As Goes Niang, So Go the Sixers

[Ferry Avenue]

Including the playoffs, Georges Niang has played in 148 games for the Sixers. That's a fairly large sample of play from which to take a look at his effect on the team.

As we all know, his primary role is as a 3-point shooter off the bench. One might think perhaps that in that role he has but a minimal effect on the team's fortunes.

Nowhere near the case, however.

The Sixers have won 93 of the 148 games in which Niang has played, and lost 55 of them.

In their wins, Niang has shot an average of 45% from three. In their losses, he's shot but 29%. The degree of variation from those averages is not significantly different as a function of wins or losses -- he varies from three just as much in wins as he does in losses.

That difference in his average 3-point shooting percentage is statistically significant at less than a 0.001 probability level, meaning that there is greater than a 99.9% probability that Niang's three-point shooting has a systematic effect -- as opposed to a random one -- on the Sixers' wins and losses.

Take last night for example. The Sixers pulled off the Herculean feat of ending the Bucks' 16-game win streak on their own home floor in a weekend national TV game. Niang shot 5 for 6 from three -- 83%.

In the two most recent games against good teams in which he played -- Boston and Miami, both losses -- Niang shot 0 for 2 and 0 for 2 from three.

Now, of course there will be exceptions to the rule under both conditions -- games can easily be found in which Niang shoots well in a loss, as well as ones in which he shoots poorly in a win.

Inevitable exceptions to the rule notwithstanding, the overall and very strong effect remains, however -- the Sixers' fortunes are improved a great deal by Niang's effective 3-point shooting. That's indisputable.

[Skates]

What is indisputable is that as much as many, including myself, love Niang and appreciate what he does in the regular season, the team's failure to acquire a two-way role player that can catch fire from three with some regularity has been its undoing. Danny Green and Niang have been those guys the last few years and while Green at least had defensive instincts left over from his younger days as a top wing defender, Niang tries hard but simply can't defend. We have other guys who can hit a three at decent clips and defend, but other than Melton occasionally going off the rest are higher percentage, but low volume three-point shooters. Since Niang is near unplayable against teams loaded on the wing with length and athleticism, past the first round we are screwed unless Deanthony goes on a consistent tear or Danuel House suddenly comes to life.

If only we had someone like, hmm, Isiah Joe who was developing into at least a passable defender.

[Ferry Avenue]

What is indisputable is that as much as many, including myself, love Niang and appreciate what he does in the regular season, the team's failure to acquire a two-way role player that can catch fire from three with some regularity has been its undoing. Danny Green and Niang have been those guys the last few years and while Green at least had defensive instincts left over from his younger days as a top wing defender, Niang tries hard but simply can't defend. We have other guys who can hit a three at decent clips and defend, but other than Melton occasionally going off the rest are higher percentage, but low volume three-point shooters. Since Niang is near unplayable against teams loaded on the wing with length and athleticism, past the first round we are screwed unless Deanthony goes on a consistent tear or Danuel House suddenly comes to life.

If only we had someone like, hmm, Isiah Joe who was developing into at least a passable defender.

It’s entirely possible that the effect described above in terms of wins and losses as a function of Niang‘s shooting occurs because the Sixers are in a far greater position to win if Niang‘s offensive contribution is such that it outweighs and offsets his defensive ineptitude.

When he has a poor game offensively, it could be exactly that combined with his poor defense that loses the game.

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

I can agree with this original theory. Since he's gotten here, it's been evident that when he is making shots, we usually do win or at least are in a great position to win. Go back to the Denver game when we beat them at home. We were getting flogged in the third quarter and he hit a big time three that he literally just heaved at the basket with the shotclock expiring. He went on to hit a few more in that game and we came out on top. Momentum has been big time for us either way this year. Maybe it's always been this way, but I've noticed more this year than in the past. Niang hitting threes is a big time momentum shift in our favor when it happens. When it doesn't happen and he's bricking shots and getting cooked on defense it causes us to dig deeper into the bag of options we have to either swing the game or keep the lead. Niang is absolutely very important to us in that aspect. He has to be making shots in order for us to have a better chance at winning games.

[Kobblehead]

He's basically our newer iteration of Saric except with more of a SF leaning game. He's got a penchant for big shots and he's got great team spirit.

[Jailblazers7]

If this is true, then we’re f*cked lol

[Embiid P]

It's simple. Aside from Maxey when he comes off the bench, Niang is far and away our best bench scorer. Since our team often hemorrhages when Embiid is on the bench, when Niang is on fire, he acts as a tourniquet to stop the bleeding. Thus more often then not, we win in that case.

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

Shake is actually our bench player if Maxey is starting. He's just phased out at the moment.

[NYSixersFan]

If this is true, then we’re f*cked lol

Exactly. This is depressing.

[PhillyFan11]

Not sure if this has more to do with Niang being good when he’s on, or how bad he is when he’s off. Having a guy play 20 mins and contribute very little on defense and not be able to make open shots would kill any team

[GoSixersBro]

Niang would be a top bench player in the league if he actually hit the gym. Idk what else can motivate a guy beyond millions of dollars and a chance at a championship.

[Mik317]

and that is one of the bigger issues with this roster and has been for a while now lol.

Danny was also too important for us.

We carry too many reluctant or slow shooters so dudes who will just let them thangs go stand out even more. PJ only shoots in the corner and needs a week of time to get his shot off and Tobias simply doesn't like doing it. Defenses realize this and thus know they can cheat off and still might be able to recover to contest. Niang (and formerly Mr First Option) doesn't allow for that even if they are off. Maxey and Melton have been more willing to chuck so its not a total **** show but with the gravity Biid and Harden has you need everyone to be someone defenses have to think about leaving

[phillynative]

Yea this is not a good thing lol

[Zumramania]

and that is one of the bigger issues with this roster and has been for a while now lol.

Danny was also too important for us.

We carry too many reluctant or slow shooters so dudes who will just let them thangs go stand out even more. PJ only shoots in the corner and needs a week of time to get his shot off and Tobias simply doesn't like doing it. Defenses realize this and thus know they can cheat off and still might be able to recover to contest. Niang (and formerly Mr First Option) doesn't allow for that even if they are off. Maxey and Melton have been more willing to chuck so its not a total **** show but with the gravity Biid and Harden has you need everyone to be someone defenses have to think about leaving

This is because Tobias is not a great three point shooter, his overall percentage somehow masks this. He adapted his shooting so that 91% of three pointers that he took this season are catch and shoot, but he hits 37.6% of them. The rest of his three point attempts are pull ups after one or two dribbles and he hits 46.2% of them. Almost all of his three point shot attempts this season are either open (37% of them) or wide open (57% of them). He hits 37.4% open threes and only 37.7% wide open threes.

If he shot more threes, he'd hit less, so I don't know if that's a good idea.

https://www.nba.com/stats/player/202699/shots-dash

[bball4life]

As long as I can remember, the Sixers have always had a 3p shooter who was terrible defensively and ultimately kills them in the playoffs. From Kyle Korver to Belinelli To Reddick to Niang and a few other examples along the way.

So, yeah, I feel about Niang exactly how I feel about Reddick. Unless they are shooting lights out, they are a serious net negative when on the floor. Against a team like Boston Niang will get hunted relentlessly in the playoffs. In other words, unplayable, unless maybe he's shooting 60%+ from three which isn't realistic.

[phillynative]

I like niang but we need more 2 way players

[GoSixersBro]

As long as I can remember, the Sixers have always had a 3p shooter who was terrible defensively and ultimately kills them in the playoffs. From Kyle Korver to Belinelli To Reddick to Niang and a few other examples along the way.

So, yeah, I feel about Niang exactly how I feel about Reddick. Unless they are shooting lights out, they are a serious net negative when on the floor. Against a team like Boston Niang will get hunted relentlessly in the playoffs. In other words, unplayable, unless maybe he's shooting 60%+ from three which isn't realistic.

At least Redick caught fire and averaged career highs in PPG to go along with 3 3PM per in his two seasons. The defense was bad but he got his and was clutch.

I get your point but I wouldn't put him in the same breath as Niang who isn't contributing even half of Redick's scoring this year.

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

Niang has been a great contributor for us these last two years. Hopefully we can keep him around. He's bound to hit a big shot in the playoffs at some point for us if he can actually stay out there on the floor. If we do end up moving on from him, I have complete trust in Morey that he will find us another bomber like Niang. I'd rather keep him, but I do have faith that Morey knows what he's doing.

[Monix]

terrific addition by Morey, has been nails for the 6ers

absolutely maximizes his role

[76ciology]

If Niang is in a slump, then someone has to step up. We’re not lacking for any scoring.

I wish Tucker can just play pick and pop on top of the key than just standing in the corner or doing illegal screens to free up corner shooters