Championship hopes

[SparksFly87]

We need Jrue Holiday .

[76ciology]

Am I wrong?

‪Top 6 3pt shooting centers (makes/%)‬
‪1.) KAT 3.3 41%‬
‪2.) Gasol 1.4 40%‬
‪3.) Baynes 1.4 35%‬
‪4.) Turner 1.4 33%‬
‪5.) Horford 1.5 33%‬
‪6.) Biid 1.3 35%‬

Crazy when you think about how Horford and Biid’s 3pt shooting are already elite for the C position.

Among Cs, Al is 2nd is makes per game. Among PFs (not considering guys like Galo or Roco), Al is around top 6 in makes. In terms of makes and %, his 3pt shooting number alone is comparable to this season’s CP3

KAT’s 3pt shooting is just on another level. He’s like the Steph Curry of centers when it comes to shooting.While the rest only makes around 1.5-1.3 3s a game on league average % at best.

[Sixerscan]

Am I wrong?

‪Top 6 3pt shooting centers (makes/%)‬
‪1.) KAT 3.3 41%‬
‪2.) Gasol 1.4 40%‬
‪3.) Baynes 1.4 35%‬
‪4.) Turner 1.4 33%‬
‪5.) Horford 1.5 33%‬
‪6.) Biid 1.3 35%‬

Crazy when you think about how Horford and Biid’s 3pt shooting are already elite for the C position.

Among Cs, Al is 2nd is makes per game. Among PFs (not considering guys like Galo or Roco), Al is around top 6 in makes. In terms of makes and %, his 3pt shooting number alone is comparable to this season’s CP3

KAT’s 3pt shooting is just on another level. He’s like the Steph Curry of centers when it comes to shooting.While the rest only makes around 1.5-1.3 3s a game on league average % at best.

I think most people say the two of them are fine shooters for centers. The issue has been playing them together especially with a non-shooter in Ben.

Offensive rating with
Ben+Jo no Al = 116.6 (93rd percentile)
Ben+Al no Jo = 114.3 (84th percentile)
Al+Jo no Ben = 108.4 (31st percentile)
Ben+Al+Jo = 99.3 (3rd percentile)

[76ciology]

Am I wrong?

‪Top 6 3pt shooting centers (makes/%)‬
‪1.) KAT 3.3 41%‬
‪2.) Gasol 1.4 40%‬
‪3.) Baynes 1.4 35%‬
‪4.) Turner 1.4 33%‬
‪5.) Horford 1.5 33%‬
‪6.) Biid 1.3 35%‬

Crazy when you think about how Horford and Biid’s 3pt shooting are already elite for the C position.

Among Cs, Al is 2nd is makes per game. Among PFs (not considering guys like Galo or Roco), Al is around top 6 in makes. In terms of makes and %, his 3pt shooting number alone is comparable to this season’s CP3

KAT’s 3pt shooting is just on another level. He’s like the Steph Curry of centers when it comes to shooting.While the rest only makes around 1.5-1.3 3s a game on league average % at best.

I think most people say the two of them are fine shooters for centers. The issue has been playing them together especially with a non-shooter in Ben.

Offensive rating with
Ben+Jo no Al = 116.6 (93rd percentile)
Ben+Al no Jo = 114.3 (84th percentile)
Al+Jo no Ben = 108.4 (31st percentile)
Ben+Al+Jo = 99.3 (3rd percentile)

ORtg is another story and that aspect needs work.

I don’t know if Jimmy Butler, instead of Al, shooting 24% on 3s will work for us either.

Having opponents PF&C (both defending Biid and Ben) and Jimmy’s man, playing zone in the paint would also spell disaster for us on offense.

[76ciology]

Am I wrong?

‪Top 6 3pt shooting centers (makes/%)‬
‪1.) KAT 3.3 41%‬
‪2.) Gasol 1.4 40%‬
‪3.) Baynes 1.4 35%‬
‪4.) Turner 1.4 33%‬
‪5.) Horford 1.5 33%‬
‪6.) Biid 1.3 35%‬

Crazy when you think about how Horford and Biid’s 3pt shooting are already elite for the C position.

Among Cs, Al is 2nd is makes per game. Among PFs (not considering guys like Galo or Roco), Al is around top 6 in makes. In terms of makes and %, his 3pt shooting number alone is comparable to this season’s CP3

KAT’s 3pt shooting is just on another level. He’s like the Steph Curry of centers when it comes to shooting.While the rest only makes around 1.5-1.3 3s a game on league average % at best.

I think most people say the two of them are fine shooters for centers. The issue has been playing them together especially with a non-shooter in Ben.

Offensive rating with
Ben+Jo no Al = 116.6 (93rd percentile)
Ben+Al no Jo = 114.3 (84th percentile)
Al+Jo no Ben = 108.4 (31st percentile)
Ben+Al+Jo = 99.3 (3rd percentile)

ORtg is another story and that aspect needs work.

I don’t know if Jimmy Butler, instead of Al, shooting 24% on 3s will work for us either.

Having opponents PF&C (both defending Biid and Ben) and Jimmy’s man, playing zone in the paint would also spell disaster for us on offense.

The reason i was looking at Biid and Al’s numbers is i was playing a scenario of what if we accept Ben for what he is while Biid became a better 3pt shooter. Would that solve the problem?

If you replace Al with a stretch 4 and retain JJ and go for max spacing you revert back to the 2017-2018 team with Tobi. You basically have one go to option that gives you and edge for mismatch, Biid. Imagine crunch time, all screens are negated and it’s an ISO battle for 3-4 minutes. Opposing team have Baynes or Gasol making it tough for Biid while opponents have Tatum or Hayward attacking our shooters, Tobi, stretch 4 or others.

If you “bring it back”, I don’t know how Ben would feel taking a step back with Jimmy. I also don’t know if we can afford a down year for Jimmy’s shooting.

So what’s the possible options? Work with have right now, a balance of spacing, positionless on defense and potentially multiple go to option. In theory, the most ideal set-up is having KAT instead of Al. But thats not realistic.

Then the next is to trade Ben for a perimeter guy who can shoot and create at will, that will make it a lot easy. You have multiple go to guys, then you instantly have very good spacing with FIVE guys who can shoot 3s.
Maybe i’m missing somethings but i have just advanced to this point. Hahaha too much boredom

[Sixerscan]

Am I wrong?

‪Top 6 3pt shooting centers (makes/%)‬
‪1.) KAT 3.3 41%‬
‪2.) Gasol 1.4 40%‬
‪3.) Baynes 1.4 35%‬
‪4.) Turner 1.4 33%‬
‪5.) Horford 1.5 33%‬
‪6.) Biid 1.3 35%‬

Crazy when you think about how Horford and Biid’s 3pt shooting are already elite for the C position.

Among Cs, Al is 2nd is makes per game. Among PFs (not considering guys like Galo or Roco), Al is around top 6 in makes. In terms of makes and %, his 3pt shooting number alone is comparable to this season’s CP3

KAT’s 3pt shooting is just on another level. He’s like the Steph Curry of centers when it comes to shooting.While the rest only makes around 1.5-1.3 3s a game on league average % at best.

I think most people say the two of them are fine shooters for centers. The issue has been playing them together especially with a non-shooter in Ben.

Offensive rating with
Ben+Jo no Al = 116.6 (93rd percentile)
Ben+Al no Jo = 114.3 (84th percentile)
Al+Jo no Ben = 108.4 (31st percentile)
Ben+Al+Jo = 99.3 (3rd percentile)

ORtg is another story and that aspect needs work.

I don’t know if Jimmy Butler, instead of Al, shooting 24% on 3s will work for us either.

Having opponents PF&C (both defending Biid and Ben) and Jimmy’s man, playing zone in the paint would also spell disaster for us on offense.

I'm not sure what Jimmy has to do with this. He's not on the team now, Al is, and they have to figure out how to make the offense work. The three of them together may still be something you go to sometimes since they are probably your three best defensive players but I don't think it's something you go to for long stretches.

[76ciology]

I think most people say the two of them are fine shooters for centers. The issue has been playing them together especially with a non-shooter in Ben.

Offensive rating with
Ben+Jo no Al = 116.6 (93rd percentile)
Ben+Al no Jo = 114.3 (84th percentile)
Al+Jo no Ben = 108.4 (31st percentile)
Ben+Al+Jo = 99.3 (3rd percentile)

ORtg is another story and that aspect needs work.

I don’t know if Jimmy Butler, instead of Al, shooting 24% on 3s will work for us either.

Having opponents PF&C (both defending Biid and Ben) and Jimmy’s man, playing zone in the paint would also spell disaster for us on offense.

I'm not sure what Jimmy has to do with this. He's not on the team now, Al is, and they have to figure out how to make the offense work. The three of them together may still be something you go to sometimes since they are probably your three best defensive players but I don't think it's something you go to for long stretches.

Yeah i can see that.

I think we can do a better rotations with our guys. Like how GSW did it with their original championship squad back then. With Al playing Iggy’s role.

My whole premise is about is there really a scenario that can make the Biid-Ben duo work? For the mean time, we just have to be creative with our rotations I’d guess. We have a lot of depth and talent, that should be a good problem to have

[tigermars]

ORtg is another story and that aspect needs work.

I don’t know if Jimmy Butler, instead of Al, shooting 24% on 3s will work for us either.

Having opponents PF&C (both defending Biid and Ben) and Jimmy’s man, playing zone in the paint would also spell disaster for us on offense.

I'm not sure what Jimmy has to do with this. He's not on the team now, Al is, and they have to figure out how to make the offense work. The three of them together may still be something you go to sometimes since they are probably your three best defensive players but I don't think it's something you go to for long stretches.

Yeah i can see that.

Ben Joel wings is super ok
Ben Al wings is very ok
AL and Joel not so ok, maybe safe for miss match’
Thhybulle is in 3 and D
Need one more to play with JOel and AL, so match shoot and create plays Richardson not quite that .

Tobi for CP3, and extract some value from Richarson

Joel
Ben
Tobi
Richardson/SHake
CP3

Al; 4/5 sub
Fork,Shakuy on max wing sub
Zhaire smith pg G (-simmnond mins
One more piece

]

[Sixerscan]

ORtg is another story and that aspect needs work.

I don’t know if Jimmy Butler, instead of Al, shooting 24% on 3s will work for us either.

Having opponents PF&C (both defending Biid and Ben) and Jimmy’s man, playing zone in the paint would also spell disaster for us on offense.

I'm not sure what Jimmy has to do with this. He's not on the team now, Al is, and they have to figure out how to make the offense work. The three of them together may still be something you go to sometimes since they are probably your three best defensive players but I don't think it's something you go to for long stretches.

Yeah i can see that.

I think we can do a better rotations with our guys. Like how GSW did it with their original championship squad back then. With Al playing Iggy’s role.

My whole premise is about is there really a scenario that can make the Biid-Ben duo work? For the mean time, we just have to be creative with our rotations I’d guess. We have a lot of depth and talent, that should be a good problem to have

Well I think that data (and similar data from previous years) shows that the two of them can work very well, they just need a lineup around them that makes sense, which Al doesn't seem to unfortunately (offensively at least). 2017-2018 was pretty strong evidence that surrounding the two of them (as basically rookies) with 3 shooters is at the very least a very good regular season offense. 2018-2019 was more of a mess with all the trades and injuries but the end result was a top 10 offense based around the two of them, a creator in Butler and/or 2/3 shooters.

Similarly there's evidence that Harris works great with Simmons and a good center when he gets to play the 4 and it doesn't work as well when he's playing the 3 next to two centers.

2018-2019
Simmons+Harris+Embiid = 118.4 ORTG (96th percentile), +14.3 NetRTG (98th percentile)

2019-2020
Simmons+Harris+Embiid no Horford = 119.2 ORTG (98%), +12 NetRTG (97%)
Simmons+Harris+Horford no Embiid = 115.3 ORTG (89%), +8 NetRTG (91%)
Simmons+Harris+Horford+Embiid = 99.3 ORTG (3%), +0.6 NetRTG (56%)

As you can guess, the net rating for the 4 together is somewhat saved by the DRTG being excellent, in the 99th percentile, which is a reason to at least keep the lineup in the rotation somewhat, just not something you should be playing for huge stretches.

This is all relatively small sample size (though for example Simmons+Harris+Horford no Embiid is over 1600 possessions), but it's also a pretty stark difference and matches what most of us would say tracks with what we're seeing on the court watching this team play together. This team has the basic outline of an effective offense it's not with Horford playing the 4 unfortunately.

I am generally pretty supportive of Brown and assuming he felt pressure for a variety of reasons to make Simmons/Horford/Embiid work together, but if we're in a tough playoff series and they're struggling to score points and they're still trotting out the Horford/Embiid frontcourt for huge stretches of the game that's a pretty strong argument that they need to bring in a new voice. Like this is pretty basic data that I am sure is front and center with every conversation the coaching staff has about the team. It's one thing to play politics during the regular season but when it gets to do or die time you need to play lineups that work.

[76ciology]

I'm not sure what Jimmy has to do with this. He's not on the team now, Al is, and they have to figure out how to make the offense work. The three of them together may still be something you go to sometimes since they are probably your three best defensive players but I don't think it's something you go to for long stretches.

Yeah i can see that.

I think we can do a better rotations with our guys. Like how GSW did it with their original championship squad back then. With Al playing Iggy’s role.

My whole premise is about is there really a scenario that can make the Biid-Ben duo work? For the mean time, we just have to be creative with our rotations I’d guess. We have a lot of depth and talent, that should be a good problem to have

Well I think that data (and similar data from previous years) shows that the two of them can work very well, they just need a lineup around them that makes sense, which Al doesn't seem to unfortunately (offensively at least). 2017-2018 was pretty strong evidence that surrounding the two of them (as basically rookies) with 3 shooters is at the very least a very good regular season offense. 2018-2019 was more of a mess with all the trades and injuries but the end result was a top 10 offense based around the two of them, a creator in Butler and/or 2/3 shooters.

Similarly there's evidence that Harris works great with Simmons and a good center when he gets to play the 4 and it doesn't work as well when he's playing the 3 next to two centers.

2018-2019
Simmons+Harris+Embiid = 118.4 ORTG (96th percentile), +14.3 NetRTG (98th percentile)

2019-2020
Simmons+Harris+Embiid no Horford = 119.2 ORTG (98%), +12 NetRTG (97%)
Simmons+Harris+Horford no Embiid = 115.3 ORTG (89%), +8 NetRTG (91%)
Simmons+Harris+Horford+Embiid = 99.3 ORTG (3%), +0.6 NetRTG (56%)

As you can guess, the net rating for the 4 together is somewhat saved by the DRTG being excellent, in the 99th percentile, which is a reason to at least keep the lineup in the rotation somewhat, just not something you should be playing for huge stretches.

This is all relatively small sample size (though for example Simmons+Harris+Horford no Embiid is over 1600 possessions), but it's also a pretty stark difference and matches what most of us would say tracks with what we're seeing on the court watching this team play together. This team has the basic outline of an effective offense it's not with Horford playing the 4 unfortunately.

I am generally pretty supportive of Brown and assuming he felt pressure for a variety of reasons to make Simmons/Horford/Embiid work together, but if we're in a tough playoff series and they're struggling to score points and they're still trotting out the Horford/Embiid frontcourt for huge stretches of the game that's a pretty strong argument that they need to bring in a new voice. Like this is pretty basic data that I am sure is front and center with every conversation the coaching staff has about the team. It's one thing to play politics during the regular season but when it gets to do or die time you need to play lineups that work.

Totally agree.

Its crazy when you think how Brett’s coaching will play a big role in this “bubble” tournament, and it’s fitting given how much of this is at the line for him.

[Wilfried]

I'm really really NOT shocked to finally see the numbers and acknowledge that we got Horford as a back-up for Embiid, and not as a stretch-4, which he isn't, as we all know.

We can go and argue if it was a good thing to throw that kind of money to a back-up, but given the history and conditioning problems Joel has had, ... I can see why they decided to go for him.

The line-up with him as a center is still a good one.

[Mik317]

Jo and Al are fine in terms of modern day bigman shooters.

the issue continues to be that this squad is full of mediocre, bad or unwilling shooters..so we need them to be prime Dirk lol

[Negrodamus]

Read on Twitter

That's a relief.

[sixers hoops]

Read on Twitter

That's a relief.

Just mentioned by Rich Hoffman too. This was my biggest gripe with Brown, using the guy that has no perimeter game to initiate the offense from the perimeter. Now Ben can still run the point off the break, but allow someone who has to be guarded to initiate the offense from the perimeter. Ben is dynamic and will still have a lot of opportunities to handle the ball, but I love Shake being the primary ball handler in the half court.

[sixers hoops]

He mentioned Ben will play the 4. Is not sure which forward position he and Tobias are best suited for, but I believe I heard Larry Brown mention that he thought Tobias needs to guard fours. Brett has said he is not a big fan of cross-switching matchups.

I think long term we need to replace Josh with a high level shooter at the two, but this lineup still works for me short-term.

[Mik317]

being that guy but the fact that our season hangs on the balance of a former 55 pick and our best shooter is a dude we were going to let walk...is pretty sad no?

[Negrodamus]

being that guy but the fact that our season hangs on the balance of a former 55 pick and our best shooter is a dude we were going to let walk...is pretty sad no?

I wouldn’t say it hangs in the balance of Shake, but he is an important role player for this team, especially when Tobias isn’t producing. The championship will be won on Embiid’s and Simmons’s shoulders. Shake just happens to fit better than Horford.

[youngcrev]

He mentioned Ben will play the 4. Is not sure which forward position he and Tobias are best suited for, but I believe I heard Larry Brown mention that he thought Tobias needs to guard fours. Brett has said he is not a big fan of cross-switching matchups.

I think long term we need to replace Josh with a high level shooter at the two, but this lineup still works for me short-term.

Things get convoluted when you try to put people into the box of a certain position on this team (aside from Joel). Seems like they'll have Ben doing more off ball, PF type stuff than he was. I imagine what position he defends will be matchup dependent.

[Sixerscan]

He mentioned Ben will play the 4. Is not sure which forward position he and Tobias are best suited for, but I believe I heard Larry Brown mention that he thought Tobias needs to guard fours. Brett has said he is not a big fan of cross-switching matchups.

I think long term we need to replace Josh with a high level shooter at the two, but this lineup still works for me short-term.

Even if Ben is playing the 4 I feel like teams will still cover him with a 3 to handle the transition threat.

Ben has cross matched a bunch over the years I feel like? It was more a concern with someone like Okafor instead of a smart elite defender Like Ben.

[Mik317]

still not sure how taking Ben off ball makes much sense if he is not going to take jumpers.

PNR with him as the roller is interesting but that will also mean EMbiid has to space more.

idk but I am glad they are trying something.