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I see how valuable Horford’s role to our team is. Such a brilliant move by EB.

Brad Stevens’ model of the C fits his role for our team.

BTW, I dont know if it’s intentional.

But if you try 538’s projection. It has Horford’s market value at 5 years 107M similar to his actual contract.

VDT wrote:The thing is that players at his age can fall off a cliff at any time. He is already a more limited player especially in the regular season.

People mention Duncan, but Duncan was a top 10 player and falling off a cliff meant that he was still a starting caliber player.

I fear that the Horford people will see in the coming years will be significantly different than what they have seen the last years. Especially if he is to play the 4 which is more demanding in terms of mobility.

I also dont think he is a good fit with Embiid offensively especially with Simmons in the team.

He is a career 37% shooter from 3 which is pretty good for a center but much more pedestrian for a PF nowadays.
His release is also slow, which might be ok when playing the 5 and trying to pull the opposing center out of the paint but not so useful when trying to space the floor for Embiid. His defender will be able to drop closer to the paint to pester Embiid and still contest the 3.

I don’t think Horford and Embiid will play together very much. My guess is about 8 minutes a night sharing the floor.

I've been totally fine with this move, and have always liked Horford as a player. Have high hopes for this season.
But let me share with you the echo that keeps going through my head. As many sports fans are, I'm quite logical in most of my life but am sort of superstitious when it comes to sports. So maybe I'm hoping that by putting this out there, I can ensure that it won't really happen.

The echo that keeps going through my head is Ben Wallace.

Now I'm not claiming for a moment that Wallace and Horford are the same kinds of players. Yeah, they play the same position, but obviously they're different kinds of centers. Wallace was a defensive machine with Detroit who was one of the worst scorers imaginable. Horford is solid defensively but not a world-breaker, yet he's very skilled on offense and can even spread the floor, and hence is a very good all-around vet.

The echo exists because the Bulls, my life-long favorite team, signed Wallace not long after having been beaten many times by Wallace's Pistons (and for a couple of years by Shaq's Heat). The Bulls wanted to make themselves more like the Pistons and wanted to be able to stop players like Shaq. So they spent their big FA wad on Wallace, a 32 year old center who was a 4-time DPOY. Even though many Bulls fans celebrated, many of us also gulped because we knew that 32 was pretty old for a big man and that Wallace might start declining right away. Of course, that's exactly what he did. He declined in his first season with the Bulls but still helped them to sweep Miami and Shaq in the 2006-07 playoffs (first round)... before losing to old nemesis Detroit in the 2nd round. After that, Wallace declined at a more alarming rate and pretty soon his was an albatross contract.

Wallace turned 32 right before he started his first Bulls season.
Horford turned 33 recently.

Y'all see where I'm going with this. I'm really happy about Horford's potential and I see where Horford circa 2015-18 would be perfect complements to Embiid and the rest of this team. I'm also worried that the Sixers, like the Bulls (and like so many generals throughout history), have been gearing up to fight the last war and are doing so by adopting one of the guys who beat them recently, but who's now on the wrong side of his prime. I'm worried that we get maybe one good year out of Horford (possibly even if it's less good than his previous few years) and that we then face a steep decline with a high sticker price.

That's what I'm worried about. Go ahead, make fun of me if you will. I'm sharing it because I hope that my worries are groundless and/or perhaps even that by sharing them I'll ensure that they won't be fulfilled. But that echo is nagging at the back of my brain.

Age is undefeated, but my hope is Wallace relied greatly on his athleticism while Horford does not rely on any athleticism.

A modest expectation is 2 high end years from Horford and then he plays out the contract as the old Veteran presence.

I think everybody realizes how ridiculous this signing was. Just hoping that 3 years of albatross goes down a lot easier after winning a championship in year 1.

I think Bulls' Gasol would be a better comparison.

Yeah, sure dude.

Horford will replace TJ as our elite 2 point converter outside the restricted area.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/shot_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_id=2019&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&is_playoffs=N&shot_distance_min=4&shot_distance_max=20&q1=Y&q2=Y&q3=Y&q4=Y&q5=Y&time_remain_minutes=12&time_remain_seconds=0&time_remain_comp=le&c1stat=fga&c1comp=ge&c1val=200&order_by=fg_pct

If you get three good years out of Horford, who has always played more of a skilled and cerebral game than an athletic based one, it is a great deal. The fourth year incentives are only in place if we win a championship, which is priceless itself. As an expiring contract for what would then be a backup center his deal might not only be movable, but necessarily so for a capped out team looking to match salary in a trade that we send assets with the contract for another player of value. I expect his decline to be slow and gradual, and actually am not half as worried about this contract as I would have been with a five year max for Jimmy.

If the Sixers can get 2 prime years from Horford, by then Embiid should be in his prime (if he doesn't break down) and Ben should be close to his prime (maybe he'll have a jumpshot) so a declining Horford isn't that bad. You never want dead weight in a salary cap/luxury tax environment, but Jojo and Ben should be carrying a heavier load in a couple of years.

Al played way more pf with the Celtics then people realise especially in 2017-2018 and the Celtics were very good when he played the position. He'll fit fine. Lets not exaggerate his age either we are getting his age 33, 34, 35, and 36 seasons. Even if he declined by effectiveness 10% each year he'd still be an above average starting power forward in year 4 because right now based on impact type stats he is still a borderline top 20 player based on last season's performance. People look at his counting stats and get all stoopid. Horford effects games in many different ways that are not going to be reflected in ppg and rebound averages. He also kills two birds with one stone he can basically be the defacto back up center when needed.

brannigan73 wrote:Al played way more pf with the Celtics then people realise especially in 2017-2018 and the Celtics were very good when he played the position. He'll fit fine. Lets not exaggerate his age either we are getting his age 33, 34, 35, and 36 seasons. Even if he declined by effectiveness 10% each year he'd still be an above average starting power forward in year 4 because right now based on impact type stats he is still a borderline top 20 player based on last season's performance. People look at his counting stats and get all stoopid. Horford effects games in many different ways that are not going to be reflected in ppg and rebound averages. He also kills two birds with one stone he can basically be the defacto back up center when needed.

He absolutely has the potential to age like fine wine ala Tim Duncan. And it's huge that we'll now be able to rest Embiid (Please, no more than 65 games next year) and NOT throw away games. Horford, Tobias, Ben, and Richardson should be able to beat most teams in the East.

Also, agree with Winejk that by the time Al's effectiveness wanes, the hope is that Joel and Ben are at the point they can carry a team on their own.

papajoe wrote:

Tomhomes33 wrote:Well you guys added size but also 33yrs old player next play off and committed to Harris, got Richardson. Definetely better defensive team, but less scoring and spacing..and also Butler was closer for you guys, he would make the last shot. I dont see Harris can do it.
So sure on paper you might look stronger but in 7games series with the same opponent...that fast scoring by JJ and Butler hitting shots in the last 2minutes will be missed and might cost you dearly.
Not sure its enough for the Bucks, Raptors (Kawhi), even Celtics...they might be functioning better with Kemba.
East is as wide open as it was last year, ńobody got significantly better.
Even Pacers lost Young Joseph Bogdanovic and Collison (retired) thats 4of9guys..chemistry disrupted.Dipo out till Xmas..

Now with Butler instead of Harris and adding Horford and Richardson..now you are talking..clearly east favourite even with kawhi back to TOronto. Have no idea why you guys didnt do that ?

Who the celtics got to guard Embiid?

No-one. We're hoping Al forgets which team he's playing on. He is pretty old.

brannigan73 wrote:Al played way more pf with the Celtics then people realise especially in 2017-2018 and the Celtics were very good when he played the position. He'll fit fine. Lets not exaggerate his age either we are getting his age 33, 34, 35, and 36 seasons. Even if he declined by effectiveness 10% each year he'd still be an above average starting power forward in year 4 because right now based on impact type stats he is still a borderline top 20 player based on last season's performance. People look at his counting stats and get all stoopid. Horford effects games in many different ways that are not going to be reflected in ppg and rebound averages. He also kills two birds with one stone he can basically be the defacto back up center when needed.

As long as you don't overplay him, he's fine at PF.
Putting him in with a strong rebounder works best, since he's pretty weak in that area, but your team shouldn't have much trouble with that.

He's a good shooter, outstanding passer, and versatile defender. I miss him already.

I think you guys would be surprised how good of a defender he is. It's all technique with him, and he will do well as 4 on your team. He has taken multiple of the best scoring PF/even SFs out of their game in recent years. He doesn't count on athletic ability to begin with so I don't think he will age as poorly as you guys think. I believe he will be a top notch player for at least another 2 years.

His offense is the full package, he can post up, he shoots the 3s at around .400(!!! with the C's, barely shot any 3s on the Hawks), his midrange game is fantastic too, and he's a big time playmaker on offense, he's a point center/PF. Don't be too disappointed with the regular season he's gonna have, he looks somewhat lazy and saving energy(although he will still have good to great games). I think your starting 5 is underrated as of right now, to me you're the clear cut favorites to win the East.

brannigan73 wrote:Al played way more pf with the Celtics then people realise especially in 2017-2018 and the Celtics were very good when he played the position. He'll fit fine. Lets not exaggerate his age either we are getting his age 33, 34, 35, and 36 seasons. Even if he declined by effectiveness 10% each year he'd still be an above average starting power forward in year 4 because right now based on impact type stats he is still a borderline top 20 player based on last season's performance. People look at his counting stats and get all stoopid. Horford effects games in many different ways that are not going to be reflected in ppg and rebound averages. He also kills two birds with one stone he can basically be the defacto back up center when needed.

Also his minutes have been reduced which lowers the counting stats. Per 36 he averaged 17, 8, and 5 last season. Not too shabby.

Jo and Al most likely won't be fixated on defense. I mean against Toronto we had Tobi on Gasol, Jo and Siakam, Ben on Kawhi... etc

Our defensive versatility next season is going to be off the charts swapping out an ultra negative defender and a good (but overrated) defender for two defensive rockstars.

Joel can guard the quicker matchups if need be and Al can be our paint pillar and so on. But I think many of us overstate Horford's decline rate. He's never been the player that predicated on using pure ability to to be effective. Rather- positioning, IQ and timing. Our defense will be nearly impossible to gameplan against just due to our length and switchability 1-5. This is going to be fun.

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lmbo at this awkward tweet

Do you think Horford is going to bring his chocolate milk propaganda to the Sixers?