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2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1

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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#1281 » by 51X3RF4N » Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:23 pm

There are some out there who think Ainge getting a top 3 pick would be the first step in trading for Harden.

Warriors trade out of #2 for a haul of other picks plus a few of Boston's cheaper prospects...

Then Kemba, #2, future picks, and Smart for Harden....

Or Minnesota trades #1 plus James Johnson for Hayward and picks.

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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#1282 » by Stanford » Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:25 pm

51X3RF4N wrote:There are some out there who think Ainge getting a top 3 pick would be the first step in trading for Harden.


That's way more likely than acquiring it to draft Wiseman.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#1283 » by Negrodamus » Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:26 pm

I'm a bit confused with the Pat Williams rise in recent days. There was talk about Bulls being interested in him at 4. Like the guy, but he definitely feels like OG Anunoby is his upside, a very nice role player but no real path to stardom. In the top 10, you have a bunch of prospects who have that path to stardom, why not go for it?
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#1284 » by Stanford » Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:30 pm

Negrodamus wrote:I'm a bit confused with the Pat Williams rise in recent days.


My assumption has been that he has good agent.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#1285 » by skulky » Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:04 pm

Negrodamus wrote:
Read on Twitter


Wow, that shakes things up a bit. He's one of the top picks on my big board.

Injured top prospect big man, is that sam hinkie’s entrance music I hear?
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#1286 » by HardenToSixers » Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:21 pm

What are your guys' thoughts on Grant Riller? He seems pretty dynamic.

I am overall fairly impressed by this draft in some ways, especially from a guard/shot creator standpoint.

I doubt we take this approach but this would've been an unbelievable draft 2 or 3 years ago to just diversify our picks and take relatively low cost shots on 3 or 4 different guards to hit on one or two that would have completely changed the complexion of our offense. Really seems to me like there are several undersized and limited but dynamic guys who will pop in the league.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#1287 » by Negrodamus » Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:39 pm

HardenToSixers wrote:What are your guys' thoughts on Grant Riller? He seems pretty dynamic.

I am overall fairly impressed by this draft in some ways, especially from a guard/shot creator standpoint.

I doubt we take this approach but this would've been an unbelievable draft 2 or 3 years ago to just diversify our picks and take relatively low cost shots on 3 or 4 different guards to hit on one or two that would have completely changed the complexion of our offense. Really seems to me like there are several undersized and limited but dynamic guys who will pop in the league.


Wasn't as dominant on offense for me to disregard his mediocre defense, given the competition. He's an interesting second round two way guy, but don't quite get the first round grade many are giving him. Lillard was similarly bad on defense in bad competition but was unbelievable on offense.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#1288 » by Fischella » Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:00 pm

Negrodamus wrote:I think Poku has to go top ten in this draft, right? Dude is an extremely fluid ballhandler at 7ft with a jumper. Not that he's Giannis, but I think people have learned their lesson since 2013, especially in a similarly terrible draft. I wouldn't be surprised if he went top 5 honestly.

Poku is 7'2 in shoes
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#1289 » by stormi » Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:21 pm

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lmaooooo
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#1290 » by Negrodamus » Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:35 pm

Obi Toppin is the most Knicks pick ever. I would love to see the Knicks also land Westbrook somehow. Barrett, Westbrook, and Toppin would be a weird, but fun, big three for them.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#1291 » by Stanford » Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:38 pm

Negrodamus wrote:Obi Toppin is the most Knicks pick ever. I would love to see the Knicks also land Westbrook somehow. Barrett, Westbrook, and Toppin would be a weird, but fun, big three for them.


Cole Anthony too. If they come out of the draft with Toppin and Anthony, it'll be the most Knicks thing ever.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#1292 » by Sixerscan » Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:36 pm

Negrodamus wrote:Obi Toppin is the most Knicks pick ever. I would love to see the Knicks also land Westbrook somehow. Barrett, Westbrook, and Toppin would be a weird, but fun, big three for them.

Obi is CAA too, it’s too perfect.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#1293 » by Arsenal » Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:39 pm

Negrodamus wrote:I'm a bit confused with the Pat Williams rise in recent days. There was talk about Bulls being interested in him at 4. Like the guy, but he definitely feels like OG Anunoby is his upside, a very nice role player but no real path to stardom. In the top 10, you have a bunch of prospects who have that path to stardom, why not go for it?


Pretty obvious smokescreen or agent blowing smoke.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#1294 » by Arsenal » Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:41 pm

If Poku is somehow sitting there for us at #21 we have to take him. Crazy upside. True UNICORN potential.

Because of that, in this weak draft I'd be shocked if he's there for us.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#1295 » by Arsenal » Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:44 pm

Based on the Knicks trade up, we should be able to package #34 + #36 to get up to ~ #27. If there's someone we love, maybe we do that. Avoids having to use any of the midlevel, which is required to sign 2nd rounders to 4 year Hinkie special contracts.

Really hoping we come out of this draft with at least THREE contributors + upside prospects, unless we trade them away for stars.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#1296 » by Sixerscan » Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:45 pm

The ESPN mock has us taking Cole Anthony, Nico Mannion and Cassius Winston which obviously isn’t happening but if it did I would be pretty disappointed summer league wasn’t happening because that team would be wild.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#1297 » by Arsenal » Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:49 pm

Sixerscan wrote:The ESPN mock has us taking Cole Anthony, Nico Mannion and Cassius Winston which obviously isn’t happening but if it did I would be pretty disappointed summer league wasn’t happening because that team would be wild.


I'll be pissed if we get Mannion and Winston. No thanks.

Tankathon updated just now. Here's what they have for us:

#21 - Malachi Flynn: PG SDSU
#34 - Isaiah Joe: SG Ark
#36 - Daniel Oteru: CE Minn
#49 - Cassius Stanley: SG Duke
#58 - Yam Madar: PG Intl

Tons of smoke about us taking Flynn at #21. Not happy about it but willing to trust Morey if it happens.

http://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#1298 » by Sixerscan » Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:51 pm

Arsenal wrote:
Sixerscan wrote:The ESPN mock has us taking Cole Anthony, Nico Mannion and Cassius Winston which obviously isn’t happening but if it did I would be pretty disappointed summer league wasn’t happening because that team would be wild.


I'll be pissed if we get Mannion and Winston. No thanks.

Tankathon updated just now. Here's what they have for us:

#21 - Malachi Flynn: PG SDSU
#34 - Isaiah Joe: SG Ark
#36 - Daniel Oteru: CE Minn
#49 - Cassius Stanley: SG Duke
#58 - Yam Madar: PG Intl

Tons of smoke about us taking Flynn at #21. Not happy about it but willing to trust Morey if it happens.

http://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft

I’m exclusively talking summer league. Carson Edwards dominated summer league it’s not 1:1.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#1299 » by Negrodamus » Wed Nov 18, 2020 7:08 pm

Wings that played in the BPM era (according to Sports Reference) in college and made it to one of the past two All Star games:

Kyrie Irving - OBPM: 9.8, DBPM: 5.0, STL%: 3.0, AST%: 29.8
Kawhi Leonard - OBPM: 5.3, DBPM: 3.9, STL%: 2.7, AST%: 16.0
Bradley Beal - OBPM: 5.4, DBPM: 2.9, STL%: 2.5, AST%: 12.7
Ben Simmons - OBPM: 7.0, DBPM: 3.3, STL%: 3.1, AST%: 27.4
Damian Lillard -OBPM: 9.1, DBPM: 0.7, STL%: 2.5, AST%: 27.1
Klay Thompson -OBPM: 6.8, DBPM: 3.0, STL%: 2.8, AST%: 25.0
Victor Oladipo - OBPM: 8.9, DBPM: 6.2, STL%: 4.6, AST%: 15.2
Khris Middleton - OBPM: 4.3, DBPM: 1.9, STL%: 2.1, AST%: 20.0
D'Angelo Russell - OBPM: 8.6, DBPM: 3.3, STL%: 2.8, AST%: 30.1
Kemba Walker -OBPM: 9.2, DBPM: 3.9, STL%: 3.1, AST%: 28.0
Devin Booker -OBPM: 6.1, DBPM: 3.3, STL%: 1.3, AST%: 10.9
Jayson Tatum - OBPM: 4.6, DBPM: 3.2, STL%: 2.3, AST%: 12.2
Jimmy Butler - OBPM: 7.2, DBPM: 2.2, STL%: 2.4, AST%: 13.2
Donovan Mitchell - OBPM: 5.7, DBPM: 5.5, STL%: 3.7, AST%: 16.0
Brandon Ingram- OBPM: 6.0, DBPM: 2.0, STL%: 1.9, AST%: 11.4
Trae Young - OBPM: 9.7, DBPM: 1.3, STL%: 2.5, AST%: 48.6

DBPM, aside from a few anomalies is 2+. STL% is generally 2.2+, AST% is at least 10+, OBPM is at least 5+



Negrodamus wrote:I'll try to remember what I did. I'm sure it was along the lines of +73 FT% (for guards, 70% for C), +2 STL%, +10 AST% (for guards), <.55 TS%, and probably +.2 FTr (which feels low, but Herro was included, so whatever). I'm sure there was something else along those lines, but it feels a little dated to me. I'll add my recent metric of +4 OBPM and +2 DBPM which would pretty much keep everyone on the above list intact aside from Morant, however there is a caveat: The only players I consider with a less than 2 BPM are guards with +8 OBPM (Dame Lillard, Trae Young in their final years in college). Ja had an 8.3 OBPM and misses the mark barely with 1.7 DBPM. I'll also ignore int'l prospects. And I clipped it out from my quoted original post, but I'm pretty lenient on bigs. I won't ding them for < 10 AST%, but they still need a > 2 STL%

Fill all:
Onyeka Okongwu
Devin Vassell
Tyrese Haliburton
Tyler Bey
Devon Dotson
Paul Reed
Skylar Mays
Killian Tillie
Malachi Flynn
Payton Pritchard
Mason Jones


Notes:

-Anthony Edwards is pretty dreadful as the top pick.

-Wiseman kinda fills most, but also it's impossible to evaluate 3 games, so I just left him out.

-Josh Green feels like a guy who will reach the "Fill all" section as his game grows based on all other aspects of his game. The OBPM being sub 4 feels lower than his ability based on the eye test. Tyrell Terry too.

-Tre Jones and CJ Elleby just off with a .52 TS%; Bane and Trevelin Queen just off with a sub .2 FTr; Cassius Winston and Ty-Shon Alexander with a 1.9 DBPM; Xavier Tillman with a sub 70% FT but jeez, he blows out every other category.

-Sam Merrill and Markus Howard just miss because of their STL% but have some of the higher OBPM in this draft. Kaleb Wesson also just misses because of STL%.

I'll add more if I have time later. Obviously I like a lot of prospects that just miss the list and eye test is still quite important, but it's nice to filter the options down when you have later picks in the draft.



Feel like building upon this as we inch toward 7pm. This in some ways works with top NBA role players/fringe stars too, in a way.

RoCo: OBPM: 4.4, DBPM: 1.9, STL%: 4.1, AST%: 10.0, TS%: .56, FTr: .384
Devonte Graham: OBPM: 6.6, DBPM: 2.0, STL%: 2.4, AST%: 31.4, TS%: .57, FTr: .406
Terrence Ross: OBPM: 5.2, DBPM: 2.8, STL%: 2.3, AST%: 9.2, TS%: .55, FTr: .200
Kris Dunn: OBPM: 4.7, DBPM: 5.4, STL%: 4.3, AST%: 41.8, TS%: .54, FTr: .462
Fred VanVleet: OBPM:5.1, DBPM: 5.1, STL%: 3.7, AST%: 39.6, TS%: .52, FTr: .370
Marcus Smart: OBPM: 6.5, DBPM: 5.5, STL%: 5.0, AST%: 30.1, TS%: .55, FTr: .648
OG Anunoby: OBPM: 5.4, DBPM: 3.5, STL%: 3.0, AST%: 11.0, TS%: .61, FTr: .369
TJ Warren: OBPM: 9.2, DBPM: 1.6, STL%: 3.1, AST%: 8.6, TS%: .57, FTr: .178
Norman Powell: OBPM: 3.1, DBPM: 3.2, STL%: 3.2, AST%: 12.8, TS%: .54, FTr: .362
Jae Crowder: OBPM: 8.4, DBPM: 5.4, STL%: 4.3, AST%: 13.5, TS%: .598, FTr: .372
Kelly Oubre: OBPM: 4.7, DBPM: 4.1, STL%: 3.3, AST%: 8.1, TS%: .55, FTr: .444
Joe Harris: OBPM: 4.5, DBPM: 4.1, STL%: 2.2, AST%: 18.1, TS%: .56, FTr: .337
Alex Caruso: OBPM: 2.8, DBPM: 6.1, STL%: 4.2, AST%: 31.1, TS%: .60, FTr: .294

I can go on, but as you can see there are a few outliers where they fall short of certain benchmarks (TJ Warren on AST% and FTr; same with Terrence Ross), but largely these guys all stay within a similar sweet spot of the stars in the league. There are a few other indicators for stars IMO, like being above 50% inside the arc. But this is why I'm not excited for a guy like Isaiah Joe:

Isaiah Joe: OBPM: 4.0, DBPM: 1.2, STL%: 2.2, AST%: 10.0, TS%: .54, FTr: .253

Below the benchmark for FTr, TS% and DBPM; barely made AST%. If you want to argue he's an anomaly Warren, at least TJ had an absurd 35.5 USG% (to Isaiah's 24.2). Caruso was brought up for his body type, but even his stats suggest his offense wasn't even his strong point (however he was a better distributor and efficient shooter). The benchmarks Joe clears are even the bare minimum. Don't want to pick on Joe too much. Might edit this space throughout the day to point out the difference between the above players and the guys I also don't like.



Interestingly (or maybe not), I think freshman prospects should get more leeway. Dejounte Murray, Jrue Holiday (in some regards), and Zach LaVine played poorly, but there was physical indicators that maybe they were to eventually blow up.

Thanks for coming to my NBA Draft Ted Talk.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#1300 » by Monix » Wed Nov 18, 2020 7:19 pm

count me as someone who finds Josh Green pretty underwhelming

watched some highlights from his year at 'Zona - all catch and shoot threes and uncontested dunks, for a guy who's supposed to be an athlete it doesn't flash on his highlights

wouldn't pick him in the 1st round

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