shi-woo wrote:As a Celtic fan, I find it weird that you say it would have been devastating if we got a top 5 pick, but then go on to talk about how the #4 pick might be useless in a 2-3 player draft.
And it's not the pick that matters, but who is drafted with the pick, and what it's value is.
If Celtics make a trade for AD involving Tatum and #14, it will go down in history, and be on every top 10 worst trades of all te list you see now till the end of time.
If Celtics draft a solid player at 14, it's still the worst trade since Billy King....
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Fair point.
First, it will only go down as one of the worst 10 trades of all time if Tatum becomes the next Paul Pierce.
I realize that Pierce talks him up all the time, but Pierce was a top-5/top-10 player in an era of Kobe, Wade,
Iverson, Dirk and Shaq. He could create his own shot. I haven't seen that yet from Tatum. Granted, he's only
21. But I don't think he's quick enough to play 3 and big or physical enough to be an elite 4.
And there will be doubt about him - as there is with other Celtics players - if they're specially suited for Brad
Stevens' system. As much as I like his game, would his 3-point shooting drop to the low .300 level, much like
Tobias Harris's did playing for Brett Brown
So, FYI: The worst trades of all time involve trading players like Wilt Chamberlain for Jerry Chambers, Archie
Clark and Darrall Imhoff, Barkley for Jeff Hornacek, Tim Perry and Andrew Lange, Jabaar (then Lew Alcindor)
for Elmore Smith, Brian Winters, Dave Meyers and Junior Bridgeman. It is unlikely Tatum will ever be in that
class.
A second issue is: Will Anthony Davis want to stay in Boston? Without Kyrie, I doubt it. With Kyrie and a gutted
roster, I doubt it. It's risky. We shall see whether it pays off for Toronto. It did for OKC, going after Paul George
with no guarantees.
As for the 3 pick or 4 pick, you are right that it may not materialize into a good player. It happens often.
Nevertheless, there is still a higher probability that even in a weak draft a four pick is likely to bring the owner
of the pick a better prospect than a 14 pick.
I don't think the 14 pick has produced a true star for 30 years.
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/history-of-the-nba-draft-by-pick/history-of-the-nba-draft-pick-number-14/Obviously, there have been a lot of misses - players picked 15-30 or 30-45 becoming stars. But the history of the
draft gives you a better chance picking 4 than picking 14.
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/history-of-the-nba-draft-by-pick/history-of-the-nba-draft-pick-number-4/So the Celtics, IMO, have no pick to offer. The 4 pick, even if it doesn't materialize into a good player would have
helped you put together a package to compete for Davis.