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Negrodamus wrote:Of non-lottery picks, there are only two guys in this draft that fulfills a pretty elite stat line that I generally look for in prospects:

+.6 TS%, +2 STL%, +5 OBPM, +2 DBPM, +10 AST%

Mason Jones and Skylar Mays. Tyler Bey too, but I'm focusing on pure wings.

I'd be fine with drafting him at 21. Feels like a stretch based on mock drafts, but his numbers back up his value.

That is an interesting stat line, Tyler Bey has the athleticism and measurables. He would definitely be a project, would transition from college big to nba wing. His shooting numbers a bit misleading he only attempted like 30 3s for the season, and his free throw percentage is kind of average. I don’t know how much I love him at 21, if we could package 34/36 into late first or is he slips to 34. But at same time I highly value good wings. There’s just a couple of late lottery/mid teens projected players I think that’ll be there at 21 that I’d rate higher than Bey, but he’s definitely intriguing.

I'm alright with bailing on a first round point guard. The options are currently scary to me. I'm warming up to Skylar Mays being the pick at 21. There are some limitations from an eye standpoint, but he hits the traditional star profile that could, baseline, make him a great role player.



He plays the "PG" role a decent amount of this game against a top defense and shreds them. His jumper looks pretty textbook. He does tend to get obliterated on screens on defense.

I think if we walk away from this draft with three picks, it should be Skylar Mays, Killian Tillie, and CJ Elleby. A nice mix of star potential with the tools to fall back on becoming strong role players.

I’ll have to watch more skylar mays, not a player I really have on my radar.

Have to say I’m enjoying the Mike Schmitz virtual film session series. I love the way Haliburton talks about the game.

If we did make a big embiid or Simmons move, I think Haliburton would be an interesting piece. And the idea of Simmons with obi toppin front court, Ben throwing lobs and leaning into ben’s versatility with toppin as small ball center.

Negrodamus wrote:I'm alright with bailing on a first round point guard. The options are currently scary to me. I'm warming up to Skylar Mays being the pick at 21. There are some limitations from an eye standpoint, but he hits the traditional star profile that could, baseline, make him a great role player.

Watch on YouTube

He plays the "PG" role a decent amount of this game against a top defense and shreds them. His jumper looks pretty textbook. He does tend to get obliterated on screens on defense.

I think if we walk away from this draft with three picks, it should be Skylar Mays, Killian Tillie, and CJ Elleby. A nice mix of star potential with the tools to fall back on becoming strong role players.

I'm concerned that Mays took a big leap as a 22 year old Senior. Tankathon has him going #45 overall. Nbadraft.net has him undrafted. Not that they're correct, but are you seeing something that says he's going first round? Another guy I'm happy to take a shot on with a 2nd rounder.

Arsenal wrote:

Negrodamus wrote:I'm alright with bailing on a first round point guard. The options are currently scary to me. I'm warming up to Skylar Mays being the pick at 21. There are some limitations from an eye standpoint, but he hits the traditional star profile that could, baseline, make him a great role player.

Watch on YouTube

He plays the "PG" role a decent amount of this game against a top defense and shreds them. His jumper looks pretty textbook. He does tend to get obliterated on screens on defense.

I think if we walk away from this draft with three picks, it should be Skylar Mays, Killian Tillie, and CJ Elleby. A nice mix of star potential with the tools to fall back on becoming strong role players.

I'm concerned that Mays took a big leap as a 22 year old Senior. Tankathon has him going #45 overall. Nbadraft.net has him undrafted. Not that they're correct, but are you seeing something that says he's going first round? Another guy I'm happy to take a shot on with a 2nd rounder.

I feel like it happens fairly often: a projected second rounder goes in the first. Shamet, Jacob Evans, Dylan Windler, Jordan Poole, etc. Hell, Cam Johnson went 11th last year because he fulfills 3 things: excellent shooting profile, defensive upside, and creating upside. Obviously Cam is a bigger prospect, but Skylar at that point in the draft doesn't feel like a reach to me based on the trends of past drafts.

Is this draft considered deep? Im way out of the loop. Wonder how high 34 and 36 could get us, or if it would be better to take a shot on a few different players.

Yup, Skylar Mays is a monster. No clue why he isn't getting the love yet. He's an elite defender, elite shotcreater, and his free throw percentage is off the charts so that jumper is looking really projectable.

I don't care how old or how many years he spent in school, Skylar Mays is just flatout one of the best Gs in this draft.

We've been talking about him all year in this thread, but I'm surprised that Trent Forrest hasn't gotten any press in the draft community outside of us.

On paper, he does everything you want. Scores off the dribble, defends at a high level, operates smoothly as a secondary facilitator, has improved his free throw shooting on a yearly basis. And he's huge at 6'4" 215 pounds.

Based off skillset alone, he's a first rounder, despite poor college production.

Every scout in the league is watching FSU video for Vassell and Williams, so why hasn't Forrest emerged as a name people are excited about?

I agree that he's a guy to consider in the second, but I am afraid of that lack of production and atrocious shooting. Definitely think he's worth picking up though. Works hard and is clearly a leader.

Another senior that should be getting some love is Kamar Baldwin. His final year in school was a disappointment, but he ticks a ton of boxes as a guy that can score off the dribble with ease and defend the point of attack. He even has a jumper, to boot.



I mean, these guys like Mays, Forrest and Baldwin all have major playoff skillsets. Maybe they won't all pan out because some guys just don't have it from the neck-up, but these are the kind of prospects you should throw your picks at, IMO. Because if you hit on them, you're getting two-way playoff beasts.

Kinda unrelated, but did Shake seem like he could be a good defender coming out of college? He's obviously got the wingspan for it, but man was he bad on that end. That's not atypical for a (basically) 1st year guy though, so is the potential there, or is he just too slow/lacking the instinct for it?

youngcrev wrote:Kinda unrelated, but did Shake seem like he could be a good defender coming out of college? He's obviously got the wingspan for it, but man was he bad on that end. That's not atypical for a (basically) 1st year guy though, so is the potential there, or is he just too slow/lacking the instinct for it?

He was a pretty good team defender as a junior. I don't think he really showed anything in college that would suggest he could defend guys on the ball though, unfortunately. There's some noticeable instincts deficiencies and lack of aggression on that end from him.

Kobblehead wrote:

youngcrev wrote:Kinda unrelated, but did Shake seem like he could be a good defender coming out of college? He's obviously got the wingspan for it, but man was he bad on that end. That's not atypical for a (basically) 1st year guy though, so is the potential there, or is he just too slow/lacking the instinct for it?

He was a pretty good team defender as a junior. I don't think he really showed anything in college that would suggest he could defend guys on the ball though, unfortunately. There's some noticeable instincts deficiencies and lack of aggression on that end from him.

Tbf shakewho was essentially a rookie, was often tasked with kemba a very fast and crafty vet. I don’t think shake quite has the athleticism to be strong primary on ball defender of that type of player. He’s shown some good team defense and has great length for a bench guard that can switch and not be a liability like he was against Boston and kemba. Like many other aspects we had no answer for kemba.

His length is neutralized by him being a sub-professional level athlete, though. I don't think you can manufacture defensive instincts through more seasoning. Guys can either defend or they can't. Unfortunately, I don't see Shake ever being a defensive asset in the postseason. I think he'll always be deficient and picked on. And given that he has no real scoring ability off the dribble, I don't really see any playoff value in him. Just a spacer that can pass a little.

Shake has two major problems:

1) Lack of strength
2) Lack of athleticism

#1 can probably be fixed over time. #2 is what it is. HIs upside is to be a mediocre on-ball and decent team defender. Therefore to move the needle he needs to be a major plus (+3 ideally) on offense.

Considering he's only 23 and still growing into his body type, I think there's a chance he improves.

I have high hopes for Shake too. I think he can eventually be a 18-19 ppg player for a few years with great outside shooting. He's going to have to improve defensively at least with knowing where to be or where to push his opponent on the floor. He shouldn't be asked to guard Kemba Walker or Jamal Murray, but he should be able to guard guys like Danny Green, Marcus Smart,KCP, and Patrick Beverly. I'm going to wait for making a call on Milton because he showed a lot in his second season with us and I think we have a late round gem with him. If he becomes an average defender then he'll be playable in a playoff setting because he really is going to be deadly from three as time goes on. I really like Milton, he's one of the players on this team that I do defend most of the time.

The one really positive aspect about Shake is that he appears to be a "get it" guy. So even though I don't like his skillset for postseason basketball, I do think he'll find ways to be productive and useful. I'd just rather root for him from afar, like Landry Shamet.

ExplosionsInDaSky wrote:but he should be able to guard guys like Danny Green, Marcus Smart,KCP, and Patrick Beverly.

The problem is that NBA teams don't fight through screens anymore. They switch everything.

So Kemba Walker is going to bring the ball up the court and see Ben Simmons in front of him and he's going to call for Marcus Smart to come over and set a screen so that he can get switched onto Shake Milton.

The days of hiding bad defensive players are over. In the switch everything era of defensive basketball, you can't hide anyone. Not even the good team defenders that struggle guarding on the ball (Richardson types). Ball handlers are hunting guys that can't guard them and feasting.

So if we're going to tolerate a bad defender or someone that can't guard the ball (good team defender or not), he has to be able to torch people off the dribble on the other end for compensation (Alec Burks for instance).

That's why these shooting wings that can't dribble or defend are becoming less and less valuable in playoff basketball.

https://theplaygrounder.com/2020/09/12/data-scouting-3-and-d-wings/

Elleby man.