple million less than the max. I had budgeted for the full max. So you could've definitely spent the full MLE on a 6th man. And possibly also upgraded Neto or O'Quinn to someone for about $3M instead of the minimum. (Not a big upgrade.)

[Black Mage]

If he was forced to stay under the luxury tax this year, then free agency was amazing. Grade: A. If he had the option to go up to the apron and didn't take it then he made us a worse team. Grade: B. Getting Horford and Richardson to replace JJ and Jimmy is better for the money, but overall I would have rather kept JJ and Jimmy and been over the cap with an extra $13 m for free agents from the MLE/BAE.

OK, this is interesting, so play it out if you will: let's say the team had kept JJ and Jimmy with the contracts that they received this offseason (and also Tobi). Knowing what else has happened, build your best hypothetical team. Even though nothing can be done to change anything, I kind of like this kind of counterfactual.

I pretty much did that here:
viewtopic.php?p=76385466#p76385466

End result was:
Ben Simmons / BAE / Veteran Minimum
JJ Redick / Zhaire Smith / Shake Milton
Jimmy Butler / Mike Scott / 2nd Rd Pick (33,34,44,54?)
Tobias Harris / 1st Rd Pick 24 / Jonah Bolden
Joel Embiid / MLE / Boban Marjanovic

But let's assume we aren't changing what happened with the draft. We'll keep JJ/Jimmy instead of getting Horford/JRich. But we have Thybulle and no decent 2nd round pick. But we get Ennis back for the minimum (wasn't expecting that). Also assume Zhaire, Shake, and Thybulle are all 3rd string.

Mike Scott and Boban were both less than half a million more than I budgeted. Ennis' minimum is more than the rookie minimum I budgeted for a 2nd rd pick. And since Shake signed a 4yr contract that takes up part of the MLE/BAE. MLE+BAE is about $13M, but we end up probably with only $9M remaining under the apron to fill those last 3 slots. O'Quinn and Neto can be minimums and use the rest (MLE) on a legit 6th man. Not sure who that would be. If there's another decent big man available for the minimum, maybe we sign him and don't bring back Boban. That would add another million or so to the budget for the 6th man. Essentially, I like JJ+Jimmy+good 6th man better than Horford+JRich+current bench.

Ben Simmons / Neto / Shake Milton
JJ Redick / Good ($7-9M) 6th man / Zhaire Smith
Jimmy Butler / James Ennis / Thybulle
Tobias Harris / Mike Scott / Jonah Bolden
Joel Embiid / O'Quinn / Boban Marjanovic

Have the Sixers or Jimmy confirmed either way on whether he was actually offered the full 5yr max? If he was the one saying no, we couldn't have done this scenario anyway. At any rate, I'm really impressed with what we have while working under the cap.

I love JJ, but take a look at the change between his 2018 and 2019 playoff stats. He declined. His BPM 2018 was .4 but dropped to a negative 1.2 in 2019. What's scary about that is his DBPM actually improved significantly from 2018 to 2019. It was his offensive BPM that fell off a cliff.

As much as he helped space and provided shooting, I think we really only see that benefit in the regular season. I feel much more comfortable with our current lineup than the previous one. Brett, can if he needs to, have 48 full minutes of near elite rim protection and now there isn't a single weak spot on our starting unit when we need to close things out.

[ckchen]

Regardless, that doesn't absolve him of the original sin of locking in on a single player, making a draft promise and the entire league knowing it, forcing himself to overpay for someone.

Unless you have some insider information, this is not how one would reasonably expect a draft promise to work. A draft promise is us promising to let him go no lower than #23, in exchange for cancelling his other workouts. There’s no way the draft promise involves “if you’re taken earlier than 23, we’ll find some way to overpay and get you”. If Brand chose to trade up, it’s because he thinks Thybulle as a prospect is worth it- we’ll find out if he was right. But the promise is really immaterial. It gave away some information to other teams, but if Thybulle’s workout was so exceptional that Brand really believed letting him workout with others would cause him to go higher than #20, then we still came out ahead in making the promise. No one knows till the kid steps on the floor.

The issue is that everyone knew. Even if the promise is we'll take at our pick, the fact that they are so locked in on the one guy that they felt the need to move up AND everyone knew puts you at a major disadvantage. Being locked in on one player is making you think you have to move up, and everyone knowing giving away all of your leverage when you DO trade up. Again, process over results - it's almost immaterial to me if Thybulle ends up being "worth it" if you're overpaying for something you didn't have to overpay for and it's your fault that's an issue.

[ckchen]

Hey, that's up to you man. I'm a 40 year draftnik. I take the draft seriously, but I'm not going to lose any sleep over some GD 2nd round picks. Especially, when I only expected him to use 2 of them, at the most, and he traded one of them for 3 more future 2nds.

I'm not going to sit here and indict his entire body of work, after seeing the finished product, over trading away an opportunity to get friggin Carsen Edwards (who isn't much more than a future Isaiah Canaan). You can hold onto that as evidence of your intial thoughts if you want.

Again, my point isn't about the results - but about the thought process/strategy going into it. Ultimately is it "not that big of a deal" - yeah sure fine. But if this is indicative of how he's going to navigate the draft, my point is that this is going to really hurt us when it actually DOES matter. Now that he's locked us into these massive contracts, the draft will need to be primary source of both bench players and a future pipeline for after those contracts are up. If his mentality to the draft is "whatever it's just some second round picks" (which I think he actually said) - then I absolutely will hold onto that because I think it's indicative of a bad approach.

I'm certainly not going to praise him like he's some kind of genius GM. I'm not saying he needs to be fired, but I'm just saying that you can't ignore his shortcomings during the draft just because he navigated free agency adequately. Because in the next few years the draft and how he treats the draft will be more and more important.

[ckchen]

Hey, that's up to you man. I'm a 40 year draftnik. I take the draft seriously, but I'm not going to lose any sleep over some GD 2nd round picks. Especially, when I only expected him to use 2 of them, at the most, and he traded one of them for 3 more future 2nds.

I missed this. I thought it was 1 for 1 future 2nd. Nice!

I'm pretty sure that in actuality it was really only 2 picks. 2020 ATL 2nd round (31-55) and second pick seemed like three because it was the 2nd pick 2023 pick is the best of 3 picks that atlanta owns (best of ATL/CHA/BKN). Ultimately they will still only net two picks from this deal.

[FlyingArrow]

I really don't see the advantage of promising anyone. You see someone and you like them - you make a promise that if they don't do any more workouts you won't let them fall below pick X.

The player should still do more workouts! What your promise tells them is that they are better than their current projected draft position. More workouts increases the likelihood some other team will pick them even earlier, thus increasing their income. They do that and then you aren't bound by your 'promise', but what do they care about a promise? They know you like them and will probably take them at that pick anyway. If anything, a promise will probably leak and draw extra attention to that player. You're more likely to get them when you want them by not promising.

And if you are going to hold yourself to the promise then you're saying that if someone unexpectedly drops you're not going to take them. Terribly shortsighted. Just rank the players and when you're up, take the top player on your list. Maybe with some adjustments for position if you have multiple draft picks and you want to draft for multiple needs.

[LloydFree]

I really don't see the advantage of promising anyone. You see someone and you like them - you make a promise that if they don't do any more workouts you won't let them fall below pick X.

The player should still do more workouts! What your promise tells them is that they are better than their current projected draft position. More workouts increases the likelihood some other team will pick them even earlier, thus increasing their income. They do that and then you aren't bound by your 'promise', but what do they care about a promise? They know you like them and will probably take them at that pick anyway. If anything, a promise will probably leak and draw extra attention to that player. You're more likely to get them when you want them by not promising.

And if you are going to hold yourself to the promise then you're saying that if someone unexpectedly drops you're not going to take them. Terribly shortsighted. Just rank the players and when you're up, take the top player on your list. Maybe with some adjustments for position if you have multiple draft picks and you want to draft for multiple needs.

We just saw the benefit of promising someone. The Clippers promised Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, he shut down workouts so nobody could see up close how good he was. So instead of going top 8, like he should have, he went 14 to the Clips. Now I didn't agree with WHO they promised, because I don't think he would have the ability to go much higher, but I totally get why you make that promise and get the guy to shut it down.

[FlyingArrow]

I really don't see the advantage of promising anyone. You see someone and you like them - you make a promise that if they don't do any more workouts you won't let them fall below pick X.

The player should still do more workouts! What your promise tells them is that they are better than their current projected draft position. More workouts increases the likelihood some other team will pick them even earlier, thus increasing their income. They do that and then you aren't bound by your 'promise', but what do they care about a promise? They know you like them and will probably take them at that pick anyway. If anything, a promise will probably leak and draw extra attention to that player. You're more likely to get them when you want them by not promising.

And if you are going to hold yourself to the promise then you're saying that if someone unexpectedly drops you're not going to take them. Terribly shortsighted. Just rank the players and when you're up, take the top player on your list. Maybe with some adjustments for position if you have multiple draft picks and you want to draft for multiple needs.

We just saw the benefit of promising someone. The Clippers promised Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, he shut down workouts so nobody could see up close how good he was. So instead of going top 8, like he should have, he went 14 to the Clips. Now I didn't agree with WHO they promised, because I don't think he would have the ability to go much higher, but I totally get why you make that promise and get the guy to shut it down.

Fair enough. I don't see why SGA shut it down, though. What's the advantage for him?

"If you shut it down, we'll take you at 14. If you don't, we might not."

"So you're saying I'm your favorite but you might pass on your favorite? Yeah, I bet you won't. Thanks for the vote of confidence but I'll see if I keep doing workouts and see if I can go even higher."

[LloydFree]

I really don't see the advantage of promising anyone. You see someone and you like them - you make a promise that if they don't do any more workouts you won't let them fall below pick X.

The player should still do more workouts! What your promise tells them is that they are better than their current projected draft position. More workouts increases the likelihood some other team will pick them even earlier, thus increasing their income. They do that and then you aren't bound by your 'promise', but what do they care about a promise? They know you like them and will probably take them at that pick anyway. If anything, a promise will probably leak and draw extra attention to that player. You're more likely to get them when you want them by not promising.

And if you are going to hold yourself to the promise then you're saying that if someone unexpectedly drops you're not going to take them. Terribly shortsighted. Just rank the players and when you're up, take the top player on your list. Maybe with some adjustments for position if you have multiple draft picks and you want to draft for multiple needs.

We just saw the benefit of promising someone. The Clippers promised Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, he shut down workouts so nobody could see up close how good he was. So instead of going top 8, like he should have, he went 14 to the Clips. Now I didn't agree with WHO they promised, because I don't think he would have the ability to go much higher, but I totally get why you make that promise and get the guy to shut it down.

Fair enough. I don't see why SGA shut it down, though. What's the advantage for him?

"If you shut it down, we'll take you at 14. If you don't, we might not."

"So you're saying I'm your favorite but you might pass on your favorite? Yeah, I bet you won't. Thanks for the vote of confidence but I'll see if I keep doing workouts and see if I can go even higher."

Yeah, I don't get it for the player, unless he's sees a specific fit/opportunity that suits him perfectly.

[sixers hoops]

I really don't see the advantage of promising anyone. You see someone and you like them - you make a promise that if they don't do any more workouts you won't let them fall below pick X.

The player should still do more workouts! What your promise tells them is that they are better than their current projected draft position. More workouts increases the likelihood some other team will pick them even earlier, thus increasing their income. They do that and then you aren't bound by your 'promise', but what do they care about a promise? They know you like them and will probably take them at that pick anyway. If anything, a promise will probably leak and draw extra attention to that player. You're more likely to get them when you want them by not promising.

And if you are going to hold yourself to the promise then you're saying that if someone unexpectedly drops you're not going to take them. Terribly shortsighted. Just rank the players and when you're up, take the top player on your list. Maybe with some adjustments for position if you have multiple draft picks and you want to draft for multiple needs.

We just saw the benefit of promising someone. The Clippers promised Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, he shut down workouts so nobody could see up close how good he was. So instead of going top 8, like he should have, he went 14 to the Clips. Now I didn't agree with WHO they promised, because I don't think he would have the ability to go much higher, but I totally get why you make that promise and get the guy to shut it down.

Fair enough. I don't see why SGA shut it down, though. What's the advantage for him?

"If you shut it down, we'll take you at 14. If you don't, we might not."

"So you're saying I'm your favorite but you might pass on your favorite? Yeah, I bet you won't. Thanks for the vote of confidence but I'll see if I keep doing workouts and see if I can go even higher."

He reportedly wanted to be in Los Angeles. He was a case of a player that may have preferred to get drafted a little lower to get to Los Angeles.

According to John Nash, Kobe’s agent told the 12 teams ahead of the Lakers not to draft Kobe because he would only play for LA. John Nash said that the Nets owner didn’t want to deal with a messy holdout, so Nash took Kittles instead.

So in some cases, if players get the promise from a desired city, they will shut down workouts.

[cool93]

I really don't see the advantage of promising anyone. You see someone and you like them - you make a promise that if they don't do any more workouts you won't let them fall below pick X.

The player should still do more workouts! What your promise tells them is that they are better than their current projected draft position. More workouts increases the likelihood some other team will pick them even earlier, thus increasing their income. They do that and then you aren't bound by your 'promise', but what do they care about a promise? They know you like them and will probably take them at that pick anyway. If anything, a promise will probably leak and draw extra attention to that player. You're more likely to get them when you want them by not promising.

And if you are going to hold yourself to the promise then you're saying that if someone unexpectedly drops you're not going to take them. Terribly shortsighted. Just rank the players and when you're up, take the top player on your list. Maybe with some adjustments for position if you have multiple draft picks and you want to draft for multiple needs.

We just saw the benefit of promising someone. The Clippers promised Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, he shut down workouts so nobody could see up close how good he was. So instead of going top 8, like he should have, he went 14 to the Clips. Now I didn't agree with WHO they promised, because I don't think he would have the ability to go much higher, but I totally get why you make that promise and get the guy to shut it down.

He was actually selected by Hornets at 11 and then traded to Clippers. Guess Charlotte fleeced West too

Sent from my G3416 using RealGM mobile app

[Mavericksfan]

We just saw the benefit of promising someone. The Clippers promised Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, he shut down workouts so nobody could see up close how good he was. So instead of going top 8, like he should have, he went 14 to the Clips. Now I didn't agree with WHO they promised, because I don't think he would have the ability to go much higher, but I totally get why you make that promise and get the guy to shut it down.

Fair enough. I don't see why SGA shut it down, though. What's the advantage for him?

"If you shut it down, we'll take you at 14. If you don't, we might not."

"So you're saying I'm your favorite but you might pass on your favorite? Yeah, I bet you won't. Thanks for the vote of confidence but I'll see if I keep doing workouts and see if I can go even higher."

Yeah, I don't get it for the player, unless he's sees a specific fit/opportunity that suits him perfectly.

Go to team you like? Or a team with a chance to win?

If Thybulle worked out for others and went earlier the Sixers would have to give up more for him or miss out on their guy.

Honestly EB have been nothing short of spectatular so far. This thread existing and being so large is questionable. The team is so much better in such a short period of time it’s not even funny.

[FlyingArrow]

Not much of the discussion here is suggesting that he be fired.

[Wrangor]

Hot take from the lurker.....Richardson is a better player for the Sixers than Butler. Horford is the perfect match for Embiid because he won't clog the paint, and he can defend the 5 when Embiid is resting/DNP. Scoring will be an issue, but this team now has an elite identity....defense. I think Brand did a masterful job this offseason. Butler is a midrange jump shooter that demands the ball in his hands to be effective. He is a mediocre defender at this point in his career. Embiid and Simmons need to have the ball on offense...much better to have Richardson (who knows his role) Simmons (who can fill it up in an instant off the catch or one dribble) and defensive role players to keep the other team from scoring than aging vets like JJ or Butler who must score to have any impact.

I think Philly is going to really enjoy watching this team. I am seeing an old NY Knicks (Ewing/Starks/Oakley) vibe to this squad. Force the shooters into the lane, don't overhelp from the wings. Make guards shoot over Horford and Embiid all game long. Pound them into submission with physicality and size. Pick up a shooter or two during the year for bench depth.