ProcessDoctor wrote:Real talk: what contract would you offer Harden?
$1 more than he'd get elsewhere?
Unfortunately, Harden is no longer worthy of a max contract. Money-wise, all the 'value' players are max players who are actually worth way more than the max or rookies on contracts that underpay them. By comparison, all other veterans are overpriced. Harden may actually get the max.
I think he's worth anywhere from $25-35m this year, and declining value going forward. Unfortunately, if we don't pay him the $35m (high end of what he's worth), we can't spend that $35m on anyone else anyway. So I'd probably start at $35m, and then have max depreciation each year for 4 years. Or add a 5th year while adding another $15m to the total value of the contract. 5th year as a player option.
4yrs/$124.7m
23-24: $35.4m (age 34)
24-25: $32.6m (age 35)
25-26: $29.7m (age 36)
26-27: $26.9m (age 37)
OR
5yrs/$139.3m
23-24: $33.2m
24-25: $30.5m
25-26: $27.8m
26-27: $25.2m
27-28: $22.5m (player option - age 38 season)
That feels a bit high to me, but I don't think it's an unmovable contract if things go bad here and we decide to blow it up. I think a 'fair' price would be about $5m less per year. At $10m less per year I'd be really happy to have him back. But we're in a bad spot. I think we'd have to either pay numbers like what's above or watch him walk somewhere else.
And it's possible that I'm way off and he'd actually merit a max contract. That sounds crazy, though.