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Playoff Rotation

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Playoff Rotation 

Post#1 » by TTP » Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:09 am

Tonight was the first time we've had everyone healthy since the trade deadline, and I believe we got our first look at the playoff rotation. Here's the order our guys came into the game tonight and likely how things would look if the playoffs started tomorrow:

Starters

1- Simmons
2- Curry
3 - Green
4 - Harris
5 - Embiid

Bench

6- Hill
7- Thybulle
8- Milton
9- Howard
10- Korkmaz

Will only get minutes through injuries or foul trouble: Scott, Maxey

I think we might run a 10 man rotation in the first round, but I'm guessing we go down to 9 in tougher matchups, with Furkan only coming in as a specialist if we need offense, or to shake things up if someone else isn't playing well. It speaks a lot to how great our depth is this year because Furkan is good enough to get significant minutes on most playoff teams. If he outplays Shake going forward, it's possible he and Shake swap places, but Shake has been playing ahead of him all season. I was curious if the addition of George Hill might change that, but Shake was still handling the ball a lot tonight in our bench units.

If you had asked me a few weeks ago, I would have said that Matisse, Shake, and Furkan would all be battling for bench minutes, but it looks like Matisse is locked into a spot now. His value will grow as we get deeper into the playoffs, and we've been using him more and more as a small ball 4 in bench units. He's such a versatile defender, both on and off-ball, and he's gotten to the point where he's not cratering our offense.

What will our closing lineup look like? I'm guessing Hill plays over Curry in crunch time, but given that tonight's game wasn't close, this question remains unanswered.
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Re: Playoff Rotation 

Post#2 » by ivysixer2000 » Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:38 am

I can agree with that, it will depend on our matchups in the playoffs of course....which is hard to predict.

I can see some matchups with playoff teams where Hill should play more than Curry. It will be on Doc to notice that tread before its too late.

Everything depends on what's happening on the floor, which is why coaches get paid the big bucks. 8 man rotations could happen if we advance further, with Thybulle and Korkmaz eliminated from the rotation.

Doc has some decisions to make cause if we want to win IMO, its 8 maybe 9 guys, depending on the matchup.
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Re: Playoff Rotation 

Post#3 » by ivysixer2000 » Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:50 am

BTW, I can see the best 7 being.....Ben, Curry, Green, Tobi, Jojo, Hill, and Shake, getting mins. Weird to include Hill in that, but he's more consistent than the rest with more experience.

The rest depends on matchups, play Thybulle, Kork, and Dwight depending on what we need to advance. Course Dwight might have to play, so that will limit Thybulle and Kork even more.
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Re: Playoff Rotation 

Post#4 » by sixers4real » Thu Apr 29, 2021 3:06 am

That’s what i predicted two weeks ago, about playoff rotations in the other thread.

C - Embiid / Howard
F - Harris / Simmons
F - Green / Thybulle
G - Hill / Milton / Curry(9th man)
G - Simmons / Milton

There is no doubt Doc will start Curry game 1 of the first round, but once teams take advantage of him defensively, I can see Curry being almost out of the rotation.
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Re: Playoff Rotation 

Post#5 » by Kolkmania » Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:41 am

Feels weird to have a ton of options off the bench. In the non-starter minutes we should alternate between Embiid-centered lineups and Harris-centered lineups and hope that they can provide enough efficient offense in the half court.

Hope that we can find some rotation with Harris and Simmons as our two biggest guys, with a ton of shooting around them. Would be a nice weapon for some short stretches. Perhaps Hill - Milton - Green - Simmons - Harris.

We need an alternative for non-Howard minutes when Embiid is off the court. Don't think that Scott/Tolliver provide that.
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Re: Playoff Rotation 

Post#6 » by PhillyNj » Thu Apr 29, 2021 12:23 pm

I don’t understand all the love Milton gets. I think he’s flat out bad.
My rotation would be:
Pg. Simmons 24 mins. / Hill 24 mins
Sg. Curry 30mins. / Thybulle 14mins.
Sf. Greeen 30mins. / Thybulle 18 mins.
Pf Harris 35 mins. /Simmons 13 mins.
C. Embiidi 33 mins./ Howard 15 mins.

Korkmaz could get mins for offense
Toliver could get some mins in certain situations.
I don’t see any reason to play Maxes unless someone is hurt.
Shake doesn’t deserve any playoff mins.
Scott shouldn’t get any mins.
Sixer should sweep there first round opponent if they finish in first.
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Re: Playoff Rotation 

Post#7 » by LloydFree » Thu Apr 29, 2021 12:42 pm

TTP wrote:Tonight was the first time we've had everyone healthy since the trade deadline, and I believe we got our first look at the playoff rotation. Here's the order our guys came into the game tonight and likely how things would look if the playoffs started tomorrow:

Starters

1- Simmons
2- Curry
3 - Green
4 - Harris
5 - Embiid

Bench

6- Hill
7- Thybulle
8- Milton
9- Howard
10- Korkmaz

Will only get minutes through injuries or foul trouble: Scott, Maxey

Spoiler:
I think we might run a 10 man rotation in the first round, but I'm guessing we go down to 9 in tougher matchups, with Furkan only coming in as a specialist if we need offense, or to shake things up if someone else isn't playing well. It speaks a lot to how great our depth is this year because Furkan is good enough to get significant minutes on most playoff teams. If he outplays Shake going forward, it's possible he and Shake swap places, but Shake has been playing ahead of him all season. I was curious if the addition of George Hill might change that, but Shake was still handling the ball a lot tonight in our bench units.

If you had asked me a few weeks ago, I would have said that Matisse, Shake, and Furkan would all be battling for bench minutes, but it looks like Matisse is locked into a spot now. His value will grow as we get deeper into the playoffs, and we've been using him more and more as a small ball 4 in bench units. He's such a versatile defender, both on and off-ball, and he's gotten to the point where he's not cratering our offense.

What will our closing lineup look like? I'm guessing Hill plays over Curry in crunch time, but given that tonight's game wasn't close, this question remains unanswered.


Last night's rotation through the first 3 quarters was telling. It was very interesting how few minutes Shake Milton played thru 3 quarters and Mike Scott only playing garbage time.

The first 7 (the starters plus Hill and Thybulle) are in stone. After that, everybody else plays based on matchup. Hill is better than Curry, but Doc isn't going to change the Starting Lineup this late in the season. If healthy, George Hill will play more minutes than Curry and finish playoff games. Thybulle is necessary for defensive matchups against good teams.

Everybody else is either matchup dependant or whether they are playing well in particular series. Dwight won't play against certain teams. Shake will have to play very well in the first round, in order to stay in the lineup. Furkan is in the same boat.

*** Scott and Maxey won't play at all, unless there are multiple injuries or ridiculous foul trouble.
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Re: Playoff Rotation 

Post#8 » by 76ciology » Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:08 pm

Fun facts:

Our best 5 man unit:
Seth
Shake
Tobi
Ben
Biid
13 games +50.7NetRtg
*I see Ghill replacing Seth on this 5 man unit in crucial stretches in the playoffs.

Our best non-Biid and Ben unit:
Shake
Thybulle
Kork
Tobi
D12
22 games +12NetRtg
*I see GHill replacing Kork on this 5 man unit if this unit have a hard time generating offense. Then if that still wont work, I can see Kork replacing Thybulle.
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Re: Playoff Rotation 

Post#9 » by Negrodamus » Thu Apr 29, 2021 3:15 pm

Man, in the top 4 lineups this season in terms of Points minus Opponent Points, the common denominator is Embiid, Harris, and.... Seth Curry. I don't know the circumstances behind it, but Seth usually drives me nuts when he's on the court. I'd be interested to see what the strongest lineups are against playoff teams during this regular season.
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Re: Playoff Rotation 

Post#10 » by SixthStreet » Thu Apr 29, 2021 3:26 pm

I think it'll be an 8 man rotation in the playoffs. Starters and Hill, Thybulle, and Howard. I think Rivers will just extend Simmons and Hill's minutes so he doesn't have to play Shake and Korkmaz is mostly in case of emergency. Howard will be in the rotation because Doc hasn't gone back to the Simmons at the 5 lineup after experimenting a little with it earlier in the year. I think he's decided against it for this run.
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Re: Playoff Rotation 

Post#11 » by Negrodamus » Thu Apr 29, 2021 3:33 pm

I love the Shake hate after a night where he shot 30% of the teams free throws, probably one of the biggest indicators of a player deserving playoff minutes.

FTr of players that get meaningful minutes this year:

Dwight: .725
Embiid: .626
Ben: .519
Shake: .270
Tobi: .228

When the shots aren't falling (which happens frequently for us), the only way to score points is at the line. That will ring especially true in the playoffs.
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Re: Playoff Rotation 

Post#12 » by Murray_17 » Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:15 pm

Negrodamus wrote:I love the Shake hate after a night where he shot 30% of the teams free throws, probably one of the biggest indicators of a player deserving playoff minutes.



He's also a pure "score guy" who is shooting at 54.6% TS this season and 51.1% TS the last 10 games.

He's gonna see a lot of minutes in the playoffs because he's our designated sixth man and Doc loves him but his efficiency has been decreasing fast while playing against bench units. That's a bad sign in general, he's kind of becoming our own Jamal Crawford.

About our rotation, i think we saw a solid signal today

Read on Twitter


Matisse is gonna become the default Tobi replacement from the bench and we're probably take Scott out of the rotation.

LloydFree wrote:Last night's rotation through the first 3 quarters was telling. It was very interesting how few minutes Shake Milton played thru 3 quarters and Mike Scott only playing garbage time.



He got 3 fouls in less than 3 minutes so he missed the entire second quarter. Doc see Shake as the sixth man of the team, so i don't see how that is gonna change on the playoffs.

I think his role should get reduced too
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Re: Playoff Rotation 

Post#13 » by Negrodamus » Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:45 pm

Sorry, but if we're to have any chance at making it out of the East, much less winning the whole thing, we need Shake to be playing and playing well. Reducing his minutes means that we're relying on another non-shot creator/non-foul drawing guard to play more minutes. Like it or not, Shake is one of the keys to our playoff success unless Embiid plans on playing like 00s Cleveland LeBron James and carries us by himself.
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Re: Playoff Rotation 

Post#14 » by SixthStreet » Thu Apr 29, 2021 5:24 pm

Shake makes too many boneheaded fouls and mental lapses on his own man and rotations on defense to play much in deeper rounds. All the other wings/guards are more reliable on that end.
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Re: Playoff Rotation 

Post#15 » by Negrodamus » Thu Apr 29, 2021 5:40 pm

15ppg in last year's playoffs (his first playoffs), probably our second most efficient scorer in that series.

I understand you all are discouraged by his poor play in the dog days of this season, but I can promise you, his contribution is more important than anyone not named Embiid, Simmons, and Harris. We know we have defenders on this teams; we decidedly lack efficient scorers.
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Re: Playoff Rotation 

Post#16 » by phillynative » Thu Apr 29, 2021 5:42 pm

Shake has some scoring ability ability and a solid passer but his handles are not good enough. We acquired Hill to share the ball handling role which was a solid mood. Im still worried because there is still no one on this roster that can consistently break down the defense and get their own shot off the peremiter.
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Re: Playoff Rotation 

Post#17 » by TTP » Thu Apr 29, 2021 6:09 pm

LloydFree wrote:
Last night's rotation through the first 3 quarters was telling. It was very interesting how few minutes Shake Milton played thru 3 quarters and Mike Scott only playing garbage time.


Shake picked up three quick fouls. He would have played more minutes otherwise.
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Re: Playoff Rotation 

Post#18 » by TTP » Thu Apr 29, 2021 6:35 pm

Murray_17 wrote:
Negrodamus wrote:I love the Shake hate after a night where he shot 30% of the teams free throws, probably one of the biggest indicators of a player deserving playoff minutes.



He's also a pure "score guy" who is shooting at 54.6% TS this season and 51.1% TS the last 10 games.

He's gonna see a lot of minutes in the playoffs because he's our designated sixth man and Doc loves him but his efficiency has been decreasing fast while playing against bench units. That's a bad sign in general, he's kind of becoming our own Jamal Crawford.


I don't agree with this take.

54.6% TS on 25.2% usage isn't bad at all for a scoring guard. That's not far off Lou Williams' career average and he's been one of the premier 6th men in the NBA the last 15 years.

Saying he's becoming Jamal Crawford is just a bad comp. Jamal Crawford was considerably less efficient for his career than that, and Shake provides more value off-ball as well.

We should be pumping minutes into Shake. He's only 24 with his best years ahead of him and has basically only played one season worth of minutes. For his career, he has a 56.1% TS on above average usage, an ability to score at all 3 levels as well as get to the line, and a very long wingspan. He just checks a lot of boxes of valuable NBA skills. He's also one of the only guys on the team that played well in that garbage playoff series last year.
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Re: Playoff Rotation 

Post#19 » by LloydFree » Thu Apr 29, 2021 6:46 pm

SixthStreet wrote:Shake makes too many boneheaded fouls and mental lapses on his own man and rotations on defense to play much in deeper rounds. All the other wings/guards are more reliable on that end.

...And lately, he's made constant mistakes on the Offensive end, at the end of the shot clock and at the end of quarters in clock management.

I like Shake, but I don't think he will be trusted in close playoff games, by the current staff. Last year was last year. They are going to go by what they've seen lately.
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Re: Playoff Rotation 

Post#20 » by 76ciology » Fri Apr 30, 2021 8:18 am

If it’s Brett Brown, I’d be confident to say Seth and Shake will end games for us down the stretch.

I do think with Doc, it will depend on variables like match-ups and hot hand.

Kork is a guy I believe is flying under the radar when it comes to guys playing with a big role off the bench.

I believe that Ghill will be part of the 5 man unit ending games. And I do believe Doc also see upside on a potential Shake-GHill backcourt and do think this pairing is the best (GHill-Seth is struggling) but I haven’t seen a 5 man unit playing well with GHill nor have GHill prove to me so far that he is that good for me to guarantee him a part of my 5 man unit down the stretch.

A GHill-Green backcourt is also a good possibility. While a GHill-Kork has some possibility. And unless we really need offense or if Seth is shooting like his brother, I dont see Seth as part of our 5 man unit down the stretch.

Here’s something to think about. With atleast 220mins, our best 3 man unit is Shake-Ben-Biid. That said, I’d expect Shake to be part of our 5 man unit down the stretch. He currently plays the Lou Will role for our team.

These all could change as we progress.
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